risk allocation in transportation infrastructure … 2-2.pdf · 2019-02-16 · diversified across...
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ECRI Amsterdam 2016© 2016 Fluor Corporation
RISK ALLOCATION IN TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS
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Hans DekkerPresident, Infrastructure
ECRI Amsterdam 2016
Agenda● Fluor Profile● Infrastructure Business Line● Tappan Zee Bridge New York (video)● Purple Line Project Maryland USA● Cost and Contingency Planning● Questions
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Fluor Profile● A leading Engineering, Procurement, Fabrication, Construction and Maintenance Company
● Integrated solutions delivery model● Long term global presence and mega‐project experience● Diversified across energy, industrial, maintenance (MMAI), and government markets
● Full life‐cycle capabilities from early conceptual studies, to EPFC, on through to Sustaining Capital phases of projects
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2015 +2011 – 2012 2013 – 2015ExecuteExecuteImplementImplement
Fluor Transformation
Strategic Framework
BTI Study
Restructure
Cascade
Construction
Fabrication
Supply Chain
EvaluateEvaluate One Fluor
Integrated Solutions
Growth
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Infrastructure Business Line
● Fluor is an industry leader in delivering large, complex infrastructure projects.
● We are at the forefront of private development of public infrastructure around the world
● We have a proven track record of implementing transportation projects timely, that offer lower life‐cycle costs and considerably less risk to the public sector.
● Fluor have executed 11 PPP/DBFM projects in last 15 years with a total capex of more than $12.5 billion.
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Core Markets & Regions
● Core Markets Roads Bridges Rail Commercial
● Core Regions North America Western Europe Middle East Asia Pacific
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Infrastructure Project Highlights
A9 Amsterdam P3
Disney China
Saudi Landbridge
Sharq Crossing
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Project Highlights
Dallas Horseshoe
Tappan Zee BridgeDenver Eagle P3
SF Bay Bridge
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$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Billion
USD
Asia Pacific (excludingChina)
Africa
Middle East
Europe
North America
Infrastructure Addressable Market by Region
Source: Fluor Internal estimates based on various information sources including IHS, EIA, SNL, WMI, GAO, Thompson Reuters, Bloomberg, company and other data.
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Infrastructure Market Overview● Summary Transportation design firms are reporting the ‘best market conditions in years’ in the U.S. due to Fixing America’s Surface Transportation (FAST) legislation. Several U.S. states passed public‐private partnership (P3) enabling legislation in the quarter. Canadian P3 funding and projects continue to move forward. The impact of Brexit has created political and economic uncertainty in the U.K. and more broadly throughout Europe. The Middle East has a flow of contract awards for infrastructure projects however we are seeing delays in this market generally. Asia Pacific infrastructure construction continues to move at a rapid pace. Australia added six projects to its national priority list.
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Transport infrastructure investment to 2025
Source: Oxford Economics, PWC report
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0
Asia Pacific
US & Canada
Western Europe
Latin America
FSU/CEE
Middle East
Africa
Cumulative transport infrastructure investment ($trn)
Roads Rail Ports Airports
Cumulative transport infrastructure investment to 2025
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Transportation infrastructure investment is expected to increase at an average annual rate of 5% globally from 2014 to 2025.
Asia Pacific is forecasted to be the largest growth market.
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North America infrastructure market has large growth potential● Infrastructure main target markets Design Build and P3 projects in Road, Bridge and Transit
● Key growth market Federal Fixing America’s Surface Transportation (FAST) act ‐ signed on Dec 4th 2015
− Authorized $305 billion over fiscal year 2016 to 2020 for highway, rail, etc. − First long‐term authorization act in a decade, provides 5 years of funding certainty for infrastructure investment
There are 33 US States that have enabling legislation for PPP (P3) in transport sector− 2016 is record year with combined USD 7.86bn capex− Purple Line and LaGuardia Airport account for USD 6bn of that amount
Canadian government is committed to deficit spending to advance infra projects
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United States P3 Overview
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Infrastructure - Prospects and Opportunities
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Construction Cost Approx. $2.25 billion
Delivery Method DBFOM PPP
Payment • Progress Payments during Construction• Lump Sum Revenue Service Availability
Payment • Lump Sum Final Completion Payment• Availability Payments during operations
Timing Construction: 2015-2021 Operations: 2021-2051
The Purple Line Project The Project involves the development, design, construction,
financing, operation and maintenance of a 16.2 mile light railtransit line that extends from Bethesda to New Carrollton,providing direct connections to four branches of theWashington Metropolitan Transit Authority Metrorail systemas well as all three Maryland Area Regional Commuter raillines and Amtrak’s Northeast Corridor
There will be twenty-one permanent stations and approximately 55-64 light rail vehicles (“LRVs”)
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Consortium Overview
Project Structure
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Flow Down of Obligations
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Risk categories● Project Risks Site Design, construction and commissioning Hard and soft facility maintenance Asset ownership
● Corporate and legal risks● Financial and market risks● Legislative and government policy risk● Environmental risk● Other risks (planned and unplanned!)
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Significant Design Build Risks● Labor PLA with selected trades for self‐perform work
● Political/Public Engage and inform stakeholders Risk identification/mitigation process
● Testing and Commissioning Tunnel Systems
● Utility Relocations
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Significant Operate and Maintain Risks● Availability transport infrastructure 20hrs/day, 7 days a week, 7.5 minutes headway
− Provide Alternate Bus Service in the event of Service Interruptions Includes stations
● Availability Light Rail Vehicles Staffing
● Safety● Coordination Regional Third Parties like University of Maryland, WMATA, MARC, Prince George’s County, Montgomery County, various utilities
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Cost and Contingency Planning
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Unknown
Behavioural Patterns
Uncertain Technical Upgrades
Macro-economic Factors
Claims and Disputes
Variations
Certain Original Scope
Final Cost
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Emerging Risks: Geotechnical● Geotechnical risk Relief Relief depending on proximity of sample information provided by client No relief; Contractor responsibility for site conditions
− Limited boring information provided if any− Inability to perform own survey during bid process− Competent engineer should have known better
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Emerging Risks: Notices● Notices Behavioral
− Condition president − Sufficiently informative, cause and consequent− Cannot provide for that in contract
● Proactively require the project team to confirm they have considered notifiable events and issued all relevant notices – and do so regularly.
● Do not accept nil return● Relationships should be two way
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Questions
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