rocky mountain power load growth and network planning april 27, 2007 mark adams
TRANSCRIPT
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– New and Proposed Industrial Loads– Jonah Field / Upper Green River Basin
Load locations Our latest network planning
– Wamsutter / South Central Wyoming Load locations Our latest network planning
– Entire State Additional large load Our latest network planning
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Projected Load IncreasesP
roje
ct
Load Location
Probability of
Occurrence
Projected MW Load Increase 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1 Pinedale High 25.0 0.0 18.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.02 Pinedale Medium 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.0 15.0 15.03 Pinedale High 85.0 0.0 9.0 15.0 41.0 41.0 62.04 Pinedale Low 150.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 75.0 100.0 125.05 Pinedale High 4.0 1.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.06 Pinedale High 10.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 10.0 10.07 Jonah High 80.0 0.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.08 Shute Creek Medium 30.0 0.0 14.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.09 Kemmerer High 42.0 21.0 21.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0
10 Kemmerer High 7.0 1.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.011 Kemmerer High 9.0 0.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.012 Evanston High 2.5 1.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.513 Rock Springs Medium 90.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.0 34.0 47.014 Rock Springs High 6.0 0.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.015 Bittercreek (Monell) High 25.0 9.0 16.0 23.0 25.0 25.0 25.016 Wamsutter High 2.5 1.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.517 Rawlins High 65.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 39.0 45.0 52.018 Rawlins Low 130.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.019 Wamsutter High 4.0 2.0 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.0 4.020 Rawlins High 12.0 4.0 8.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.021 Rawlins Medium 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 8.0 12.022 Atlantic Rim High 60.0 0.0 0.0 15.0 20.0 24.0 29.023 Rawlins High 12.0 9.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.024 Hanna Medium 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 15.0 15.025 Cody High 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.026 Cody High 4.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 4.027 Riverton Medium 2.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.028 N. E. of Casper Medium 23.0 0.0 11.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.029 Claim Jumper/Salt Creek High 86.0 11.0 16.0 24.0 32.0 37.0 48.030 Douglas High 3.0 0.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Total 1013 66 253 419 555 621 737
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Wyoming Industrial Load Forecast - Megawatts
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Low Prob
Med Prob
High Prob
Base Load
A display of the 2006 Wyoming peak load for all customers (Base Load) with a 2% year on year load growth overlaid with the new industrial load growth.
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Jonah Field
80
KEM MERER
EVANSTON
ROCK SPRINGS
PINEDALE
LA BARGE
DANIEL
EDEN
BIG PINEYA tlanticC ity
NaughtonOpa l
Monument
B lacks Fork
Westvaco
Palisades
F ireho leM ansfaceS outhTrona
Rock Springs
Chappel
S huteCreek
B lue R im
1-252-15
3-854-150
5-46-10
7-80
8-30
9-4210-711-9
12-2.5
Total Load of 545.5 Megawatts
Jonah is one of the largest gas fields in the U.S. with reserves of 2.5 trillion cubic feet of gas.
The loads in this geographic area represent natural gas processing and transportation and CO2 capture and transportation customers.
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Jonah Field Infrastructure
6
80
KEMMERER
EVANSTON
ROCK SPRINGS
PINEDALE
LA BARGE
DANIEL
EDEN
BIG PINEYAtlanticCity
NaughtonOpal
MonumentBlacks ForkWestvaco Palisades
FireholeMansfaceSouthTrona
Rock Springs
Chappel
ShuteCreek
Blue Rim
7
3
42
5
1
9
8
10
Chimney Butte 75MVA
Jonah Field Switchrack (future 100MVA sub)
Paradise 75MVA
Ross Switchrack
Wind River Phase Shifter
to Creston Switchrack
230kV
230kV
230kV
230kV
230kV
230kV & 69kV
230k
V
69kV
230k
V
230kV
Planned Ultimate69kV Line miles 14 14230kV Line miles 95 30069kV SwitchRacks 0 1230kV SwitchRacks 1 369-25kV Subs 1 1230-69kV Subs 2 3230-35kV Subs 0 0
Today
Planned
Ultimate Build-out (at today’s known and queued future loads and generation)
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Wamsutter / South Central Wyoming
80RO CK S PRING S
WAMS UTTER
BA IROIL
RAW LINS
ED EN
SU PE RIOR
SINC LA IR
HA NNA
CE NTENN IA L
ELK MO UNTA IN
M us ta ng
M inersP la tte
J im Bridge r
B ar-XP oin to f R ock s
F ireh oleM an sfac e
P alisa de s
B lu e R imRock Springs 13-90
14-6 15-25
16-2.517-6518-130
19-4
20-12 21-12 22-60
23-1224-15
Total Load of 433.5 Megawatts
The loads in this geographic area represent nature gas and oil processing, transportation, CO2 injection, and coal bed methane customers.
