Risk Frameworks for the Simultaneous Intersection of Infrastructure

Interdependencies, Infrastructure Usage, and Extreme Events

Society for Risk Analysis Webinar

June 23, 2017

Professor Rae Zimmerman

New York University

Wagner Graduate School of Public Service

rae.zimmerman@nyu.edu

Scope and Objectives Introduction • Infrastructure-based services are becoming more concentrated, interdependent,

and located in areas vulnerable to disruptions • These interconnections include functional, spatial, cyber, and other

relationships. • They are often choke points.

• Society is increasingly dependent on infrastructure services influenced by settlement patterns and other factors

• Extreme events affecting these basic services are increasing. Objectives • To begin using a risk lens to understand and manage these three dimensions

simultaneously • To provide some choices and solutions

• Decentralized infrastructure concepts are introduced to reduce these vulnerabilities yet retaining the density of urban settings

• Alterations in infrastructure relationships to users and coping with extreme events are proposed for flexibility.

Framing Intersections I. INFRASTRUCTURE • Location • Configuration • Interconnections

III. EXTREME EVENTS • Weather • Climate

II. SOCIAL DEPENDENCE ON SERVICES

• Settlement Patterns • Preferences

IV. INTERSECTIONS (Catastrophic)

Risk-Based Choices

Risk-Based Choices

Risk-Based Choices

I. Infrastructure Vulnerabilities Location: e.g., Coasts

Source: R. Zimmerman and C. Faris, “Infrastructure Impacts and Adaptation Challenges,” Chapter 4 in Climate Change Adaptation in

New York City: Building a Risk Management Response, New York City Panel on Climate Change 2010 Report, edited by C.

Rosenzweig and W. Solecki. Prepared for use by the New York City Climate Change Adaptation Task Force. Annals of the New York

Academy of Sciences, Vol. 1196. New York, NY, NY Academy of Sciences, 2010, pp. 63-85. Pp. 68, 69, 73. CSO figures drawn from

NYCPlaNYC.

NYC Power Plants NYC Combined Sewer Outfalls

Infrastructure Interconnections Infrastructure Concentration: e.g., Airport Activity 2013

Source: .U.S. DOT, RITA Transportation Statistics Annual Report 2013, p. 13 http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/TSAR_2013.pdf

Infrastructure Concentration: e.g., Passenger Rail (25 Busiest Amtrak Stations) FY 2012

Source: .U.S. DOT, RITA Transportation Statistics Annual Report 2013, p. 15 http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/TSAR_2013.pdf

Interdependencies under Normal (non-disruptive) Conditions

TRANSPORTATION WATER MANAGEMENT

Roads • Signals • Lighting

Rail track) • Signals • Switches • Lighting

Water Conveyance • Drainage Structures • Catch Basins • Culverts • Sewers

Transportation supports distribution and storage structures for water infrastructure via co-location (geographic dependence)

Water management infrastructure provides water reduction services for transportation to prevent flooding (functional dependence)

ENERGY

Dependence on energy Source: NYCEP 2017 Progress Report 2017 NYC Municipal Separate Storm Sewer System (MS4) - Stormwater Management Program Plan, p. 2.

Transportation for water management Catch basin cleaning

Transportation for water management Catch basins and roads

II. Social Dependence on Services (1)Population Patterns and Trends and Usage Implications Coasts - Population and Population Density in U.S. Coastal Counties, 1960-2008

Source: Stephen G. Wilson and Thomas R. Fischetti (May 2010) Coastal population trends in the U.S.: 1960-2008, p. 7. http://www.census.gov/prod/2010pubs/p25-1139.pdf

Population Population Density

(2) Increasing Use of Infrastructure Services Infrastructure usage has continued to grow: • The U.S. DOT indicates Vehicle Miles of Travel is steadily increases (U.S. DOT[1]); • The U.S. DOT and APTA indicate transit ridership is similarly increasing (APTA) • According to EIA, energy production and use steadily increased nationwide.[2] • CTIA indicates the exponential growth in cellular technologies.[3] • The Pew Center [4] indicates dramatic increases in information technology usage,

i.e., for the internet, computers and cell phones.

