RISK ASSESSMENTS AND BUSINESS CONTINUITY FOR THE EGG INDUSTRY

Sasidhar Malladi, Center for Animal Health and Food Safety, University of MinnesotaApril 17th 2013

Overview

1) Business continuity planning for a Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreak

Background SES Plan Proactive Risk Assessments

2) Salmonella Enteritidis risk assessments Background Recent studies and ongoing work Opportunities for risk assessment

Background: Market Continuity Impact of HPAI Outbreak

Emergency response in the event of a HPAI outbreak Control Area established Quarantine and movement control

Market continuity consequences: table egg sector Just in time supply chain: holding capacity limited to 48-

72 hours Poultry dense area: potential impact on food security e.g., Mexico H7N3 outbreak

Background: Control Area HPAI Scenario

SES Plan Purpose

Provide science and risk based guidelines supporting movement permitting decisions

Promote food security and animal health

Ensure continuity of markets and egg supply

Facilitate rapid permitting decisions

Foster government, industry, consumer confidence

State Animal Health Officials

UEP, AEB, Production Veterinarians

Egg SectorWorking Group

USDA-APHIS-VSNCAHEM

CEAHUMN-CAHFS

ISU-CFSPH

Public-Private-Academic Partnership

Proactive Risk Assessments

DefinitionProactive = completed prior to an outbreakRisk Assessment = A science based process that both quantifies and qualifies risk

What’s their role?Provides decision making guidance to those responding (i.e. regulatory & industry)

Proactive Risk Assessments

Risk of HPAI spread via movement of various egg industry products from “Infected but Undetected” flocks in a Control Area

Preventive measures evaluated:Federal programs and regulations (AMS, FSIS, NPIP)Routine biosecurity and C&D practicesProduct specific biosecurity measures (during

outbreak)Active surveillance protocols (during outbreak)Holding time (during outbreak)

Proactive Risk Assessment Process

RA specific working groups Industry representatives

Industry practices and data Input on outbreak measures and field experiences

USDA APHIS and State Animal Health Officials Regulatory perspective Technical expertise

Academic institutions Technical expertise Outreach and facilitating workgroup

Review process: industry workgroup; USDA-APHIS-CEAH; risk managers and stakeholders

Proactive Risk Assessment: Quantitative Models

Simulation model outcomes Time to detect HPAI

Clinical signs Active surveillance

Likelihood of moving contaminated egg industry products from an infected flock before detection

Methods Stochastic simulation model of within flock HPAI

spread Simulation models of detection via RRT-PCR testing

given testing of daily mortality

Proactive Risk Assessment: Washed and Sanitized Shell Eggs

Washed and sanitized—in a 100–200 parts per million (ppm) chlorine solution

Outbreak Measures Diagnostic testing from sick/dead birds from each

house Daily mortality within normal range Truck and driver biosecurity C&D of egg handling materials Two day hold after production before moving eggs

to market

Example Timeline for Washed and Sanitized Shell Eggs

Quantitative Results for Movement of Shell Eggs

Predicted number of HPAI H5N1 contaminated eggs moved per house before detection among 75000 eggs for

different hold times

 Surveillance and Movement Option

1 Day hold 2 Day hold 3 Day holdBaseline scenario: 2 birds /6 hours

6.5 (0-19) 0.80 (0-2) 0.10 (0-0)

Alternate Scenario 0.5 birds/6 hours

3.4 (0-14) 1.6 (0-6) 0.75 (0-3)

Washed and Sanitized Shell Eggs Risk Assessment Results

The risk associated with the shell surface of eggs that are washed and sanitized as specified in 7CFR56.76 is negligible.

The overall risk of moving washed and sanitized shell eggs into, within, and outside of a Control Area during an HPAI outbreak is, negligible if there are no poultry on the

destination premises low if there are poultry on the destination

premises

Proactive Risk Assessments Supporting SES Plan

CommodityRisk Posed

to Other Poultry

Pasteurized Liquid Eggs Negligible

Non-Pasteurized Liquid Eggs Negligible

Washed and Sanitized Shell Egg (no poultry on destination premises)

Negligible

Washed and Sanitized Shell Egg (poultry on destination premises)

Low

Nest-Run (unwashed) Eggs Low

Egg-Type Hatching Eggs Low

Egg-Type Day-Old Chicks Low

Egg Shells, Inedible Egg Product Low

Manure and Materials In progress

SES Plan Summary Permit Table (Selected portions)

SES Plan Benefits

Ensures a continuous supply of fresh egg products Enhances market continuity within and between

States during an HPAI outbreak Facilitates early detection of avian influenza in

egg production flocks and reduces HPAI spread from an index outbreak to other egg production flocks

Supports the USDA APHIS HPAI Response Plan: The Red Book

Beneficial working relationships between Stakeholders

Salmonella Enteritidis(SE) Risk Assessments: Background

Previous public health risk assessments Farm to fork approach Lesser emphasis on on-farm risk factors

1998 FSIS Risk Assessment Predicted 2.3 million contaminated eggs and

mean 661,633 SE illnesses per year from eggs and egg products

Risk factors evaluated: molting, storage temperature, handling, cooking and pooling in preparation of eggs

SE Risk Assessments: Background

2005 FSIS Risk Assessment Update Predicted approximately 15 million contaminated

eggs and 131,122 SE illnesses per year from eggs and egg products

Detailed modeling of location of SE in egg, temperature, yolk membrane breakdown, growth and pasteurization scenarios

USDA NAHMS Layers 1999 study Rodent index, age, molting, access of pests to feed,

visitor biosecurity Potential factors: C&D practices, manure handling

SE Risk Assessments: Recent Studies on Attribution

Attribution: the proportion of SE illnesses “due to” the consumption of eggs and egg products

FDA final rule Outbreak Surveillance1985-2002 Mean 66% of SE illness (53% to 79%) attributable to

eggs

Recent CDC update Painter et al., 2013 Outbreak Data from 1998 to 2010 35.2 to 61.8 % of SE illnesses attributable to eggs 68% of SE outbreaks attributable to eggs

SE Risk Assessments: Ongoing Studies

Upcoming NAHMS layers 2013 survey Update prevalence estimates Vaccination practices SE testing practices Greater detail on practices such as manure

handling and end of production C&D Risk assessment relevance

Update parameters related to risk factors Improve modeling of the impact of farm

management practices on SE prevalence.

SE Risk Assessment Opportunities: Between Premises Spread

Transmission risk with different types of movements Egg handling materials Nest run eggs, inedible eggs Surplus hens and pullets to backfill a layer house

Risk assessment and simulation models Estimate likelihood of spread per movement based

on predicted within flock prevalence Impact of C&D and movement specific biosecurity

practices Epidemiological studies help in validation

SE Risk Assessment Opportunities: Within Premises Spread and Prevalence

Improved estimation of the impact of various risk factors Fly and insect control End of production C&D Vaccination Manure handling

Risk Assessment Quantitative simulation models of within flock salmonella

prevalence Models may help quantify interaction between various risk factors

Risk assessment approaches can help identify efficient and effective strategies to maintain continuity of market and improve food safety

Resources

U.S. Secure Egg Supply Plan

www.secureeggsupply.com FAD-PReP

Secure website: fadprep.lmi.org UMN-CAHFS and NCFPD

www.cahfs.umn.edu

www.ncfpd.umn.edu ISU

www.cfsph.iastate.edu Interagency RA

www.fsis.usda.gov/Science/risk_assessments/index.asp