rics uk economy and property market chart book - december 2015

Economics

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Will the Chancellor’s Housing Policies Increase Supply?

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December 2015

UK Property Market Chart Book

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2 © RICS Economics 2015 December 2015

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RICS Chief Economist Simon Rubinsohn’s view:

“The good news is that housing is near the top of the governments agenda when it comes policymaking. Less welcome in my book as least is the overwhelming focus on ownership at the expense of renting, whether it is private or social/aff ordable. I am yet to be convinced that the former tenure is right for everyone and despite the panoply of subsidies in place to encourage it, the prospect of higher borrowing costs as 2016 progresses provides a timely warning as to the challenges fi rst time buyers need to be mindful of. Whether the latest package of measures provides the basis for a material increase in supply remains to be seen. My best guess is that it will result in the delivery of a higher level of new housing units but not on such a scale as to fully address the aff ordability question.”

The OBR’s revised forecasts for tax revenues gave the Chancellor some room to manouvre in his Autumn Statement (see chart on the right). This enabled him to soften the cutbacks to departmental spending in the near term while still acheiving a surplus by 2019-20. Their is a risk that the OBR’s revisions may prove a little too optimistic which would force the Chancellor to either abandon his timetable for a surplus or attempt to cut departmental spending even further. However, for the time being the revisions give George Osbourne some breathing space during what has been a diffi cult spell for him politically.

Looking back, the two most unexpected features of the Autumn Statement were the Chancellors U-turn on controversial plans to slash tax-credits and the announcement that spending on policing would be protected. The defeat of the tax-credit bill in the House of Lords and the tragic events in Paris a few weeks ago, which brought domestic security into greater focus, will have forced the Chancellor’s hand, to some extent, on both issues. However, these announcements still gave the statement quite a generous tone. The slight easing in the pace of consolidation over the next couple of years will be partly off set by revenue from the new apprenticeship levy and by a new additional layer of stamp duty on buy-to-let and second home property purchases. However, the economy will still undergo fi scal

Economic comment - Will the Chancellor’s housing policies increase supply?

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consolidation equivalent to around 1% of GDP next year and over the following three years. Given the assumed fi scal multiplier (pass through eff ect of govt. spending to GDP), this should drag around 0.5% off headline growth next year.

Some of the other headline grabbers from the Chancellors statement were policies aimed at improving access to home-ownership. These included the Help to Buy (HTB) Shared Ownership scheme and the Help to Buy London scheme.

OBR Revisions to UK Tax Revenue Forecast

The policies will aim to increase access for fi rst-time buyers, with the government either taking a direct equity stake in the property or providing an equity loan, interest free for 5 years. While previous HTB equity loan schemes do look to have provided the impetus to house building in recent years, they have also added to price pressures by stimulating demand and we suspect the more generous terms available on this new London specifi c policy will be no diff erent. With the shared ownership scheme available for use with both new and existing properties, it has the potential to add to price pressures with less direct infl uence on house building.

Another housing policy measure was the announcement of direct grants to home builders to provide 200k homes that will be off ered to fi rst time buyers at discounts of 20% off

the market price. To what extent this adds to house building rather than crowding out existing development in an industry that is already struggling with capacity constraints can only be seen in time. Indeed, the Q3 RICS Construction Market Survey reported record high levels of skills shortages with an average of 53% of respondents citing labour shortages across all of the main trades and professions. While the housing policy measures should result in an increase in supply they are also likely to fuel further price growth and, to this eff ect, they are arguably only one part of the solution to the current crisis.

Despite the ongoing fi scal drag, the UK economy is expected to continue to expand relatively fi rmly though next year with most forecasters expecting growth in the 2%-2.5% range. Recent data releases show continued steady improvement in the labour market with 177k jobs added in the three months to September. However, with the prospect of a return to price growth in line with the Bank’s 2% target still a long way off , and with global uncertainties weighing on policymakers minds, the governor of the Bank has said that he expects rates to remain low for “some time”. While we still expect the fi rst rise to occur in May next year, it would not take much of a deterioration in the international environment to delay this.