These services continue to be marked by poor condition and needing large investment thus diminishing use or usage quality: Condition 2017: U.S. average is “D+”[5, p. 5] Age: NYC infrastructure age ranges, according to CUF[6], are: sewer mains and subway facilities (about 80-90 years old) to airport support facilities (40-50 years old); water mains and bridges are in the middle. Design and environmental issues: However, age may not be the whole story, since many bridge collapses have occurred in newer bridges[7] Investment: ASCE estimates a $4.59 trillion need to 2025[5, p. 8]

•Sources: : [1] U.S. DOT, FHWA Highway Statistics (April 2013) .[2]Center for Urban Future (2015) Caution Ahead, New York, NY: CUF, p. 11; [3] CTIA

(2014) Annual Wireless Industry Survey; [4] Pew Research Center, February 2014, “The Web at 25,” summarized from pp. 4, 11 and 13 Available at:

http://www.pewinternet.org/2014/02/27/the-web-at-25-in-the-u-s. [5] ASCE (2017) American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) (2017). “2017 report card

for America’s infrastructure,” ASCE, Washington, D.C.; [6] http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/mer.pdf; [7]R. Zimmerman, Transport the

Environment and Security, 2012. R. Zimmerman NIST presentation October 2016

Population Growth vs. VMT Growth, U.S.

Source: U.S. EPA (2013) Our Built and Natural Environments: A Technical Review of the Interactions among Land Use, Transportation, and Environmental Quality, Second edition. Washington, D.C.: EPA http://www.epa.gov/dced/pdf/b-and-n/b-and-n-EPA-231K13001.pdf, p. 26

U.S. DOT, FHWA (April 2013) Highway Statistics 2011, Chart RC-

1C;

http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2011/pdf/rc1c.pdf

III. Selected Trends in Natural Hazards • NOAA’s National Climate Data Center (2016) reported the continued prominence of

severe storms and flooding among other weather or climate related events whose losses exceed a billion dollars.[1]

• NOAA’s National Hurricane Center reported that the recent couple of decades accounted for the most severe storms in dollar losses and other factors.[2]

• The National Climate Assessment trends and projections reported increases in most climate change-related extreme phenomena: temperature, sea level rise, heavy precipitation, hurricanes.[3]

• Swiss Re reported generally increasing trends in catastrophic losses (according to their threshold definitions based on “insured losses (claims), economic losses, and casualties”): “353 catastrophe events across the world in 2015, up from 339 in 2014. Of those, 198 were natural catastrophes, the highest ever recorded in one year,” most of which are weather-related.[4]

• NOAA reported that records are being exceeded or almost being exceeded for temperature (NOAA’s State of the Climate), hurricane extremes, and ice loss (NOAA National Snow and Ice Data Center).[5]

• 1980-2017 (to date): “The U.S. has sustained 208 weather and climate disasters since 1980 where overall damages/costs reached or exceeded $1 billion (including CPI adjustment to 2017). The total cost of these 208 events exceeds $1.1 trillion.”[6]

Sources: R. Zimmerman NIST presentation October 2016 [1]NOAA National Climate Data Center (2016) [2]Blake, E.S., C.W. Landsea and E.J. Gibney (August 2011) The Deadliest, Costliest, and Most Intense United States Tropical Cyclones from 1851 to 2010 NWS NHC-6, available at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/nws-nhc-6.pdf [3]Walsh, J., et al. (2014) Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, J. M. Melillo, Terese (T.C.) Richmond, and G. W. Yohe, Eds., U.S. Global Change Research Program, 19-67. doi:10.7930/J0KW5CXT. pp. 19-67.Page 20-21. http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/introduction [4]Swiss Re (2016) Sigma Report No. 1/2016, pages 2 and 5. [5]NOAA (2016) State of the Climate; National Snow and Ice Data Center [6] NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters (2017). https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/ Note: These findings can vary by location.

Types of Natural Hazards

Weather / Extreme Heat and Cold • Hurricanes • Floods • Landslides & Mudslides (water induced) • Tornadoes • Sandstorms • Precipitation Extremes/ Drought • Winter Weather • Heat Extremes • Wildfires Note: Weather extremes and climate change have been associated Geophysical • Earthquakes • Tsunamis (earthquake and volcano induced) • Volcanoes

Definition of Extreme Events NOAA, NCDC U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI)

“The U.S. CEI is the arithmetic average of the following five or six indicators of the percentage of the conterminous U.S. area [expressed as a percentage]:

• 1. Maximum Temperature. “The sum of (a) percentage of the United States with maximum temperatures much below normal and (b) percentage of the United States with maximum temperatures much above normal.”

