Richard DaviesDirector

NI 186 Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Reduction: The New Carbon Challenge

Never before have our emerging environmental crises been laid out so clearly before us. Rather than shouting from the fringes, respected

economists, scientists, and politicians are sounding the warnings in high-profile journals and the halls of government – warnings that our

oceans are dying, that the ice shelves are melting, and that we are setting ourselves up for the most massive and devastating market

failure humanity has ever seen.

So we recycle. We vote greener. We buy sleek new hybrid cars and fill our houses with energy efficient light bulbs. And we put our money and

faith in the brave and ingenious technologies that will rescue us from the whirlwind.

But it won’t be enough.

Because this is not, fundamentally a technological problem. Nor is it, fundamentally, a political problem. This is a problem of appetites, and

of self deceit. The planet is breaking, and it is breaking under the weight of our hunger for more.

To reform the world, we must first reform ourselves.

Tom Green, Ecological Economist

Good Morning!

’We see nothing truly

till we understand it’

John Constable 1836

Jeroen van der Veer, CEO Shell28th January 2008

"Regardless of which route we choose, the world's

current predicament limits our maneuvering

room. We are experiencing a

step-change in the growth rate of energy demand

due to population growth and economic

development, and Shell estimates that after 2015 supplies of easy-to-access oil

and gas will nolonger keep

up with demand."

√

Solihull – How big are your feet?• Total Emissions 2005 (tonnes CO2)

– Industry & Commercial

– Domestic

– Road Transport

– TOTAL

• Solihull per capita emissions (pop. 199,517): 9.7 tonnes

• Average UK Emissions: 7.9 tonnes• Worse than average?• Why?

731,000

512,000

684,000

1,927,000

Local AuthorityIndustry & Commerce

Domestic Transport

Solihull 3.6 2.6 3.4

South Shropshire 2.6 2.7 4.7

Woking 2.6 2.5 1.6

Source: DEFRA/AEA Technology. Local & Regional estimates by end user, summary 2005.

Tonnes of carbon dioxide per capita

√√

Reduction Curve?

Low hanging fruit Political space Fair share

Future Techno Collapse Oops! Too much shopping…..

100%

40%

20%

~0%

Low Hanging Fruit? 2, 4 or 6%

1990 2050

Solihull’s first year target

• To reduce CO2 emissions by 2% per annum

= 38,540 t CO2

Estimated savings for Solihull??

Year 2010 2020

Business savings 4% 7%

Road Transport savings (all measures) 4% 5%

Domestic savings (all measures) 4% 9%

Savings in 2010 from all measures 12% 22%

National measures 7% 9%

National measures with LA influence 4% 11%

Local measures 1% 1%

Uncertainty range +/-% for all measures

2% 3%

√√√

Which might be the most effective measures in Solihull?

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Big Wind

• One 2 MW wind turbine installed in a decent site for wind speed…….

– 2,000 kW x 8,760 hours/year x 0.00043 tonnes CO2/kWh x 0.3 load factor =

2,260 tonnes CO2/year

17!

Small Wind

• One 6 kW wind turbine installed on a 9m mast…….

– 6 kW x 8,760 hours/year x 0.00043 tonnes CO2/kWh x 0.22 load factor =

5 tonnes CO2/year

7,708 turbines

• 1 in every 10 of houses with a 6kW wind turbine…….!

Solar Hot Water Heating

• A domestic scale solar hot water heating (SHWH) system will save around 1,400 kWh of water heating fuel per year. Let’s assume that this is mains gas…….

– 1,400 kWh x 0.00019 tonnes CO2/kWh =

0.27 tonnes CO2/year

143,000! (only 80,930 houses)

Photovoltaics

• A domestic scale (1kWp) photovoltaic system will generate around 750 kWh of electricity per year.

– 750 kWh x 0.00043 tonnes CO2/kWh =

0.32 tonnes CO2/year

Help: Not all homes are suitable for PV. Assume that 33% of homes in Mansfield can be fitted with PV

120,000! (still only 80,930 houses)

Cavity Wall Insulation

• Cavity Wall insulation saves (average) 0.634 tonnes CO2 / year (Ref: CERT)

• 39.1% of UK homes have an unfilled cavity (Ref: Shorrocks & Utley 2004)

61,000! (only c. 15,000 unfilled in

Solihull)

Domestic Lighting• The average UK home has 25 lights

fittings (Market Transformation Programme (MTP) 2005)

• Assume that this means 25 light bulbs

• The average UK home has 3 low energy bulbs (MTP 2005)

• One low energy bulb will save 0.0081 tonnes CO2/annum

216,000 homes worth!

Loft Insulation

• Loft top-up saves (average) 0.313 tonnes CO2 / year (Ref: CERT)

• 43% of accessible lofts have less than 100mm of insulation (Shorrocks & Utley 2004)

123,000! (only c. 16,600 sub-standard

lofts in Solihull)

√√√√

Our target

To reduce CO2 emissions in three communities in Shropshire by 5.88% by April 2009

3,820 t CO2

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Total Annual CO2 Savings

“Make no little plans. They have no magic to stir men's blood... Make big plans; aim high in hope and work.” Daniel Hudson Burnham 1846-1912

“Search all the parks in all your cities; you'll find no statues of committees.” David Ogilvy 1911-1999

‘If future generations are to remember us more with gratitude than contempt, we must leave them more than the miracles of technology. We must leave them a glimpse of the world as it was in the beginning, not just after we got through with it.’

Lyndon B. Johnson

Don’t just stand there, do something!

thank you