Risk AssessmentExercise Navigation

Ships in Service Training Material

2009

Day 1

News Flash 1

Strait of Malacca

Ships in Service Training Material

REUTERS NEWSFLASH 1 - COLOMBO 5th January 2003.

PEACE TALKS BETWEEN SRI LANKAN GOVERNMENT AND TAMIL TIGERSFLOUNDER.

The Sri Lankan Government vowed this morning to continue to concentrate efforts to achieve peace with the Tamil Tigers despite a breakdown in the latest talks that would appear to have doomed the likelihood of an immediate and satisfactory conclusion to hostilities.

The four month talks collapsed late last night after Paul Dorai Raj, the Tamil Tigers political envoy, wrote off the Sri Lankan government’s United Nation brokered deal as “totally unacceptable and lacking in any substance”.

Raj also said that the potential deal was shrouded in “contradictions and complications” that forced him to doubt that the Sri Lankan government was “truly genuine in their dam to desire a balanced and impartial settlement”.

… / …

REUTERS NEWSFLASH 1 - COLOMBO 5th January 2003.

PEACE TALKS BETWEEN SRI LANKAN GOVERNMENT AND TAMIL TIGERSFLOUNDER.

There is strong suspicion that the Sri Lankan government chose to let the talks break down rather than face internal strains with their armed forces known for their belief that the talks represented capitulation to the Tamil Tigers.

Whilst the four month old cease-fire remains extant, Raj‘s statement that “unless they (the Sri Lankan Government and United Nations) carne back to the table with a greatly revised proposition within the next 24 hours, we will have no alternative but to review our approach to this effort “has raised fears that hostilities might recommence shortly thereafter.

Whilst the Tamil Tigers have adhered to the cease-fire, it is widely accepted that training has continued and that their capability has been greatly enhanced by the recent acquisition of a shipment of sophisticated military hardware.

As a precursor to the recommencement of hostilities, the Indian government has raised security levels in all their southern ports.

END 0F NEWSFLASII.

Day 4

News Flash 2

CHENAI

Asia

Ships in Service Training Material

REUTERS NEWSFLASH 2. - COLOMBO 9th January 2003.

CEASE-FIRE BETWEEN SRI LANKA AND TAMIL TIGERS SHATTERED BYHIJACKING 0F FERRY.

Fears over the robustness of the cease-fire between the Sri Lankan government and Tamil Tigers were proved well-founded following the hijacking and subsequent sinking of a passenger ferry late last night.

Tamil rebels boats surrounded the passenger ferry, the MV Misen, off the north-western coast and seized the Indonesian captain and a compatriot before attaching mines to the hull.

The remaining eight-man crew was lifted off the vessel just prior to it being blown up.

The Misen had just begun a ferry service between Sri Lanka’s north-western town of Mannar and the northern port of Kankesanthurai when the Tigers attacked it.

The two Indonesian crewmen were freed three days later, but the remaining eight crewmen — all Sri Lankan — were held by the Tigers. The Sri Lankan included six members of the majority Sinhalese community, and one each from the Muslim and Tamil minorities.

REUTERS NEWSFLASH 2. - COLOMBO 9th January 2003.

CEASE-FIRE BETWEEN SRI LANKA AND TAMIL TIGERS SHATTERED BYHIJACKING 0F FERRY.

The Tamil crewman was freed by the Tamil Tigers immediately and the others were released on shortly thereafter by the Tigers as a goodwill gesture to boost the United Nations attempts to broker peace in the island.

The Captain told reporters shortly after his release that his abductors told him that the reason for the blasting of the 500-seater ferry was because it allegedly transported security personnel.

“I told them that we were only taking civilians and refugees at that. No soldiers,” the Captain said after he was freed by the LTFE to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC).

He said armed guerrillas of the LTFE were constantly guarding him and the other crew members who were abducted from the ferry while it was anchored two and a half kilometres off the coast of Pesalai.

END 0F NEWSFLASH.

Day 13

News Flash 3

Middle East

Ships in Service Training Material

REUTERS NEWSFLASH 3. - LONDON 11th January 2003.

SIIIPS WITH SUSPECTED IRAQ ARMS TRACKED.

U.S and British intelligence services are tracking three mystery ships suspected of carrying Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, according to a newspaper report.

Asked to comment on the report in the Independent, a spokeswoman for the Ministry of Defense said on Wednesday: “We don’t discuss intelligence issues.

Financial market dealers said the story increased tensions about the situation in lraq again and some said it helped push safe-haven government bonds higher and the dollar lower in early trading today.

