Global Forest Carbon Monitoring: Opportunities to Apply the NACP Multi-tier Approach to UNFCCC Reporting and

REDD Requirements Richard Birdsey, Yude Pan, Werner Kurz,

Craig Wayson, Gregorio Angeles-Perez

Includes contributions from Ben DeJong, Jing Chen, and Fangmin Zhang

North American Carbon Program

All-Investigator MeetingNew Orleans, Louisiana

3 February, 2011

Overview

• NACP multi-tier land monitoring approach• UNFCCC GHG inventory reporting by Canada,

U.S., and Mexico• REDD requirements, data needs, and

approaches• What next for NACP multi-tier approach?

NACP Hierarchical Land Surface Measurement Program (from NACP Science Plan)

• Tier One – Remote Sensing and Mapping Wall-to-wall coverage; stratification Temporal resolution = high or low

• Tier Two – Extensive Inventories and Surveys Representative regional statistical sample Temporal resolution = low

• Tier Three – Condition Sample (new) Representative of specified condition classes Temporal resolution = medium

• Tier Four –Intensive Areas Relatively small number of specific sites Temporal resolution = high

Multi-tier Sampling, Past and Present

Graphic from Steve Running circa 2001

The “Multi-tier” Inventory Approach: Extensive Observations Linked to Intensive Studies

• Remote sensing and mapping (T1)

• Network of national inventory sample plots (T2)

• Intensive measurement sites (T3 and T4)

All tied together with ecosystem and accounting models

Graphic from Warren Cohen (maybe)

Selected Land Variables and Measurement Methods

VariableRemote Sensing

(T1)

Land Inventory

(T2)

Intensive Sites

(T3 & T4)

Land cover X X XLeaf area X X XDisturbance X X XLive biomass X XStand structure X XSpecies composition X XGrowth, removals, mortality X XLitter fall XSoil CO2 flux X

Runoff XDissolved Organic C XNet Ecosystem Exchange of CO2 X

UNFCCC Reporting

• Canada, the U.S.A., and Mexico all report greenhouse gas inventories following standard IPCC methodologies and reporting requirements (Mexico reports are voluntary).

• Despite rather different national circumstances, reported estimates are reasonably consistent.

• The 3 countries collaborate on methods development and application, share data to improve estimates, and produce joint reports (e.g., SOCCR).

Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3)

• An operational-scale model of stand and landscape-level forest C dynamics.

• Allows forest managers to assess carbon implications of forest management: increase sinks, reduce sources

• Used at National scale for reporting to UNFCCC

• Freely available at: carbon.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca

Kurz et al. 2009, Ecol. Modelling

Carbon Budget Model of Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3)

Land-use change data

Forest inventory and growth & yield data

Natural disturbance monitoring data

Forest management activity data

Ecological modelling parameters

CBM-CFS3Kurz et al. 2009, Ecol. Modelling

CBM-CFS3 General Approach and ResultsStratification of forest into classes Relies heavily on existing forest inventory information

Input data from forest inventories (or remote sensing)Empirical representation of growth dynamics at the stand level.

Dead Organic Matter Dynamics linked to BiomassProcess modelling of litterfall, mortality, disturbance impacts and

decomposition to estimate DOM poolsSimulates natural disturbances, forest management and land-use

changeInput data from forest monitoring including remote sensing

-150-100-50

050

100150200250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Mt C

O2e

/ yr

0.00.30.60.91.21.51.82.12.4

Area

Bur

ned

(Mha

)

Increasing impact of insects in recent years

Stinson et al. 2011

Forest Inventory Approach, Basis for GHG Reporting (USA)

Tier 2 – Field inventory

State of Minnesota

Condition B = Nonforest Land Use

Condition A =Forest Land Use

Old 1/5-acre plot

FIA Sample Plot

Tiers 3/4 – subsample of Tier 2 plus intensive site data

Tier I – Remote sensing to stratify area

Some Results from USA’s Forest

Greenhouse Gas Inventory

Future USA GHG Inventory: High-resolution Estimates with Full Attribution to Causes

NACP research applied to partition effects of:• Climate variability• Atmospheric chemistry• Natural disturbances• Human actions

1930 2000Pan et al. 2009Zhang et al. submitted

Effects of climate variability, fire suppression, and natural disturbance

Cumulative NEP

Evolving Methods for Mexico’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory of Forests

• The first two inventories used IPCC default emission factors and FAO area statistics

• The third inventory in 2006 was based on national inventory data and some default emission factors

• The fourth inventory in 2009 was based on the new national inventory, land-cover change maps, and some country specific emission factors

• Future inventories will include all C pools and analysis using CBM-CFS3

Adapted from Ben de Jong

Mexico’s Land Inventory

Variable-density field sampling repeated every 5 years

Mexico’s GHG Emissions (2006)

16.3%

SEMARNAT-INE (2009)

LULUCF

Tropical Forests, the Global Carbon Cycle, and REDD+Tropical forests are the most dynamic

terrestrial component of the global carbon budget (Global Carbon Project; FAO 2010; Pan et al. submitted)

– 55% of total global forest carbon stock– 13% of total global CO2 emissions (net emissions

from LUC)– 68% of total global forest CO2 removal from

atmosphere (gross C uptake)

Tropical Forests, the Global Carbon Cycle, and REDD+Tropical forests are the most dynamic

terrestrial component of the global carbon budget (Global Carbon Project; FAO 2010; Pan et al. submitted)

– 55% of total global forest carbon stock– 13% of total global CO2 emissions (net emissions

from LUC)– 68% of total global forest CO2 removal from

atmosphere (gross C uptake)Data needs

Moderate Very large Huge!

REDD+ Monitoring and Modeling Requirements• REDD+ includes:

– Reducing deforestation and forest degradation– Conservation of forest C stocks– Sustainable forest management/enhancement of C stocks

• Many existing guidelines, for example:– IPCC “Good Practice Guidance” and special reports– GEO, GOFC-GOLD, FAO REDD Programme

• Flexibility needed to allow broad participation, but results must be consistent

• Credible baseline projections needed to establish additionality:

Example: reference level = historical baseline (From FAO Little REDD book)

Monitoring Modeling

Examples of NACP/CarboNA Technical Support for REDD+ and Tropical Forest Monitoring

• Canada: working with Mexico and other tropical countries to implement the CBM-CFS3 approach

• U.S.A.: working with Mexico and other countries in forest inventory, remote sensing, and intensive-site measurements

• Mexico: demonstrator country under GEO-FCT and leading example of implementing monitoring for REDD

U.S. and Mexico Conducting Pilot Study for American Network of

Intensive Sites

Tropical site t.b.d.

Measurements at Intensive Monitoring Sites (Tiers 3 and 4)

• Biometrics – measurements of C pools• Eddy flux towers – monitoring of C

exchange between land and atmosphere• Remote sensing – vegetation density and

change

Conclusions and Recommendations

• “Best” approach to GHG inventory depends on individual country circumstances and specific reporting and accounting requirements

• Different monitoring approaches may yield similar results – combinations are often more efficient

• REDD+ is here NOW – countries must demonstrate readiness

• Financing and improved technical capacity needed by most tropical countries

• The NACP and CarboNA could do much more to improve analysis and reporting in all 3 countries and elsewhere

Thanks!