rodman renshaw report on amln 5 14-12

For definitions and the distribution of analyst ratings, and other disclosures, please refer to pages 8 - 9 of this report.

®

May 14, 2012

Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AMLN)COMPANY UPDATE

LIFE SCIENCES

Market Underperform / SpeculativeRisk

Michael G. King, Jr.212-430-1794

[email protected]

Bydureon Posts Flat NRx Market Share, While GLP-1 TRx Grow Over 5% Sequentially

MARKET DATA 5/11/2012

Price $25.86Exchange NASDAQTarget Price $22.0052 Wk Hi - Low $26.87 - $8.03Market Cap(MM) $4,211.4EV(MM) $5,581.0Shares Out (MM) 162.9Public Mkt Float (MM) 1,617.8Avg. Daily Vol 4,123,688Short Interest 10,496,372

BALANCE SHEET METRICS

Cash (MM) $204.1LTD (MM) $714.8Total Debt/Capital NACash/Share $1.39Book Value(MM) NABook Value/Share $0.05

EARNINGS DATA ($)

FY - Dec 2010A 2011A 2012EQ1 (Mar) (0.27) (0.26) (0.66)AQ2 (Jun) (0.31) (0.22) (0.51)Q3 (Sep) (0.35) (0.09) (0.44)Q4 (Dec) (0.13) (3.16) (0.40)Full Year EPS (1.06) (3.73) (2.03)Revenue (MM) 669.0 650.7 624.9

VALUATION METRICS

Price/Earnings NM NM NMEV/Revenue 8.3x 8.6x 8.9xY/Y EPS Growth 251.9% NMEV/Sales

INDICES

DJIA 12,820.6SP-500 1,353.4NASDAQ 2,616.0NBI 1,313.5

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Updated GLP-1 Rx data for the week ending May 4th

. Wolters-Kluwerreported that there were 3,332 new starts (NRx) on Bydureon for theweek of April 28

thto May 4

th(week 12 of the launch). On an absolute

basis, new starts were up 3.4% from the previous week’s total of 3,224.However, Bydureon NRx market shares was flat at 11.0%, as the entireGLP-1 class had its largest sequential rise in NRx in more than twomonths, rising to 30,388 NRx from 29,220 the previous week. This isalso an all-time high for the class in terms of NRx.

NRx for the overall exenatide franchise rose again for the thirdconsecutive week. Exenatide NRx grew 3.6% this week, building uponlast week’s of 3.8% to rise to 13,746 NRx. Exenatide NRx market sharerose dipped marginally to 45.2% from 45.4%. Table 1 details thecomparison of NRx results for the week compared to the 4-week movingaverages prior to the launch. Figures 1 and 2 detail the NRx figures andmarket share.

Exenatide total Rx (TRx) market share rises above ~45%. Werecommend investors focus on total Rx (TRx) as the key metric, as itrelates directly to revenues, to judge the exenatide franchise. Bydureonposted TRx of 5,155, up 8.6% from last week’s total of 4,746. TRxmarket share rose modestly to 6.9% from 6.8%. Byetta TRx was 28,314up 7% from last week’s results of to 26,379, however, still well below thehigh of ~30,000 weekly Byetta TRx earlier this year. TRx market sharefor the exenatide franchise rose to 44.9% from 44.2%, as the franchisebuilt upon last week’s gains. TRx for the entire GLP-1 class was 74,481,up 5.9% from 70,363, and the highest total weekly total since the launchof Byetta. Table 2 details the comparison of TRx results for the weekcompared to the 4-week moving averages prior to the launch. Wecompare the Bydureon launch to Victoza on the following page.

Bydureon fails to gain any ground on Victoza launch. In order tocompare the relative launches of Bydureon and Victoza, we pulled theweekly Rx statistics from Victoza two years ago (Figure 3 and Table 5).Despite the GLP-1 market growing some 20% in the two years since thelaunch of Victoza, the absolute NRx (3,332) generated by Bydureon is41% lower than that achieved by Victoza (5,686) at the same point in therespective launches.

