richard perez | practical solar analysis

Richard PerezU. Albany, ASRC

NOT ENOUGH SUN,

NOT ENOUGH SPACE

NOT ENOUGH SUN,

NOT ENOUGH SPACE

Richard Perez, et al.

Each square foot in New York can generate 20 kWh of photovoltaic electricity per year


Photograph courtesy of AltPower, Inc.

120 billion kWh / year

More than twiceCONED’s sales

73 million metric tonsCO2

(13 million cars)

© Richard Perez

Only 0.75% of New York’s area* would be needed to produce all the electricity used in the State

*using 10% PV conversion

Buildings, parking lots and roadways cover almost 3% of New York’s area © Richard Perez


10 kW9 MW9 MW

All US electrical energy 25,000 km2 PV 0.32% US Land Area

© Richard Perez

Hydropower artificial lakes > 100,000 km2

7%US electricity

© Richard Perez

All World electrical energy from solar:0.07% World Land Area

© Richard Perez

World energy use16 TW-yr per year

~ 475 exajoules~ 460 Quads

World energy use16 TW-yr per year

~ 475 exajoules~ 460 Quads16

© R. Perez et al.

2 – 6 per year2 – 6 per year

COAL 1,8

Uranium 1,9

900Total reserve

900Total reserve

90-300Total

90-300Total

Petroleum 1,8

240total

240total

Natural Gas 1,8

215total

215total

WIND1,2

Waves11,3

0.2-2

25-70per year

25-70per year

OTEC1,4

Biomass 1,5

3 -11 per year3 -11 per year

HYDRO 1,6


TIDES 1Geothermal1,70.3 – 2 per year0.3 – 2 per year

© R. Perez et al.

0.3 per year0.3 per year

16

FINITE ENERGYRESERVES

RENEWABLES

ANWR

2 – 6 per year2 – 6 per yearWorld energy use16 TW-yr per year

COAL 1,8

Uranium 1,9

900Total reserve

900Total reserve

90-300Total

90-300Total

Petroleum 1,8

240total

240total

Natural Gas 1,8

215total

215total

WIND1,2

Waves11,3

0.2-2

25-70per year

25-70per year

OTEC1,4

Biomass 1,5

3 -11 per year3 -11 per year

HYDRO 1,6


TIDES 1

SOLAR10

23,000 per year

Geothermal1,70.3 – 2 per year0.3 – 2 per year

© R. Perez et al.

0.3 per year0.3 per year

ANWR

ENOUGH SUN &

ENOUGH SPACE

NO RELIABILITYENOUGH SUN &

ENOUGH SPACE

NO RELIABILITY


SOLAR ENERGY IS RELIABLE IN NEW YORK

Power flow


8760 hours

Load Duration Curve

© Richard Perez et al.

ELECTRICAL DEMAND THROUGHOUT ONE YEAR

8760 hours


ELECTRICAL DEMAND THROUGHOUT ONE YEAR

NO PV

PV at 10% Peak penetration 8760 hours

NO PV


NO PV

PV at 10% Peak penetration

8760 hours

PV IMPACT AT 10% CAPCITY PENETRATION

Displacing highest stress


NO PV

PV at 10% Peak penetration

8760 hours

Displacing highest stress


Minimal Load Management or Storage

A/C electrical demand peak

Heat wave


SOLAR ENERGY IS RELIABLE IN NEW YORK

A/C electrical demand peak

Heat wave


NO PV


Site-time specific PV output information

Typical (TMY) data not suitable


DAYLIGHT

MODELS

TILTED IRRADIANCE

Luminous efficacy

Vertical Diffuse Illuminances

-80

-60

-40

-20

020

4060

80

-80

-60

-40

-200

20406080

Cle

ar lo

w s

un b

lue

scal

e

Sky luminance Angular Distribution

DAYLIGHT

MODELS

TILTED IRRADIANCE

Luminous efficacy


-80

-60

-40

-20

020

4060

80

-80

-60

-40

-200

20406080

Cle

ar lo

w s

un b

lue

scal

e


© R. Perez et al

Modeled Irradiance

SATELLITE-DERIVED SOLAR RESOURCE

DAYLIGHT

MODELS

TILTED IRRADIANCE

Luminous efficacy


-80

-60

-40

-20

020

4060

80

-80

-60

-40

-200

20406080

Cle

ar lo

w s

un b

lue

scal

e


DAYLIGHT

MODELS

TILTED IRRADIANCE

Luminous efficacy


-80

-60

-40

-20

020

4060

80

-80

-60

-40

-200

20406080

Cle

ar lo

w s

un b

lue

scal

e


© R. Perez et al

Modeled Irradiance

1998 – 2006NSRDB NREL1998 – 2006NSRDB NREL

2007 – Real TimeClean Power ResearchSolarAnywhere R

2007 – Real TimeClean Power ResearchSolarAnywhere R

1-hour to 7-Day Forecasts

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

11500

12000

Lo

ad

(M

W)

