revised 3.7.2011. meeting. black legislative caucus. 2.28.2011
TRANSCRIPT
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Overview
2010 Population ChangesRedistricting CriteriaAnalysis of Voting Patterns
Mathematical ModelsRecommendations
Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams, PhD, Texas Southern University
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2010 Census
Once it is clear that everyone was counted in the2010 Census . . .
If districts are unbalanced in population, statesand localities must reconfigure existing districtlines
Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams, PhD, Texas Southern University
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2000-2010 State Population Changes
Source: 2010 Census PL94- 171; Plans 100
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Reapportionment Redistricting
Determines the numberof electoral seatsapportioned to Texas
The boundaries of elective districts areredrawn to maintainequal population
Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams, PhD, Texas Southern University
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Racial and Ethnic Population Changes
As an overall percentage:- African American population remains constant
- Anglo population declines- Hispanic and Asian populations increase
Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams, PhD, Texas Southern University
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Redistricting Criteria
Relatively equal population districtsPreserve county lines and other political divisions
Compactness and contiguity Legislators remain in their districtPreserve geographic boundary lines
Maintain communities of interestNo retrogression
Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams, PhD, Texas Southern University
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Equal Population and the 10% Rule
Source: 2010 Census PL94- 171; Plans 100
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Preserve Boundary Lines
Maps made with GIS mapping software and Census TIGER/Line Shp.files, by Callaghan and Adams,Texas Southern University
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Compactness and Contiguity
CompactnessA measure of how tightly packed a district is
Contiguity A district is contiguous if one can reach any otherpart without crossing a district boundary
Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams, PhD, Texas Southern University
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ContiguousPerfectly Compact
Not CompactNot Contiguous
Map made with GIS mapping software and Census TIGER/Line Shp.files, by Callaghan and Adams, Texas Southern University
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Communities of Interest
Defined by many characteristics, the most commonbeing:
Race
Economic StatusNeighborhood
Relevant interests must be tangible and must extendbeyond race itself (e.g., political views)
Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams , PhD, Texas Southern University
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No Retrogression
Does the plan cause a reduction of a minority
Are minority concentrations fragmented among
different districts?Are minorities over concentrated in one or moredistricts?Does the plan depart from existing criteria?
Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams, PhD, Texas Southern University
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Retrogression
Potential for retrogression exists in some districtsdue to diverse populations
Difficult to draw racially compact districts
African-Americans elected to districts where African-American populations are typically less than 50% of the total district population
Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams, PhD, Texas Southern University
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Packing
Putting as many people with the same characteristic into asfew districts as possible.
*adapted from Redistricting 2010 , Justin Levitt, Brennan Center for Justice
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Cracking
Splitting groups of people with the samecharacteristics into more than one district.
*adapted from Redistricting 2010 , Justin Levitt, Brennan Center for Justice
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City A
DemocratsRepublicans
*adapted from Redistricting 2010 , Justin Levitt, Brennan Center for Justice
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*adapted from Redistricting 2010 , Justin Levitt, Brennan Center for Justice
Republican Majority Districts 3Democrat Majority Districts 1
Gerrymandering - Republicans
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Maps made with GIS mapping software and Census TIGER/Line Shp.files by Callaghan and Adams, Texas Southern University
The 1 st Congressional District as Passed by theIllinois Legislature
LakeMichigan
1
1
Barack House
1
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Analysis of Voting Patterns
Provides minority voters the tools they need toextract from voting officials in the government ameaningful and equitable result
Election history and voting patterns within ajurisdiction to assess racially polarized voting
Analysis of voter registration and turnout
Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams, PhD, Texas Southern University
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Assessment of Racially Polarized Voting
# 1 Bivariate Correlations: % African American VAPand support of African American candidate
In each electoral contest, compare the proportion of VAP population that is African American and notAfrican American with the proportion of voterssupporting the African American candidate
Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams, PhD, Texas Southern University
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# 2 Racially Homogenous Precinct Analysis
Compare vote preferences in the most heavily populated African American areas (at or above 90%)with the most heavily populated non-African American
areas (at or above 90%).
Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams, PhD, Texas Southern University
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#3 Bivariate Ecological Regression Analysis
Uses all information, not just homogenous precincts
Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams , PhD, Texas Southern University
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Scatterplot Example
Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams PhD, Texas Southern University
y = 0.9671x + 0.0335
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
% Vote for African-American Candidates
% African-American VAP in Precinct
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#4 Ecological Inference Models
A more advanced technique now in vogue
Resolves weaknesses of prior approachesIs used in most voting rights litigation
Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams, PhD, Texas Southern University
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Other Considerations
Population Demographics: (race, income, education,employment, housing patterns-home ownership/
rentals)
Population Projections: What will districtdemographics look like in 2020?
Projected Voting Patterns
Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams, PhD, Texas Southern University
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Census Undercounts
Inequities in political representation and revenuesharing
Not all racial groups undercounted at the same rateAfrican Americans have a larger undercount thanAnglo Americans (as in all prior censuses)African American communities disadvantaged in allgovernment programs where population is used forfund allocation
Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams, PhD, Texas Southern University
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Recommendations
Districting principles that advance a particular planmust be those that actually guided the construction
of the plan (not an afterthought)Districting principles must be applied consistently across districtsAssemble a team (attorneys, statisticians, mappingspecialists)For additional guidance, talk to the JusticeDepartment.
Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams , PhD, Texas Southern University
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Bio: Dr. Michael O. Adams
- Professor of Political Science, Texas Southern University, Director of MPA andeMPA Programs
- Author of six books covering the fields of American Government, PublicAdministration and Public Policy; and more than twenty five peer reviewedarticles in scholarly journals
- Published articles on racial minority vote dilution in at-large city councildistricting plans
- 2009 Barbara Jordan-Mickey Leland International Service Award- 2009 Korean Fellowship Award, Seoul Korea-
2008 Quiester Craig Teaching Award- 2008 Defense of Democracy Fellowship, Tel Aviv University, Israel-
China- Ph.D in Political Science, The Atlanta University. Fields: Urban Politics and
Minority Political Participation and Public AdministrationTexas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan, PhD, Michael Adams , PhD, Texas Southern University
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Bio: Dr. Karen Callaghan
Associate Professor, Political Science, Former Director, Barbara Jordan-Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs Survey Center, Texas Southern University Visiting Professor, Vanderbilt University, Postdoctoral Fellow, Rice University Published author in several prestigious journals and pressesProbability models of minority vote dilution in Boston
Former Director, Quantitative Methods, Public Policy Ph.D. Program,University of Massachusetts, BostonGoldsmith Research Award, Harvard University National Science Foundation Doctoral Dissertation AwardBarbara Jordan-Mickey Leland Scholar Award
Recently served as Sr. Research Scientist, United States Defense Departmentcontractor in Afghanistan. Survey research and GIS mappingPh.D. in Political Science New York University at Stony Brook. Fields:Statistical Methodology and Political Psychology/Behavior
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Acknowledgements
Jay Ayier, J.D., Esquire Attorney
LaRecca Monique Coxeff Graduate Research Assistant
Texas Southern University
Texas Redistricting 2011: Karen Callaghan PhD Michael Adams PhD Texas Southern University