Ricardo RamirezUniversity of Notre Dame

Department of Political Science

Transforming Politics, Transforming America:

Emerging Diverse Voters and Representatives

The Economist – Special Issue – March 2015 How to fire up America

The rise of Latinos is a huge opportunity. The United States must not squander it

View from outside UK

From minor to major -- DemographicsDreaming in English -- LanguageA suitable box to tick -- ClassificationNot our thing -- Political ParticipationCuba libre -- Foreign PolicyIn the shadows -- ImmigrationPick and mix -- ReligionThe dark side -- CrimeCollege or bust -- EducationHearts and minds-- MediaListen to this -- MusicHave faith in the -- Future outlook

melting pot

The Economist Special Issue – March 2015

Changing U.S. Population Requires Attention to ALL “emerging markets”

White Latino Black Asian0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90 85

3.5

11

0.6

66

1713

5.1

43

31

15

8.2

196020122060

Turnout Rates of Adult Citizen Population By Race and Election Year

2000 2004 2008 2012

White

61.8 67.2 66.1 64.1

Black 56.8 60.0 64.7 66.2

Latino

45.1 47.2 49.9 48.0

Asian 43.4 44.2 47.6 47.3

Civic and Political Incorporation by Race

WhitesAfrican

Americans LatinosAsian

AmericansCitizen (among adults) 98 94 63 68Registered (among citizen) 74 70 59 55Turnout (among registered) 90 93 84 86Political contributor 13 8 5 13Contact government official 21 11 9 9

Community work 30 27 21 21

“These findings challenge the 'conventional wisdom’ about patterns of participation in America. They are best explained by recognizing that the opportunities for political action among the American citizenry are not fixed, but instead vary with changes in the political stimuli across different periods.”

(Beck and Jennings 1979, 737)

Think about voters as market opportunities. Not fixed Vary with changing technology and global economy

Moment in time

Latinos as a case study

Short break

Asian AmericansWhat is unique?

Breakout sessionDiscussion

What we’ll cover today….

Narratives about Latino Voters:Rinse, Recycle, and Re-use

Narratives about Latino Voters:Rinse, Recycle, and Re-use

Revolutionary Transformation?

Evolutionary Transformation?

Largest Racial/Ethnic minority since 2001

Concentrated in 10 States [ >78% ]

Percent Latino of State Population2010 Total

Latinos% of Pop.

Total U.S. 50,477,594 16.4%

California 14,013,719 37.6%

Texas 9,460,921 37.6%

Florida 4,223,806 22.5%

New York 3,416,922 17.6%

Illinois 2,027,578 15.8%

Arizona 1,895,149 29.7%

New Jersey

1,555,144 17.7%

Colorado 1,038,687 17.1%

New Mexico

953,403 46.3%

Nevada 716,501 26.5%

More than a third of 12.9 million new U.S. citizens were Latinos (1991-2011)

Number of 18-24 year old Latinos grew from 1.8 million in 1991 to 6.5 million in 2012.By 2010 almost 1 in 4 youth (under 18) is Latino

Latino turnout broke records in 2008 & 20129.6-11.8 million (up from 4.9 million in 1996)Percent of electorate: 9% (2008) 10% (2012)

Latino Citizens, Latino Voters

Increasing media attention

Increasing use of Spanish-language media

More visible role of Latino elite and organizations

Latino turnout & preferences more relevant

Latinos and Politics

The Evolving Latino Electorate

Understanding Latino politics

Unanswered questions

When and How Change Happens

Redefining American Democracy

Outline: Mobilizing Opportunities

How and when are Latinos mobilized?

How has this changed the nature of the Latino electorate?

What unique challenges and opportunities do Latinos face?

The Evolving Latino Electorate

Ethnic/National Origin Model

“Pivotal Voters”

“Demography is destiny”

Understanding Latino Politics

Where are Latinos present and growing?

What state contexts drive Latino influence?

Who can’t vote?

Unanswered Questions

AZ

CA

CO

FL

IL

NV

NJ

NM

NY

TX

Latino Population Presence & Growth

-15

7

0

1

55

% G

row

th (

1990

- 2

010)

Presence (% of the State Population, 2010)0 27 50

Emergent Dynamic

EstablishedModerate

Where are Latinos present and growing?

What state contexts drive Latino influence?

Who can’t vote?

Unanswered Questions

AZ

CA

CO

FLILNV

NJ

NM

NY

TX

Latino Electoral Presence & Growth

0 8

8

1

76

% G

row

th (

1990

- 2

010)

Presence (% of the State Registered Voters, 2010)0 15 32

Emergent Dynamic

Moderate Established

Where are Latinos present and growing?

What state contexts drive Latino influence?

Who can’t vote?

Unanswered Questions

Proactive Mobilization: A range of elite-sponsored activities targeting

political participation infrastructure

Reactive Mobilization: Mobilization of Latinos in response to real or

perceived political threat.

