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(As on 30.12.2014) Commodity Profile for Rice-December 2014

Contents 1. Rice Estimates for India ..................................................................................................................................... 2 2. Rice Estimates for World ................................................................................................................................... 2 3. India’s Rice Production and Area under Cultivation .............................................................................. 3 4. Global Production ................................................................................................................................................. 4 5. Major Exporting and Importing Countries of Rice in the world ........................................................ 4 6. India’s Major Export Destinations for Basmati as well as Non-basmati Rice .............................. 5 7. India’s Trade Flow for Rice during 2009-10 10 and 2014-15 ............................................................ 6 8. Domestic and International Price Movement for Long White Rice 25% Broken ....................... 7 9. Minimum Support Price (MSP) for Rice during 2010-11 to 2014-15 ............................................. 7 10.1 Rice Arrivals in Major Domestic Mundis ................................................................................................ 7 10.2 Price Movement for Rice in Major Domestic Mundis ........................................................................ 8 11. Future Prices of Rice ....................................................................................................................................... 8 12. Trade Policy ........................................................................................................................................................ 9 12.1 Export Policy ................................................................................................................................................. 9 12.2 Import Policy ................................................................................................................................................. 9  

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1. Rice Estimates for India (Crop Year: October 2014- September 2015) (Unit: Million Tonnes)

Table-1: Rice Production, Trade and Availability

2013-14 2014-15 (Estimated) Particular October 2014

Source

19.03 26.78 # Opening Stock 15.42 DoF & PD

106.54 104.92 Production 88.02** D&ES 0 0.00 Total Imports 0.00 DoC 125.57 131.70 Availability 103.46 10.14 10.10 Total Export 1.12* DoC

18.34 24.50 € Ending Stock in Central Pool 13.61*** DoF & PD

97.09 97.10 Total Available for domestic consumption 89.85

Source: Department of Food & Public Distribution (DoF&PD), Department of Commerce (DoC), Directorate of Economics & Statistics (D&ES), Department of Agriculture & Cooperation (DAC). *: The figure of export and import is for October, 2014 **: 1st Advance estimates released on 19.09.2014 for kharif rice crop. ***: FCI stocks ending in October, 2014 are 13.61 million MT against 16.85 Million Tonnes in corresponding period #: estimates in the beginning of the year. €: estimates at the end of the year. Availability: opening stock in central pool plus production plus Imports; Total Availability for Domestic Consumption: Availability minus (total export plus ending stock in central pool). For preparing estimate for 2013-14, production has been taken as last three years’ average; imports as three years’ average, export as two years average; ending stock as estimated by Department of Food and Public Distribution.

2. Rice Estimates for World

(Unit: Million Tonnes)

Source: International Grains Council (IGC)

• During 2012-13 and 2013-14, the world production has increased by 1% (from 472 Million Tonnes to 476 Million Tonnes), trade by 8% (from 38 million MT to 41 million MT) and consumption by 3% (from 469 million MT to 481 million MT).

Table-2: Production, Trade, Consumption and Stock of Rice Particulars 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15(Estimated) Production 472 476 475 Trade 38 41 41 Consumption 469 481 482 Carry Over Stock 110 103 102

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3. India’s Rice Production and Area under Cultivation

Source: Directorate of Economics & Statistics (D&ES)

• India’s rice production has increased at CAGR of 3.32 percent during 2002-03 and 2013-14.

• Area under rice cultivation has not increased substantially during 2002-03 and 2013-14.

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4. Global Production

Source: United State Department of Agriculture

• China is the leading rice producer followed by India, Indonesia and Bangladesh.

5. Major Exporting and Importing Countries of Rice in the world

                         

Source: United State Department of Agriculture

• India was the largest exporter of Rice in 2013-14 followed by Thailand, Vietnam and USA.

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Source: United State Department of Agriculture • China was the leading importer in 2013-14 followed by Nigeria and Iran.

6. India’s Major Export Destinations for Basmati as well as Non-basmati Rice

Source: Department of Commerce

• Iran is the leading importing country for Basmati rice from India followed by Saudi Arab and Iraq.

• Unit cost of basmati rice has increased for all countries in 2013-14 over the previous year. • Highest increase in unit price recorded for Saudi Arab and Jordan

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Source: Department of Commerce

• In 2013-14, Benin, Senegal and Bangladesh are amongst India’s top three importing countries for non-basmati.

