risk assessment workshop hudson county, nj - … risk assessment and awareness information to local...

Risk Assessment Workshop Hudson County, NJ

FEMA REGION II April 12, 2012 10:00 am

2

Agenda

Welcome and Introductions

Objectives

Risk MAP Non-Regulatory Products & Datasets

FEMA’s Coordinated Needs Management Strategy

(CNMS)

New Jersey Coastal Flood Study

• Status Update

• Risk Communications and Coastal Outreach Strategy

Questions

Risk Assessment – HazUS Demonstration

3

Introductions

Local – Hudson County (Host) & Communities

New Jersey Association for Floodplain Management (NJAFM)

State – New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection

(NJDEP)

Supervising Engineer: John Scordato

GIS III: Chris Gould

FEMA Region II

Risk Analysis Outreach Lead: Bill McDonnell

Risk Analysis Risk Assessment Engineer: Robert Schaefer

Flood Management & Flood Insurance Lead: Kim Rizzo

Risk Analysis Risk Assessment Technical Support: Thomas Song

Risk Analysis Risk Assessment Technical Support: Seymour Smith

4

Objectives

Engage Hudson County communities and promote local

ownership to reduce their vulnerability to risk

Provide risk assessment and awareness information to local

officials to effectively manage and communicate flood risk for

residents and businesses

Provide an update on the current status of Hudson County’s

Coastal Flood Study

Encourage partnerships and collaborations to leverage and

advance risk management and mitigation measures

Risk MAP Non-Regulatory Products & Datasets

6

The Paradigm Shift: Map Mod to Risk MAP

7

Program Product Comparisons

DFIRM Database

Traditional Regulatory Products

8

Program Product Comparisons

DFIRM Database

Non-Regulatory Flood Risk Products

9

Flood Risk Products and Datasets

Flood Risk Products

• Flood Risk Database

• Flood Risk Report

• Flood Risk Map

Flood Risk Datasets

• Changes Since Last FIRM

• Flood Depth & Analysis Grids

• Flood Risk Assessments

• Areas of Mitigation Interest

Flood Risk Datasets Flood Risk Report Flood Risk Map Flood Risk

Database

10

Required and Optional Flood Risk Datasets

Standard Coastal Flood Risk Datasets (Required)

• Changes Since Last FIRM

• 1% Annual Chance Depth Grid

• Flood Risk Assessments (HazUS Loss Analysis)

Enhanced Coastal Flood Risk Datasets (Optional)

• Areas of Mitigation Interest

• Coastal Increased Inundation Areas

• Coastal Wave Height Grid

• Primary Frontal Dune Erosion Areas

• Eroded Dune Peak

Risk MAP Non-Regulatory Datasets

Areas of Mitigation Interest (Enhanced)

12

Areas of Mitigation Interest Purpose and Intended Uses

Identify areas that may be affecting flood risk that

would benefit from a raised local awareness

Raise awareness by local stakeholders of areas within

and upstream of the watershed that may be

contributing to flood risk and associated

interrelationships

Provide input to local mitigation plans

13

Overview - Areas of Mitigation Interest

Items that may have an impact (positive or

negative) on the identified flood hazards

and/or flood risks

Examples include:

Riverine and coastal flood control structure

At risk essential facilities and emergency

routes that could overtopped

Stream flow constrictions (e.g. undersized

culverts and bridge openings, etc.)

Previous assistance and claims “Hot Spots”

(clusters of IA and PA claims, RL, SRL)

Significant land use changes

Significant riverine or coastal erosion

Locations of successful mitigation projects

14

Broome County, NY

Frank Evangelisti’s testimonial video for the 2011 ASFPM

town hall meeting

http://youtu.be/4p3cu8eTV7s

Example Area of Mitigation Interest



15

Re-designed everything when the developer (Keystone

Associates) saw the new Broome County preliminary

maps and raised the site in City of Binghamton two feet

putting the finished floor of the building two feet above the

new 1% (100-year) event

Broome County, NY Example Area of Mitigation Interest

Due to the new flood

maps and a developer

making prudent risk

management decision,

the new development was

saved from the 2011

floods

16

Areas of Mitigation Interest Features and Benefits

Informs decisions makers on where mitigation actions or

additional building code requirements are needed

Useful in formulating building code enhancements and

prioritizing mitigation actions and identifying needed

resources

Helps visually communicate flood risk to the public

Allows neighboring communities in a watershed study area to

see factors that may impact them, fostering collaboration

Risk MAP Non-Regulatory Products

Changes Since Last FIRM Dataset

18

Purpose of Changes Since Last FIRM

Identify Areas and Types of Flood Zone Change:

• Compares current effective (previous) with proposed (new) flood

hazard mapping. (all inputs must be digital)

• Flood zone changes are categorized and quantified

Provide Study/Reach Level Rationale for Changes Including:

• Methodology and assumptions

• Changes of model inputs or parameters

(aka Contributing Engineering Factors)

Offer Stakeholders Transparency and Answers to:

• Where have my flood hazards increased or decreased?

• Why may have my flood hazards increased or decreased?

• Which communities are subject to new BFEs or ordinance

adjustments.

19

Previous

Mapping

20 20

New

Mapping

21 21

Changes Since

Last FIRM

SFHA Decrease

Unchanged

Unchanged SFHA Increase

Unchanged

SFHA Increase

22

Changes Since Last FIRM (CSLF) Features and Benefits

Makes it easy for communities and homeowners to identify

the impacts of new maps on the regulatory floodplain

• Identifies new at risk properties eligible for Preferred Risk Policy

Assists in prioritizing mitigation actions

• Essential in determining where flood risk mitigation strategies

are needed

• New areas may be found at risk to flooding

• Mitigation might be focused on slowing, or reducing future

increases in flooding

Helps identify reasons for changes

23

Changes Since Last FIRM (CSLF) Features and Benefits

Preferred Risk Policy – annual cost & savings

Pre-Firm Residential Structure With a Basement

Amount of

Coverage

PRP

Preferred Risk Policy

B,C,X Zone

A Zone

Savings per

year

Structure / Contents

Purchased before

map becomes

effective

Grandfathered New rate

the first time PRP is

renewed after new map

becomes effective

Structure Only

Purchased after map

becomes effective

Structure Only

$50,000 / $20,000 $ 236 $ 535 $ 515 0

$100,000 / $40,000 $ 304 $ 765 $ 948 $ 183

$150,000 / $60,000 $ 343 $ 930 $ 1,388 $ 458

$200,000 / $80,000 $ 378 $ 1,095 $ 1,828 $ 733

$250,000 / $100,000 $ 405 $ 1,259 $ 2,253 $ 994


Flood Depth & Analysis Grids (DAGs)

25

Purpose of Flood Depth & Analysis Grids

Communicate / ‘Show’ Flood Inundation as Function of

Event’s Magnitude or Severity

Serve as Key Inputs to HAZUS Risk Assessment

Analyses

Serve as pre-screening criteria for mitigation project

potential

Increase Flood Risk Awareness as Acknowledged from

Varied Contexts (Depth, Probability, Velocity, etc.)

Communicate that Hazard, and by extension Risk, varies

within the mapped floodplain

26

Flood Depth Grids Flood Depth Grid Creation Process

XS

XS

27

Flood Depth Grids Water Surface Elevations (WSE) Calculated and WSE Grid Produced

XS

XS

WSE

28

Flood Depth Grids Depth Grid Calculated as Difference between WSE and Ground

XS

XS

Depth

29

1% Depth

(100-Year)

4.7 ft

0.1 ft

0.0 ft

30

Depth Grids Features and Benefits

Assists with mitigation prioritization based on risk

Assists local permit officials by identifying areas of high hazard

• Clearly depicts high flood risk areas for future planning

• Assists with advanced recovery planning and disaster preparedness

Assists with cost effectiveness screening

• Evaluating cost effectiveness of potential mitigation projects (including

BCA support)

Effective visual tool to communicate risk to public


Flood Risk Assessment Data

32

Risk Assessment

Identify Hazards -Earthquake, Floods (Riverine &

Coastal), and Hurricane (Wind & Surge)

