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Roadmapping Mobile and Digital (Broadcasting) Convergence R&D 2015 移移移移移移移移移移移 2015 Prof. Dr. Bernhard R. Katzy Xiaofeng Ma

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Page 1: Roadmapping Mobile and Digital (Broadcasting) Convergence R&D 2015 2015 Prof. Dr. Bernhard R. Katzy Xiaofeng Ma CeTIM.org

Roadmapping Mobile and Digital (Broadcasting) Convergence R&D 2015

移动与数字融合成长曲线 2015

Prof. Dr. Bernhard R. Katzy Xiaofeng Ma

CeTIM.org

Page 2: Roadmapping Mobile and Digital (Broadcasting) Convergence R&D 2015 2015 Prof. Dr. Bernhard R. Katzy Xiaofeng Ma CeTIM.org

Presentation Outline

• ROADiBROM introduction

• Scenario of Future Media Industry Structure

• the ROADiBROM Brussels workshop

Page 3: Roadmapping Mobile and Digital (Broadcasting) Convergence R&D 2015 2015 Prof. Dr. Bernhard R. Katzy Xiaofeng Ma CeTIM.org

ROADiBROM isa joint European – China strategic roadmap about “Mobile and digital broadcasting convergence ”

The objective is to:develop a strategic roadmap for R&D priorities until 2015 in Europe and China.

Intended Outcome:Joint Europe and China Think-tank on digital convergence(NEM International Cooperation)

Funded by European Commission (IST-045437: ROADIBROM – SSA)

Background of Roadibrom

Page 4: Roadmapping Mobile and Digital (Broadcasting) Convergence R&D 2015 2015 Prof. Dr. Bernhard R. Katzy Xiaofeng Ma CeTIM.org

A balanced EU-China Project Consortium

Page 5: Roadmapping Mobile and Digital (Broadcasting) Convergence R&D 2015 2015 Prof. Dr. Bernhard R. Katzy Xiaofeng Ma CeTIM.org

Why digital convergence?

Media convergence

– Video – Voice – Data

Device convergence:

– Computer – TV – Mobile Phone

Technology Push:

Business & Societal Impact:

Changes of Individual livingEmerging business modelsImpact on society

Investigating:• What will the

converged world looks like?

• What are the critical choices we confront with?

• How to take the opportunities of the new emerging industry?

Page 6: Roadmapping Mobile and Digital (Broadcasting) Convergence R&D 2015 2015 Prof. Dr. Bernhard R. Katzy Xiaofeng Ma CeTIM.org

China has been increasing its role in the high tech industries,

e.g. 3G, Wireless Communication, and Mobile digital broadcasting etc.

China does not have a national standard for Mobile digital broadcasting

China verified as a big market for the mobile phone (480 Million users 2006)

The metropolian cities in China (e.g. Shanghai, Beijing) are ideal location for the deployment of mobile multimedia services.

Why China?

Strategic dialogue between EU and China is important NOW

Page 7: Roadmapping Mobile and Digital (Broadcasting) Convergence R&D 2015 2015 Prof. Dr. Bernhard R. Katzy Xiaofeng Ma CeTIM.org

Media Industry at the verge of disruptive change?!

Will it happen or not?How will it happen?What will come out?

(Moore 1991)

Page 8: Roadmapping Mobile and Digital (Broadcasting) Convergence R&D 2015 2015 Prof. Dr. Bernhard R. Katzy Xiaofeng Ma CeTIM.org

Disruptive Innovationimplies change of institutions, firms, industries…

Time

Rate ofInnovation

Process Innovation

ProductInnovation

FluidPattern

TransitionalPattern

SpecificPattern

Dominant Design

THE ABERNATHY MODEL OF DOMINANT DESIGN

Industry level change

20152007

Technology (Product) Innovation DECREASE,

Business and institutional Change just START!

How specific patterns look like? How they are developed?

Page 9: Roadmapping Mobile and Digital (Broadcasting) Convergence R&D 2015 2015 Prof. Dr. Bernhard R. Katzy Xiaofeng Ma CeTIM.org

Governments:

• Need to change of focus of R&D funding from technology development to social and service innovation

Companies:

• Incumbent probably disappear if no effective strategic change actions • entrants will emerge

What does it imply for Governments and industries

Signs:

• Nokia and Siemens carve out the network and phone business• Nokia is becoming a media company• Google is regarded as the most valuable media company though• not produce any content itself

Page 10: Roadmapping Mobile and Digital (Broadcasting) Convergence R&D 2015 2015 Prof. Dr. Bernhard R. Katzy Xiaofeng Ma CeTIM.org

Roadmap is a strategic management tool for International Innovation

Scenario

- Make expectations (hopes and fears) explicit

- Judge on likely hood of alternative scenarios

- Analyze implications

Identify gap between state-of-art and the specific Pattern

Time order Gaps (and R&D actions)= roadmap

The specific Pattern

Page 11: Roadmapping Mobile and Digital (Broadcasting) Convergence R&D 2015 2015 Prof. Dr. Bernhard R. Katzy Xiaofeng Ma CeTIM.org

