risky business: guide to risk management
TRANSCRIPT
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Introduction to Risk Management :
Michael Le
16 April 2008
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Outline
1. What is Risk?
2. Risk is Everywhere
3. Risk is Not Equal
4. Measuring Risk
5. Decision Making with Risk
6. Risk Management Systems
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What is Risk?
The Chinese symbol for risk is a combination
of both danger and opportunity
Risk = P(undesired event) x Consequence
In finance, risk is the variability of actual
returns around the expected return
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Market Risk
Risk that value of investment will decrease due to
changes in market factors
Common types of market risk
Interest Rate Risk
Equity Risk
Currency Risk
Measured with Value at Risk (VaR)
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Credit Risk
Risk of loss due to default on payment
on a loan or other types of credit
Structured credit risk is measured with
the Merton Model or asset value model
Credit risk is commonly associated with
credit ratings.
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Operational Risk
Differs from market and credit risk
“The risk of loss resulting from
inadequate or failed internal processes,
people and systems or from external
events”
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Examples of Operational
Risk Internal Fraud
External Fraud
Employment Practices and Workplace Safety
Clients, Products, & Business
Damage to Physical Assets
Business Disruption & Systems Failures
Execution, Delivery, & Process Management
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Decision Making with Risk
Decisions making in finance requires a
degree of risk taking with it these are
some of the areas where risk affects
decision making
Investment Choices
Corporate Finance
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Investment Choices
Investment choices looks at the different
assets to come up with a portfolio
design for the risk aversion of an
investor
Asset Allocation
Asset Selection
Performance Evaluation
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Corporate Finance
Corporate finance is related to decisions
that corporations make related to
running the business.
Investment decisions
Financing decisions
Dividend decisions
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Risk is Everywhere
Risks will come from places one would
least expect it and in a form that them to
come from and in unanticipated forms.
Good risk management is to be able to
adapt when confronted with the
unexpected.
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Risk from Global Exposure
The Chinese Correction
27 February 2007
With rumors that China would raise the
interest rate to curb inflation, the
Shanghai Stock Exchange dropped 9%.
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Result of the Chinese
Correction
DOW Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)
fell 416 points
This was the largest single day fall since
the 9/11 attack in 2001 where the DJIA
fell 684 points.
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Risk from Different Businesses
Best example of this is with the sub-prime mortgages and collateral debt obligations (CDOs)
In 2000, Credit Suisse issued a $340.7 million CDO.
It was a mix of junk bonds and sub prime home loans
By 2006, the CDO losses totaled $125 million
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Credit Suisse CDO - 2000
Amount (in millions) Tranche Rating
$293.5 Senior AAA
$13.0 Mezzanine A
$17.0 Mezzanine BBB-
$11.2 Equity Not Rated
$6.0 Equity Not Rated
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Credit Suisse CDO - 2006
Amount (in millions) Tranche Rating
$220.5 Senior AAA
$0 Mezzanine A
$0 Mezzanine BBB-
$0 Equity Not Rated
$0 Equity Not Rated
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Subprime Primer
Banks were originally not allowed to
invest in mortgages because they were
not investment grade.
In the 1980s, banks started to package
mortgages into collateral debt
obligations through securitization.
Thus mortgages are now were able to
be traded and invested.
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Subprime mortgages are those from
buyers with weak credit and are usually
charged 2 percentage points higher than
those with good ratings
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Exotic mortgages such as no-doc loans
allowed people with bad credit to take
loans without documentation to show
evidence of income or savings
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Big banks buy the loans from the
lenders and small banks and securitize
the loans into CDOs with the help of
rating companies to achieve the desired
rating.
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By engineering products with high
ratings (AAA), investors liked CDOs
because of the high returns compared to
bonds of same rating.
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To add noise to the confusion, CDOs
can be multiplied with CDO squareds
and CDO cubeds
This only hid the underlying assets even
more.
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As subprime mortgages defaulted by
people who had bad credit. The CDOs
began to default as well.
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Due to the complex nature of CDOs it
was hard to see what was the
underlying assets.
We just believed the credit risk ratings
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Credit Ratings
Common terms
Issue Rating
Issuer Rating
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Who
Fitch Ratings (U.S.)
Moody's (U.S.)
Standard & Poor's (U.S.)
A. M. Best (U.S.)
Baycorp Advantage (Australia)
Dominion Bond Rating Service (Canada)
Pacific Credit Rating (Peru)
Egan-Jones Ratings Company (U.S.)
