rice trade and the free trade area of americas agreement eric wailes, frank fuller, harry djunaidi,...
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Rice Trade and the Free Trade Area of Americas Agreement
Eric Wailes, Frank Fuller,
Harry Djunaidi, and Alvaro Durand
University of Arkansas
Objective
• Assess the potential impact of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) agreement on rice trade.– Review aspects of U.S. rice exports– Western Hemisphere trade– Modeling framework– Results
U.S. Rice Export Share
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
Share of U.S.Rice Exports to Western Hemisphere
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
Pe
rce
nt
U.S. rice exports by type
0500
1000150020002500300035004000
Tho
us. M
T
Rough Brown Milled
U.S. and Other Western Hemisphere Exports
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
Th
ou
sa
nd
Me
tric
To
ns
U.S.
Other Western Hemisphere
Western Hemisphere Rice Imports
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Th
ou
sa
nd
Me
tric
To
ns
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Pe
rce
nt
of
Wo
rld
Imp
ort
s
Volume
Global share
Average Imports tariffs for rice by degree of processing in the
Western Hemisphere
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
Milled Brown Paddy
Rice Import Tariffs for selected countries
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Mexico Costa Rica Brazil Colombia
Milled
Brown
Rough
Regional trade agreements in the Western Hemisphere
• NAFTA• Canada, Mexico, and United States
• To phase out rice tariffs by 2003
• MERCOSUR• Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay
• Common external rice tariffs
• CACM• Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and
Nicaragua
• Attempt to reconcile common external tariffs
Regional trade agreements in the Western Hemisphere
• CARICOM• Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Bahamas, Belize,
Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, Monserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, Suriname, St. Vincent, Trinidad and Tobago
• Most apply a common external tariff• Guyana is the dominant export supplier to this group
• Andean Pact• Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela• Most maintain a common external tariff
Free trade agreement of the Americas
• Summit of the Americas• Miami, FL 1994
• Agreed to negotiate removal of barriers– Trade– Investment
• Attempt to complete agreement by 2005
Assess the potential impact for rice trade?
• Spatial equilibrium model– disaggregate by degree of processing
• milled, brown and rough
– disaggregate into 82 regions/countries, especially Western Hemisphere
– express current trade barriers and removal to FTAA members
Model structure
• Quasi-welfare objective function– maximize exporter and importer welfare
surpluses– subject to linear arbitrage conditions
Model parameters
• Derive excess supply and excess demand equations based on:– elasticities– base year (1999) trade and prices– base year trade policies (tariffs)
• Transportation cost matrix from all exporters to all importers
Results: FTAA impact on global trade
Rice type Base FTAA Difference
Milled (tmt) 20,366 20,560 194
Percent change (%) 1
Brown (tmt) 3,574 3,615 41
Percent change (%) 1
Paddy (tmt) 890 1,034 144
Percent change (%) 16
Results: impact on global prices
Rice type Base FTAA DifferenceMilled ($/mt) $235.50 $236.91 $1.41 Percent change (%) 1Brown ($/mt) 348.70 352.44 3.54 Percent change (%) 1Paddy ($/mt) 159.99 175.44 15.45 Percent change (%) 10
Results: impacts on Western Hemisphere rice imports
Rice type Base FTAA DifferenceMilled (tmt) 2,126 2,434 308 Percent change (%) 14Brown (tmt) 341 449 108 Percent change (%) 32Paddy (tmt) 667 819 152 Percent change (%) 23
Trade creation and diversion
Rice type Quantity(tmt)
Percentchange
Milled trade creation 550 26Milled trade diversion -142 -7Brown trade creation 155 45Brown trade diversion -47 14Paddy trade creation 157 24Paddy trade diversion -5 1
Summary and conclusions
• Study limitations– no substitution between rice types
• Limited impact on global rice trade and prices
• Trade increases for all types with the largest increase in rough rice trade
• Trade creation exceeds trade diversion by 568 thousand MT, 3% of world trade.