We maintain our Market Underperform rating and a $22 target. Wecontinue to believe our skepticism is justified given the company’s historyof poor execution and the most recent quarter’s fair-to-middling (in ouropinion) results. We continue to believe the exenatide franchise isunwanted by those who already have a presence in the diabetes spaceand a sub-optimal set of assets for those companies to gain a presencein the diabetes/metabolic disease space. In our opinion, AMLNmanagement would have done well to accept the BMY offer of $22 pershare; justifying our price target on the shares.

2RODMAN & RENSHAW EQUITY RESEARCH

Figure 1. NRx Absolute Figures by Week

Figure 2. NRx Market Share by Week

Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. May 14, 2012


Figure 3. Comparison of Victoza and Bydureon Launches (Absolute NRx)

Figure 4. Absolute TRx by Week



Table 1. Changes in NRx from Week Ending 5/4/12 Vs. Moving Avgs. Prior to Bydureon Approval

Table 2. Changes in TRx from Week Ending 5/4/12 Vs. Moving Avgs. Prior to Bydureon Approval

Upcoming Milestones

Product Event Timing Corporate Annual meeting and proxy fight May 24, 2012 Bydureon Secure EU partner 2012 Metreleptin Potential EU orphan designation 1H12 Exenatide suspension Once-weekly Phase III initiation 2Q12/3Q12 Bydureon Launch pen/device 4Q12/1Q13 Exenatide suspension Once-monthly Phase III initiation 2013

Changes in NRx

4-week

Moving

Averages

1/27/2012

5/4/2012 Variance

BYDUREON 3,332 3,332

BYETTA 11,412 10,414 (998)

Total Exenetide Franchise 11,412 13,746 2,334

VICTOZA 15,063 16,642 1,579

TOTAL GLP-1 New Rx 26,475 30,388 3,913

Market Share % of NRx

BYDUREON 11.0% 11.0%

BYETTA 43.1% 34.3% -8.8%

Total Exenetide % 43.1% 45.2% 2.1%

VICTOZA 56.9% 54.8% -2.1%

Changes in TRx

4-week

Moving

Averages

1/27/2012

5/4/2012 Variance

BYDUREON 5,155 5,155

BYETTA 28,429 28,314 (115)

Total Exenetide Franchise 28,429 33,469 5,041

VICTOZA 36,009 41,012 5,004

TOTAL GLP-1 Rx 64,437 74,481 10,044

Market Share % of TRx

BYDUREON 6.9% 6.9%

BYETTA 43.8% 38.0% -5.8%

Total Exenetide % 43.8% 44.9% 1.1%

VICTOZA 56.2% 55.1% -1.1%



Table 3. New Prescription Starts (NRx) for the GLP-1 Market by Week

Total New Rx (NRx)

Product 1/6/2012 1/13/2012 1/20/2012 1/27/2012 2/3/2012 2/10/2012 2/17/2012 2/24/2012 3/2/2012 3/9/2012 3/16/2012 3/23/2012 3/30/2012 4/6/2012 4/13/2012 4/20/2012 4/27/2012 5/4/2012

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

BYDUREON

TOTAL BYDUREON Rx 1 15 386 894 1,275 1,845 2,073 2,467 2,719 2,940 2,801 2,963 3,224 3,332

Sequential Growth 2473.33% 131.61% 42.62% 44.71% 12.36% 19.01% 10.21% 8.13% -4.73% 5.78% 8.81% 3.35%

4-wk Moving Avg. 134 324 643 1,100 1,522 1,915 2,276 2,550 2,732 2,856 2,982 3,080

