risk management comparison

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2013/09/13 (Project Risk Management) P:1/45

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Compare Risk Management concepts between ESH and PM

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Page 1: Risk management comparison

2013/09/13 (Project Risk Management) P:1/45

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �

� � �� � �� � �

Page 2: Risk management comparison

2013/09/13 (Project Risk Management) P:2/45

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � ��� �� ��� �� ��� �� ��� �� ��A project is a unique effort

�� �� � ! "#with defined

beginning and end,$% �& '() *+ ,

a specific deliverable,

-. �/ 01and specific resources.23 �4 56 78 “

9 :; �45< :; �= >? ? % @A B "? % C D �E FG H I” J

1. K LM G �+ NO PQ RS G

/T ,G �U P

2.

: - . �V WX C D< Y ' )*+ ,

3.

Z[ \] Q ^_ ] :S ` abc de Q fg hi jkl � m n op �q r s

=>t uv w x l y zt l y u{ uv zt |} ~��� � m n op � �q r st �� �� �� � � �� �t � �� �� �( � �� �� �)t �� � ~�

Page 3: Risk management comparison

2013/09/13 (Project Risk Management) P:3/45

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �BS-25999-1:2006Risk:

something that might happen and its effect

s

on the achievement of objectives �Risk is a concept that denotes the precise probability of specific eventualities. Technically, the notion of risk is independent from the notion of value and, as such, eventualities may have both beneficial and adverse consequences. However, in general usage the convention is to focus only on potential negative impact to some characteristic of value that may arise from a future event.RISK can be defined as “the threat or probability that an action or event will adversely or beneficially affect an organization's ability to achieve its objectives”[1]. In simple terms risk is ‘Uncertainty of Outcome’, either from pursuing a future positive opportunity, or an existing negative threat in trying to achieve a current. From Wikipedia

� �� �� �  ¡¢ £¤ ¥¦ §¨© � § ª« ¬ ­®¯ � § °± ²³ ´µ ¶·¸ � § ¹ º» ¼½ ¾ ¿À Á ± ½ ÃÄ § Å ÆÇ È ÉÊ Ë

Ì ÍÎ Ï ÐÑ ÒÓ

klÔ Õ Ö× m n Ø Ù ��

=>t Ú m n ÚÛÜ (

ÝÞ ß | � àá

)t â à= â n+ àát àá � �=>

l y { ãä åæ Øç ä å��Ô Õ� m n Øèé �t êë ìí =>

îï � �t ð ñ � ß |òó ôõö ÷� øù

Page 4: Risk management comparison

2013/09/13 (Project Risk Management) P:4/45

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �Ì ÍÎ Ï ÐÑ ÒÓ

ú ûú ûú ûú ûüü üüþýÿ� ¥¦ � �� ��� � �� ¢ ��

ÿ�� �� � � ���� �¢ � � ��

� ÿ� � �� � � !" # $¢ %& ' �� � � ( )

the cost of something is what you give up to get it

*

¥¦ + �� � � ,¢ -.ex:

/ 01 2 34 5 6 ¡7 8 5 6 9: ;< +� < 4 = � � �=>

� � � �>

Ex:

? � @ �4 � < AB CD E F�

Page 5: Risk management comparison

2013/09/13 (Project Risk Management) P:5/45

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �

G HI JK L

MN O PQ PR S

MN O TU VW XY ZQ [\ ]MN O R Z S ^Q ^\

MN O PQ P_ Q ` S

ab cd ef gh

1.

ij N O Z f gh kl mn ij N Oo pqN O Z f gr st uvw xy z{ N O| V}~{ �� uv �} ��

2.

