risk assessment in portsriskmanagement.lnec.pt/pdf/papers/nov21_apresentacoes/24_prese… · –...

Risk Assessment in Ports

The Contingency Plan for the Port of Huelva

José F. SánchezCentre for Harbour and Coastal Studies, CEDEX

Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008


www.elpais.com



5

CONTENTS

Introduction– OPRC 90– RD 253/2004. PICCMA

Works carried out at CEDEX:– Study of Environmental Conditions– Spill Identification– Study of Trajectories– Study of Weathering– Risk Management (Proposals)

Introduction

Environmental conditions

Spill Identification

Trajectories

Weathering

Risk Management


6

OPRC 90 Convention

OPRC 90:IMO’s International Convention on Oil Pollution Preparedness, Response and Co-operation held in 1990

Parties to the OPRC convention are required to establish measures for dealing with pollution incidents, either nationally or in co-operation with other countries.

Introduction• OPRC 90

• Spanish Regulations

• RD 253/2004

• RD’s Annex II

• Works at CEDEX



Trajectories

Weathering

Risk Management


7

OPRC 90 Convention

• Art 3. Oil Pollution Emergency Plans :– 1) …ships are required to carry a shipboard oil

pollution emergency plan…– 3) …authorities or operators in charge of such sea

ports and oil handling facilities under its jurisdiction…have oil pollution emergency plans or similar arrangements which must be co-ordinated with national systems for responding promptly and effectively to oil pollution incidents

• Art 6. Each Party shall establish a national system for responding promptly and effectively to oil pollution incidents…, including… a national contingency plan for preparedness and response… (6.1.b)



• RD 253/2004

• RD’s Annex II

• Works at CEDEX



Trajectories

Weathering

RiskManagement


8

Spanish Regulations

OPRC 90’s Art 6. Order of February 2nd 2001National Contingency Plan

OPRC 90’s Art 3. Royal Decree 253/2004Internal Contingency Plan against Accidental Marine Pollution (Local Contingency Plan)PICCMA: Plan Interior de Contingencias contra la Contaminación Marina Accidental (in spanish)



• RD 253/2004

• RD’s Annex II

• Works at CEDEX



Trajectories

Weathering

RiskManagement


9

Royal Decree 253/2004, February 13th, that establishes measures for prevention and combating the pollution caused during loading, unloading, handling and bunkering of oils at the sea and harbours

– Art 2: PICCMAs• 2.1 Contents• 2.2 Complementary studies

– Art 4, 5, 7: Combating equipment (countermeasures)– 2 Annexes:

• ANNEX I: Contents of the PICCMA• ANNEX II: Contents of the Complementary Studies

Royal Decree 253/2004Introduction• OPRC 90


• RD 253/2004

• RD’s Annex II

• Works at CEDEX



Trajectories

Weathering

RiskManagement


10

SECTION I: GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL VARIALBES IN THE AREA OF INFLUENCE OF THE TERMINAL/SHIP

– 1.1 Geographic Location and Coastal Typology– 1.2 Atmospheric and Oceanographic climate– 1.3 Description of the fisheries and aquacultures – 1.4 Natural sensitive / protected areas – 1.5 Touristic areas– 1.6 Hydrology

ANNEX IIIntroduction• OPRC 90


• RD 253/2004

• RD’s Annex II

• Works at CEDEX



Trajectories

Weathering

RiskManagement


11

SECTION II: STUDY OF THE POTENTIAL SPILLS FATE AND EFFECTS

– 2.1 Identification and description of the most probable incidents causing an oil spill.

– 2.2 Trajectories of a spill produced at any terminal identified in 2.1 and location of the potentially affected areas

– 2.3 Study of weathering of every oil spill in accordance with the oil properties and at any environmental condition

– 2.4 Location of natural or artificial barriers that could act as an obstacle to the spill

– 2.5 Location of areas where it is recommended the oil containment and subsequent recovering and pathways to these areas

ANNEX IIIntroduction• OPRC 90


• RD 253/2004

• RD’s Annex II

• Works at CEDEX



Trajectories

Weathering

RiskManagement


12

SECTION I: ENVIRONMENTAL VARIALBES– Entirely

SECTION II: POTENTIAL SPILLS FATE AND EFFECTS – 2.1 Spill Identification – 2.2 Trajectories – 2.3 Weathering– The last two parts were not commissioned to CEDEX:

• 2.4 … barriers that could act as an obstacle to the spill • 2.5 … areas … the oil containment and … recovering• Some guidance in the reports