Profile Hazard Events -Attributes based on return

period of hazard event

Inventory Assets -Building Stock, Population,

Critical Facilities, etc…

Estimate Losses -The “What Ifs” based on the

previous 3 items

33

Bayonne City: 1% (100 Year) Flood

Block A

Block A

•$6,658,000 total loss from

building damage

•622 tons of debris

Block B

Block B

•$5,000 total loss from

building damage

•1.3 tons of debris

Sources: •HAZUS-MH 2.0 Level 1 Loss Estimation Analysis •Census 2000 data for population and housing stock & Census 2010 TIGER roads file •Parcel Data was developed during the Parcels Normalization Project in 2008-2011 by •NJ Office of Information Technology, Office of Geographic Information Systems (OGIS)

FOR INORMATION PURPOSES ONLY therefore the results displayed can significantly

differ from actual flooding events. Any

determination of floodplains are NOT official.

Legend

Bayonne City Limits

Land Parcel

1% (100 yr) Flood

ValueHigh : 11.0149

Low : 0.0001

34

Bayonne City: 0.2% (500 Year) Flood

Block A

Block A

•$16,836,000 total loss

from building damage

•1,323 tons of debris

Block B

Block B

•$363,000 total loss from

building damage

•8 tons of debris





Legend

Bayonne City Limits

Land Parcel

0.2% (500 yr) Flood

ValueHigh : 12.6191

Low : 0.0001

35

HAZUS–MH 2.0

2.2 GHZ dual core or higher,

2 GB or higher of

memory/RAM

10 GB of disk space (30 GB

is needed for the entire US

24-bit capable video card with

a minimum of 128 MB

memory

MS Windows XP

SP3/Windows 7

Professional/Enterprise

ESRI ArcGIS 10 SP1

SYSTEM REQUIREMENTS

36

HAZUS Outputs

Direct Damage

Induced Damage

Direct Losses

Indirect Losses

General Building Stock

Essential Facilities

High Potential Loss Facilities

Transportation Systems

Utility Systems

Fire Following

Hazardous Materials Release

Debris Generation

Cost of Repair

Income Loss

Crop Damage

Casualties

Shelter Needs

Generic Output

Earthquake Ground Shaking Ground Failure

Flood Frequency Depth

Discharge Velocity

Hurricane Wind Pressure | Missile | Rain

Supply Shortages

Sales Decline

Opportunity Costs

Economic Loss

37

How HAZUS-MH estimates losses

Analyzes physical

landscape

Identifies hazard

Considers what is at risk

Analyzes social and

economic impacts

Produces maps, tables,

and reports

38

HAZUS Reports

39

Other Outputs

Identify Areas and Communicate Relative Flood Risk:

• Flood prone areas.

• Vulnerable people and property.

Provide Flood Risk $:

• Potential damage severity for different flood frequencies.

• Identify locations with possible cost effective mitigation options.

Shelter requirements

• Help communities and organizations to determine how many people

they may need to shelter.

At Risk Critical Facilities

• Helps emergency managers to plan for alternatives and mitigation

actions.

40




10% (10 Year) Flood 0.2% (500 Year) Flood

BAYONNE CITY

41

Max water level encountered:

~5 ft

FOR INORMATION PURPOSES ONLY therefore the results displayed can

significantly differ from actual flooding events.

Any determination of floodplains are NOT

official.


~2 ft


~1.5 ft

Navigating Through Flooded Areas


BAYONNE CITY 0.2% (500 Yr Flood) 10% (10 Yr Flood)

Navigating Through Flooded Areas

42

k

k

•Building

Damage: 6.56%

•Water Level:

~1.8 ft

Asbury Park High

Hope Academy Charter School

•Building Damage: 2.8%

•Water Level: ~.6 ft

ASBURY PARK CITY

1% (100 Year) Flood 0.2% (500 Year) Flood




Sources: •HAZUS-MH 2.0 Level 1 Loss Estimation Analysis •Census 2000 data for population and housing stock & Census 2010 TIGER roads file •Parcel Data was developed during the Parcels Normalization Project in 2008-2011 by NJ Office of Information Technology, Office of Geographic Information Systems (OGIS)

Choosing Potential Shelters

43

Levels Of Analysis

Input

of detailed engineering data

Combination of local and default information

Default hazard, inventory and damage information

User effort

and

proficiency

44

DEMO

Getting Started

45

HAZUS will redirect you to the

USGS for DEM download

Default DEM

Equals 30 Meters or

approximately 98.5

Feet

46

Some Drawbacks

The uncertain nature of natural hazards.