• 2. Minimum Temperature. “The sum of (a) percentage of the United States with minimum temperatures much below normal and (b) percentage of the United States with minimum temperatures much above normal.”

• 3. Drought. “The sum of (a) percentage of the United States in severe drought (equivalent ot the lowest tenth percentile) based on the PDSI and (b) percentage of the United States with severe moisture surplus (equivalent to the highest tenth percentile) based on the PDSI.”

• 4. Precipitation (1-day). “Twice the value of the percentage of the United States with a much greater than normal proportion of precipitation derived from extreme (equivalent to the highest tenth percentile) 1-day precipitation events.”

• 5. Precipitation. “The sum of (a) percentage of the United States with a much greater than normal number of days with precipitation and (b) percentage of the United States with a much greater than normal number of days without precipitation.”

• 6. Storms. “The sum of squares of U.S. landfalling tropical storm and hurricane wind velocities scaled to the mean of the first five indicators.” (experimental)

Interpretation: “In each case, we define much above (below) normal or extreme conditions as those falling in the upper (lower) tenth percentile of the local, period of record.”

Source: NOAA, NCDC, http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/cei/definition

Extreme Event Trends: All Disasters

Source: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters (2017). https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/

Selected Characteristics of Billion Dollar Weather Events, 1980-2017

Number of Events: 208 • Severe storms accounted for the greatest number of events – 86 or

41.3% • Tropical cyclones were second (16.8%) and flooding was third (13.0%) Costs: Total Losses (CPI-adjusted) $1,197.3 billion and average event cost $5.8 billion • Tropical cyclones ranked highest in total losses ($566.0 billion or 47.3%)

and per event costs ($16.2 billion) • Drought was second in total losses ($226.0 billion or 18.9%) and in per

event average cost ($9.4 billion) Deaths: 9,660 • Tropical cyclones ranked highest in deaths (3,310) • Drought ranked second (2,993 that were heat-wave related) • Severe storms ranked third (1,578)

Source: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters (2017). https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/summary-stats

Extreme Event Example: Tropical Cyclones

Source: U.S. EPA (2016) Climate Indicators https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators; Note: the Power Dissipation Index is a function of wind “strength, duration and frequency”

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Are Increasing

Source: U.S. EPA (2016) Climate Indicators https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators

IV. Intersections/Juxtapositions Storms, Roads and Rail

Source: NOAA

(2006) NOAA

Celebrates 200

years

NYC Environmental Protection

NOAA (2013) Service Assessment, Hurricane/Post Tropical Cyclone Sandy, Cover page

NOAA (2016) Service Assessment The Historic SC Floods of Oct 1-5, 2015, Photos by NWS Weather Forecast Offices

and USGS, pp. 15, 22.

R. Zimmerman NIST presentation October 2016

South Ferry MTA Station after Hurrican e Sandy. Source: Metropolitan Transportation Authority

Human Activity, Infrastructure and Extreme Events: Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Source

Source: U.S. EPA (April 14, 2017) Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990 – 2015. Washington, D.C.: U.S. EPA, p. ES-28. Available at https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2017-2/documents/2017_complete_report.pdf

Dysfunctional Interconnected Infrastructure in Extreme Weather

TRANSPORTATION WATER MANAGEMENT

Roads • Signals • Lighting

Rail track) • Signals • Switches • Lighting

Water Conveyance • Drainage Structures • Catch Basins • Culverts • Sewers

Extreme Weather • Flooding • Debris

Power Outages

ENERGY

Transportation blockages impede water controls

Water structure blockages and failures due to clogging, over-capacity, and damage affect transportation

Choke points at the intersection of different interconnected infrastructure systems

V. What Next Choices: Risk-Based

Risk = Probability X Consequences Probabilities (Most Difficult to Change) Alter Social Development Patterns and Use of Infrastructure Services • Reduction in use • Reduction in effects (e.g., emission reduction and

shift to non-Carbon energy) Consequences Alter Infrastructure • Decentralization to reduce interdependencies • Renewables • Reduce exposure and vulnerability