BYETTA

10MCG/0.04 7,866 8,353 7,915 8,106 8,854 8,047 7,485 7,556 7,517 7,911 7,336 7,148 7,433 7,255 6,762 6,841 7,055 7,259

5MCG/0.02 3,198 3,403 3,394 3,413 3,569 3,465 3,199 3,158 3,274 3,486 3,189 3,173 3,141 3,089 2,872 2,974 2,987 3,155

TOTAL BYETTA Rx 11,064 11,756 11,309 11,519 12,423 11,512 10,684 10,714 10,791 11,397 10,525 10,321 10,574 10,344 9,634 9,815 10,042 10,414

Sequential Growth 18.78% 6.25% -3.80% 1.86% 7.85% -7.33% -7.19% 0.28% 0.72% 5.62% -7.65% -1.94% 2.45% -2.18% -6.86% 1.88% 2.31% 3.70%

4-wk Moving Avg. 10,550 10,745 10,861 11,412 11,752 11,691 11,535 11,333 10,925 10,897 10,857 10,759 10,704 10,441 10,218 10,092 9,959 9,976

TOTAL EXENETIDE FRANCHISE 11,064 11,756 11,309 11,519 12,424 11,527 11,070 11,608 12,066 13,242 12,598 12,788 13,293 13,284 12,435 12,778 13,266 13,746

Sequential Growth 18.78% 6.25% -3.80% 1.86% 7.86% -7.22% -3.96% 4.86% 3.95% 9.75% -4.86% 1.51% 3.95% -0.07% -6.39% 2.76% 3.82% 3.62%

4-wk Moving Avg. 10,550 10,745 10,861 11,412 11,752 11,695 11,635 11,657 11,568 11,997 12,379 12,674 12,980 12,991 12,950 12,948 12,941 13,056

~

VICTOZA

2-PACK 5,010 5,301 5,214 5,162 5,615 5,389 5,303 5,334 5,431 5,711 5,381 5,467 5,356 5,306 5,527 5,719 5,539 5,654

3-PACK 9,626 9,944 9,927 10,067 10,472 10,439 10,382 9,958 10,330 11,012 10,101 10,417 10,422 10,247 9,944 10,484 10,415 10,988

TOTAL VICTOZA Rx 14,636 15,245 15,141 15,229 16,087 15,828 15,685 15,292 15,761 16,723 15,482 15,884 15,778 15,553 15,471 16,203 15,954 16,642

Sequential Growth 19.12% 4.16% -0.68% 0.58% 5.63% -1.61% -0.90% -2.51% 3.07% 6.10% -7.42% 2.60% -0.67% -1.43% -0.53% 4.73% -1.54% 4.31%

4-wk Moving Avg. 13,899 14,148 14,327 15,063 15,426 15,571 15,707 15,723 15,642 15,865 15,815 15,963 15,967 15,674 15,672 15,751 15,795 16,068

TOTAL GLP-1 NRx 25,700 27,001 26,450 26,748 28,511 27,355 26,755 26,900 27,827 29,965 28,080 28,672 29,071 28,837 27,906 28,981 29,220 30,388

Sequential Growth 18.97% 5.06% -2.04% 1.13% 6.59% -4.05% -2.19% 0.54% 3.45% 7.68% -6.29% 2.11% 1.39% -0.80% -3.23% 3.85% 0.82% 4.00%

4-wk Moving Avg. 24,448 24,893 25,188 26,475 27,178 27,266 27,342 27,380 27,209 27,862 28,193 28,636 28,947 28,665 28,622 28,699 28,736 29,124

% of NRx by Product

Product 1/6/2012 1/13/2012 1/20/2012 1/27/2012 2/3/2012 2/10/2012 2/17/2012 2/24/2012 3/2/2012 3/9/2012 3/16/2012 3/23/2012 3/30/2012 4/6/2012 4/13/2012 4/20/2012 4/27/2012 5/4/2012

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

BYDUREON 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.4% 3.3% 4.6% 6.2% 7.4% 8.6% 9.4% 10.2% 10.0% 10.2% 11.0% 11.0%