• In 2013-14 Bangladesh imports substantially from India. It may be due to decrease in the unit price to Rs. 23 thousand per Tonnes from Rs.27 thousand per Tonnes. For Senegal, increase in unit price is minimum whereas highest for Liberia and Guinea

7. India’s Trade Flow for Rice during 2009-10 to 2014-15

(Unit: Million Tonnes) Table 3: India’s Trade Flow for Rice

Year Export Import

Basmati Non-basmati Basmati Non-basmati 2009-10 2.02 0.14 0 0 2010-11 2.37 0.10 0 0 2011-12 3.18 4.0 0 0 2012-13 3.50 6.64 0 0 2013-14 3.76 7.0 0 0 2014-15 (Apr-Oct,14) 1.94 4.67 0 0

Source: Department of Commerce

• India exported substantial quantity of both Basmati as well as Non-basmati rice to the world, and import in the same categories were nil during 2009-10 and 2014-15.

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8. Domestic and International Price Movement for Long White Rice 25% Broken

Source: Oryza (A website on rice)

• Price of Indian long white rice (25% Broken) was lower than that of Vietnam and Thailand’s prices during February to July, 2014, and beyond July 2014 India’s price is lower in comparison to their price.

9. Minimum Support Price (MSP) for Rice during 2010-11 to 2014-15

(Unit: Rs/ Quintal) Table 4: MSP for Rice

Rice Quality 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Common 1000 1080 1250 1310 1360 Grade ‘A’ 1030 1110 1280 1345 1400

Source: Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP)

• MSP for both quality of rice (see table 4) has increased during 2010-11 and 2014-15. This figure has increased by 36 percent in the last 5 years.

10.1 Rice Arrivals in Major Domestic Mundis

(Unit: Tonnes) Table 5: Rice Arrivals in Major Domestic Mundis

Markets Arrival Nov, 2014 ( cumulative)

Arrival Oct, 2014 (cumulative )

Arrival Nov, 2013 (cumulative)

% Change(Over Previous Month)

% Change(Over Previous year)

Burdwan 25904 20621 18658 26 39 Midnapore NA NA NA NA NA

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Banaganapalli 4814 1516 2751 218 75 Ramachandrapuram 2047 507 3867 304 -47 Devariya 4858 1815 6107 168 -20 Sitapur 42400 11824 36985 259 15 Mysore 4905 814 4348 503 13 Raichur 43281 18809 58600 130 -68 Villupuram 4177 47744 4090 -91 1067 Thiruchirappalli 38538 33367 NA 15 NA

Source: Agmarknet

• The cumulative figure for rice arrival in major Mundis shows that Raichur Mundi was leading in November 2013 as well as 2014.

10.2 Price Movement for Rice in Major Domestic Mundis

( Unit: Rs/ Quintal) Table 6: Price Movement for Rice in Major Domestic Mundis

Mundis Prices Nov- 2014

Prices Oct, 2014

Prices Nov, 2013

% Change(Over Previous Month)

% Change(Over Previous year)

Burdwan 2394 2416 2499 -1 -4 Midnapore 2592 2653 2770 -2 -6 Banaganapalli 2020 1785 1988 13 2 Ramachandrapuram 3450 3600 3368 -4 2 Devariya 2106 2096 1903 0 11 Sitapur 2103 2040 1982 3 6 Mysore 1902 2069 2122 -8 -10 Raichur 1751 1554 1778 13 -2 Villupuram 2021 1812 NA 12 NA Thiruchirappalli 2024 1952 NA 4 NA

Source: Agmarknet

11. Future Prices of Rice

(Unit: US$ /Tonnes) Table 5: Future Price for Rice

Contract As on 11.12.2014 (Current)

A Week ago (05.12.14)

A Month ago(11 Nov)

3 Month ago (11 Sept)

6 Month ago (11 July)

% Change over the previous 6 Month (Current Viz-a-viz July 14)

Jan- 2015 270.28 265.87 256.17 276.02 319.67 -15.45 March- 2015 275.80 271.61 261.25 280.43 300.93 -8.35 May-2015 281.31 277.12 267.20 284.61 293.65 -4.20 July-2015 285.72 281.53 272.93 281.75 296.30 -3.57

Source: Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)

• Future price for rice will decrease with respect to the price of July 2014 (see Table 5).

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12. Trade Policy

12.1 ExportPolicy: Export of rice is free, subject to condition circulated by DGFT.

12.2 ImportPolicy: Import of seeds is restricted. Whereas, import of rice for human consumption is permitted through State Trading Enterprises

Table 6: Import Duty

Exim Code Item Description Policy Bound Duty

Standard Duty

Applied Duty

1006 10 10 Of Seed Quality Restricted 80 80 80

1006 10 90 Other Import

allowed

through FCI

80 80 80

1006 20 00 Husked (brown) Rice 80 80 80

1006 30 10 Rice, parboiled 70 70 70

1006 30 20 Basmati rice 70 70 70

1006 30 90 Other 70 70 70

1006 40 00 Broken rice 80 80 80

Source: Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT), Department of Revenue and World Trade Organisation (WTO)

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