robert a. kerzner president & ceo limra, loma & …2...1998 2004 2010 2016 buyers are...
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Robert A. Kerzner
President & CEO
LIMRA, LOMA & LL Global
August 17, 2017
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77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
▬ Premium
Source: LIMRA’s Individual Life Sales Survey and LIMRA estimates
Total U.S. Individual Life Sales
Policies (millions)
▬ Policies
Premium ($billions)
30yr T-Bill 14%
UL replacing
WL
Weak economy
Market conduct issues
S&P ↑ 20% per yr
Growth of LTG UL
Great recession
1st quarter 2017: +5% 1st Quarter 2017: -2%
Annualized premium CAGR: +1.62%
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U.S. Individual Life Product Market Share
1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
VariableProducts
UniversalLife
Term
Whole Life
Annualized New Premium ($Billions)
Source: LIMRA’s Individual Life Sales Survey and LIMRA estimates
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$3.0 $2.9 $3.1 $3.2 $3.2 $3.6
$3.9 $4.2
$4.4 $4.6 $5.1 $5.3
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Whole life sales (Annualized Premium)
U.S. Whole Life sales have increased more than
80 percent since 2006
Source: LIMRA’s Individual Life Sales Survey and LIMRA estimates
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Cash Accumulation Products
Increasing Market Share
24% 23% 17% 13% 15% 16% 20% 25% 22%
29% 34% 41% 46%
37% 28% 36% 40% 38% 36% 27%
29% 39% 34%
35%
36% 34%
38% 49% 47% 47% 47% 48% 53%
45% 39% 37%
29% 23% 20%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Cash Accumulation Current Assumption/Other Lifetime Guarantee
UL Sales by Product Type
Source: LIMRA’s Individual Life Sales Survey and LIMRA estimates
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Middle market owns the majority of permanent
life insurance policies
14.7%
28.3% 57%
Lower
Upper
Middle
Market share permanent life insurance policies by household income
Source: 2016 Facts of Life and Annuities, LIMRA
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Fixed annuity sales surpass variable annuity sales in 2016
Source: LIMRA Secure Retirement Institute, U.S. Individual Annuities survey.
Do
llars
in
Bill
ion
s
Total U.S. Annuity Sales
$73 $109 $111
$82 $81 $72 $84 $96 $104 $117
$184
$156 $128
$141 $158 $147
$145 $140 $133 $105
$257 $265
$239 $222
$238 $220
$230 $236 $237 $222
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Variable Fixed
The last time fixed annuity sales surpassed VA sales was in 1992
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Variable annuity sales have declined
42 percent since 2006
$111 $117 $129 $133 $137
$160
$184
$156
$128 $141
$158 $147 $145 $140 $133
$105 $93
$78
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 *2017 *2018
Source: LIMRA Secure Retirement Institute, U.S. Individual Annuities survey.
Do
llars
in
Bill
ion
s
Annual Variable Annuity Sales
Variable annuity sales decline to lowest levels since 1998
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Sales Projections for 2017 and 2018
Source: LIMRA Secure Retirement Institute Analysis
Overall annuity sales will drop 10-15%
in 2017 and 2018
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Source: 2016 Life Insurance Ownership in Focus - Households
The US life insurance ownership remains at its
lowest level
46%
54%
53%
52% 52% 49%
46%
[VALUE]+
[VALUE]+
62%
55%
50% 50%
44% 44%
83% 83% 81%
78% 76%
78%
70% 70%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1960 1976 1984 1992 1998 2004 2010 2016
Perc
ent
Ow
nin
g L
ife Insura
nce
*Includes Individual, Group, SGLI & VGLI + Individual Life Sold Face-to-Face through an Agent
Owns Group Life Owns Individual Life Owns Any Life*
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60 million U.S. households need more
life insurance…
Source: 2016 Life Insurance Ownership in Focus - Households
*Based on LIMRA Life Insurance Needs Model analysis
If it was easier – would they buy?
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6 in 10 US households would experience a negative
financial impact quickly if the primary-wager-earner died
15%
23%
13%
8%
4%
12%
25%
Oneweek
Onemonth
Sixmonths
One year Twoyears
Five ormore
Don'tknow
How quickly consumers would feel the financial impact from the loss of the primary wage earner.
