rfid forecasts, players, opportunities

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IDTechEx

RFID Forecasts, Players, Opportunities

Dr Peter Harrop, [email protected]

IDTechEx

www.idtechex.com


IDTechExGlobal RFID market

Systems + tags value

Tag numbers

2007 $4.96 billion 2 billion

2017 $26.9 billion 670 billion

The RFID business is boomingThe only big problem area is retail/ consumer goods

Here the retailers have benefitted by up to $100 million but havenot shared the benefit so CPG companies have lost about $100 million

and their chip, tag and reader suppliers have lostabout $100 million (partly suicidal price cutting, partly technical problems with UHF)

Result – CPG companies on a go slow.RFID suppliers look elsewhere


IDTechExThe RFID market is driven by standardsand governments

2005 IATA baggage tagging standard based on the new UHF ISO 18000-6ICAO passport standard based on ISO 14443, the most popular RFID standard by money spent

But 2007 FDA does not issue the anticipated standard for item level drug tagging. It now hopes the industry will agree on something.

(After 30 years the industry has not even agreed on anti-theft tag standards so there are still three incompatible systems. Forget drug tagging for now !!)

2006 Australian law to tag all cattleNew Zealand law to tag all dogsand so on………

Governments place huge military orders, demand national ID and city cards etc 2008 European law to tag all four legged livestock other than cattle2010 European law to tag all cattle as well


IDTechExUHF has technical problems

• Chosen for pallets, cases, air baggage and tires

• Has problems with absorption by water, reflection by metal and focussing by bent glass (ghost reading of things a long way away)

• The promise to reliably read all cases hidden by other cases is not met. Coca-Cola and Ahold now willing to consider other frequencies for this. Others already using other frequencies for this.

• Progress is being made. Nevertheless tag antennas have to be customised to purpose. Quatrotec (Alien) focussed beam reader liked by San Francisco Airport. Motorola success in airports, postal, retail ….Supermarkets use UHF OK at one meter or so with little in the way

• Unfortunately “Near Field” (new reader antenna and tag antenna) is probably needed for much of the item level UHF RFID – more variety

• UHF will never be the same permitted frequency, bandwidth or power level worldwide and permitted protocols are only slowly being standardised

IT’S HELL OUT THERE !!


IDTechExTag price vs volume

(tag price is at least 50% of total price in the high volume applications)

Only possibleby printing

- silicon chipstoo expensive


IDTechEx2017 RFID market

Tag value Tag number

Retail, Consumer Goods

$3.9 billion 488 billionMainly printed –no chip 0.8 cents

Other $8.2 billion 182 billion4.5 cents

Total $12.1 billion 670 billion


IDTechExBig changes in 2007

China becomes the world’s largest RFID market

40 % of global market by value

Peak of deliveries of National ID cards (HF) and their systems in time for the 2008 Olympics

$1.6 billion spent on this scheme in 2007

Several Chinese companies enter the top 15 RFID suppliers just by selling in China


IDTechExExamples of big Chinese RFID projects

• National ID card $6 billion project 900 million card• City cards 7-14 million RFID cards eachLargest in the Western World is London with only 7 million• Libraries place orders for over 40 million labelsTotal demand outside China only 50 million yearly• Pigs – 10 million being tagged. Total demand 2.4 billion yearly – law likely• Rail tickets – 120 million orderPotential 3 billion yearly• Secure access cards and badges 50 million yearly• Interest in RFID on 37.5 billion cigarette packets yearly

for anticounterfeiting• Law likely on tagging 150 million dogs

READ “RFID in China” www.idtechex.com


IDTechExWatch out !!