The Independent, quoting what it called authoritative shipping industry sources, said the giant cargo ships had been sailing around the world for the past three months while maintaining radio silence in violation of international maritime law..

The captains have failed to provide information on their cargoes or their destinations, it said. Intelligence chiefs are believed to be reluctant to stop and search the vessels for fear they might be scuttled.

REUTERS NEWSFLASH 3. - LONDON 11th January 2003.

SIIIPS WITH SUSPECTED IRAQ ARMS TRACKED.

The captains have failed to provide information on their cargoes or their destinations, it said. Intelligence chiefs are believed to be reluctant to stop and search the vessels for fear they might be scuttled.

That could spark an environmental disaster.

A shipping industry source told The Independent: “If lraq does have weapons of mass destruction, then a very large part of its capability could be afloat on the high seas right now.

“These ships have maintained radio silence for long periods and for a considerable time they have been steaming around in ever decreasing circles.”

REUTERS NEWSFLASH 3. - LONDON 11th January 2003.

SIIIPS WITH SUSPECTED IRAQ ARMS TRACKED.

The Independent said the ships were thought to have set sail from a country other than Iraq to avoid Western naval patrols.

It quoted defense experts as saying the ships’ cargo could have been smuggled through Syria or Jordan.

The papers said the ships were chartered by an Egypt-based shipping agent and are flying under the flags of three different nations.

The newspaper said the vessels were thought to have spent much of their time in the Indian Ocean.

They had berthed in a handful of Arab countries, including Yemen, it said, but gave no specific details as to where they may be now.

END 0F NEWSFLASH.

Day 19

MOMBASSA

East Coast Africa

Ships in Service Training Material

News Flash 4

INTELLIGENCE REPORT 4.RELEASED BY: Office of Counter-terrorism, US. Department of Statc.DATE: 17 January 2003. TIME: 0630 hours (EST).

GROUP: Somalian Radical Islamic Freedom Movernent (SFM) aka. The Kismayu Killers.

DESCRIPTION: A recently formed terrorist organization led by Shawkat Al’Oran, a retired businessman, to expand the nation of Islam by any and ail means. Made up of various functional committees including political, religious and military. Somalia’s main terrorist group, financed by Al Qaeda.

ACTIVITIES: Has carried out various attacks including the combined sea/airborne assault on the coastal resort of Kisrnayu where 76 holidaymakers were killed and a further 15 injured.

In addition has carried out numerous assassinations and suspected of carrying out a number of suicide attacks although these calmet be reliably confirmed. Technologically competent, attacks have utilized both light aircraft and high- powered boats and have demonstrated superior tactical awareness. Members have operated with Al Qaeda personnel on several operations.

INTELLIGENCE REPORT 4.RELEASED BY: Office of Counter-terrorism, US. Department of Statc.DATE: 17 January 2003. TIME: 0630 hours (EST).

LOCATION/AREA OF OPERATIONS: Primarily domestic but with known ambitions to expand operations internationally.

Heavy operational presence in Somalia but thus far has only demonstrated an ability to operate over a limited area, including the Gulf of Aden and the Kenya and Tanzania coast lines.

EXTERNAL AID: Has received considerable support, including safe haven, training, logistical assistance and financial aid from both Al Qaeda and Gama’a al-Islamiyya (the Islamic Group, IG).

STRENGTH: Unknown.

FUTURE OPERATIONS: Information gathered indicates an impending attack on a western target to demonstrate to affiliates/backers that they have the capability to operate internationally and are thus worthy of increased support, both financial and materiel.

Mombassa

East Coast Africa

Ships in Service Training Material

REUTERS NEWSFLASH. - NAIROBI 19 January 2003.TERRORIST BOMBS KILLS 11 ISRAELIS AND HOTEL WORKERS IN KENYA.

M least 11 Israelis and hotel workers were feared dead and dozens injured after a double terrorist attack on a tourist hotel at Kikambala near Mombassa this morning. The dead included two children.

They were killed when suicide bombers attacked Paradise Hotel at Kikambala, on the North Coast as guests sat down to breakfast and seconds later a light aircraft flew over the hotel, dropping clusters of small bombs which reduced the hotel to rubble.

At the same time a battery of two missiles was fired at an Israeli charter plane at Mombassa’s Moi International Airport but the terror attack failed when the hand-held Stinger missiles failed to hit their target as the plane hurtled down the runway.

None of the 264 passengers and crew was injured and the plane continued safety to Tel Aviv.

The attacks were immediately blamed by a Kenyan diplomat on the al Qaeda network of Osama bin Laden. Mr. John Sawe,

REUTERS NEWSFLASH. - NAIROBI 19 January 2003.TERRORIST BOMBS KILLS 11 ISRAELIS AND HOTEL WORKERS IN KENYA.

