risk managed funds – quarterly update hector kilpatrick, chief investment officer 27 th january...
DESCRIPTION
US Manufacturing & Services ISM Services ISM in Green Source: ISM, Bloomberg Time (1999 => 2015)TRANSCRIPT
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Risk Managed Funds – quarterly update
Hector Kilpatrick, Chief Investment Officer27th January 2016
for professional advisers only
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Welcome
The objectives of this session are to explain:
• why we see echoes of 2007 & Q1 2008 in the markets
• why we are becoming less bullish on Japanese equities
• why a US ‘goldilocks’ economy is essential to support market levels
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US Manufacturing & Services ISM
Services ISM in Green
Source: ISM, BloombergTime (1999 => 2015)
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US Manufacturing ISM & recessions
ISM <45…… 13x since WW2, 11x recession
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US manufacturing and trade inventories/sales
Time (2006 => 2015)Source: Bloomberg, US Census Bureau
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US credit cycle – lending to corporates
Time (2001 => 2015)Source: Bloomberg, Fed. Reserve
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Barclays US High Yield spread index
Time (2006 => 2016)Source: Bloomberg, Barclays
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UK saving rate
Time (1980 => 2015)Source: Bloomberg, ONS
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UK Halifax Residential Prices (all dwellings, NSA)
Time (1996 => 2015)Source: Bloomberg, Lloyds
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Japanese Yen vs USD
Time (2006 => 2016)Source: Bloomberg
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10 year Japanese Gov. debt yield (%)
Time (2006 => 2016)Source: Bloomberg
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BoJ’s holdings in Japanese equity ETFs
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US Bank sector rel performance vs S&P500
Time (2014 => 2015)Source: Bloomberg, KBW
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Portfolio positioning
Heavy: Light:Absolute return Equities
Strategic bond Gilts
Cash Property
Source: Cornelian
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Risk Managed Funds
* The Managed Income Fund has not been rated by Distribution Technology but is managed by Cornelian to sit below upper limit of DT5. Managed Income Fund was launched on 20th March 2015 and it has not yet been included into the Defaqto Risk Targeted Fund Family. ** The investment team constructs the portfolio to ensure that the expected volatility of each fund stays below the maximum expected volatility level ascribed, in normal circumstances.*** Net of fees, over the investment cycle.
Source: Cornelian, DT, Defaqto
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Performance to end December 2015
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Risk Warning
17
Cornelian Asset Managers Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. This material is directed at professional financial advisers only.
You should remember that the value of investments and the income derived there from may fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount that you invest. Past performance is not a guide to future returns. Fund performance figures do not include any initial charge; if this is paid it will reduce performance from that shown.
Opinions expressed whether in general or both on the performance of individual securities and in a wider economic context represent the views of Cornelian Asset Managers Limited at the time of preparation. They are subject to change and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Cornelian Asset Managers Limited and connected companies, clients, directors, employees and other associates, may have a position in any security, or related financial instrument, issued by a company or organisation mentioned in this document.