When the Chinese have finished gorging on the huge Chinese market and have fully automated,

they are coming for YOU


IDTechExThe most popular RFID

In 2007, the RFID market value is primarily in cards

The largest single order being serviced is the $425 million one for active tag systems for the US Military


IDTechExSummary of tag demand 2007

• No 1 – Cards at $1.4 billion HF

• No 2 – Animals at $0.18 billion LF

• No 3 – Passport e-pages $0.15 billion HF

HF remains by far the most popular frequency


IDTechEx

USA still has the largest number of RFID projects

2007 – IDTechEx Knowledgebaseof over 2600 cases in 94 countries

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

UnitedStates

UnitedKingdom

Japan Germany China France Australia Netherlands Canada Korea


IDTechExRFID today – number of cases reported

Item level tagging shoots ahead

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Air Bag

gage

Animals

Card (in

c. ke

y fob)

Clicke

r/immobilis

erConve

yance

Intermodal

contai

ner/ULD

Item le

vel

OtherPall

et/ca

sePas

sport

People

Phone

Ticket

Vehicl

e


IDTechExRFID today – number of cases reportedHF (13.56MHz) becomes even more dominant as the favourite

frequency by market value- Cards, tickets, books, passports …

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Chipless (2Hz-100 GHz)

LF (125-135KHz)

HF (13.56MHz)

315-333 MHz 433 MHz UHF (868-960MHz)

Microwave(2.45 GHz)

Microwave(5.8 GHz)

Ultra WideBand (UWB)

Multiplefrequencies


IDTechEx

Financial, Security, Safety the dominant sector by number of projects and value (mainly cards). Retail, Consumer Goods next in number of projects we have recorded. This is because of mandates but very little being spent in this sector

RFID today – number of cases reported

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Airlines

and A

irports

Animals

and Far

ming

Books, L

ibrarie

s, Arc

hiving

Financia

l, Sec

urity,

Safety

Health

care

Land an

d Sea

Logistics

, Postal

LaundryLeis

ure, S

portsMan

ufacturin

g

Militar

y

Other

Passe

nger Tra

nsport,

Auto

motive

Retail,

Consumer

Goods

Large orders flood in – mainly HF

RFID Company Value $M Sector Type CountryLockheed Martin 425 Military Active tags/ systems. US

ArmyUSA 433MHz active

Italy, Philippines HF

USA LF

Odin Technology 15 Military System integration USA UHF

UPM Raflatac 1 leading to 15

Mass Transit Tickets Russia HF

Cubic Transportation.

12 Mass transit Card system extension –Washington

USA HF

France HF

Paxar 10 Retail Passive tagsMarks & Spencer

UK UHF

TransCore 8 Railway Passive tag system South Africa MW

ERG 48 Mass Transit Cards/ systems

Digital Angel 20 Fish 10 meter wide readers in rivers to detect salmon. Bonneville Power & US Army Corps of Engineers

Affiliated Computer Services

14 Mass Transit Card system Marseilles

Largest RFID orders outside Chinacome from strange places and use many frequencies


IDTechExOne billion dollar RFID companies will be created

but not by those that stick to one frequency or ignore China …………

The biggest orders will continue to be landed by the system suppliers, system integrators and facilities managers.

Active RFID

Real Time Locating Systems and Ubiquitous Sensor Networks

15% of market value to over 20%


IDTechExLargest RFID suppliers in 2007 – here come the Chinese !!


IDTechExLargest RFID suppliers in 2007 – here come the Chinese !!

Cards, chipsYesChina90Datang

Cards China100WatchdataTechnologies

Transport card system integration.

NoAustralia140ERG

Military systemsYesSavi Networks (JV)US150Lockheed Martin

CardsYesChina80Eastcom Peace Smart Card

Systems, softwareWorldwide100IBM

Livestock, petsYesAustralia100Allflex

Cards YesSetecUSA/ France140Gemalto

ChipsYesHolland250NXP

Cards/ badgesFor ID & secure access

Yes10 acquisitions now in two divisions

US, Sweden etc 350 Assa Abloy

Main focusProfit(estimate)

SubsidiariesCountriesRFID Sales $M 2006 (estimate)

Company


IDTechExMost important sectors by value of tagsin 2017

Roughly equal at about $2 billion each –

• Smart cards

• Consumer goods item level

• Pallet/case

Second equal at around $1 billion each

• Military

• Animals


IDTechExTo learn more

• Read the IDTechEx reports www.idtechex.com• Attend the IDTechEx conferences eg “Printed

Electronics Europe” Cambridge UK April 17-18“RTLS and Active RFID” Dallas USA September 2007www.idtechex.com

• Ask for IDTechEx consultancy (clients include Hewlett Packard, REXAM packaging etc)

[email protected]

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