Relevant dimensions of transformation

Customer

1. Service

2. Devices

4. Value Chains

3. Technology

Barriers

5. Regulatory Framework& Policies Changes

6. Disruptive Scenarios

Page 12: Roadmapping Mobile and Digital (Broadcasting) Convergence R&D 2015 2015 Prof. Dr. Bernhard R. Katzy Xiaofeng Ma CeTIM.org

1. Present Critical R&D challenges from China and European stakeholders

2. Strategic dialogue between workshop participants about the critical R&D issues (transformation process)

Workshop Objective

Page 13: Roadmapping Mobile and Digital (Broadcasting) Convergence R&D 2015 2015 Prof. Dr. Bernhard R. Katzy Xiaofeng Ma CeTIM.org

Presentation Outline

• ROADiBROM introduction

• Scenario of Future Media Industry Structure

• the ROADiBROM Brussels workshop

Page 14: Roadmapping Mobile and Digital (Broadcasting) Convergence R&D 2015 2015 Prof. Dr. Bernhard R. Katzy Xiaofeng Ma CeTIM.org

Technology view: • Seamless network(s) converge voice, video and data • in an invisible way for users, who will be able to • access services anywhere and anyhow.

User view: • Communities of users supported by • community coaches will become most active in • user centric service offerings with • renowned brands,

Future Media Industry Scenario

Page 15: Roadmapping Mobile and Digital (Broadcasting) Convergence R&D 2015 2015 Prof. Dr. Bernhard R. Katzy Xiaofeng Ma CeTIM.org

Device view:

•Ambient and context sensitive (sensor) will make devices “disappear” towards wearable /mobile miniature.

Value Chain View:

• Network / Telecom operators offer infrastructure, • Broadcasters will mutate in community coaches,• Content production cost will disappear with “crowd sourcing” and therefore DRM will vanish. • Advertisement will mutate from campaign design to managing 1-to-1 communications, which• will fund communities and dedicated professional content production

Future Media Industry Scenario

Page 16: Roadmapping Mobile and Digital (Broadcasting) Convergence R&D 2015 2015 Prof. Dr. Bernhard R. Katzy Xiaofeng Ma CeTIM.org

Early Examples of of a digital converged world

Execution Saddam Hussein

Technology:- Filmed with mobile phone- Distributed within hours by YouTube

Industry Change:- Production cost “Zero”- Distributions cost “Zero”- No journalist involved:

freedom of interpretation / uncontrollable- No broadcasting stations

Page 17: Roadmapping Mobile and Digital (Broadcasting) Convergence R&D 2015 2015 Prof. Dr. Bernhard R. Katzy Xiaofeng Ma CeTIM.org

Presentation Outline

• ROADiBROM introduction

• Scenario of Future Media Industry Structure

• the ROADiBROM Brussels workshop

Page 18: Roadmapping Mobile and Digital (Broadcasting) Convergence R&D 2015 2015 Prof. Dr. Bernhard R. Katzy Xiaofeng Ma CeTIM.org

European Commission is promoting DVH-H standard in Europe…

Several pilot projects using DVB-H standard have been and plan to run in Europe:

•Finland•Italy•UK•Germany•Austria•France•…

The status of European development of Mobile digital broadcasting

Page 19: Roadmapping Mobile and Digital (Broadcasting) Convergence R&D 2015 2015 Prof. Dr. Bernhard R. Katzy Xiaofeng Ma CeTIM.org

The Brussels workshop on 11th Oct

35 participants from 10 Countries: •Broadcasters, Telecom operators, consumer elecontronics, researchers and consultants etc.

Page 20: Roadmapping Mobile and Digital (Broadcasting) Convergence R&D 2015 2015 Prof. Dr. Bernhard R. Katzy Xiaofeng Ma CeTIM.org

Discussion results of ´”Service and Value Chain”

Context of (future) use

Everybody is a journalist

Privacy

Quality of Service & ease of use

Value Chains

Business models for infrastructure

Revenue models for the media industry

Power of brands

Page 21: Roadmapping Mobile and Digital (Broadcasting) Convergence R&D 2015 2015 Prof. Dr. Bernhard R. Katzy Xiaofeng Ma CeTIM.org

The Overview of the ROADiBROM activities

European workshops China Workshops

11th Oct 2007, Brussels:•Technology and Devices•Service and Value Chain

2nd and 3rd Nov 2007, Shanghai•Technology and Devices•Service and Value Chain

30th Jan 2008, Amsterdam•Policy and regulation•Service and Value Chain

6th and 7th Dec 2007, Beijing•Policy and regulation•Service and Value Chain

18th March 2008, Hannover (TBC)

•Consolidation of results

March 2008, Shanghai•Consolidation of results

www.ve-forum.org/digital convergence

Page 22: Roadmapping Mobile and Digital (Broadcasting) Convergence R&D 2015 2015 Prof. Dr. Bernhard R. Katzy Xiaofeng Ma CeTIM.org

谢谢 !

Thank you!