BYETTA 43.1% 43.5% 42.8% 43.1% 43.6% 42.1% 39.9% 39.8% 38.8% 38.0% 37.5% 36.0% 36.4% 35.9% 34.5% 33.9% 34.4% 34.3%

Total Exenetide % 43.1% 43.5% 42.8% 43.1% 43.6% 42.1% 41.4% 43.2% 43.4% 44.2% 44.9% 44.6% 45.7% 46.1% 44.6% 44.1% 45.4% 45.2%

VICTOZA 56.9% 56.5% 57.2% 56.9% 56.4% 57.9% 58.6% 56.8% 56.6% 55.8% 55.1% 55.4% 54.3% 53.9% 55.4% 55.9% 54.6% 54.8%



Table 4. Total Prescriptions (TRx) for the GLP-1 Market by Week

GLP-1 Agonist - Total Rx (TRx)

Product 1/6/2012 1/13/2012 1/20/2012 1/27/2012 2/3/2012 2/10/2012 2/17/2012 2/24/2012 3/2/2012 3/9/2012 3/16/2012 3/23/2012 3/30/2012 4/6/2012 4/13/2012 4/20/2012 4/27/2012 5/4/2012

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

BYDUREON

TOTAL BYDUREON Rx 1 15 387 903 1,284 1,881 2,235 2,797 3,291 3,702 3,775 4,247 4,746 5,155

Sequential Growth 133.33% 42.19% 46.50% 18.82% 25.15% 17.66% 12.49% 1.97% 12.50% 11.75% 8.62%

4-wk Moving Avg. Bydureon 134 327 647 1,114 1,576 2,049 2,551 3,006 3,391 3,754 4,118 4,481

BYETTA

10MCG/0.04 22,680 21,602 21,029 20,736 23,378 21,115 20,663 20,323 21,902 22,357 20,244 20,090 21,126 21,428 19,637 19,519 20,003 21,345

5MCG/0.02 7,145 6,893 6,911 6,718 7,446 6,982 6,729 6,539 7,107 7,222 6,629 6,666 6,864 6,887 6,119 6,330 6,376 6,969

TOTAL BYETTA Rx 29,825 28,495 27,940 27,454 30,824 28,097 27,392 26,862 29,009 29,579 26,873 26,756 27,990 28,315 25,756 25,849 26,379 28,314

Sequential Growth 10.27% -4.46% -1.95% -1.74% 12.28% -8.85% -2.51% -1.93% 7.99% 1.96% -9.15% -0.44% 4.61% 1.16% -9.04% 0.36% 2.05% 7.34%

4-wk Moving Avg. 28,465 28,504 28,327 28,429 28,678 28,579 28,442 28,294 27,840 28,211 28,081 28,054 27,800 27,484 27,204 26,978 26,575 26,575

TOTAL EXENETIDE FRANCHISE 29,825 28,495 27,940 27,454 30,825 28,112 27,779 27,765 30,293 31,460 29,108 29,553 31,281 32,017 29,531 30,096 31,125 33,469

Sequential Growth 10.27% -4.46% -1.95% -1.74% 12.28% -8.80% -1.18% -0.05% 9.10% 3.85% -7.48% 1.53% 5.85% 2.35% -7.76% 1.91% 3.42% 7.53%

4-wk Moving Avg. 28,465 28,504 28,327 28,429 28,679 28,583 28,543 28,620 28,487 29,324 29,657 30,104 30,351 30,490 30,596 30,731 30,692 31,055

VICTOZA

2-PACK 12,317 12,211 12,100 11,831 12,815 12,625 12,277 12,446 12,762 13,557 12,636 12,822 12,974 12,995 12,935 13,327 13,097 13,709

3-PACK 24,536 23,842 23,804 23,393 24,900 25,045 24,585 24,212 25,490 26,407 25,209 25,399 25,966 26,030 25,180 26,112 26,141 27,303

