risk analysis responding to the unexpected harold denton, marija ilic, peter juro, frederick...
TRANSCRIPT
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Risk Analysis
Responding to the Unexpected
Harold Denton, Marija Ilic, Peter Juro, Frederick Krimgold, Art Lerner-Lam, Jeryl
Mumpower Dick Larson, coordinator
NSF
February 28, 2002
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R = P C• R = Risk
• P = Probability of the crisis event
• C = Cost related to event
• Design and build systems in anticipation of largest risks and to mitigate them (deterrence, prevention, mitigation)
• Ultimate outcome of our work is a set of decisions d that relate to this problem
• Then R(d) = P(d) C(d)
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Substantial Research Needed
• Not consulting
• Not operations
• Identify a small set of big research topics
• Standard risk analysis is a large industry, hundreds of millions of dollars annually
• NSF should focus on new potential high impact methods
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P estimate C and its mitigation
Natural disasters
Terrorists
No Yes
YesYes
NSF's Interests
Include causal mechanismsthat give rise to P
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C = Cost(BLUE - RESEARCH TOPIC)
• It's a vector
• Who bears it? How do you calculate it, especially long term societal effects?
• How do you minimize it dynamically in a state dependent manner as the response unfolds.
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P = Probability
• Well-known how to estimate this for recurring natural disasters.
• Much less known for emerging terrorist threats --- need for Bayesian research
• Scenario analysis• Role playing• Demystify perpetrators, so you know their
constraints and dynamics
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Recognize need for distributional vector time-dependent definition
of risks.R = P C
Expected value has its limitations
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Risk Analysis Research
• Need a taxonomy of Risk Analysis• Anticipatory mitigation may use game theory and
randomized or mixed strategies. 9/11 was possible by a intervention in a deterministic system.
• Bayesian time-dependent risk assessment methods needed.
• Role playing for identification of huge risks when no time series is available. Vulnerabilty assessment
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Risk Analysis Research - con't.
• Relationships between regulatory structure and risks, both P and C, and – their distribution across segments of the population– scientific basis for standards
• Dis-aggregate 'terrorism.' Create a detailed causal goals-oriented taxonomy.
• Data analysis should focus on rigorous decision theoretic approaches
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Risk Analysis Research - con't.
• Methodology needed: cascading causal mechanisms leading to escalating disasters, as a means to identify vulnerabilities and to manage responses– Agriculture– Business symbol (McDonalds)– Bioterror
• Research on non-events (null states)
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Prevention and Deterrence
• Early warning systems, both technological and human– Inter-relationships between analytical models and
data mining
• Game theory (randomized) approaches,for mitigation and response
• High school kids national contests for vulnerability identification (real or on the computer?)
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Response
• Consider all the social-economic-political aspects of response strategies
• Decentralized decision making -- its stability and its effective implementation
• Stochastic dynamic decision making in a noisy pressured environment
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Time Sequence of Events
Event commences
Event first detected
Event verified
First (local) response
Regional response
Time t
t0 t1 t2 t3 t4
EstimatedRisks of
EventContinually
Updated