CEDEX COMMISSIONIntroduction• OPRC 90


• RD 253/2004

• RD’s Annex II

• Works at CEDEX



Trajectories

Weathering

RiskManagement


13

GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL - ECOLOGICAL CONDITIONS

(Report: October 2004)– Geography– Natural areas– Hydrology– Touristic areas

Results: a Set of maps

Océano Atlántico

RÍO TINTO

RÍO ODIEL

RÍA DEL TINTO Y DEL ODIEL

CANAL DEL CHATE

ESTERO DOMINGO RUBIO

MOGUER

PALOS DE LA FRONTERA

HUELVA

PUNTA UMBRIA

GUBRALEÓN

ALJARAQUE

DEHESA DEL ESTERO Y MONTES DE MOGUERDUNA S DEL ODIELENEBRA LES DE PUNTA UMBRIAESTERO DE DOMINGO RUBIOESTUARIO DEL RIO PIEDRASESTUARIO DEL RIO TINTOLAGUNA DEL PORTILLAGUNA S DE PALOS Y LAS MADRESMARISMA DE LA S CARBONERASMARISMAS DEL ODIELMARISMAS Y RIBERAS DEL TINTO

Lugares de Interes Comunitario (Lic´s)

Introduction


• Environment

• Meteorology

• Oceanography


Trajectories

Weathering

RiskManagement

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

%U

Océano Atlántico

RÍO TINTORÍO ODIEL

RÍA DEL TI NTO Y DEL ODIEL

CANAL DEL CHATE

ESTERO DOMINGO RUBIO

#ASTILLEROS DE HUELVA

#

MUELLE DE THARSIS#

ASTILLEROS DE BACUTA#

MUELLE DE RIO TINTO

#

MUELLE DE LOS GABRIELES# FORET S.A.#

C.A.M.P.S.A.#

FERTIBERIA S.A.

# PUERTO PETROLERO#

MUELLE DE MINERALES#

MUELLE DE SALTES #

C.A.M.P.S.A.#

MUELLE DE JUAN GONZALO

#

A.I.P.S.A.#

MUELLE DE LA TURBA

#

MUELLE DEL VIGIA

# MUELLE REINA SOFIA

#

REFINERIA DE PETROLEO LA RABIDA

REFINERÍA DE PETRÓLEOLA RÁBIDA


14

WINDS INFLUENCE

Local Winds: oil slicks drift

Gulf of Cádiz: shore circulation patterns (current to be added to tidal currents in the outer area)

Introduction


• Environment

• Meteorology

• Oceanography


Trajectories

Weathering

RiskManagement

FROM DATA BASES


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TIDES, WAVES & CURRENTS IMPORTANCE

Tides: – Generate tidal currents– Help the spill to reach high lands

Waves: – Affect the dispersion in the first phases of weathering

Currents:– Main factor in the spill trajectory among with winds– Can generated by

• Tides• Circulation • River discharges

Introduction


• Environment

• Meteorology

• Oceanography


Trajectories

Weathering

RiskManagement

NUMERICAL MODELLING WITH MIKE 21 HD


16

TIDES AND WAVES: FIELD / DATA BASEIntroduction


• Environment

• Meteorology

• Oceanography


Trajectories

Weathering

RiskManagement

TIDES HUELVA (APRIL 20-21 2004)

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

0:00 6:00 12:00 18:00 0:00 6:00 12:00 18:00 0:00

Torre Arenilla Odiel Mazagon Caño del Burro


17

CURRENTS (I): FIELD SURVEYIntroduction


• Environment

• Meteorology

• Oceanography


Trajectories

Weathering

RiskManagement

CURRENTS APRIL 20-21 2004

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

0:00 4:48 9:36 14:24 19:12 0:00 4:48 9:36 14:24 19:12 0:00

RIO ODIEL RIO TINTO CAÑO DEL BURRO

RIVER DISCHARGES:


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CURRENTS (II): NUMERICAL MODELLING

Numerical Model: MIKE 21 HDDomains:

– Inner– Outer

Scenarios:– Inner(3)

• 3 tides• 1 river discharge

(medium)

– Outer(5)• 5 circulation patterns

Introduction


• Environment

• Meteorology

• Oceanography


Trajectories

Weathering

RiskManagement


19

Supplied by the involved entities:– Local Port and Maritime Authorities – General Directorate of the Merchant Marine– CEPSA– DECAL ESPAÑA