Analysis relies on the completeness of the data

on inventory.

• Ex: Default data is 10 years old.

Estimation is a result of approximations and

simplifications.

• Ex: flood models are done on a census block level that

is makes it more susceptible to rounding errors.

47

Risk Assessment Conclusion Features and Benefits

Identifies areas of higher flood risk by census block

Quantifies potential future flood losses to existing

structures

Improves ability to identify effective mitigation actions, or

areas requiring higher building code requirements, or use

of flood resilient designs and construction materials

Supports mitigation plan updates through improved risk

quantification

Supports disaster recovery planning by showing areas of

highest expected damages

48

Ordering HAZUS-MH 2.0

Contact FEMA’s Map Service Center (MSC)

http://msc.fema.gov

Call: Email:

1-877-336-2627 [email protected]

The MSC is the official government distribution center for digital and paper flood

hazard mapping products created by FEMA. Customer Service Representatives are

available to answer any questions.

http://msc.fema.gov/

mailto:[email protected]

49

Risk MAP Non-Regulatory Products & Datasets - Summary

Risk MAP Non-Regulatory Products/Datasets provide a

resource to help focus and prioritize the most cost effective

mitigation measures

Risk MAP Products/Datasets Being Considered:

Flood Risk Map, Report, Database

Changes Since Last FIRM

Flood Depth Grid – 1% annual chance

Flood Risk Assessment (HazUS)

Areas of Mitigation Interest (Enhanced)

50

Mitigation Planning

Hazard Mitigation Plans:

• Guides your decisions on mitigation activities for all hazards you

face

• Are an important resource for responding to disasters

• Facilitates access to federal assistance for mitigation

We reviewed your mitigation plans and found that:

• Hudson County: 2009 Mitigation Plan:

Approved multi-jurisdictional plan

Adopted by all the communities

Expires on August 25, 2014

51

Hudson County, NJ Mitigation Plan Update

52

Mitigation Action

Risk MAP products/datasets will help identify new

mitigation actions or advance existing ones

Example Mitigation Actions

Land Use Ordinances

Zoning, Setbacks,

Floodplain Management, etc.

Local Building Codes

IBC, IRC, Local

Regulations, etc.

Mitigation Projects

Acquisition, Elevation,

Floodproofing, etc.

Community Identified Mitigation Programs

Management Best Practices

Integration of natural hazards into other

planning mechanisms

53

National Tool

The National Flood

Mitigation Data Collection

Tool (NFMDCT or NT) was

developed to gather

detailed specific

information about flood

prone structures in order

to determine appropriate

long-term mitigation

measures and mitigation

alternatives for flood

prone properties.

54

National Tool

Provides standardized,

systematic approach to collecting

and interpreting property data

and mitigation project

development.

Can gather flood risk, building

construction and building value

for any structure.

Provides ability to change to

information and correct errors

that are currently recorded within

the National Flood Insurance

Program (NFIP) dataset.

55

National Tool

The data can be queried and

output in a variety of report

formats.

This detailed data helps create

a clearer picture of properties

and their flooding issues.

Field data is gathered by means

of a NT equipped laptop or by

standard forms provided with

the NT.

The National Tool requires

Microsoft Access XP, 2003 or

2007.

56

Substantial Damage Estimator (SDE)

Substantial Damage

Estimator (SDE) offers a

formalized approach to

develop reasonable

estimates of building

values and the cost to

repair or reconstruct

buildings.

SDE is designed for use by

local officials or others

having some knowledge of

construction costs and

practices.