(1) PROBABILITIES Altering Infrastructure Use / non-Carbon Energy

Greenhouse Gas Emission Trends: Reducing Usage

Source: U.S. EPA (April 14, 2017) Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990 – 2015. Washington, D.C.: U.S. EPA, p. 2-34 and 3-33 . Available at https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2017-2/documents/2017_complete_report.pdf

Water Management Infrastructure Re-design with Green Infrastructure and Modified Gray Infrastructure:

For Protection in Extreme Conditions

TRANSPORTATION WATER MANAGEMENT

Roads Rail (track)

Water Conveyance/ Reduction: GREEN* • Vegetative Nourishment • Islands, reefs

Transportation provides physical support for green infrastructure

Water management (green, gray) infrastructure is decentralized

porous track beds

porous pavement vegetation

vegetation

*Suggested by Georgetown Climate Center (2017) Rebuilding with Resilience, p. 9 Note: Extreme events can impair green infrastructure where floodwaters and debris overwhelm them. Green infrastructure is meant to support water management under normal conditions so that flood volumes can be reduced when extreme events do happen.

Energy Use

Water Protection: GRAY* • Barriers, levees, structures

parallel/perpendicular to shorelines

Interconnection Adaptation to Transportation Redesign -- Multimodal Connectivity to Move from Gray to Green

(shortening bike-share and subway station distances)

INTERCITY RAIL

COMMUTER RAIL

SUBWAY/ LIGHT RAIL

Motor Vehicle

Bike/ Bike-Share

Pedestrian

Motor Vehicle

Bus Transit

These still rely on roadways, but can reduce roadway surfaces by shortening distances. Porous pavement could also be introduced. Source: Produced by Professor Rae Zimmerman, New York University.

Flexibility Through Multi-Modal Connections: Bus Connections at Subway Stations, NYC

Source: Zimmerman, R. et al. (2014 forthcoming), “Promoting Transportation Flexibility in Extreme Events through Multi-Modal Connectivity,” New York, NY: NYU-Wagner. Funded by the U.S. DOT Region 2 UTRC. GIS constructed diagram by Joshua Sellers.

Introducing Energy Infrastructure Interconnections

Gray infrastructures consumes energy in a number of ways: • the use of fuels to power equipment • the use of electric power in the operation of equipment Gray infrastructure can reduce energy usage by: • relying on renewable energy to run equipment • Using materials that are less energy intensive Green infrastructure supports energy reduction in: • reducing reliance on the gray infrastructure equipment

requiring fossil-fuel based energy Green infrastructure consumes energy if: • vegetation requires energy under conditions where sunlight

is not present and for irrigation when water is scarce

Summary of Traditional and Innovative Consequence-Reduction Measures

Traditional Measures

• Barricade: Temporary and Permanent, intermittent operation

• Remove or relocate

• Elevate

• Bury

• Change materials and design to reduce exposure and consequences

Innovations

• Invoke mobile resource networks, e.g., “mutual assistance”

• Expand the use of alternative travel routes

• Provide alternative, distributed resources

• Fortify / strengthen (water and physical damage resistance) through

natural processes, e.g., green infrastructures

• Use alternative, decentralized modes of travel

• Increase Interconnection among systems

• Move people, change land use, change behavior

Selected Conclusions • Network frameworks are useful for portraying how

infrastructure, population and extreme events interact and are interdependent

• From a risk-based perspective, it is easier to deal with consequences than probabilities; in the short-term, consequences might be easier to address

• There are different ways of reducing consequences: • changing design • materials • distribution of infrastructure

• Social Systems take longer to adjust than physical systems • Time is an important dimension in the network:

• time to develop and introduce a technology and • time to assemble resources to support them • time for public engagement and acceptance • time to comply with or adapt regulations

Acknowledgement

This work was supported by the following grants: “Urban Resilience to Extreme Weather Related Events Sustainability Research Network (UREx SRN)” funded by The National Science Foundation (#1444755) to Arizona State University. (1444755)

Critical Resilient Interdependent Infrastructure Systems and Processes (CRISP) Type 1—

Reductionist and integrative approaches to improve the resiliency of multi-scale

interdependent critical infrastructure,” funded by the NSF (1541164)

“Dynamic Resiliency Modeling and Planning for Interdependent Critical Infrastructures,” funded by the Critical Infrastructure Resilience Institute, U. of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, part of the Homeland Security Center of Excellence funded by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security Disclaimer: Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsors, the National Science Foundation or the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.