Kenya’s Ambassador to Israel, said in the capital Tel Aviv, ‘There is no doubt in my mind that al Qaeda is behind this attack, because we have no domestic problems, no terrorism in our country, and we have no problem with our neighbors, no problem whatsoever.”

At the time of flying this report, nobody had yet claimed responsibility for the attack.

As news of the atrocity was flashed around the world, a special charter jet packed with doctors and investigators took off from Israel and headed for Mombassa.

Leading the medical team on board was Dr. David Silverstein, President Moi’s personal physician.

At the hotel, initial reports were that a green four-wheel drive Pajero carrying four suicide bombers crashed through a security barrier and rammed the reception desk of the makuti-thatched two-storey hotel.

REUTERS NEWSFLASH. - NAIROBI 19 January 2003.TERRORIST BOMBS KILLS 11 ISRAELIS AND HOTEL WORKERS IN KENYA.

The car immediately exploded in a bail of flames, killing ail four terrorists aboard. The time was precisely 0802 hours.

The bodies of the four bombers were burnt beyond recognition.Bodies of five of their victims- one white and four Africans – lay in the reception area. Other bodies sprawled in the hotel lobby, which collapsed and was reduced to rubble.

A light aircraft flew over the hotel minutes after the explosion dropping small bombs, which flattened the 146-roomed hotel, which was fully booked at the time of he attack.

The guests who had just checked in were being welcomed by traditional dancers and sipping welcoming drinks when the attack happened.

Witnesses said the suicide bombers appeared to have followed the 200 new Israeli guests from the airport to the hotel. They traveled in two buses, three minibuses and two smaller vans.

REUTERS NEWSFLASH. - NAIROBI 19 January 2003.TERRORIST BOMJ3 KILLS 11 ISRAELIS AND HOTEL WORKERS IN KENYA.

Some buildings near the hotel were set a blaze by the explosions. Many guests were injured and were taken to hospitals in Mombassa. Nairobi hospitals were placed on high alert to receive any of the casualties.

The charter plane at Mombassa airport belonged to Al Kia, the second largest airline after El Al, the Israeli national carrier. Popular with Israelis, the company operates out of Tel Aviv and charters jets to ail parts of the world.

The international airport was immediately sealed forcing scheduled flights to Mombassa to be diverted to Nairobi and Eldoret.

Preliminary reports indicated that before the missile attack al the airport, a four wheel drive Pajero was spotted cruising the perimeter fence. The missiles were fired from a field at Jornvu, near the offices of the Israeli- owned Zakhern Construction Company and the attackers left behind two Stinger missile launchers at the site, which is only 100 metres from a police booth.

Police were quickly combing the area in search of the vehicle and its passengers.

REUTERS NEWSFLASH. - NAIROBI 19 January 2003.TERRORIST BOMBS KILLS 11 ISRAELIS AND HOTEL WORKERS IN KENYA.

Israeli and US embassy officials declined to comment, promising to do so later.As Kenya responded to the second serious attack terrorist attack on its sol, following the bombing of the US embassy in Nairobi, in 1998, regular police backed by the General Service Unit rushed to reinforce the guard at Israeli interests in Mombassa and the capital.

Senior Deputy Commissioner of Police Japheth Mwania has flown to Mombassa to lead investigations into the attacks.The twin raids carne only a few days before US Marines begin military exercises at the Coast. The exercises, called Edged Mallet, involve soldiers from the US, Britain, Germany and Kenya.

Vice-President Musalia Mudavadi said President Moi, who is in Kampala on a farewell tour of East Africa, had already been alerted and at the same time Government security agents had been mobilized to protect the country against further atrocities and to investigate the latest attacks. “We wish to assure the public that ail necessary measures are being taken to safeguard Kenyan interests,” he said.

END 0F NEWSFLASH.

ISPSScenarios

Risk Assessment Formfor the exercise

Ships in Service Training Material

ScenarioThreat

Capability+ Intent

Vulnerability

Likelihood

Threat XVulnerability

Consequence Total Risk

Damage or destruction of the ship by explosivedevices, arson, sabotage or vandalism

Bring explosive aboard ship

Place explosive in cargo

Attach explosive to hull of the ship

Hacking or seizure of the ship

Tampering with cargo

Stowaways

Smuggling weapons

Use of the ship to carry those that intendtoo cause harm

Use the ship as a weapon

Attacks the ship from seaward

Attacks the ship whilst at sea

Taking hostages and killing people

Vandalism

Piracy