Richelle Winkler & Collin Payne

Wisconsin High School Graduate Projections

Presentation for the University of Wisconsin System

March 13, 2008

State of Wisconsin: High School Graduate History and Projections, 2001-2019

55,000

57,000

59,000

61,000

63,000

65,000

67,000

69,000

71,000

73,000

75,000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

How do APL projections compare to WICHE?

55,000

57,000

59,000

61,000

63,000

65,000

67,000

69,000

71,000

73,000

75,000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

WICHE 1996 WICHE 2003 APL 2000 APL 2008 Observed Graduates

Why are graduates projected to decline?

K-12 School Enrollment is declining.

Between 2001-2006, 69% of school districts declined.

Age structure of K-12 students is older.

Births in Wisconsin were low in 1990s and early 2000s.

Wisconsin’s K-12 School Enrollment, Fall 2006

71,298

71,713

70,332

70,020

69,878

70,902

71,582

73,922

75,447

81,588

78,559

79,630

76,258

40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 80,000 85,000

K

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Grad

e

Number of Students Enrolled

Births to Wisconsin Mothers, 1980-2011

60,000

62,000

64,000

66,000

68,000

70,000

72,000

74,000

76,000

78,000

Wisconsin Births by Race/Ethnicity, 1990-2006

50,000

52,000

54,000

56,000

58,000

60,000

62,000

64,000

66,000

68,000

70,000

72,000

74,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Non-Hispanic White Births Total Births

Wisconsin Workforce Development Areas

Projected % Change in Graduates by WDA, 2006-2012

WOW-4.5%

Western-10.5%

West Central-8.1%

Southeast1.8%

Southwest-5.0%

South Central-8.8%

Northwest-16.3%

North Central-10.0%

Milwaukee-4.6%

Fox Valley-3.6%

Bay Area-8.4%

-18%

-16%

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

Projected Change in High School Graduates

2006-2012

High School Graduate Projections by Sex, 2001-2019

28,000

29,000

30,000

31,000

32,000

33,000

34,000

35,000

36,000

37,000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Female Graduates Male Graduates

Public High School Graduate Projections by Race/Ethnicity

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

African American Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander American Indian

The proportion of graduates who are persons of color is increasing

4.0% 4.8% 6.4% 7.0% 6.7% 6.5%2.0% 2.6%3.9% 5.7% 8.4% 10.7%

91.0% 89.0%85.1% 82.3% 80.1% 77.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1991 2001 2006 2011 2016 2019

African American Hispanic Asian/PI AIAN NH White

Wisconsin Age Structure, 2006

-2.5% -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

Age

Non-Hispanic White Persons Persons of Color

Male Female

Wisconsin Age Structure by Race/Ethnicity

Public High School Graduation Rates by Race/Ethnicity

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Public Total African American Hispanic Asian/PI AIAN NH White

2002

2003

2004

Public High School Graduation Rates by Sex and Race/Ethnicity, 2003

66.3%

88.7%

73.2%

89.6%

39.0%

56.0%

81.7%

56.3%

82.8%

44.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

African American Hispanic Asian AIAN NH White

Female Male

Plans to Pursue a College Education by Race/Ethnicity

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

55.0%

60.0%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

African American Hispanic Asian/PI AIAN NH White

Plans to Pursue a College Education by WDA

South-east47%

Milwaukee47%

WOW64%

Fox Valley51%

Bay Area48%

North Central48%

Northwest42%

West Central45%Western

44%

South Central50%

Southwest47%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

55.0%

60.0%

65.0%

70.0%

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000Average number planning to attend college

Ave

rage

% p

lann

ing

to a

tten

d co

llege

Summary Points

Peak numbers 2008, then projected decline Similar trends for males and females overall Similar for different race/ethnic groups, except

Hispanics who will see substantial increase Changing race/ethnic make-up of population under

18 will likely introduce new challenges and opportunities

Wisconsin’s Public School Enrollment: Past, Present, Future