��

/

�� f gh l mn �� N Oo � q N OZ f gr st �� fg{ � � f g�

��� �� ��� � ��� ��� ���  ¡

Ì ÍÎ Ï ÐÑ ÒÓ

Page 6: Risk management comparison

2013/09/13 (Project Risk Management) P:6/45

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �

¢ £¤¢ £¤¢ £¤¢ £¤ ¥¦ § ¨© ª «¬ ­® ¯ °¯ °¯ °¯ ° ±Risk ²² ²² Severity ³³ ³³ Likelihood ³³ ³³ frequency´ µ ¶· ¸v ¹ � �º » »¼ _ º ½¾ T¿ ¼ À Á �o h

Risk ²² ²² Severity ³³ ³³ Likelihood  SafetyÃ Ä ¶· ÅÆ Ç �È ÉÊ ËÌ Í f g Z ÎÏ ÐÑ

Hint:

ÒÓ Î Ì ÍÔ Õ

Page 7: Risk management comparison

2013/09/13 (Project Risk Management) P:7/45

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �Ì ÍÎ Ï ÐÑ ÒÓ Issue

Ö× § � / � 6Øex:

ÙÚÛ ÚÜ ÝProbability § Þ ßà áâ ã� 6Ø 4 ä Þ ßå æ ;¢ 6Ø � ç

(

âè éê ëì) ex

íî ïUncertainty § � Þ ß �� �6Ø + 6Ø � ç

ð ñòóð ñòóð ñòóð ñòó(Uncertainty)

ô õöô õöô õöô õöt ÷ øù ú Ø ûü ûý �þ ÿ �� �ü ý � �

(

�� �� � ø�

=>

� ú� � � �� �

)t �ü { �� �ý � � Ù� ò à �ü �

(

�� ��u� �

+

�� � �

+

� � { ! �

)t Unexpected Consequence(

" �� � #$ %� ù� &'

)t { () ü � �* + , �� Ø-é .} /

Page 8: Risk management comparison

2013/09/13 (Project Risk Management) P:8/45

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �01 Ô Õ Ì Í 234 ô5 67 834 ô5 67 834 ô5 67 834 ô5 67 8

Risk=Likelihood*Severityt 9 : ; y �< => zt ?é @A { () �

(Uncertainty)+

B C

(Objective)=Risk D <E F { () � �{ ()ü � z

(

G : ; yHI JKL m n � �� ) M

)

Page 9: Risk management comparison

2013/09/13 (Project Risk Management) P:9/45

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �

NONO NONO P Q ¯ °RP Q ¯ °RP Q ¯ °RP Q ¯ °R STST STSTU VWX W YZ [\ ]^ _`` `` a ba ba ba bc dc dc dc d

01 Ô Õ Ì Í 2

e f ¥¦¥¦ ¢ ghi j kl:

Cause mnmn mnmnoo oo pqr st uvpqr st uvpqr st uvpqr st uv

Ex� Z&w xyz { M ! 8|}~ ��� ��� �

Risk �� ��� � ��� ��� �r� � ��� ��� �r� � ��� ��� �r� � ��� ��� �r��� � ������ � ������ � ������ � ���

Ex� �� ��� � �< � �X�1� ��   ¡

Effect �� ��¢ �£ ¤¢ �£ ¤¢ �£ ¤¢ �£ ¤

Ex� / ,¥¦ < §¨© ª

«¬ ­ gh ®¯°± ² ³´ µ ¶· ¸¹ º»¼ ½¾ ¿À Á ¹ ð± ² ³´ µ ¶· ¸¹ º»¼ ½¾ ¿À Á ¹ ÃÄż ½Æ ¾ ¿À Á¹ ÇÈÉ ÊË Ì µ ¶· ¸Äż ½Æ ¾ ¿À Á¹ ÇÈÉ ÊË Ì µ ¶· ¸

Page 10: Risk management comparison

2013/09/13 (Project Risk Management) P:10/45

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �

¯ °R Í Î aÏ Ð¯ °R Í Î aÏ Ð¯ °R Í Î aÏ Ð¯ °R Í Î aÏ Ð

Event A’s Risk ²² ²² Likelihood ³³ ³³ Severity

ÑÒ ÑÒ

-

ÓÔÕÖ ×Ø

/

ÙÚ ÛÜ

/

ÝÞßàáâ ãäå æç èé ê ëáâ ãäå æç èé ê ëáâ ãäå æç èé ê ëáâ ãäå æç èé ê ë ìíî ïð ñ ñóòõôöø÷

Y/N

ùõú

CPF

ûýü

NAE

þõÿ�������

�������� �

(E)15810

���������

(P) 1510

������� �

(S)ABCD

þ ÿ � �� �(

�� � �� �� �� � � !)

