Bureau of Agricultural Economic Research (BAER)

Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE)

Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives (MOAC)

2nd Joint National Workshop on Rice Data

for Thailand and the Philippines

Manila, The Philippines

3-4 December 2014

Rice Stocks Measurement, Methodologies

and Practices: Progress and IssuesEngaging with Professional Associations

Outline

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1. Rice Situation

2. Rice Stock Measurement

3. Limitations and Issues

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1. Rice Situation

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1.1 Production

2.782.79

2.86

2.93

2.98

11.6412.91 13.34 12.97 12.36

32.4036.00

38.10 38.00

36.84

2.50

2.60

2.70

2.80

2.90

3.00

3.10

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

Yield Planted area Production (paddy)

(million tons, million hectares) (ton/hectare)

1. Rice Situation

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1.2 Rice Demand

0

5

10

15

20

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014**

Domestic utilization* Export(million tons as paddy)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 GR (%) 2014 ∆%

Domestic utilization 17.64 17.79 16.26 16.75 16.53 -1.88 16.33 -1.21

Export (paddy) 13.06 13.55 16.23 10.20 10.02 -7.83 15.15 51.20

Export (milled rice)*** 8.62 8.94 10.71 6.73 6.61 -7.83 10.00 51.20

*Domestic utilization includes food use, feed use, seed use and industrial use.

** forecasted, ***Conversion rate: Paddy : Milled Rice = 1:0.66

1. Rice Situation

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1.3 Farm Gate Price

13,171 14,961

15,365 14,85914,013

8,315

9,66210,156

8,7637,695

15,109

13,614

11,925

12,58612,062

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

Hom Mali rice White rice (15% moisture) Glutinous rice (long grain)

(Baht/Ton)

GR=1.18

GR=-5.15

GR=-2.49

*Average of Jan-Nov 2014

1. Rice Situation

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1.4 Export Price (FOB price)

1,023 1,0431,080

1,151

977

493

550 575517

425

901

999

815

935

805

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

Hom Mali rice (Grade B) White rice 5% Glutinous rice (long grain, 10% broken)

(US$/Ton)

GR=0.07

GR=-2.87

GR=-3.52

*Average of Jan-Nov 2014

2. Rice Stocks Measurement

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2.1 Commodity Balance (Source of data)

Supply DemandChange in Stocks

(Ending Stocks – Beginning Stocks)

Production

Import

Domestic

Utilization

Export

Center of Agricultural Information (CAI),

OAE

The Customs Department, MOF

The Customs Department,

MOF

Estimated by BEAR

2. Rice Stocks Measurement

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2.2 Domestic Utilization Estimation

Seed Use

Industrial Use

Consumption

(Food Use)

Planted Area1 Seed Rate1

Data from Thai Rice Association

Domestic

Utilization

Feed UseNumber of

Livestock1 Feed Ratio2

Data Sources: 1 CAI, OAE2 Department of Livestock Development, MOAC

2. Rice Stocks Measurement

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2.3 Consumption (Food Use) Estimation

Consumption (Food Use)

Thai

Foreign Workers

Tourists

Population1 Consumption per capita2

Number of

foreign workers3 Consumption per capita

Number of

tourists4

15*(2/3)*1/365*Consumption per capita

Data Sources: 1 Ministry of Interior2 National Statistical Office3 Ministry of Labor4 Ministry of Tourism and Sports

2. Rice Stocks Measurement

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2.4 Stock Data

Rice Stock

Government Stock

Private Stock

Household

Stock

Survey (NCPO) in progress

Estimation based on data from MOC and Thai Rice Exporters Association

CAI

2. Rice Stocks Measurement

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2.5 Activity under the project

� Consultant, rice utilization

� Start Date:

� Duration:

� Main Objective: To provide expert advice to OAE in developing a data collection and sharing strategy for rice stock

� Activities:

1. Review existing information on rice utilization in Thailand

2. Develop a strategy for adoption of rice utilization data for residual approach

3. Limitations and Issues

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� Food Loss and Food Waste: Lack of consideration on

food loss and food waste can bring an overestimation

of consumption.

� Harvesting Loss and Post-Harvest Loss: To improve

the accuracy of data, those losses should be taken

into account since it can affect the stock calculation.

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Thank you