From technical literature:– (Anderson & LaBelle, 2000) Update of Comparative

Occurrence Rates for Offshore Oil Spills– (ITOPF, 2004) Oil Tanker Spill Statistics: 2003 – (TAP, 2001) Oil Spill Analysis for North Slope Oil Production

and Transportation Operations– (API, 2002) Oil Spill in U.S. Navigable Waters 1991-2000– (US Coast Guard, 2000) Petroleum Oil Spills Impacting

Navigable U.S. Waterways

REFERENCESIntroduction



• Documents of Reference

• Spill type and location

• Probability of occurrence

• Estimation of the volume spilled

Trajectories

Weathering

RiskManagement


20

LOCATION OF POTENTIAL SPILLSIntroduction







Trajectories

Weathering

RiskManagement

12

1110

9 7 - 8 6 5 4

3

2

1

Inner domain

Outer

dom

ain


21

METHODOLOGYIntroduction







Trajectories

Weathering

RiskManagement

Determine Occurrence Rate (OR): for each incident typeCalculate Reference Variable (RV): volume moved in 10 yearsμ = OR x RV mean value of the number of incidents of this type during this timePoisson distribution with parameter μ :

0 4 8 12n

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

Pr(n

) Distribución de Poissonμ = 5μ = 0,05

!)Pr(

nen

nμμ−=


22

PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCEIntroduction







Trajectories

Weathering

RiskManagement

PROBABILIDAD DE QUE OCURRAN EXACTAMENTE n INCIDENTES EN 10 AÑOS CON VERTIDOS DE CUALQUIER CANTIDAD

n 1 2 3 4 5Prob 0,11169 0,19113 0,21803 0,18654 0,12768

TUBERÍA SUBMARINA

TORRE ARENILLAS (PETROLEROS)

Todos >136 Tm >1 360 Tm >13 600 TmOPERACIONESCarga/descarga 2,13 0,011 0,002 0,000Bunkering 0,39 0,001 0,000 0,000Otras operaciones 0,83 0,002 0,000 0,000

ACCIDENTESColisiones 0,12 0,004 0,001 0,000Varadas 0,12 0,003 0,001 0,000Fallo estructural 0,16 0,001 0,000 0,000Incendio y explosiones 0,03 0,000 0,000 0,000

Todas las causas 3,77 0,023 0,004 0,001

Nº MEDIO DE INCIDENTES EN 10 AÑOS

Submarine pipeline

Torre Arenillas petrol terminal


23

After a meeting with the parts involved on the issue (port authorities, companies, CEDEX)

– Loading, unloading and bunkering: the volume spilled at the nominal flow rate in 10 min.

– Submarine pipeline: the volume of the pipeline– Tankers and barges for oil transportation: ½ tanks (for

self-motion) capacity + 1/6 cargo– Other vessels: ½ tanks (for self-motion) capacity

VOLUMES ESTABLISHEDIntroduction







Trajectories

Weathering

RiskManagement


24

NUMERICAL MODELLING (I): HydrodynamicsIntroduction



Trajectories• Models features

• Modelled scenarios

• Atlas of trajectories

• Location of the affected areas

Weathering

RiskManagement

Numerical Model: MIKE 21 HDDomains:

– Inner– Outer

Scenarios:– Inner(3)

• 3 tides• 1 river discharge

(medium)

– Outer(5)• 5 circulation patterns


25

MIKE 21 PA/SA (particle analysis / spill analysis):– 2D (integrated in depth)– Same domains as in the currents numerical mod.– Trajectory = Drift of an oil particle at the water

surface: Udrif = cw × Uw + cc ×Uc

• Uc (Currents): MIKE 21 HD• cC = 1• Uw (Wind): wind charts• cw = 0.03 (= 3 %)

– Weathering: not evaluated with Mike 21 SA

NUMERICAL MODELLING (II): oil driftIntroduction







Weathering

RiskManagement


26

Introduction







Weathering

RiskManagement

¡¡¡INCIDENT!!!

Where?→ Code V03

What ?→ FUEL-OIL (code BA)

How much?→ 10 tons

Currents ?≈ Scenario nº 2 → code: 2_

Winds ?≈ S, 20 km/h → code: SS_1

20Km/h

¡¡INCIDENT!!V03_BM_2_SS

_1”run”


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Variables to combine (I): spill locations

Incident (Spill location): 14 sc.– Spill location– Type of spill

(load/unload, bunkering, collision, etc.)

