riel miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009 novelty and post- secondary education: an exercise...
TRANSCRIPT
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Novelty and Post-Secondary
Education: An Exercise in Futures
Literacy------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Riel MillerMutual Learning Workshop 1
Systems Thinking for Foresight:The case of Romanian Higher
Education System23-25 September 2009Bucharest, ROMANIA
Photo credit: Mark Schacter ©
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
“The straight warp of necessity, not to be swerved from its ultimate course – its every alternating vibration, indeed, only tending to that; free will still free to ply her shuttle between given threads; and chance, though restrained in its play within the right lines of necessity, and sideways in its motions directed by free will, though thus prescribed to by both, chance by turns rules either, and has the last featuring blow at events.” Herman Melville, Moby-Dick
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
1. Anticipation Systems and Futures Literacy
• Anticipation matters for decision making
• The future is fundamentally indeterminate
• Integrating indeterminacy into foresight in a consistent way – three dimensions of the future
• Futures Literacy
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Bugs Bunny Anticipates
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Every-day anticipation
Make your bets – now (in the present)
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
M – the model of the future:How and what we “see” and “tell” about tomorrow
changes what we see and DO now
S : object system
M : model of S
E : effector system
Source: Robert Rosen, Anticipatory Systems: Philosophical, Mathematical, & Methodological Foundations., Pergamon Press, Oxford, 1985. Slide by A. H. Louie, Mathematical Biologist
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Potential of the Present
Anticipatory Models: Different ways of “seeing” the potential of the present
Projected Futures: Bears, GBU and
Planned
ImaginableFutures
??
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?
?
?
?
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Bear Scenarios: Papa, Mama and Baby
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
DemographicsPopulation
Time
Baby
Mama
Papa
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009Ennio Morricone
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
The Good, The Bad & The Ugly
Global Warming:
Scenarios
New Agreement(good)
No agreements(bad)
Muddle through
(ugly)Human impact
on climate change reduced
Massive climate disruption
Moderate human induced
disruption of climate
Build composite scenarios combining trends & preferences
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
The Good, The Bad and The Ugly
Bear Scenarios Knowledge Driven
Commercially Driven
Mixed Model
Low rate of tech change
Low enrollement growth
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Medium enrollment growth
Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario 6
High Enrollment growth
Scenario 7 Scenario 8 Scenario 9
High rate of tech change
Low enrollement growth
Scenario 10 Scenario 11 Scenario 12
Medium enrollment growth
Scenario 13 Scenario 14 Scenario 15
High Enrollment growth
Scenario 16 Scenario 17 Scenario 18
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Desire for Predictive Models?
Subject: Social Changes Due to Climate Change
Time
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
The End of Certainty
… we are now able to include probabilities in the formulation of the basic laws of physics. Once this is done, Newtonian determinism fails; the future is no longer determined by the present….
Mankind is at a turning point, the beginning of a new rationality in which science is no longer identified with certitude and probability with ignorance. … science is no longer limited to idealized and simplified situations but reflects the complexity of the real world, a science that views us and our creativity as part of a fundamental trend present at all levels of nature.Ilya Prigogine, The End of Certainty: Time, Chaos and the New Laws of Nature
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Actualization, instantiation,
the simultaneity of
variably thick presents in
variable and multiple
temporal states
Time
Cloud of now - phenomena
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Defining the Future:
Distinguishing three
dimensions of the potential
of the present
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Contingency futures: a tsunami
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Contingency futures: winning the lottery
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Optimization futures: chess, farming, assembly line
• Goal is given• Rules are given• Resources are given
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Exploratory futures: imagining the potential of the present
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Future Contexts: From Simple and Closed to Complex and Open
Exploration
Degree of complexity
Complex
Degree of Openness
SimpleClosed Open
Optimization(chess game)
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Less managable – less clarity of
goal
More reflexivity
More managable – more clarity
of goal
Less reflexivity
Greater freedom and ambiguity - spontaneity
Regime 1 (Agriculture)
Regime 2 (Industrial)
Regime 3 (Learning society)
Why Futures Literacy? Changing Contexts
Over time and in different contexts the extent of optimisation (known goals with known resources and values) and exploration change and therefore the
foresight methods that need to be used.
Different contexts and times?
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
What is Futures Literacy?Changing our capacity to think about the future
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Futures Literacy• Futures Literacy is a way of thinking about the future
(foresight) that is consistent with the principles of an exploratory context – non-probabilistic, spontaneous and experimentalist.