" #$ %& '( ) *+ ,-

Visual Photonics Epitaxy Co., Ltd.

./ 01 23 45 65 65 65 67 89 :; <= >? @ AB CDDetection &

Protection E FG H I <J K LM NO ? PQ RS TU V

Likelihood W

Severity

XY

(

Z [Z [Z [Z [

&

\] ^_ `a b cd ef gh ij k\] ^_ `a b cd ef gh ij k\] ^_ `a b cd ef gh ij k\] ^_ `a b cd ef gh ij k

)

01 Ô Õ Ì Í 2

Page 11: Risk management comparison

2013/09/13 (Project Risk Management) P:11/45

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �

l m nl m nl m nl m n

Cause o pq r st u vw xy r Risk o z {| }} }} Effect ~~ ~~ �� � �

01 Ô Õ Ì Í 2

Page 12: Risk management comparison

2013/09/13 (Project Risk Management) P:12/45

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �

l m nl m nl m nl m n

Cause

���� ���� }} }} ���� ���� � �� ��� �� ��� �� ��� �� �� }} }} Risk ~~ ~~ � ��� ��� ��� �� }} }} Effect ~~ ~~ �� � �

01 Ô Õ Ì Í 2Cause ���� ���� �� �� �� �� � ���� �� � ���� �� � ���� �� � ��

Risk �� �� �� �� ��  �� �� ��  �� �� ��  �� �� ��  

Effect �� �� ¡� ¢ £¡� ¢ £¡� ¢ £¡� ¢ £

Page 13: Risk management comparison

2013/09/13 (Project Risk Management) P:13/45

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �

l m nl m nl m nl m n

Cause

���� ���� }} }} ���� ���� � �� ��� �� ��� �� ��� �� �� }} }} Risk ~~ ~~ � ��� ��� ��� �� }} }} Effect ~~ ~~ �� � �

01 Ô Õ Ì Í 2

Page 14: Risk management comparison

2013/09/13 (Project Risk Management) P:14/45

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �

¤¥ ¯ ° Í ¦ R ¤¤¥ ¯ ° Í ¦ R ¤¤¥ ¯ ° Í ¦ R ¤¤¥ ¯ ° Í ¦ R ¤

Case §§ §§ ¨© Í ¦ R ¤ ª« ¬­¨© Í ¦ R ¤ ª« ¬­¨© Í ¦ R ¤ ª« ¬­¨© Í ¦ R ¤ ª« ¬­ ®¯ ° ±² ³´ µ ¶ ·¸ ¯ ¹ º

»¼

/

½¾

: ¿À

Á

Â

CPF NAE

Ã

A

ÄÅ

WS

Æ Ç

WR

ÈÉ

TA

Ê Ç

ER

ËÌ

PC

Í Î

m

Ï Ð

d

ÑÒ

ch

ÓÔe

ÕÖo

×Øv

ÙÚr

Û Üt

ÝÞ

oe

ßà

x

áâ

hãä

(N)åãä

(A)æç

(E)

èé êëì í î ïðñ ò óôõ ö÷ø ù ëì í îúû üôý þ ÿ� ��

� � �

/

�� �

:

Event A’s Risk ²² ²² frequency ³³ ³³ Likelihood ³³ ³³ Severity ³³ ³³ � ��� ��� ��� ��

� �� �� � �� � �� � � �� � ! "# $ %& '( )* +, -. /0 1Event

2

34 34

-

56 78 9:

/

;< =>

/

?@A BCD EF GH I JK L MCD EF GH I JK L MCD EF GH I JK L MCD EF GH I JK L M NOP QR S SUTWVXZY

Y/N

[W\CPF

]_^NAE

`WaZbcWdZe

fWgh_i

jWkZlm

(E)15810

nZopmWqWr

(P) 1510

stWuvZw x

(S)ABCD

` a b cyz

(

{|} b~ st uv w x��

)

� ��� ��� � �� ��

Visual Photonics Epitaxy Co., Ltd.