59%
Source: 2016 Insurance Barometer Study, LIMRA and Life Happens
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Individual life insurance
ownership by ethnicity
36%
47%
63%
52%
44%
Hispanic ChineseAmerican
AsianIndian
AfricanAmerican
U.S.Population
(Percent of households)
Household income of $25,000 or greater
Source: 2016 Life Insurance Ownership in Focus - Households
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Consumers understand the value of life insurance
Millennials
(18-35)
Gen X
(36-51)
Boomer
(52-64)
Senior
(65+)
Most people need life insurance 88% 88% 83% 82%
I personally need life insurance 78% 77% 63% 50%
I own life insurance 51% 62% 67% 65%
I own group life insurance obtained
through an employer or labor
union.
68% 64% 53% 31%
I own individual life insurance that
was individually purchased, and
was not received as a benefit of
employment.
55% 65% 76% 84%
Source: 2016 U.S. Life Insurance Ownership Study, LIMRA
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What people say and do are entirely different things…
U.S. households that say they need more life insurance
U.S. households that say they will purchase life insurance
with the next 12 months
U.S. households that actually buy life insurance
50%
25%
10%
Source: U.S. Life Insurance Ownership Studies, LIMRA
U.S. households that say they need more life insurance
U.S. households that say they will purchase life insurance
with the next 12 months
U.S. households that actually buy life insurance
41%
45%
10%
2010 2016
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18,700,000 New LIMRA/Maddock Douglas study finds
PEOPLE ARE “STUCK SHOPPERS”
56% 49% 42%
Millennials
Married With Kids
Source: Get Real Already: Industry Innovation Through Authentic Language. LIMRA & Maddock Douglas, 2014
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4 in 10 Millennials still want to buy face-to-face
Most Preferred Way to Purchase Life Insurance by Age
Age Group
Total Millennials Gen X Boomers Seniors
In person (outside of the workplace)
through a financial advisor or agent 51% 42% 47% 55% 73%
Complete an online form 21 22 24 22 11
Through my workplace 11 15 14 7 3
Complete application (offline) and email it
to an insurance company/professional 6 10 6 5 3
Complete an application and mail it to an
insurance company/professional 6 4 5 8 8
Over the phone 5 7 4 3 2
Source: 2016 Insurance Barometer Study
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Almost half of millennials say that they don’t buy life insurance
because they haven’t been approached by a life insurance agent.
Source: U.S. Life Insurance Ownership Study (2016), LIMRA
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256,735
144,600
1973 1975 1981 1983 1986 1989 1991 1993 1996 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Sources: NOT constant groups of companies, Census of U.S. Sales Personnel, LIMRA [1973-2010]
U.S. Insurance Sales Professions, LIMRA [2013 Agency-building and home service combined]
The number of affiliated agents has declined more than 40 percent
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34
30 29
28 26
34
37 39
41
44
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
100
200
300
400
2000 2010 2015 2020 2030
U.S. population (millions) Recruits (000) actual and projected Recruits (000) needed to keep up with population growth
The Recruiting Gap
• U.S. Census Bureau and LIMRA’s U.S Recruiting Trends
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Betterment now
offering human advice
with its robo
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84% 82% 77% 71%
16% 18% 23% 29%
1998 2004 2010 2016
Buyers are adapting to direct-to-consumer life insurance initiatives
Face-to-Face Direct Channels
Source: 2016 U.S. Life Insurance Ownership Study, LIMRA
More consumers buying directly from insurers
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Majority of Americans want to use technology in addition to a human advisor for financial guidance
54%
33%
11%
2%
A human relationship coupled withtechnology is ideal
Requires a human relationship
Can be fully automated (e.g. basedon client demographics, lifestage,
etc.)
Other
Source: Northwestern Mutual's 2016 Planning & Progress Study
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25
Emerging wealthy and high-net-worth investors
prefer “hybrid” investment advice (a combination of traditional advisory services and low-cost digital tools)
More satisfied More likely to seek help
Source: Insight: New Face of Wealth Management, Accenture
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Schwab combines robo with humans to
create hybrid advice model
With a $25,000 minimum, Schwab Intelligent Advisory will provide
clients a customized financial plan and ongoing live advice from
certified financial planners.
Source: Investment News, Dec. 13, 2016
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Raymond James to put
“Connected Advisor” robo
in advisers' hands
Connected Advisor is focused on three key areas: • Greater automation to help advisors more efficiently manage their businesses
and their clients’ basic investment management requirements so they can spend more time on building relationships and more fully understanding client needs.
• Increased collaboration through tools that support online communication and information sharing between advisors and their clients.
• Enhanced sophistication of proactive financial solutions through the use of big
data to provide advisors with insights into their practices and their clients’ needs.
Source: Raymond James Press Release, Jan. 30, 2017
and
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“Consumers without significant
wealth currently find it more
difficult to access advice or
support to meet their needs.”
