robert ricketts frank m. burke chair in taxation october 2010€¦ · explaining the deficit:...
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Robert RickettsFrank M. Burke Chair in Taxation
October 2010
Trend Lines: Revenues & Expenditures 2006-2010
(first 11 months each year)
Revenues Expenditures Deficit
Gross Change (%) Gross Change (%) Gross Change (%)
2006 2,123,378 2,427,741 304,366
2007 2,282,320 7.49% 2,556,710 5.31% 274,393 -9.85%
2008 2,251,413 -1.35% 2,751,946 7.64% 500,530 82.41%
2009 1,885,483 -16.25% 3,255,999 18.32% 1,370,518 173.81%
2010 1,916,555 1.65% 3,176,150 -2.45% 1,259,597 -8.09%
Source: Monthly Treasury Statements (www.fms.treas.gov/mts/mts.pdf)
Explaining the Deficit:Change in U.S. Federal Tax Revenues
2008-2009
2008 2009 Change Percent
Individual Income Taxes $1,145,700 $915,300 ($230,400) -20.11%
Corporate Income Taxes 304,430 138,200 (166,230) -54.6%
Social Security Taxes 900,200 890,900 (9,300) -1.03%
Unemployment Insurance 39,535 37,431 (2,104) -5.32%
Estate & Gift Taxes 28,800 23,500 (5,300) -18.4%
Other (excise, customs, etc) 105,335 99,269 (6,066) -5.76%
Total $2,524,000 $2,104,600 ($419,400) -16.62%
Explaining the Deficit 2008-2009 Budget Reconciliation
2008 2009 ChangePercent Change
Tax Revenues (previous slide) 2,524,000 2,104,600 (419,400) -16.62%
Expenditures:
HHS (Medicare, Medicaid) 653,924 729,621 75,697 +11.58%
Dep’t of the Treasury (TARP) 534,707 708,546 174,839 +32.51%
Social Security Administration 605,668 666,314 60,646 +10.01%
Dep’t of Defense (Iraq, Afghanistan) 542,656 576,443 33,787 +6.23%
Dep’t of Labor (unemployment) 53,313 123,474 70,161 +131.6%
Dep’t of Agriculture (food stamps) 84,515 105,276 20,761 +24.56%
HUD (FHA losses) 45,675 57,983 12,308 +26.95%
Homeland Security (disaster relief, border patrol) 36,515 47,344 10,829 +29.66%
Defense Civil Programs (Military Ret.) 41,909 52,374 10,465 +24.97%
All other 383,718 450,825 67,107 +17.49%
Deficit (458,600) (1,413,600) (955,000) 208.24%
Present Value of “Social Insurance” Liabilities Projected Over Next 75 Years “Social Insurance” programs account for just over
40% of the budget
As of the end of fiscal year 2009, the estimated net present value liability associated with these programs was $45 trillion:
Medicare – $38 trillion** (before HCR) SS – $7.6 trillion
2009 GDP = $14.265 trillion
Source: Fiscal Year 2009 Financial Report of the United States, p. xiii (http://www.gao.gov/financial/fy2009/09frusg.pdf)
Present Value of “Social Insurance” Liabilities (cont)
PV of Projected GDP over next 75 years = $776 T
Net PV excess “Social Insurance” expenditures –5.8% projected PV GDP
Social Security deficit – 1% GDP over next 75 years
Medicare deficit – 4.8% GDP over next 75 years
Medicare shortfall is almost 500% of SS shortfall in relative terms (as of FYE 2009)
OverviewSocial Security as of FYE 2009
Total Beneficiaries – 53 million
Retirees – 36 million
Survivors – 6 million
Disabled workers – 10 million
Employees paying into system – 136 million
Source: 2010 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds (www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2010/index.html)
Overview (cont)Total Revenues – $807 billion
Taxes (12.4% taxable payroll) – $689 billion
Interest ($2.5 trillion in Treasury bonds) – $118 billion
Total Expenditures – $686 billionSource: 2010 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability
Insurance Trust Funds (www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2010/index.html) . Note that figures do not tie to CBO’s historical figures (www.cbo.gov/budget/budget.cfm).
Social Security Surpluses vs. Operating Deficit
1990-2009
It has not always been this way …
The cumulative Social Security surplus for the period 1990—2009 was $2.5 trillion
This represents around 23% of the total government debt ($11 Trillion) as of the end of fiscal year 2009
Annual Cost of SS Benefits2009 – benefits paid = 4.8% of GDP
2009 – SS tax revenues = 5.76% of GDP
2035 – projected benefits = 6.1% of GDP
After 2035, costs projected to decline to 5.9 % of GDP
“Fixing” Social Security Cost Factors:
Retirement age Life expectancy Choice of inflation index (wage inflation is about 30% less
than CPI)
Revenue Factors: Tax rate Tax base
Earnings ceiling S corp pass-through income “Carried interest” (e.g., hedge fund manager salaries) Immigration
Taxation of benefits to recipients
Example: Lifting the Earnings Cap?