01 Ô Õ Ì Í 2

Page 15: Risk management comparison

2013/09/13 (Project Risk Management) P:15/45

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �

� � �� �� �

event

�� ¯ ° Í Î� �¯ ° Í Î� �¯ ° Í Î� �¯ ° Í Î� ��

� �� � -. � �, �   "¡ ¢£ ¤¥ ¦, § ¨ ¤2455VPEC

© ª« ¬­ ®¯ ° �   ¦ � � -. ±² ¤³ ´ ¤

2455VPEC

µ¶ ¬­ ®¯ ° �  · � � -. ±² ¤³ ´ ¤Risk ²² ²² Severity ³³ ³³ Likelihood ³³ ³³ frequency

¸¹ Risk ²² ²² Severity ³³ ³³ Likelihood º Safety

Hint:

»¼

/

½¾ ¿À »Á

Detection/Protection=>

 Ã

SafetyEvent:

ÄÅ ÆÇ È É

½¾ ½Ê

/

ËÌ ÍÎÏ ÐÑ ÒÓ ÔÕ

=>Â Ã

FrequencyEvent:

ÔÕ Ö× ØÙHow ? Improvement

Ú ÛÜ ÝÚ ÛÜ ÝÚ ÛÜ ÝÚ ÛÜ ÝÞÞ ÞÞ Ú ßà áÚ ßà áÚ ßà áÚ ßà á ââ ââ

Page 16: Risk management comparison

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� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �

� � �� �� �

event

�� ¯ ° Í Î� �¯ ° Í Î� �¯ ° Í Î� �¯ ° Í Î� ��

½¾

/

»¼ ¿À ÄÅ ãä åæ ç èé ç êë ìí îï ðñ Éò ó ô¹

Risk ²² ²² Severity ³³ ³³ Likelihoodõ Â Ã

Safety

g h ög h ög h ög h ö

=>Detection/

÷ø ùú # � ûüûü ûüûü ý ± /þ , ÿ� � �ÿ� � �ÿ� � �ÿ� � �

=>Protection

� �� � �� � 1� � 2# � � � � � ý ± /þ ÿ� �� �� �ÿ� �� �� �ÿ� �� �� �ÿ� �� �� �Hint:

»¼/

½¾ ¿À »Á

Detection/Protection=>

 Ã

SafetyEvent:

ÄÅ ÆÇ È É

½¾ ½Ê

/

ËÌ ÍÎÏ ÐÑ ÒÓ ÔÕ

=>Â Ã

FrequencyEvent:

ÔÕ Ö× ØÙHow ? Improvement

Page 17: Risk management comparison

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� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �

� � �� �� �

event

�� ¯ ° Í Î� �¯ ° Í Î� �¯ ° Í Î� �¯ ° Í Î� ��

½¾ ½Ê ÔÕ

/

»¼

PM

�� Ï ÐÑ ÒÓ ÔÕ ãä � Ô �� ò �� �� ì� Õ �í îïðñ Éò ó ô� �Ñ ¹

Risk ²² ²² Severity ³³ ³³ Likelihoodõ Â Ã

Frequency

g h ög h ög h ög h ö 1 ! ( ", #$ ¦% « & '( ) 2

=>

ÔÕ * +, -

/

ÔÕ ./ , �/

0 12 ÔÕ

/

34 5 ôò 67 89 ý ± :; , ÿ� � �ÿ� � �ÿ� � �ÿ� � �

=>

ÒÓ <= >? � ÔÕ @A <= BC í D E 2 89 ý ± :; /þ ÿ � � �� �ÿ � � �� �ÿ � � �� �ÿ � � �� �»¼

/

½¾ ¿À »Á

Detection/Protection=>

 Ã

SafetyEvent:

