Rob Brooker, Macaulay Institute

Biodiversity and Climate Change

Talk content:

• What is the risk from climate change for biodiversity?

• Are we communicating this risk?

• Is this leading to action?

Development of climate change adaptation strategies

Identification of risk

Communication of the risk

Action to minimise the risk (mitigation) or deal with its consequences (adaptation)

(inherent bias towards plants and terrestrial systems – apologies to lovers of marine animals…)

What is the risk

The distribution of species and composition of natural communities (biodiversity) is regulated by a suite of environmental filters, e.g. plant communities:

Possible climate effects

Changing environmental conditions

New interactions or changes in interactions

that already occur

Animal movement or seed production

Consequences of climate impacts on these processes

Changes in the interactions in communities

Climate regulates potentially dominant species. “Improved” climate (e.g. in arctic/alpine) – increased competition

Cornelissen et al (2001) J. Ecol

More competitive species become more abundant in arctic/alpine systems (e.g. shrubs and grasses)

A. New colonization

B. Patch filling

C. Individuals getting larger

e.g. Changes in abundance of shrubs in tundra systems C BA

CBA

Sturm et al. (2006) Global Change Biology

Increasing system productivity

Consequences of climate impacts on these processes

Changes in phenology (timing of biological events) alter competitive balance

Monitoring shows:

• Shift toward earlier spring

• Variation in response between species: early species are most responsive

Consequences of climate impacts on these processes

Dunnett & Grime (1999) Functional Ecology

warmed

control

Mean number of shoots of Cirsium arvense

Warming-induced shifts in phenology are related to dominance later in the season

Consequences of climate impacts on these processes

Loss or gain of species in communities, via direct climate limitations or impact on community processes, leads to range shifting

2050 Low 2050 HighNow

e.g. Climate envelope modelling of UK species

Berry et al. (2002)

Observed responses

Changes in timing of biological events

• Earlier bud burst and flowering in plants (particularly early-blooming and herbaceous species)• UK butterfly species appearing earlier• Amphibian and bird species breeding earlier• Migrating bird species arriving earlier• Increase in length of growing season by approx. 10 days (1962-1965)• Increased greenness of vegetation

Changes in survival, population sizes and local densities of organisms, and interactions in communities

• Increased winter survival of common bird species in UK • Increase in native species with a wide, southerly European distribution and decrease in species with a very northerly European distribution • Loss of cryptogams from expansion of more competitive species

Movement of species’ distributions (range shifting)

• Northward shift of bird species in UK• Northerly movement of holly Ilex aquifolium • Upward shift of the distributional limits of plant species including the tree line • Decline in specialist species in arctic areas

Selective impact of range shifting

• Selection of insect species with increased dispersal ability

Future responses

• Distributions of major species groups and biomes likely to shift polewards and toward higher altitudes

• Particularly high species turnover in the Mediterannean and Euro-Siberian regions

• High arctic environments on European mainland trapped between expanding southern vegetation zones and the Arctic Ocean

• Mountain species suffer enforced reduction of habitat area with increasing altitude and reduced capacity for latitudinal migration

• Reduced distribution of coastal and intertidal habitats from combined pressure of sea level rise and coastal development

The role of interactions in communities - disjunction between commonly interacting species and the development of novel interactions

Species are not consistent unchanging units - they may evolve in response to selective pressures during range shifting.

Interaction between increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate change - CO2

concentrations may regulate biotic processes and biodiversity responses will influence future changes in CO2 concentrations

Societal and economic responses, and future economic and political development - influence the development of sectoral activities that in turn influence biodiversity, both in terms of its status and its capacity to respond to climate change.

Introduction of invasive species including pest and disease vectors

Non-linear future responses - current trends in populations and ranges are based upon historical datasets: future climate scenarios, if realised, place natural systems within a climate context that they have not previously experienced.

Major sources of uncertainty

As we decrease the scale of the prediction, we increase the uncertainty – generalities are easy to predict but the specifics are very hard

Very rough outline of impacts and quick overview… communication and action?

Are we communicating this risk?

Generic problems of communicating ecological science…

or?

Some scientists are reticent communicators

Despite the efforts of those scientists that do try to communicate with the media, there’s an inherent species bias…

Are we communicating this risk?

However climate change is big news…

Are we communicating this risk?

However climate change is big news…

A dangerous thing ?

How are we communicating risk?

Normally neglected groups get a look-in…

Perhaps biodiversity messages do better in the climate change context

Some difficulties remain

• Communicating uncertainty – 1) complex and 2) provides hope?

• Even bad science can survive and get a high profile

Hope is nature's veil for hiding truth's nakedness.-- Alfred Nobel.

Does communication lead to action?

Biodiversity conservation loses out in the policy arena (EEA 2004)

Why?

“There is an urgent need to demonstrate that there is no dichotomy between economic growth and environmental protection” - Watson 2005

The perception that “non-action is a cheaper alternative”

Conflict with other sectors and particularly strong lobby groups

Does communication lead to action?

“There is an urgent need to demonstrate that there is no dichotomy between economic growth and environmental protection”. Watson 2005

Biodiversity conservation loses out in the policy arena (EEA 2004)

Why?

Lack of action might act as a further barrier to communication – i.e. “what’s the point?”

The perception that “non-action is a cheaper alternative”

Conflict with other sectors and particularly strong lobby groups

Emphasis is being placed on “hard” economic value of biodiversity – FP7…

Conclusions

• A clear risk from climate change for biodiversity

• Wide ranging and varied impacts detected and predicted

• Uncertainty is associated with these impacts

• Communicating the biodiversity science message within the context of climate change may be easier than normal

• Barriers still exist – hope and the concept of uncertainty

• Even with communication, action may not follow