NYC LOAD

NYC LOAD with 1000 MW PV

Summer 2006 peak demand day New York City


Commonwealth Edison Minnesota Power and Light Indianapolis Power & Light First Energy Wisconsin Public Service Corp Central Illinois Light Co Wisconsin Electric Power Co Northern States Power Ameren Illinois Power Company

Tennessee Valley Authority City of Chattanooga

Lincoln Electric System Colorado Public Service Co Omaha Public Power District

Jacksonville Electric Authority Tampa Electric Florida Power and Light

HAWAIIAN ELECTRIC

Black Hills Corporation Idaho Power Company

Central Maine Power Consolidated Edison Orange and Rockland Cambridge Electric Light Co Boston Edison United Illuminating Co Rochester Gas & Electric

Seattle Dept. of LightingBonneville Power Administration

Portland General

Golden Spread Electric Coop City of Austin

Tucson Electric Salt River Project

Arizona Public Service SMUD

S.Diego Gas & Electric Co Pacific Gas & Electric

Nevada Power

© Richard Perez et al., ASRC

source: RReDC

Effective View

Traditional View

ENERGY

CAPACITY

Highest CapacityIdeally Dispatchable Power Plant

Lowest Capacity Random Energy output Power Plant


0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Seattle Dept. of Lighting

Bonneville Power Administration

Minnesota Power and Light

Portland General

Tennesee Valley Authority

Jacksonville Electric Authority

Central Maine Power

Hawaiian Electric

Commonwealth Edison

Tampa Electric

Indianapolis Power & Light

City of Chattanooga

Florida Power and Light

First Energy

Consolidated Edison

Wisconsin Public Service Corp

Black Hills Corporation

Central Illinois Light Co

Orange and Rockland

Wisconsin Electric Power Co

Northern States Power

Cambridge Electric Light Co

Boston Edison

Ameren

Tucson Electric

United Illuminating Co

Illinois Power Company

Lincoln Electric System

Salt River Project

Colorado Public Service Co

Golden Spread Electric Coop

Arizona Public Service

Omaha Public Power District

Rochester Gas & Electric

SMUD

S.Diego Gas & Electric Co

Pacific Gas & Electric

Nevada Power

Idaho Power Company

2-axis-tracking reference ELCC

2002-03experimentalvalues .1991-estimates

EFFECTIVE CAPACITY

1991-2003 tendencies

© Richard Perez et al., ASRC

2000-2005 Anomaly

2000-2005 Anomaly

Northeast US – AUG 14th, 2003

Perez et al., ASRC

Detroit

Cleveland

Toronto

NYC

Boston


Detroit

Cleveland

Toronto

NYC

Boston

Northeast Electrical Island Boundary

Sub-Island with enough generation to meet demand

Sub-Islands with insufficient generation to meet demand X


NYC $1 Billion(Reuters)

$1.1 Billion(The Guardian)

US-Can $6.8 - $10.3 B(ICF Consulting)

Perez et al., ASRC

Perez et al., ASRC

20:00 GMT20:00 GMT19:00 GMT19:00 GMT

18:00 GMT18:00 GMT17:00 GMT17:00 GMT

As little as 500 MW of PV dispersed around the major northeastern cities would have prevented the blackout

An investment of $ 3 billion

Outage cost $ 8 billion


SHORT-TERM VARIABILITY IMPLICATIONS FOR THE POWER GRID

© Richard Perez, et al.\

Very High Penetration Storage & Load Management

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Net L

oad

(MW

)

Solar Generation Peaking storage utilization

Normal storage or variable gen Excess solar to storage

Base Load

16000

12000

8000

4000

0

-4000


ENOUGH SUN &

ENOUGH SPACE

RELIABLE PEAKER

TOO EXPENSIVE…..ENOUGH SUN &

ENOUGH SPACE

RELIABLE PEAKER

TOO EXPENSIVE…..



