Rise and ShineQuiz 3Meteorology 415

What are the ‘probable’ causes of the two boundaries seen on this visible satellite picture

from last Thursday?

Causes of the boundary (1 then 2)?

•A) lake breeze and old front

•B) wind shift and old front

•C) wind shift and ridge convection

•D) old front and wind shift

•E) developing cold fronts

Answer: C – wind shift and ridge convection

williamsportMeteorology 415 – Fall 2012

Third Forecast Review

WilliamsportPopulation (2009)

 • Total 29,304

 • Density 3,456.3/sq mi (3,456.3/km2)

Williamsport - OBS

• KIPT 061754Z 13003KT 10SM CLR 27/19 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP114 T02720189 10278 20178 58010=

• KIPT 061854Z 11005KT 10SM FEW040 29/20 A2986 RMK AO2 SLP107 MDT CU N T02890200=

• KIPT 061954Z VRB04KT 10SM FEW040 28/20 A2984 RMK AO2 SLP101 MDT CU N T02780200=

• KIPT 062022Z 15005KT 10SM TS SCT040 27/20 A2984 RMK AO2 TSB20 FQT LGTICCCCG NW=

• KIPT 062054Z 19007G15KT 10SM TS BKN040 28/20 A2984 RMK AO2 TSB20 SLP102 FQT LGTICCCCG NW T02830200 55012=

• KIPT 062154Z 18006KT 10SM BKN043 BKN050 OVC100 28/20 A2984 RMK AO2 TSE50RAB31E50 SLP101 MDT CU ALQDS P0000 T02830200=

• KIPT 062204Z 16006KT 10SM TS BKN045 28/20 A2984 RMK AO2 TSB03=

• KIPT 062254Z VRB06KT 10SM TS BKN042 27/20 A2985 RMK AO2 TSB03 SLP105 T02670200=

• KIPT 062354Z 21005KT 10SM -TSRA SCT050 BKN075 BKN100 23/19 A2986 RMK AO2 RAB44 SLP110 FQT LTGICCCCG NW P0000 60000 T02280189 10289 20228 53006=

• KIPT 070015Z 35004KT 8SM TSRA BKN020 BKN065 BKN090 23/19 A2989 RMK AO2 FQT LTGICCCCG P0002=

• KIPT 070027Z 16007KT 10SM TSRA BKN020 BKN065 BKN090 22/19 A2988 RMK AO2 TSE25B27 P0002=

Williamsport - OBS• KIPT 062354Z 21005KT 10SM -TSRA SCT050 BKN075 BKN100 23/19 A2986 RMK AO2 RAB44 SLP110 FQT LTGICCCCG NW

P0000 60000 T02280189 10289 20228 53006=

• KIPT 070015Z 35004KT 8SM TSRA BKN020 BKN065 BKN090 23/19 A2989 RMK AO2 FQT LTGICCCCG P0002=

• KIPT 070027Z 16007KT 10SM TSRA BKN020 BKN065 BKN090 22/19 A2988 RMK AO2 TSE25B27 P0002=

• KIPT 070054Z 00000KT 10SM TSRA BKN020 BKN065 BKN090 22/19 A2989 RMK AO2 TSE25B27 SLP119 FQT LTGICCCCG N-E P0002 T02220194=

• KIPT 070101Z 00000KT 10SM OVC055 21/20 A2990 RMK AO2 TSE0055RAE0055 LTG DSNT N-E=

• KIPT 070054Z 00000KT 10SM TSRA BKN020 BKN065 BKN090 22/19 A2989=

• KIPT 070101Z 00000KT 10SM OVC055 21/20 A2990=

• KIPT 070130Z 00000KT 10SM BKN027 OVC050 22/20 A2991 RMK AO2 TSE0055RAE0055 LTG DSNT N-E=

• KIPT 070154Z 00000KT 10SM OVC027 22/20 A2990 RMK AO2 TSE0055RAE0055 SLP122 LTG DSNT N-E T02220200=

• KIPT 070247Z AUTO 34004G14KT 10SM BKN030 21/17 A2994 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT N-SE PRESRR=

• KIPT 070254Z AUTO 05006KT 10SM BKN032 21/17 A2993 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT N-SE SLP133 60002 T02060167 53024=

• KIPT 070354Z AUTO 36003KT 10SM TS SCT038 BKN050 BKN080 21/16 A2992 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT NE AND E AND SW TSB52RAB36E47 SLP128 P0000 T02060161=

• KIPT 070454Z AUTO 27007KT 2SM +TSRA FEW023 BKN045 OVC060 19/17 A2995 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SE AND S RAB48 SLP139 P0013 T01940167 402890167=

• KIPT 070505Z AUTO 09009KT 10SM -TSRA FEW023 BKN045 BKN060 19/17 A2991 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS PRESFR P0001=

• KIPT 070505Z AUTO 09009KT 10SM -TSRA FEW023 BKN045 BKN060 19/17A2991=

• KIPT 070554Z AUTO 03004KT 10SM CLR 19/17 A2991 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSE42RAE08 SLP125 P0001 60016 T01890167 10222 20189 58008=

• KIPT 070625Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM VCTS SCT041 18/17 A2991 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSB19=

• KIPT 070642Z AUTO VRB03KT 10SM VCTS BKN043 19/17 A2993 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSB19E36B42=

Williamsport - obs

• KIPT 070654Z AUTO 16003KT 10SM VCTS OVC045 19/17 A2993 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSB19E36B42 SLP131 T01890172=

• KIPT 070754Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM SCT060 SCT075 19/18 A2990 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT NE AND NW TSE53 SLP123 T01890178=

• KIPT 070854Z AUTO 00000KT 8SM CLR 18/17 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP126 T01780167 51001=

• KIPT 070954Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM CLR 18/17 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP125 T01780167=

• KIPT 071054Z 00000KT 5SM BR FEW005 17/17 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP131 T01720167=

• KIPT 071154Z 00000KT 7SM SCT005 18/17 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP140 70016 T01780167 10189 20172 53014 $=

Williamsport– surface map

Williamsport – upper air

williampsort - satellite

Williamsport - satellite

Willamsport – anticipated radar

williamsport -radar

williamsport - radar

Williamsport radar

williamsport- verifications

Williamsport- scores

williamsport – lessons learned

• Be careful when a jet streak is predicted to cross a weak surface pressure field where it is marginally unstable.

• Look at the details of surface pressure and wind field to determine possible convergence zones.

• Remember that morning low clouds will delay the normal diurnal cycle.

• Nocturnal convection, especially after midnight, may inhibit the formation of fog – even after some rain due to a developing subsidence inversion.

williamsport – lessons learned

Applied forecast

Risk of Delay

Applied forecast

If delayed – for how long?

Applied forecast

Alternate Solution

View at 9am

Weekly winners

Applied forecast

• The Minnesota Twins are hosting the Kansas City Royals at 8:05pm LDT. The teams’ PR department is planning to give away a helium filled balloon to all attendees to be released simultaneously after the national anthem provided that the wind is not from the south-southwest at more than 10mph as this would carry the balloons into the path of helicopters spraying at Columbia Park.

Applied forecast

• What do you expect the winds to be at 01z?

• A) 180-210 at 15kts

• B) 211-240 at 15kts

• C) 180-210 at 10kts

• D) 211-240 at 10kts

• E) 241-270 at 5kts