Capital Intelligence Ltd (Cyprus)
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Credit Ratings are Not
Equal Ratings from one type of instrument do
not translate directly for comparison with
another instrument
“In CDO –land, there’s almost no
difference between Baa and Ba” –
Arturo Cifuentes, former Moody’s
executive
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Corporate bonds rated Baa (Moody’s)
from 1983 to 2005
Default rate 2.2 percent over 5 year periods
CDOs rated Baa (Moody’s) from 1983 to
2005
Default rate 24 percent over 5 year periods
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Rating agencies work with banks
In financial engineering for securitization,
rating agencies consult with banks on how
to structure the CDO
CDOs aren’t regulated like bonds. They are
sold in private placements and current
values are not posted
Financial regulators effectively outsourced
the monitoring of CDOs to rating agencies
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Analyze the Money
Revenue between rating bonds and
CDOs (S&P)
Corporate bonds - $212,500
CDOs - $600,000
Revenue from analyzing CDOs in 2006
Moodys - $204 million
Fitch Ratings - $480.5 million
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Issues with CDO ratings
Garbage in, garbage out
Due to complex nature (many moving
parts), must account for possibility of
many things going wrong.
Financial products are being more
complex for current methodologies.
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“The credit ratings and observations
contained herein are solely statements
of opinion and not statements of fact or
recommendations to purchase, hold, or
sell any securities or make any other
investment decisions.
Accordingly, any user of the information
contained herein should not rely on any
credit rating or other opinion contained
herein in making any investment
decision.” – S&P
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Credit Ratings
The lack of transparency and potential
conflict of interest makes it hard for
ratings to be taken at face value.
Good risk management would involve
understanding how the products were
rated.
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Measuring Risk
Quantifying and measuring risk is one of
the key points of risk management
Focus will be on common risk
measurements
Value at Risk (VaR)
Profit and Loss (PnL)
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Value at Risk (VaR)
Focuses on volatility both up and down
VaR statistic is made up of 3 parts
Time Period
Confidence Interval
Loss amount (percentage)
“What is the most I can lose with 95%
confidence in the next month?”
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VaR Calculation
3 ways of calculating:
Historical
Variance Covariance
Monte Carlo Simulation
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VaR: Historical Model
Assumes history will repeat itself
Arranges historical returns into buckets
from order of worst to best returns
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Investopedia
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VaR: Variance Covariance
Method
Assumes that stock returns are normally distributed
Variance measures how actual returns vary around the expected return
Covariance tells us how two assets are correlated
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Normal Distribution
http://www.ifa.com/images/12steps/step8/f8-1.jpg
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Variance
σP2= wA
2 σA2 + wB
2 σB2 + 2wAwB σAσBρAB
Correlation Coefficient
ρAB = COVAB
σAσB
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Portfolio with 2 assets A and B
70% invested in A
30% invested in B
Standard Deviation of A (σA) is 10%
Standard Deviation of B (σB) is 20%
Correlation coefficient (ρAB) is 0.5
σP2= (0.7) 2(10) 2 + (0.3) 2(20) 2 +
2(0.7)(0.3)(10)(20)(.05) = 127
Portfolio Std. Dev = σP = 11.27%
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Investopedia
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Putting it all together
Build normal distribution
Variance = σP2
Standard Deviation = σP
Mean (weighted average rate of return)
Confidence Std. Dev. Calculation Result
95% 2.64% 1.65 x 2.64 4.36%
99% 2.64% 2.33 x 2.64 6.16%
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VaR: Monte Carlo
Simulations Develop model for future stock prices
Run multiple hypothetical trials
Randomly generate trials (random
inputs)
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Investopedia
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Comparison
Monte Carlo – Complex
Historical Method – Requires gathering
historical data and number crunching
Variance Covariance – Easiest because
number are on readily available
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What time is it?
To convert one VaR of one time period
to another time period
Multiply standard deviation by square
root of the time period.
Recalculate
Ex. σDaily = 2.5%
σmonthly = σDaily x √20 = 11.18%
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Profit and Loss (PnL)
Statement that summarizes
the revenues, costs and expenses
incurred during a specific period of time.
DAILY PnL $9,000
Market Moves
Swap Rates $25,000
FX Changes -$100,000
Rates resets $5,000
Trading $80,000
Amendments -$1,000
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It’s market close time, suddenly you
hear
“How’s my PnL?”
“Let me check”
Now we will look at how it put all
together in a bank
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Risk Management Systems
What is it trying to achieve
Generate risk number and figures
VaR
PnL
Produce reports
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Basic Flow
System reads security positions for book
Read the closing values
Reads the individual trades in the book
Calculate the mark to market value of
the trade
Calculate PnL,VaR, Sensitivities
Done
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Reality
There are thousands of books, hundreds of trading desks and different business units
Different ways of storing and sending data.
Different close times for data
Must be calculated for next morning (T+1PnL)
Reports generated within one hour of market close is called T+0PnL
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Thank you
This concludes the presentation