• Futures Literacy is the capacity to imagine the present differently using techniques that help identify/escape present assumptions and continuously invent/recount (tell/describe) stories/pictures that detect symptoms of inter-systemic dissonance and helps to re-establish shared sense making/meaning.
• Futures Literacy is to a spontaneous society what text literacy was to industrial society. It is the way to use the reality of complexity, heterogeneity, heterarchy and ambiguity to live freedom responsibly.
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
FL – A more consistent approach to linking ontology and epistemology in
anticipatory thinking• Contingent – the potential to be acted upon by an
outside force– Functioning of AS: simulation and practice, learning by
doing, early warning, transparency• Optimization – the potential to be subject to control
– Functioning of AS: Better calculation – models, projections, clarity and “certainty” of rules
• Exploratory – the potential to be without precedent, arising from inspiration, creativity and discovery– Functioning of AS: non-teleological imagining of changes
in the conditions of change, rigorous imagining and enhanced narrative capacities for spontaneity
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Learning by doing• Level 1 futures literacy
– Temporal awareness, values, expectations – defining the subject and choice of anticipatory focus: contingency, optimization or exploration
• Level 2 futures literacy– Rigorous imagining: narrative, analytical
framing – for policy iso-probable, iso-desirable
• Level 3 futures literacy– Questioning anticipatory assumptions and
assessing current choicesNot “a tool”, a way of thinking about the learning process that
futures processes take – refining anticipatory systems
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Thinking about the potential of the present
Subject(model)
TimeNOW
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Imagining a Learning Intensive Society: Shifting the Anticipatory Assumptions for Thinking about Education
2. Changes in the Conditions of Change
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Systemic Economic Transformation
“Next stage” of market economy – beyond mass-production and mass-consumption
• Nature of production & consumption
• Organisational attributes of wealth creation
• Predominant type of economic activity
• Scope of transaction systems
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Sequential Production, Consumption, Resource
Deployment Process
Supply Demand Allocation Supply Demand Allocation Repeat cycle
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Conception
Management
Execution
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Unbundled (individuals
)
Top down
Personal creativit
y
Bundled
(firms)
From Hierarchy to Heterarchy
Mass-era worker
and consumer
Empowered team-worker,
informed shopper
Artist
Future consumer/ producer - cyber
creator
Unique Creation: Beyond supply & demand
Organisation of Value Added
Relationship between conception & execution
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Clouds of value creation – transformation of the anticipatory conditions of the economy
& society
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Industrial(goods & services,public & private)
Craft/Creative
Household
Agriculture
AgriculturalSociety
IndustrialSociety
LearningSociety
Compositional TransformationShare of total wealth creation by source
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
What is a learning intensive society?
Source: Riel Miller, XperidoX Futures Consulting; [email protected]
Average intensity of know-what
Average intensity of know-how
Average intensity of know-who
Average intensity of know-why (decision making capacity)
Agricultural SocietyAgricultural Society Industrial SocietyIndustrial Society Learning SocietyLearning Society
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Changing Composition of Output
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Time
Perc
enta
ge S
hare
Industrial products Innovation (S&T/R&D)
Personal products Creativity (Refinement of taste)
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
What role for the university - now? What are the anticipatory
assumptions?
• Oppositional?• Marginal?• Enabler?
Photo credit: Mark Schacter, www.luxetveritas.ca
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Living knowledge(stock)
Discovery(flow)
Knowledge Stocks and FlowsWhere does the university fit?
All knowledge
Public sectorPreservation Net
new
Private sectorPreservation Net
new
Cover it allNon-institutional
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Are universities – post-secondary systems – part of the problem or part of the solution, or both? What are our anticipatory assumptions? Acting on values now!
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Policy: Making a Difference• Long-run change is compositional
– The old co-exists with the new, reallocation leading to shifts in the share of the total
• There are two basic types of change (both are dialectical and usually only partially rational, explicit):– Incremental improvement (continuous refinement of
existing system)– Incremental transformation (cumulative alterations that
eventually create a new system)• What role for universities? Choices now based on
anticipatory assumptions…
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Post-Secondary Role?
Interdependency
Time/space flexibility of
daily life
Limited
Unlimited
?
Limited Full
Conditions for transparency & trust: fluidity and spontaneity
?
?
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Post-Secondary Role?
Use of information
Practical complexity of
networking
Limited
Unlimited
Limited Full
Embrace complexity and freedom
?
?
?
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
“Virtually every step in the history of human innovation and invention has come about in the wake of someone asking about imaginary possibilities, speculating about what would happen if and reflecting on yet-unrealised and perhaps unrealisable possibilities.” Nicholas Rescher, Imagining Irreality
Thank you