TOO

EXPENSIVE

What is the value of PV for New York?System Owners Utility Constituents

Equipment cost

Incentives benefit cost

Utility Bill benefit cost

Tax Effects benefit cost

Utility Cost Savings benefit

Constituent Benefits benefit

Net Benefit ??? ??? ???

Value to

© Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff


Equipment cost









Equipment cost






Net Benefit ??? ??? ???Energy Production ValueGeneration Capacity ValueT&D capacity deferral valueLoss savingsEnvironmental compliance value Fuel price hedge protection © Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff

System Owners Utility Constituents

Equipment cost






Net Benefit ??? ??? ???Energy Production ValueGeneration Capacity ValueT&D capacity deferral valueLoss savingsEnvironmental compliance value Fuel price hedge protection

Energy Production ValueGeneration Capacity ValueT&D capacity deferral valueLoss savingsEnvironmental compliance value Fuel price hedge protection

Long-term, system-wide rate protection Environmental health benefits Business development opportunities (job and business creation) Use of in-state resource and reduction of state importsPower grid security enhancement Disaster recovery


INITIAL EVALUATION© Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff

LONGISLAND

WEST

CAPITAL

INITIAL EVALUATION

3 CASE STUDIES


Energy Production ValueGeneration Capacity ValueT&D capacity deferral valueLoss savingsEnvironmental compliance value Fuel price hedge protection © Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff

ENERGY PRODUCTION VALUE

LONGISLAND

WEST

CAPITAL

LBMPLocation Based Marginal Pricing

ALL YEAR PV Geometry AVERAGE

Location Southest 30o Tilt PRICELong Island 109$ 93$ Capital 78$ 73$ West 62$ 55$ SUMMER PV Geometry AVERAGE

Location Southest 30o Tilt PRICELong Island 123$ 91$ Capital 81$ 69$ West 73$ 60$

PV Value / MWh


LONGISLAND

WEST

CAPITAL

CONGESTIONPenalty

PV Value / MWhALL YEAR PV Geometry AVERAGE

Location Southest 30o Tilt PRICELong Island (34)$ (24)$ Capital (7)$ (8)$ West (2)$ (2)$ SUMMER PV Geometry AVERAGE

Location Southest 30o Tilt PRICELong Island (39)$ (19)$ Capital (2)$ (1)$ West -$ -$

ENERGY PRODUCTION VALUE


LONGISLAND

WEST

CAPITAL

GENERATION CAPACITY VALUE


LONGISLAND

WEST

CAPITAL

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Grid Penetration

Ca

pa

cit

y C

red

itCapacity Credit L.Island

Capacity Factor L.Island

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Grid Penetration

Ca

pa

cit

y C

red

it

Capacity Credit L.Island

Capacity Credit Capital

Capacity Factor L.Island

Capacity Factor Capital

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Grid Penetration

Ca

pa

cit

y C

red

it

Capacity Credit WestCapacity Credit L.IslandCapacity Credit CapitalCapacity Factor WestCapacity Factor L.IslandCapacity Factor Capital

ELCC-SLC COMPOSITE CAPACITY CREDIT



Unlike energy, is not a directly traded commodity

But it can be estimated:

• NYISO DR programs provide up to $100 per kW per year for stand-by customer-sited capacity that may, or may not be called upon.

• Demand-based tariffs e.g., $180/kW per year upstate (National Grid) and $250/kW per year downstate (ConEdison).



Unlike energy, not a directly traded commodity

But it can be estimated:

• NYISO DR programs provide up to $100 per kW per year for stand-by customer-sited capacity that may, or may not be called upon.

• Demand-based tarrifs e.g., $180/kW per year upstate (National Grid) and $250/kW per year downstate (ConEdison).

X

4.5 ¢ per kWh Displaced capacity

ALL YEAR PV Geometry AVERAGE

Location Southest 30o Tilt PRICELong Island 109$ 93$ Capital 78$ 73$ West 62$ 55$ SUMMER PV Geometry AVERAGE

Location Southest 30o Tilt PRICELong Island 123$ 91$ Capital 81$ 69$ West 73$ 60$

10.9 ¢ per kWh Displaced energy

15.4 ¢ per kWh value of net metered systems in L.I.

+

Net-metered retail rate in L. I. 20 ¢ per kWh




15.4 ¢ per kWh Value to utility

Net-metered retail rate in L. I. 20 ¢ per kWh

77%

Cost to utility

Value to Cost Ratio

77%

Very likely that utilityVALUE TO COST RATIO

>>100%




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