ÄÅ ÆÇ È É

½¾ ½Ê

/

ËÌ ÍÎÏ ÐÑ ÒÓ ÔÕ

=>Â Ã

FrequencyEvent:

ÔÕ Ö× ØÙHow ? Improvement

Page 18: Risk management comparison

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� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �01 Ô Õ Ì Í 2

Documentation Reviews

FG HI

1.1J BK L FG

(

M NO PQ RS

/

TUFG òSOP=Risk)

1.2

J FG V/ ì WX ç YZ [ò \ ]

1.3

J � Ô^ _/ ì WX

(WBS: work breakdown structure)

PS

¹@ 3 ì` ab c d ef gh F ij

c k ìl mn o <p q r Ps tu vwx 0 ðy í îb z [

*

{ |} ~

Page 19: Risk management comparison

2013/09/13 (Project Risk Management) P:19/45

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �01 Ô Õ Ì Í 2

Checklist Analysis@ 3 ì` a� B� L�� �b � � Â

Page 20: Risk management comparison

2013/09/13 (Project Risk Management) P:20/45

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �01 Ô Õ Ì Í 2

s �� � �� ç �» �G <= b z��

( �What if )

Page 21: Risk management comparison

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� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �01 Ô Õ Ì Í 2

�� �� �} �� � �� �� �

: 4M+1E(

�� �� �  ¡ ¢

…)

Page 22: Risk management comparison

2013/09/13 (Project Risk Management) P:22/45

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �01 Ô Õ Ì Í 2

5.

£ ¤¥ó ô �¦

event tree

¸

why tree § � ¨© ª« ì¬ ­ £ ¤u v

b c ® ¯meta language analysis

Page 23: Risk management comparison

2013/09/13 (Project Risk Management) P:23/45

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �01 Ô Õ Ì Í 2 °±

• SW

< ² ` ç ³´ �´ l• OT

<µ ` w ¶ . �·•

§S

¸¹O

º»T

мW

½¾ ¿À ¸Á• SWOT

� <Ã Ä � P h 5± ÅÆ

• SWOT

V/ Çp _ È ìÉÊ Ô §

Page 24: Risk management comparison

2013/09/13 (Project Risk Management) P:24/45

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �Ì ÍÔ Õ ËÌ Î ÍÎ

1

Page 25: Risk management comparison

2013/09/13 (Project Risk Management) P:25/45

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �Ì ÍÔ Õ ËÌ Î ÍÎ

1

d e P h ìí îÏ A w РÑÒ

(

ÓÔ ÕÖ× ì

)

Ø É

@ 3 ì` aw Ù < ¨© Pb ÚÛ í îÜ c ÝÞ

Page 26: Risk management comparison

2013/09/13 (Project Risk Management) P:26/45

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �

ß �à ¨© � ì � � Pstu vw á �» â� ãäå æ Íd e P h �ç ìí îè [Ü cu é

Ì ÍÔ Õ ËÌ Î ÍÎ

2

Page 27: Risk management comparison

2013/09/13 (Project Risk Management) P:27/45

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �Ì ÍÔ Õ ËÌ Î ÍÎ

2

Page 28: Risk management comparison

2013/09/13 (Project Risk Management) P:28/45

� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �

êë � ì íî ï

ðòñ ó ôõ ö ÷ø ù úû üýþ ÿ �� �� �

�ñ �� � �� � �� �� ý

Ì ÍÎ � �

Page 29: Risk management comparison

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� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �

� �� � ¯ °R �� ��� �� � ¯ °R �� ��� �� � ¯ °R �� ��� �� � ¯ °R �� �� �� �� ø ! " üý # $% &' ( )* + ,

Ì ÍÎ � �

Page 30: Risk management comparison

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� � � �� � � � �� � � � � �� �� � � � � � � � � � � �Ì ÍÎ � �

- ./ T d0 R 12 34- ./ T d0 R 12 34- ./ T d0 R 12 34- ./ T d0 R 12 34

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