rog 12 w3 2011 federal election_debate questions v2

8/7/2019 ROG 12 W3 2011 Federal Election_Debate Questions v2

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Macleans Election Survey Series

2011 Federal Election: the Debates

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The online survey was conducted among current members of INNOVATIVEsCanada 20/20 panel on April 13th after the end of the debate and April 14th, 2011.

The Canada 20/20 Panel is recruited from a wide variety of sources to berepresentative of the known distribution of Canadians by age, gender, region andlanguage.

Each survey is administered to a series of randomly selected sub samples of thepanel and weighted according to Census data to ensure that the sample isrepresentative of the age, gender, region and language breakdown of the Canadianpopulation to provide results that are intended to approximate a probability sample.

Each panellist is provided with a unique URL in their invitation so that only invitedpanel members are able to complete any specific survey. Each URL can only beused to complete one survey.

The weighted total sample included 1058 responses eligible for inclusion in ouranalysis including 249 in Quebec. Of this sample, 923 watched the debatesincluding 435 watching the English only, 72 the French only and 192 both.

An unweighted probability sample of 1058 would have an estimated margin of errorof 2.16 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error would belarger within each sub-grouping of the sample.

Methodology


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When we measure the leaders against themselves in terms ofexpectations, Layton did best in English while Ignatieff did best inQuebec. Harper appears to have gained ground in English and lost

ground in Quebec. Duceppe was the reverse When we measure the leaders against each other, Harper won in

English with Layton a clear second while Duceppe won in French.

Within their voting bases, Harper did the best with his basefollowed by Duceppe and then Layton.

Within the base of current Liberal voters, Ignatieff was seen as the

winner by just 32% while Layton was seen to win by 21%. Laytonalso clearly won the Green vote and led Harper in the undecided.


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28%

25%

44%

11%

58%

37%

49%

57%

15%

38%

7%

32%

Stephen

Harper

Michael

Ignatieff

Jack Layton

Gilles Duceppe

Better The Same Worse

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4%

43%

30%

27%

57%

31%

56%

61%

39%

26%

14%

13%

Stephen

Harper

Michael

Ignatieff

Jack Layton

Gilles Duceppe


19%

45%

44%

17%

57%

28%

49%

60%

24%

27%

7%

23%

Stephen

Harper

Michael

Ignatieff

Jack Layton

Gilles Duceppe



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2 78% 4% 5% 2% 7% 17%

1% 32% 6% 10% 4% 6%

# 6% 21% 57% 10% 33% 25%

1% 8% 9% 67% 13% 8%$))%)) 6% 15% 10% 6% 7% 12%

9% 20% 13% 6% 36% 33%


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rog 12 w3 2011 federal election_debate questions v2

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