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Wamsutter / South Central Wyoming Infrastructure
Blue Rim80ROCK SPRINGS
WAMSUTTER
BAIROIL
RAWLINS
EDEN
SUPERIOR
SINCLAIR
HANNA
CENTENNIAL
ELK MOUNTAIN
Mustang
MinersPlatte
Jim Bridger
Bar-XPointof RocksFirehole
Mansface
PalisadesRock Springs
1215
13
16
17
18
19
20
To Two Elk 250MW Generation
230k
V
230kV
230kV
Latham 25MVA
230kV to Atlantic Rim
Creston Switchrack
to Wind River Switchrack
230kV
230kV
Barrel Springs 75MVA
Planned Ultimate69kV Line miles 0 0230kV Line miles 25 12069kV SwitchRacks 0 0230kV SwitchRacks 0 169-25kV Subs 0 0230-69kV Subs 0 0230-35kV Subs 1 2
Today
Planned
Ultimate Build-out (at today’s known and queued future loads and generation)
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All Projects in Wyoming
YE LLOW S TONE NAT IONA L PARK
GR AND TETONNAT IONA L PARK
80
80
25
25
90
90
KE MME RER
EVANS TON
RO CK S PRING S
W AMS UTT ER
PIN EDA LE
LAND ER
RIV ERTON
R iv erton
BA IROIL
RAW LINS
LARA MIE
CH EYE NN E
GLEN DO
DO UGLAS
GLEN ROC KCA SP ER
PO W DE R RIVE R
MIDW E ST
GILLETTEBU FFALO
SH ERID AN
W OR LA ND
TH ER MOPO LIS
CO DY
LOVE LL
LA BA RGE
DA NIEL
ED EN
BIG P IN EY
SU PE RIOR
SIN CLA IR
HA NNA ME DICINE B OW
CE NT ENN IA L
ELK MO UNTA IN
F ra nn ie
M idw es t
Te ck laTri-S ta te
W yo da kB uffa lo
S he rida nG oo se C ree k
G arlan d
O reg on B asin
G rass C reek
W yo po
A tlan ticC ity
M us ta ng
S pe nceW APA
M iners
F oote C ree k
P la tte
J im Bridge r
B ar-XP oin to f R ock s
N au ghto nO pa l
F ireh o le
L ittle M o unta in
M an sfac eS ou thTrona
Rock Springs
T herm o polis
C ha ppe l
S hu teC reek
B lu e R im
27-2
25-226-4
29-86
30-3
28-23
5
2
1
13
3
6
98
7
10
11
1214
1615
17
18
19
20
23
21 22
24
Balance of the additional new industrial load in Wyoming is 120 Megawatts, mostly oil and gas processing customers.
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Infrastructure in Wyoming
t
Planned Ultimate69kV Line miles 14 14230kV Line miles 120 42069kV SwitchRacks 0 1230kV SwitchRacks 1 469-25kV Subs 1 1230-69kV Subs 2 3230-35kV Subs 1 2
Today
Planned
Ultimate Build-out (at today’s known and queued future loads and generation)
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK
GRAND TETONNATIONAL PARK
80
80
25
25
90
90
KEMMERER
EVANSTON
ROCK SPRINGS
WAMSUTTER
PINEDALE
LANDER
RIVERTON
Riverton
BAIROIL
RAWLINS
LARAMIE
CHEYENNE
GLENDO
DOUGLAS
GLENROCKCASPER
POWDER RIVER
MIDWEST
GILLETTEBUFFALO
SHERIDAN
WORLAND
THERMOPOLIS
CODY
LOVELL
LA BARGE
DANIEL
EDEN
BIG PINEY
SUPERIOR
SINCLAIR
HANNA MEDICINE BOW
CENTENNIAL
ELK MOUNTAIN
Frannie
Midwest
aTri-State
WyodakBuffalo
SheridanGoose Creek
Garland
Oregon Basin
Grass Creek
Wyopo
AtlanticCity
Mustang
SpenceWAPA
Miners
Foote Creek
Platte
Jim Bridger
Bar-XPointof Rocks
NaughtonOpal
Monumen
t
Blacks F
ork
Wesvaco
Palisad
es
Firehole
Little Mountain
MansfaceSouthTrona
Rock Springs
Thermopolis
Chappel
ShuteCreek
Blue Rim
22
23
12
7
15
13
21
11
3
42
5
1 16
9
8
10
24
17
18
19
25
20
To Two Elk 250MW Generation
The physical electrical network requirements change dramatically as customers change facility sites and load requirements and as new customers make requests. The view represents approximately $500 million in transmission and distribution infrastructure investment.