TOTAL VICTOZA Rx 36,853 36,053 35,904 35,224 37,715 37,670 36,862 36,658 38,252 39,964 37,845 38,221 38,940 39,025 38,115 39,439 39,238 41,012

Sequential Growth 11.49% -2.17% -0.41% -1.89% 7.07% -0.12% -2.14% -0.55% 4.35% 4.48% -5.30% 0.99% 1.88% 0.22% -2.33% 3.47% -0.51% 4.52%

4-wk Moving Avg. 35,358 35,510 35,466 36,009 36,224 36,628 36,868 37,226 37,361 37,934 38,180 38,571 38,743 38,508 38,575 38,880 38,954 39,451

TOTAL GLP-1 Rx 66,678 64,548 63,844 62,678 68,540 65,782 64,641 64,423 68,545 71,424 66,953 67,774 70,221 71,042 67,646 69,535 70,363 74,481

Sequential Growth 10.94% -3.19% -1.09% -1.83% 9.35% -4.02% -1.73% -0.34% 6.40% 4.20% -6.26% 1.23% 3.61% 1.17% -4.78% 2.79% 1.19% 5.85%

4-wk Moving Avg. 63,823 64,014 63,793 64,437 64,903 65,211 65,410 65,847 65,848 67,258 67,836 68,674 69,093 68,998 69,171 69,611 69,647 70,506

% of TRx by Product

Product 1/6/2012 1/13/2012 1/20/2012 1/27/2012 2/3/2012 2/10/2012 2/17/2012 2/24/2012 3/2/2012 3/9/2012 3/16/2012 3/23/2012 3/30/2012 4/6/2012 4/13/2012 4/20/2012 4/27/2012 5/4/2012

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

BYDUREON 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.60% 1.40% 1.87% 2.63% 3.34% 4.13% 4.69% 5.21% 5.58% 6.11% 6.75% 6.92%

BYETTA 44.7% 44.1% 43.8% 43.8% 45.0% 42.7% 42.4% 41.7% 42.3% 41.4% 40.1% 39.5% 38.6% 39.9% 38.1% 37.2% 37.5% 38.0%

Total Exenetide % 44.7% 44.1% 43.8% 43.8% 45.0% 42.7% 43.0% 43.1% 44.2% 44.0% 43.5% 43.6% 43.3% 45.1% 43.7% 43.3% 44.2% 44.9%

VICTOZA 55.3% 55.9% 56.2% 56.2% 55.0% 57.3% 57.0% 56.9% 55.8% 56.0% 56.5% 56.4% 56.8% 54.9% 56.3% 56.7% 55.8% 55.1%



Table 5. Comparison of Bydureon and Victoza Launches by NRx

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2/17/2012 2/24/2012 3/2/2012 3/9/2012 3/16/2012 3/23/2012 3/30/2012 4/6/2012 4/13/2012 4/20/2012 4/27/2012 5/4/2012

Bydureon 386 894 1,275 1,845 2,073 2,467 2,719 2,940 2,801 2,963 3,224 3,332

% Sequential Growth 131.6% 42.6% 44.7% 12.4% 19.0% 10.2% 8.1% -4.7% 5.8% 8.8% 3.3%

2/19/2010 2/26/2010 3/5/2010 3/12/2010 3/19/2010 3/26/2010 4/2/2010 4/9/2010 4/16/2010 4/23/2010 4/30/2010 4/30/2010

Victoza 411 1,057 1,465 2,234 2,540 3,153 3,605 3,809 4,346 4,742 5,214 5,686

% Sequential Growth 157.2% 38.6% 52.5% 13.7% 24.1% 14.3% 5.7% 14.1% 9.1% 10.0% 9.1%

Bydureon Performance Relative to Victoza -15.4% -13.0% -17.4% -18.4% -21.8% -24.6% -22.8% -35.5% -37.5% -38.2% -41.4%