PM and RM Mobilizing OpportunitiesTactical Mobilization:

short-term mobilization focused on specific election outcome (e.g. partisan or candidate campaigns)

When and How Change Happens

In 1980 there were only 67 Spanish-language radio stations in the United States

Proactive Mobilization: Spanish Language Radio

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20080

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

533

1041

Spanish-language Radio Stations, 1998-2008

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

Sta

tio

ns

Source: Arbitron 2005-2009

Radio is a ‘constant companion’

Time spent listening (TSL)

Linguistic isolation as a resource

Information-diffusion role

Community-support relationship with audience

Proactive Mobilization: Spanish Language Radio

Larger protests in cities with strong SL radio

SL DJs: information diffusion AND innovation

Synergy of PM and RM

Imminent threat subsided and “Corporatization” of DJs and Spanish-language Radio

Proactive & Reactive Mobilization: Spanish Language Radio

Proactive Mobilization: Since 1980s

Reactive Mobilization: Defensive Naturalization1990sSince 2006

Synergy of Proactive and Reactive Mobilization

Proactive & Reactive Mobilization: Naturalization

Proactive & Reactive Mobilization:Naturalization

Predictors of Intention to Naturalize

 Pre-Immigrant

Marches  Since Immigrant

Marches 

Independent Variables % Chg.   % Chg.

Age (Older)  

Male  Married  High School Graduate  Homeowner  Residential Stability  Television News Frequency  Political Interest  Trust In Government  Resident in Protest Metro  

Income >$24,999

"Very Well" Spoken English    

U.S. Resident in years      

Latino “participation puzzle”

Political context at the time of voter registration

Naturalized voters mobilized more

Reactive mobilization wanes after threat

The Changing California Voter: Case Study of Mobilizing Opportunities

Probability of voting predicted by nativity and registration cohort

Probability of voting predicted by nativity and registration cohort

Probability of voting predicted by nativity and registration cohort

From 1990 to 2010, the biggest changes in status quo was evident when there was a combination of reactive and proactive mobilization

Consequence is an evolving Latino electorate

Forthcoming changes, but from distinct sourcesYouth Immigrants

Will parties evolve in the extent to which they outreach to this changing population?

Redefining American Democracy

Symbolic partisan outreach vs mobilization

Mobilization and Microtargeting

Synergy of Proactive and Reactive Mobilization

Voter segmentation to segmented mobilizationHow is proactive voter mobilization impacted by

reactive mobilization effects?

Proactive & Reactive Mobilization: The Evolution of Latino Voter Mobilization

BREAK

Narratives about Asian Americans:Rinse, Recycle, and Re-use

Narratives about Asian Americans:Rinse, Recycle, and Re-use

Apathetic Asian Americans? Why Their Success Hasn’t Spilled Over into Politics -- Washington Post 1992

Percent Asian-American of Population

1960: 1 million AAPI2012: 15.5 million AAPIFastest growing racial category (46%)

By comparison9 million LGBT Americans,~3% of the total U.S. population

6.5 million Jewish Americans~2% of the total U.S. population

Rapid Population Growth

Ethnic Diversity within Population16 primary distinct ethnic origins

Largest groups: Chinese, Asian Indian, Filipino, Vietnamese , Korean, Japanese, Pakistani

Fastest Growing Asian Indian and Vietnamese

Since 2003, naturalizations of Asian immigrants have outnumbered their counterparts from North America every year, except for 2008 and 2012

Median age of 36 means Asian Americans are significantly younger than whites (40.2) but are older, on average, than Latinos or Pacific Islanders

AAPI turnout broke records in 20123.9 million (up from 2.05 million in 2000)Percent of electorate: 2.6% (2008) 2.9% (2012)

AAPI Citizens, AAPI Voters

Lack of consistent media attention

Ethnic media more segmented

Visible role of AAPI elite

Asian American party ID deemed less rigid

AAPI and Politics

Politically apathetic?

Focus on home country?

Low party identification? Language barriers?

Why is voting lower?

Politically apathetic NO

Political Participation by Immigrant Generation

Politically apathetic? NO

Political Participation by Length of Stay

Focus on home country? NO

Does attention to the homeland REDUCE participation in the United States?

Likelyvoter Contribute Contact Protest

Solvecommunityproblems

Money home(36%) 46% 14% 11% 5% 25%

No moneyhome 44% 12% 8% 4% 19%

Homelandpolitics (4%) 38% 23% 33% 25% 21%

No homelandpolitics 46% 12% 8% 9% 6%

Language Barrier? some

Political Participation by English proficiency, among U.S. citizens

Low Party Identification? Yes

“Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, Democrat, Independent, some other party, or do you not think in these terms?”

ASN IND CHIN FILIP JAPAN KOR VIET TOTAL

Republican 9% 8% 16% 13% 17% 31% 14%

Democrat 35% 25% 34% 40% 38% 20% 31%

Indep./Other 22% 28% 18% 16% 11% 18% 20%Do not think in these terms 34% 39% 32% 31% 34% 31% 35%

What explains Asian American political participation?

Asian American Political

ParticipationImmigrant

socialization

Racial/ethnic identity

Parties/political institutions

Political orientation

Civic engagement

Sociopolitical context

Proactive MobilizationReactive Mobilization

In 1990s defensive naturalization2006, perceived threat not as evident2012-now, Unauthorized immigrants

demobilized?ONLY 24% of eligible Koreans, 26% of eligible

Filipinos and 28% of eligible Indians applied for DACA.

Heterogeneous group

No unified ethnic media message

Mobilization important but different

The Economist – Special Issue – March 2015The rise of Latinos [AND Asians] is a huge

opportunity. The United States must not squander it

How to fire up America?