Meanwhile, in the US, policymakers will meet in Decmeber having given strong signals that the fi rst rate hike in nearly 10 years is a signifi cant possibility. Recent labour market data has been strong and provided the November payrolls data don’t yield any substantial adverse surprises, the Fed is likely to raise its benchmark rate by 0.25%. Meanwhile, in Europe, with infl ation fl atlining and only very meagre growth experienced in the second and third quarters, the ECB looks likely to add further monetary stimulus at its December meeting. Just what form the stimulus will take is uncertain but the strong signals being used by policymakers suggest that a two-pronged approach, both extending the asset purchase programme and cutting the deposit rate, is not off the table.



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© RICS Economics 2015 December 2015


13

Market Surveys & Reports The Economics Team

Why the RICS surveys?mn op q r s tu v w wx y v z { | }p ~p } v zp v �� op � v {� ~p w |� � wp � � | }p { � v � v �p �p z� { | z o v � {p u ~ | yp {� � � �� mn op q r s t { � ~ �p �x � op �p {� { o v ~� x � p ~ � wp � } | z } | y � � v ~ v � o v � {p u ~ | yp { � z } � y� | � |� � | z v � ~ � |p �� mn op q r s t t � ~ �p � o � { �p p z � � v v } wp � } | z � | z } | y � � v ~ � v ~ � op } | ~p y� | v z v � � z } | z �p y� | v z u v | z� { | z � op r � � | z }p �� z } � op ~p � v ~p � op ¡ y v � �p ~ y |� wu ~ vu p ~� � � � ~ ¢p � v �p ~� w w� � £ � ¤ ¥ �� ¦ �� §mn op q r s t s v � �p ~ y |� w � ~ vu p ~� � t � ~ �p � | { � z p � yp w wp z� u ~p } | y� v ~ v � � �� ~p r � � � v� � w ~p � � ~ z {� � ¨ � ¤ ¦ � ©� ª « � ¬ � ¦ � �® ° ± ® ² ³ µ ¶ · ¹ ® ° ® º » ¹ º ² ¼ ½¾ ¿À Á ¼ Â¾ ÃÀ ² ° ³ ¼¾ Ä® ¼ ¿À ² ¿ ¯ Å ¼ » ¹ À Å ® ¼ Æ Ç¾ ¹ ® ° ® º » ¹ ÀÈ É Ê ËÌ Í Î ÏÌ Ð Ñ ÎÒ Ó Ô Ò Õ ÖÌ Ñ ×Ø Õ ÙÌ Ú ÛÜ Ý Ð Ñ Þ Ó Ú ßà à àá â ãä å á æ â ç è é æ ê å ãë ç ì í â îï ð å ê â ñ ï òó É Ê ô Ý Ð Í Ñ ÕØ õ Ñ Î Ý Ð Ô Ò Õ ÖÌ Ñ × Ø Õ ÙÌ Ú Ûö Ø Ò Õ ÑÌ Õ Ó Ú ßà à àá â ãä å á æ â ç èä æë å ð â ê ä ð ã æë ì í â îï ð å ê â ñï òó É Ê ô Ý Ü Ü Ì Õ õ ÎÒ Ó Ô Ò Õ ÖÌ Ñ × Ø Õ ÙÌ Ú Ûö Ø Ò Õ ÑÌ Õ Ó Ú ßà à àá â ãä å á æ â ç èä æ ì ì ï âä ã í ÷ ì í â îï ð å ê â ñï òó É Ê ËØ ÕÒ Ó Ô Ò Õ ÖÌ Ñ × Ø Õ ÙÌ Ú Û Í Ì Ü Îø Ò Ð Ð Ø Ò Ó ßà à àá â ãä å á æ â ç è â ê â í ÷ ì í â îï ð å ê â ñï òó ù Ó Ý ú Ò Ó ô Ý Ü Ü Ì Õ õ ÎÒ Ó Ô Ò Õ ÖÌ Ñ Ô Ý Ð Î Ñ Ý Õ Ûö Ø Ò Õ ÑÌ Õ Ó Ú ßà à àá â ãä å á æ â ç è ç ÷ æ û í ÷ü â æü ï â ð ò ì æë ã ð æ âó Ë ý ô × þ ô Î ÿ Ý Õ ÑØ �Ø Ì Í Ì � Ý Ø Í Î Ð � Ô Ò Õ ÖÌ Ñ × Ø Õ ÙÌ Ú ÛÜ Ý Ð Ñ Þ Ó Ú ßà à àá â ãä å á æ â ç èü æ â ð ê ç ê ï å ï ì í â îï ð å ê â ñï òó � Ý Ð � Ê Ý Ð � ËÌ Í Î ÏÌ Ð Ñ ÎÒ Ó Ô Ò Õ ÖÌ Ñ ×Ø Õ ÙÌ Ú ÛÜ Ý Ð Ñ Þ Ó Ú ßé ð ðü � è è à à àá â ãä å á æ â ç è é æë ç� î æë ç � âï å ã � ï ë ð ã í ÷ � ì í â îï ð� å ê â ñï òó ô Ò Ð Ò Ï Ò ô Ý Ð Í Ñ ÕØ õ Ñ Î Ý Ð Ô Ò Õ ÖÌ Ñ × Ø Õ ÙÌ Ú Ûö Ø Ò Õ ÑÌ Õ Ó Ú ßà à àá â ãä å á æ â ç èä æë å ð â ê ä ð ã æë ì í â îï ð å ê â ñï òAdvertising & sponsorship opportunities� ��

Simon Rubinsohn, Chief Economist

[email protected] +44 (0)20 7334 3774

Jeff rey Matsu, Senior Economist

[email protected] +44 (0)20 76971644

Andy Wu, Senior Economist

[email protected], +852 (0)211 70697

Michael Hanley, Economist

[email protected], +44 (0)20 7695 1684

Tarrant Parsons, Economist

[email protected], + 44 (0)20 7695 1585

Janet Guilfoyle, Surveys Administrator

[email protected], +44 (0) 20 7334 3890



rics.org/economics

14

rics.org

United Kingdom RICS HQParliament Square, London SW1P 3AD

United Kingdom

t +44 (0)24 7686 8555

f +44 (0)20 7334 3811

[email protected]

Media enquiries pressoffi [email protected]

Ireland38 Merrion Square, Dublin 2,

Ireland

t +353 1 644 5500

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Europe(excluding UK and Ireland)

Rue Ducale 67,

1000 Brussels, Belgium

t +32 2 733 10 19

f +32 2 742 97 48

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Middle EastOffi ce G14, Block 3,

Knowledge Village,

Dubai, United Arab Emirates

t +971 4 446 2808

f +971 4 427 2498

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AfricaPO Box 3400, Witkoppen 2068,

South Africa

t +27 11 467 2857

f +27 86 514 0655

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AmericasOne Grand Central Place,

60 East 42nd Street, Suite 2810,

New York 10165 – 2811, USA

t +1 212 847 7400

f +1 212 847 7401

[email protected]

South AmericaRua Maranhão, 584 – cj 104,

São Paulo – SP, Brasil

t +55 11 2925 0068

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OceaniaSuite 1, Level 9,

1 Castlereagh Street,

Sydney NSW 2000. Australia

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North Asia3707 Hopewell Centre,

183 Queen’s Road East

Wanchai, Hong Kong

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ASEAN10 Anson Road,

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Singapore 079903

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JapanLevel 14 Hibiya Central Building,

1-2-9 Nishi Shimbashi Minato-Ku,

Tokyo 105-0003, Japan

t +81 3 5532 8813

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South Asia48 & 49 Centrum Plaza,

Sector Road, Sector 53,

Gurgaon – 122002, India

t +91 124 459 5400

f +91 124 459 5402

[email protected]

Confidence through professional standardsRICS promotes and enforces the highest professional qualifi cations and standards

in the development and management of land, real estate, construction and

infrastructure. Our name promises the consistent delivery of standards – bringing

confi dence to the markets we serve.

We accredit 118,000 professionals and any individual or fi rm registered with RICS is subject to our quality assurance. Their expertise covers property, asset valuation and real estate management; the costing and leadership of construction projects; the development of infrastructure; and the management of natural resources, such as mining, farms and woodland. From environmental assessments and building controls to negotiating land rights in an emerging economy; if our members are involved the same professional standards and ethics apply.

We believe that standards underpin eff ective markets. With up to seventy per cent of the world’s wealth bound up in land and real estate, our sector is vital to economic development, helping to support stable, sustainable investment and growth around the globe.

With offi ces covering the major political and fi nancial centres of the world, our market presence means we are ideally placed to infl uence policy and embed professional standards. We work at a cross-governmental level, delivering international standards that will support a safe and vibrant marketplace in land, real estate, construction and infrastructure, for the benefi t of all.

We are proud of our reputation and we guard it fi ercely, so clients who work with an RICS professional can have confi dence in the quality and ethics of the services they receive.

rics uk economy and property market chart book - december 2015

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