NRx by Week Since Launch



RODMAN & RENSHAW RATING SYSTEM: Rodman & Renshaw employs a three tier rating system for evaluating both the potentialreturn and risk associated with owning common equity shares of rated firms. The expected return of any given equity is measured on aRELATIVE basis of other companies in the same sector, as defined by First Call. The price objective is calculated to estimate the potentialmovement in price a given equity could achieve given certain targets are met over a defined time horizon. Price objectives are subject toexogenous factors including industry events and market volatility. The risk assessment evaluates the company specific risk and accountsfor the following factors, maturity of market, maturity of technology, maturity of firm, cash utilization, and valuation considerations.Potential factors contributing to risk: relatively undefined market, new technologies, immature firm, high cash burn rates, intrinsic valueweighted toward future earnings or events.

RETURN ASSESSMENT● Market Outperform (Buy): The common stock of the company is expected to outperform a passive index comprised of all the

common stock of companies within the same sector, as defined by First Call.● Market Perform (Hold): The common stock of the company is expected to mimic the performance of a passive index comprised

of all the common stock of companies within the same sector, as defined by First Call.● Market Underperform (Sell): The common stock of the company is expected to underperform a passive index comprised of all

the common stock of companies within the same sector, as defined by First Call.

RISK ASSESSMENT● Speculative - The common stock risk level is significantly greater than market risk. The stock price of these equities is

exceptionally volatile.● Aggressive - The common stock risk level is materially higher than market level risk. The stock price is typically more volatile

than the general market.● Moderate - The common stock is moderately risky, or equivalent to stock market risk. The stock price volatility is typically in-line

with movements in the general market.

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Rating and Price Target History for: Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AMLN) as of 05-11-2012

Created by BlueMatrix

RATING SUMMARY

Distribution of Ratings TableIB Serv./Past 12 Mos

Rating Count Percent Count PercentMarket Outperform(MO) 73 62.39% 10 13.70%Market Perform(MP) 28 23.93% 3 10.71%Market Underperform(MU) 6 5.13% 0 0.00%Under Review(UR) 10 8.55% 3 30.00%Total 117 100% 16 100%

Investment Banking Services include, but are not limited to, acting as a manager/co-manager in the underwriting or placement ofsecurities, acting as financial advisor, and/or providing corporate finance or capital markets-related services to a company or one of its



affiliates or subsidiaries within the past 12 months.

ADDITIONAL DISCLOSURESRodman & Renshaw, LLC. (the "Firm") is a member of FINRA and SIPC and a registered U.S. Broker-Dealer.

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I, Michael G. King, Jr., hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about thesubject company(ies) and its (their) securities.

None of the research analysts or the research analyst's household has a financial interest in the securities of Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc.(including, without limitation, any option, right, warrant, future, long or short position).

As of Apr 30 2012 neither the Firm nor its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of AmylinPharmaceuticals Inc..

Neither the research analyst nor the Firm has any material conflict of interest with Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc., of which the researchanalyst knows or has reason to know at the time of publication of this research report.

The research analyst principally responsible for preparation of the report does not receive compensation that is based upon any specificinvestment banking services or transaction but is compensated based on factors including total revenue and profitability of the Firm, asubstantial portion of which is derived from investment banking services.

The Firm or its affiliates did not receive compensation from Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. for any investment banking services within twelvemonths before, but intends to seek compensation from the companies mentioned in this report for investment banking services withinthree months, following publication of the research report.

Neither the research analyst nor any member of the research analyst's household nor the Firm serves as an officer, director or advisoryboard member of Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc..

The Firm does make a market in Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. securities as of the date of this research report.

Any opinions expressed herein are statements of our judgment as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

Reproduction without written permission is prohibited. The closing prices of securities mentioned in this report are as of May 11 2012.Additional information is available to clients upon written request. For complete research report on Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc., pleasecall (212) 356-0500.

Readers are advised that this analysis report is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell orthe solicitation of an offer to buy. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable but is notguaranteed by us as being accurate and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of the available data. Past performanceis no guarantee of future results.


rodman renshaw report on amln 5 14-12

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