In 2007 (most recent data available), eliminating the cap on wages subject to FICA taxes would have increased tax revenues by $312 billion (enough to eliminate the 2008 total budget deficit)
Eliminating FICA on the first 20,000 of wages that year would have cost $69 billion in lost revenue
Thus, we could have increased tax revenues in 2007 by about $243 billion by eliminating FICA on the first $20,000 of wages, and eliminating the earnings cap on wages subject to FICA
SSA ProjectionsAnnual cost rate:
2010 – 13.09% of “taxable payroll”
2035 – 17.43% of “taxable payroll”
Current tax rate (combined) – 15.3% of “taxable payroll”
SSA ProjectionsFor 75-year projection period, the shortfall in SS could
be eliminated by: Immediately reducing benefits by 12%
Increasing combined tax rate immediately by 1.84%
This would absorb about 5.9% of projected real wage growth over next 30 years
Note that rate increases over the past 30 years absorbed 6.8% of real wage growth
SS Trustees Report for 2010 projects average realwage in 30 years will be 48.7% higher than today
Overview 2010 Medicare Trustees Report
Outlook “substantially” improved as a result of HCR:HI Trust Fund solvency extended 12 years
to 2029
75-year HI shortfall reduced to 0.66% of “taxable payroll” vs. 3.88% in 2009
Note that taxable payroll is different for Medicare than for Social Security
How HCR Reduces Projected Medicare Shortfall
Medicare reimbursement inflation adjustment:
Reduced to rate of “total economy multifactor productivity growth”
Does not apply to physicians’ services or drugs
Rationale: future growth in healthcare costs will not be allowed to exceed productivity growth in broader economy
Medicare Trustee Projections Hospital Insurance Trust Fund (HI) Deficit
0.66% of “taxable payroll”
Note that there is no earnings ceiling on Medicare payroll tax
Beginning in 2029, dedicated revenues projected to be equal to 85% of HI costs and will decline slowly from there
Over 75 years, HI shortfall projected to be equal to:
23% of Medicare payroll taxes
16% of HI program costs
Medicare Trustee ProjectionsMedicare, Part B (SMI) – pays doctors’ bills
and other outpatient expenses
Medicare, Part D – pays for prescription drugs Combined cost = 1.9% of GDP in 2009
Projected cost 2040: 3.5% of GDP
We have more work to do with regard to controlling prices for prescription drugs
Immediate Issue: Should we Extend the 2001-2003 Tax Cuts?
CBO Budget Projections if Tax Cuts Expire and HCR Unchanged
Extending the 2001-2003 Tax Cuts
CBO Projections Assuming Tax Cuts will be Extended and HCR Reforms will not be Fully Implemented
Gouging the Rich?Comparing effective total (state & federal) tax rates:
Source IRS 2008 individual income tax returns
All itemizers
Itemized deductions claimed for sales, property, state income and other taxes
Total federal income tax paid, including AMT, after allowable tax credits
FICA taxes paid conservatively estimated based on total salaries reported, assuming two workers with equal pay.
Effective Total Tax RatesLocal, State & Federal (incl. FICA)
U.S. Itemizers
Adjusted Gross Income
Pct ofItemizers
Share of AGI
Effective Total Tax
Rate
Bottom90%
Zero to $25,000
$25,000 to $50,000$50,000 to $75,000$75,000 to $100,000$100,000 to $200,000
Cumulative Total
9.23%20.15%20.55%16.70%24.71%91.34%
1.19%6.46%10.76%12.20%27.96%58.51%
49.45%34.43%32.56%32.11%33.52%
34.86%
$200,000 and above
$200,000 to $500,000$500,000 to $1,000,000
Cumulative Total
6.88%1.14%
8.02%
16.54%6.54%
23.08%
35.44%31.75%
34.91%
Top 1%
$1,000,000 to $1,500,000$1,500,000 to $2,000,000$2,000,000 to $5,000,000$5,000,000 to $10,000,000$10,000,000 or more
Cumulative Total
0.28%0.12%0.17%0.04%0.03%0.64%
2.85%1.72%4.37%2.50%6.90%18.41%
29.62%28.55%27.38%25.71%22.95%
28.26%