- excerpt from final report
The middle market was left behind
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Regrets?
Tracey McDermott
Acting Chief Executive
Financial Conduct Authority
“The Financial Conduct Authority is
examining the possibility that commission
payments be allowed once again for
certain investment or pension products.”
Source: “Financial Conduct Authority considering return of commission payments,”
Financial Times, January 9, 2016
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Historical Interest Rate Trend
1.00%
3.00%
5.00%
7.00%
9.00%
11.00%
13.00%
15.00%
17.00%
1790 1805 1820 1835 1850 1865 1880 1895 1910 1925 1940 1955 1970 1985 2000 2015
Interest rates represent 10-year Treasury rates beginning in 1962 and a proxy for prior years.
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Bloomberg and Arbor Research
1791
Fed gov't
assumes
states’ debt
1842
8 of 26 states
default on debt
Civil
War
1918
End
of WWI
Depression
1945 End of WWII
1971
U.S.
abandons
gold
standard
1981
Volcker
rate hikes
2008
Great
Recession
begins
2016
1919
Spanish flu
epidemic
Sept. 11,
2001
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Rise of the Consumer Improving customer experience
across the enterprise
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Uber
AirBnB
Upwork
Task Rabbit
threadUP
Peerby
Millennials Drive the Sharing Economy
Rather than buy, Millennials share
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Carpooling? Need a designated driver? Borrowing a friend’s car?
Get insurance
only for the time
you need it!
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86% CEOs who believe technology will completely
reshape competition in the industry or have a
significant impact over the next five years.
Source: PwC's 20th CEO Survey
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Insurance companies using Amazon’s Echo to
connect consumers with agents
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Builds engagement
Identifies cross-selling
opportunities
Generates referrals from
friends and family
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Transamerica launches
voice ID for their help lines
“Implementing Voice Pass allows our
customers to communicate with us more
easily, and with added security…to
enrich the overall customer experience.”
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Agents engaging with their clients via social media
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Top reason
consumers shop for
life insurance
41%
cite life event
Source: LIMRA 2011 Buyer Nonbuyer Study
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“$1 million in coverage approved within 15 minutes…”
In partnership with Generation Life (a 50-year-old insurance company
that was recently acquired by Swiss Re), Quilt is targeting under-insured
population of millennials can have the coverage they need.
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Ladder sold $100 million in coverage in first 100 days*.
*only available in California
“We’ve found that the faster
we get a quote in front of
someone, the more likely
they are to buy.” - Jamie Hale, Ladder CEO
Source: Nearly 40% of adults don’t have life insurance — these startups are trying to change that,
MarketWatch, July 3, 2017
60% of its applications occur outside normal
business hours
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Fabric – a new online platform offering
accidental life insurance
Policyholders can ‘upgrade’ to a 20-year Term
Life policy, issued by Vantis Life
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Companies selling on the app include: American General, Assurity Life, Banner
Life, Mutual of Omaha, Principal Financial, Prudential Financial, Protective Life,
Sagicor Financial and SBLI
Tomorrow Ideas App offers
wills, trusts, and life
insurance in all 50 states.
“We've created an easy-to-use
phone app that lets people do
[insurance and estate planning]
together.”
- Dave Hanley, Tomorrow Ideas president/co-founder
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Lapetus introduces facial recognition into underwriting
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7 in 10 consumers say they would buy a simplified life insurance product
10%
18%
51%
21%
Very unlikely
Somewhat unlikely
Somewhat likely
Very likely
Likely to buy life insurance priced without a physical exam
Source: 2017 Barometer Study, LIMRA and Life Happens
72%
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Why consumers are interested in buying a product with simplified underwriting
45%
64%
64%
66%
67%
71%
It avoids the need for a face-to-faceconversation
It avoids the need to see a doctor
It avoids the need for a medical exam
It is unbiased and objective
It provides transparent explanations of riskclassification and product pricing
It is fast and easy
Benefits of simplified underwriting: Appeal to consumers
Consumers who felt the benefit was extremely or very appealing
Source: 2017 Barometer Study, LIMRA and Life Happens
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Launched in 2015 ─ $5 million in sales
Projected $30 million in 2016
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Expanded to 33 states in 2016
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Up to $1 million term life insurance coverage through
online application with competitive pricing and no medical
exam for a majority of people under 40.
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“Most people overestimate the change that will
occur in two years and underestimate the change
that will occur in 10 years.”
Source: The Road Ahead, 1996
- Bill Gates, 1996
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