Hydrodynamics (6 or 5 sc.)– Tide Coefficient (spring

tide, low tide) – Tide Instant (ebb, flow)– Circulation patterns (Gulf

of Cádiz)Local winds (4 or 8 scenarios)

– Intensity – Direction

Introduction







Weathering

RiskManagement

V01. Monobuoy

V02. Pipeline

V03. Deployment

V04. B.Recalada

V05. Pto. MazagónV06. CDF

V01. Monobuoy

V02. Pipeline

V03. Deployment

V04. B.Recalada

V05. Pto. MazagónV06. CDF

V07- 08. R. Sofía

V09. Ing. Juan Gonzalo

V10. T. ArenillasV11. M. Fertiberia

V12. M. Levante

V07- 08. R. Sofía

V09. Ing. Juan Gonzalo

V10. T. ArenillasV11. M. Fertiberia

V12. M. Levante


28

Variables to combine (II): winds / currents

NW NE

SESW

NW NE

SESW

NW NE

SESW

– Direction

Introduction







Weathering

RiskManagement

WINDS

CURR

ENTS


29

TIME TO EXPOSURE: OUTER / INNERIntroduction







Weathering

RiskManagement


30

TIME TO EXPOSURE

Time to exposure (T1): indicates, for each grid element (given by its coordinates x,y), the instant when it is affected by the spill, i.e. the first oil particle passes through it. Hence once the value is set, it do not change. Properties:

– As far as a spill can last for a long time:• It represents the trajectory with one simple graph• It gives some guidance on the trajectory, but not the

trajectory itself, that would require too many figures

– Gives the time when an area starts to be affected– Gives an idea of the velocity of the spill– However:

• Do not give the position of the slick at any time• Do not give the trajectory (position / time) of the slick.

Introduction







Weathering

RiskManagement


31

Zoning (Outer domain)

Having into account the results from the Study of Environmental conditions, i.e.:

– Nature– Value– Etc.

Introduction







Weathering

RiskManagement


32

Results (Outer domain)

Proportion of times that a zone is first area affected by the spill:

Introduction







Weathering

RiskManagement

V01. Monobuoy

V03. Deployment

V01. Monobuoy

V03. Deployment V01: Monobuoy

V03: Deployment zone


33

ADIOS 2 (Automated Data Inquiry for Oil Spills)

Features:– Short term fate model (5d.)– Processes: Spreading,

dispersion, evaporation, emulsification

– Data base > 1,000 oilsInputs:

– Oil– Weather– Water– Spill

Output:– Balance– Processes: spreading, etc.– Properties: viscosity, density

Introduction



Trajectories

Weathering• Models features

• Modeledscenarios

• Results

RiskManagement


34

Reduction of the number of scenarios

– Oil (properties): 2 crude oils (G1 + G3) + 2 products– Weather (wind and waves):

• Dependent (in order to reduce the number of scenarios, tough not entirely valid)

• Calms + Small winds/waves + Strong winds/waves

– Water properties: constant (after a sensitivity study)– Spill size: duration and flow rate (after Spill Id. study)

Introduction



Trajectories



• Results

RiskManagement


35

Spill data / Budget / EvaporationIntroduction



Trajectories



• Results

RiskManagement


36

Emulsification(% water in oil / density / viscosity)

Introduction



Trajectories



• Results

RiskManagement


37

After revising model results:– Winds are key in the trajectory of the spill, specially

in the inner domain, given the narrowness of the channel. Here, the wind can drive the slicks towards the coastline, avoiding their transport out of the port.

– Tide coefficient are not as important as thought– Instant of spill (inner): much more important than

tide coefficientIn conclusion:

– The most critical areas are located in the outer port– Thus, it is recommended to locate the containment

equipment close to the port’s entrance

TRAJECTORIES HIGHLIGHTSIntroduction



Trajectories

Weathering

Risk Management

• Regarding containment

• Regarding oil weathering


38

Light Fuel-Oil (F-O #2) or Gasoil– Use of dispersants not recommended– Containment and recovery with weak winds

Heavy or Medium Fuel Oil (#4 or #6)– Similar to Cat.3 crude oil

Saharan Blend (Cat.1 crude oil)– Containment and recovery with weak winds– Dispersants may be used with strong winds before 10

hrs off the spillMaya (Cat.3 crude oil)

– Containment and recovery are the only combating options given its ability to emulsify

OIL WEATHERING HIGHLIGHTSIntroduction



Trajectories

Weathering

Proposals• Regarding

containment

• Regarding oil weathering