57

Resources

ESRI Virtual Campus Online Courses training.esri.com

• HAZUS-MH Overview and Installation

• Introduction to Using HAZUS-MH for Hurricane Loss Estimation

• Using HAZUS-MH to Assess Losses from a Riverine Flood Hazard

• Using HAZUS-MH for Earthquake Loss Estimation

• Integrating User-Supplied Hazard Data into the HAZUS-MH Flood Model

• HAZUS-MH Flood Model Output and Applications

• HAZUS-MH for Decision Makers

FEMA HAZUS: http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/hazus/index.shtm

Using HAZUS: http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/hazus/hz_app.shtm

HAZUS Users: http://www.hazus.org

National Tool: http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/floodplain/data_tool.shtm

SDE: http://www.fema.gov/library/viewRecord.do?id=4166

http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/hazus/index.shtm

http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/hazus/hz_app.shtm

http://www.hazus.org/

http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/floodplain/data_tool.shtm

http://www.fema.gov/library/viewRecord.do?id=4166

58

Substantial Damage Estimator (SDE)

Benefits and Limitations of the SDE Software

Benefits

• Provides a formalized approach to estimating SD

• Can be used for single-family homes, manufactured homes and

common non-residential structures

• Provides reasonable and defendable building values and damage

estimates

• Is a FEMA-acceptable method

Limitations

• Does not provide exact answers

• Does not provide a consistent approach for determining SD on a

community-wide basis (output depends on the local official using

the software)

NJ Disaster Recovery Efforts

Post-Irene

60

USGS NJ Gage Measurements

Hurricane Irene produced

record flooding - Peak flow

records were shattered at

stream gaging stations

throughout New Jersey

61

Hurricane Irene - Record Stream Gage Event

•Peak flow records were shattered at 38 of 93 gaging stations with

over 20 years of record including 7 gaging stations with 90 or

more years of record.

•30 gages recorded peaks greater then the 100 year event.

•10 of those 30 gages recorded peaks greater then the 500 year

event.

FEMA’s CNMS Program

Coordinated Needs Management Strategy

63

Coordinated Needs Management Strategy (CNMS) Overview

• FEMA’s geospatial flood hazard mapping

“inventory”

• Organizes, stores, and analyzes flood hazard

mapping needs information

• Influences map update funding allocation

decisions

• Standardizes how we collect map update data

before, during, and after map production

64

CNMS status in New Jersey

Legend

Validation Status

Status Miles

Valid 2,301

Unverified 791

Unknown 3,601

Total inventory 6,693

NVUE 34.4%

65

CNMS Request Website

RAMPP CNMS Request Creation:

• http://requests.rampp-cnms.com/

• Temporary Username: cnmsrequests

• Temporary Password: mapupdate

http://requests.rampp-cnms.com/



66

CNMS Data Viewer

67

Create CNMS Request Record

NJ / NYC Coastal Study

Status Update

69

Coastal and riverine analysis to be completed by the end

of 2012

Project Team

• Local Officials

• New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection

(Cooperating Technical Partner)

• FEMA

Risk Assessment, Mapping, and Planning Partners

(RAMPP), a joint venture of Dewberry, URS, and ESP

Regional Support Center

Hudson County Flood Study – Overview

70

Field survey for the approximately 11 miles of detailed

analysis for Passaic River has been completed.

Hydrology and Hydraulics processes are under way;

Coastal analyses are currently ongoing. Transect

(Coastal Cross Sections) layouts have been defined.

Obstructions have been modeled. Field reconnaissance

and surge has been completed. Overland analysis is in

progress

Hudson County Flood Study - Update On the Current Status

71

Hudson County Flood Study - Paneling Scheme

•Restudy of all coastal hazard zones

and Passaic River

72

Hudson County – Transect Layout

NJ / NYC Coastal Study

Risk Communications and Coastal Outreach Strategy

74

Risk Assessment:

• April, 2012: Hudson

• Feb, 2012: Monmouth & Middlesex & Union

• Dec, 2011: Atlantic & Cape May

NFIP & CRS:

• March, 2012: Ocean

Mitigation Planning:

• Dec, 2011: Ocean & Monmouth

Hazard Mitigation Assistance (HMA)

• Dec, 2011: Middlesex & Union

Introduction to Risk MAP

• July, 2011: Cape May, Atlantic, Ocean, Monmouth

• August, 2011: Middlesex, Union, Hudson

• Early 2011: Cumberland, Salem

• 2010: Morris, Bergen, Somerset, Essex, Passaic

NJ/NYC Coastal Outreach – Recent Activities

75

Coastal Study Technical Advisory Panel (TAP) Technical Advisory Panel (TAP) was established to engage subject

matter experts in coastal engineering analysis process

Meetings were held on:

4/14/2011

5/10/2011

11/10/2011

Some of the Members:

Academics:

Cousteau Institute under Rutgers University

Stevens Institute of Technology

Richard Stockton College of NJ

State and Local Governments

Other Federal Agencies

76

Coastal Outreach Advisory Team (COAT) The Coastal Outreach Advisory Team is being

established to support the New Jersey and New York City

Coastal Flooding Outreach and Education Program

Technical Advisory Panel (TAP) is focused on technical

aspects of the flood risk program

COAT will focus on the outreach elements of the program

77

Risk Communications

Federal/State/Local goals:

• To create safer communities and reduce risk to lives and

property

• To effectively communicate risk and increase public

awareness, leading citizens to make informed decisions

regarding their risk

Key factors contributing to successful achievement of these

goals are:

• Community engagement and exchange of flood risk

information

• Effective collaboration through partnerships

• Strategic communications plan development

78

Risk Communication Strategy Resources

Region II Coastal Website:

• www.Region2Coastal.com

Region III Coastal Website:

• www.R3Coastal.com

Region IV Coastal Website:

• http://www.southeastcoastalmaps.com

Region VI Coastal Website:

• http://www.txchart.com

79

Risk MAP Outreach Activities Schedule

Past:

• August, 2011: Introduction to Risk MAP

Current: April, 2012

• Risk Assessment

Future:

• July, 2012: Technical Details of the Study

• August, 2012: Hazard Mitigation Planning

• September, 2012: Hazard Mitigation Assistance (HMA)

• October, 2012: Risk Communication

80

Resources FEMA: www.fema.gov

Floodsmart, the official site of the National Flood Insurance Program

(NFIP): www.floodsmart.gov

Risk Assessment, Mapping and Planning Partners: www.RAMPP-team.com

NFIP Reform: www.fema.gov/business/nfip/nfip_reform.shtm

Hazus-MH software: http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/hazus/index.shtm

Hazus User Groups: http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/hazus/hz_users.shtm#4

National Tool software:

http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/floodplain/data_tool.shtm

Substantial Damage Estimator (SDE):

http://www.fema.gov/library/viewRecord.do?id=4166

Risk MAP Non-Regulatory Products: Appendix N and O

New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection - NFIP Coordinator

New Jersey State Office of Emergency Management

http://www.fema.gov/business/nfip/nfip_reform.shtm

81

Questions & Feedback Please complete your survey. Your feedback is very important to us.

This presentation & hand-outs will be posted at: www.RAMPP-TEAM.com

Please explore the NJAFM website at: www.NJAFM.org

Contact Information

NJDEP

Joseph Ruggeri

NJDEP, Bureau of Dam Safety & Flood Control

Phone: 609-292-2296

NJDEP website: www.nj.gov/dep/floodcontrol

FEMA

Risk Analysis Risk Assessment / Engineer: Robert Schaefer / 212-680-8808 / [email protected]

Communications and Outreach Lead: William McDonnell / 212-680-3636 / [email protected]

Flood Insurance & Management: Kim Rizzo / 212-680-3637 / [email protected]

HAZUS & GIS: Brian Shumon / 212-680-3631 / [email protected] or

Thomas Song / 212-680-8519 / [email protected]

National Tool & SDE: Rich Einhorn / 212-680-8503 / [email protected] or

Seymour Smith / 212-680-8824 / [email protected]

http://www.nj.gov/dep/floodcontrol








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