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Northern Utah
1. Northern Utah (less Salt Lake County) currently has 123 MW of proposed development.
123
4
56 7
8 9 101112
1413
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Projected Load Increases
Load Location
Probability of
Occurrence
Customer Projected
Load Increase MW 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1 Northern Utah Medium 1.2 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
2 Northern Utah High 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0
3 Northern Utah High 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
4 Northern Utah High 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
5 Northern Utah Low 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
6 Northern Utah High 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0
7 Northern Utah Medium 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
8 Northern Utah High 30.0 0.0 15.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
9 Northern Utah High 2.5 1.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
10 Northern Utah High 7.5 5.0 5.0 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5
11 Northern Utah Low 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
12 Northern Utah High 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
13 Northern Utah High 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0
14 Northern Utah High 5.5 3.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5
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South-East Utah
1. South-Eastern Utah has load requests totaling 192 MW. These increases are expected in the next 1-5 years.
12
3 45
67 8
9
10
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Projected Load Increases
Load Location
Probability of
Occurrence
Customer Projected
Load Increase MW 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1 Southeastern Utah High 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
2 Southeastern Utah High 120.0 8.0 29.0 62.0 72.0 90.0 120.0
3 Southeastern Utah Medium 8.0 0.0 4.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
4 Southeastern Utah Medium 16.0 0.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0
5 Southeastern Utah Low 5.0 2.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
6 Southeastern Utah High 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
7 Southeastern Utah High 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
8 Southeastern Utah High 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
9 Southeastern Utah High 6.0 3.0 5.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
10 Southeastern Utah High 30.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
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South-West Utah
South-West Utah has load requests totaling 35 MW. These increases are also expected in the next 1-5 years
1
2 3 4
5
67
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Projected Load Increases
Name
Probability of
Occurrence
Customer Projected
Load Increase MW 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1 Southwest Utah High 3.5 0.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
2 Southwest Utah High 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
3 Southwest Utah High 5.0 2.5 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
4 Southwest Utah Medium 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
5 Southwest Utah High 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8
6 Southwest Utah High 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
7 Southwest Utah High 4.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
8 Southwest Utah Medium 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0
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Salt Lake County
1
49
62
3
11
1075 8
– Northern Salt Lake County has had requests totaling 60 MW.
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Projected Load Increases
Name
Probability of
Occurrence
Customer Projected
Load Increase MW 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Northern Salt Lake County Medium 1.5 0.8 0.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Northern Salt Lake County High 8.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5
Northern Salt Lake County High 8.0 0.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
Northern Salt Lake County Low 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5
Northern Salt Lake County Medium 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
Northern Salt Lake County High 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Northern Salt Lake County High 18.0 4.0 9.0 13.0 18.0 18.0
Northern Salt Lake County Low 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Northern Salt Lake County High 5.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Northern Salt Lake County High 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Northern Salt Lake County High 5.0 2.5 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
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South Salt Lake County
5
98
12
6
7
43
– Southern Salt Lake County has had requests totaling 33 MW.
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Projected Load Increases
Rocky Mountain Power - New Utah Loads
Name
Probability of
Occurrence
Customer Projected
Load Increase MW 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1 Southern Salt Lake County High 11.5 6.0 8.0 10.0 11.5 11.5 11.5
2 Southern Salt Lake County High 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
3 Southern Salt Lake County High 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
4 Southern Salt Lake County High 5.0 0.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
5 Southern Salt Lake County Medium 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
6 Southern Salt Lake County Low 2.0 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
7 Southern Salt Lake County High 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0
8 Southern Salt Lake County High 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
9 Southern Salt Lake County Low 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
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Utah Industrial Load Forecast, MW’s
0
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100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Low Prob
Med Prob
High Prob
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– Last stop,
Utah’s Wasatch Front – Residential and small commercial Load Growth
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Wasatch Front 2006 Summer Peak – What Happened?
Year Date Day Time MW CDD*
AnnualPeak CDD
Summer TotalCDD
2001 August 8 Wednesday 17:00 3,268 21.0 22.5 1,142
2002 July 15 Monday 17:00 3,473 22.0 25.0 1,121
2003 July 22 Tuesday 17:00 3,672 21.5 26.5 1,255
2004 July 14 Wednesday 17:00 3,558 19.0 22.0 907
2005 July 21 Thursday 16:00 3,853 21.0 24.0 1,042
2006 July 17 Monday 17:00 4,051 19.0 25.5 1,196
|---------------- Peak Day Statistics----------------------|
* Cooling Degree Day (CDD) = Avg (Tmax + Tmin) - 65
For example, a day with an average temperature of 80 °F will have a value of 15 CDD.
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Wasatch Front Monthly Peak Demand History
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Jun-00
Dec-00
Jun-01
Dec-01
Jun-02
Dec-02
Jun-03
Dec-03
Jun-04
Dec-04
Jun-05
Dec-05
Jun-06
Dec-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Loa
d (m
W)
WF distribution load (w/o industrials)
Expected peak load forecast = 4.0%
Base load growth = 1.7%
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Wasatch Front Post Peak Observations
– Summary Points The 2006 summer can be considered fairly normal
for purposes of infrastructure planning. Weather-normalized summer peaks are still
growing at more than 4 per cent. Weather sensitivity of peak demand increased to
60 MW/CDD (a net increase smaller than for past years).
Direct load control (Cool Keeper) reduced annual peak demand growth rate by 0.2%.