review for exam ii—fall 2013
DESCRIPTION
Review for exam II—fall 2013. October 16, 2013. Format for exam. 30 -- 40 multiple choice 3 sets of discussion questions Identical in format to previous exam. Bring…/Don’t Bring…. Bring… Scantron sheet Pencil, eraser, calculator Don’t Bring… Paper PDAs, Pocket PC’s, tablets, - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Review for exam II—fall 2013
October 16, 2013
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Format for exam
• 30 -- 40 multiple choice• 3 sets of discussion questions
• Identical in format to previous exam
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Bring…/Don’t Bring…
• Bring…– Scantron sheet– Pencil, eraser, calculator
• Don’t Bring…– Paper– PDAs, Pocket PC’s, tablets, – Programmable, high memory storage devices
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We Covered:
• Burns Chs 4, 7, 8• Schwalbe 3, 4, 6• {will not test you on Burns ch 8 on this
exam}
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Estimation
• Weakest link• History database• By analogy• Use models • Top down—uses…..XXXXXXX??• Bottom up – uses…..XXX??• Reconciliation of top down and bottom up
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Parkinson’s Law
• What is it??
The length of timeTo do a task
Fills up the timeAllotted for it
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ProcessesPMBOK Guide 4th Edition
Project Integration Management - Develop Project Charter - Develop Project Management Plan - Direct and Manage Project Execution - Monitor and Control Project Work - Perform Integrated Change Control - Close Project or Phase
Project Scope Management - Collect Requirements - Define Scope - Create WBS - Verify Scope - Control Scope
Project Time Management - Define Activities - Sequence Activities - Estimate Activity Resources - Estimate Activity Durations - Develop Schedule - Control Schedule
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More Processes
Project Cost Management - Estimate Costs - Determine Budget - Control Costs
Project Quality Management - Plan Quality - Perform Quality Assurance - Perform Quality Control
Project Human Resource Management - Develop Human Resource Plan - Acquire Project Team - Develop Project Team - Manage Project Team
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What are the processes that make up the cost management
knowledge area?• Estimate Costs• Determine Budget• Control Costs
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What are the processes that make up the quality management
knowledge area?• Plan Quality• Perform Quality Assurance• Perform Quality Control
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Methodologies
• Waterfall – Document-driven—CASE tools• Spiral—risk-driven—invented by Barry Bhoem• RAD—superior to SAD• Agile/Iterative—increasingly popular
– Scrum– RUP
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Process Map
Waterfall
Iterative
Low CeremonyHigh CeremonyLittle Doc, light process discipline
Heavy Doc, heavy process discipline, CCB
Risk Driven, Continuous integration and testing
Few risks, late integration and testing
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The Waterfall StaircaseDefinition of Requirements
Analysis
Design
Construction
System IntegrationTesting
Acceptance Testing
Implementation
Operation
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Figure 2-3. Spiral Model of Software Dev.
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What is the homegound for Waterfall?
• Stable requirements – few changes• Large monolithic app—can’t be broken up• Difficult development
– Mathematical algorithms– Compliers– Database engines– Artificial intelligence apps
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Home Ground for Agile
• Unstable/unknown requirements• Rapid technological change• An environment accommodative of change• An environment conducive to learning
• The latter two are accommodated together
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The Transform Model
• Did it work?
NO!!!
Writing a specification was not different from coding
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We also covered
•Probabilistic PERT (formulas will be given to you)– Each task (activity) requires three time
estimates – Optimistic, Most likely, Pessimistic
•Crashing
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Further comments
• Burns 6-13: Almost all of you did this wrong—you did not follow my solution in class, nor did you follow the solution provided in Chapter 6 of Burns
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Further Recitation• What is meant by feasibility?• What are three kinds of feasibility?
– General, economic (financial), technical• What is meant by a risky decision?
– State probabilities are KNOWN– Upside only, downside only, or both
• What is meant by an uncertain decision?• How can decision theory help us make
better project decisions?
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Know MS Project Navigation
• What tool is used to specify subordination?• What tool is used to link tasks sequentially?• What tool is used to assign resources?• How do you enter resources and their hourly
rates?• How do you show COST on the Entry table?• How do you specify durations?• What enables you to see ES, EF, LS, LF, Slack
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Topics--Chapter 6
• Must understand what Bayesian revision does for you
• Will have to do analyses exactly like that in Chapter 6– DMUU—Decision Making under Uncertainty– DMUR—Decision Making under Risk
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Decision Making under Uncertainty
• Choose alternatives—must be mutually exclusive
• Choose states—must be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive
• For each alternative/state pair specify a payoff
• What are the decision criteria? They are based on the DM’s attitude toward the situation—pessimist, optimist, regretist, etc
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To solve a problem like 6-10, you must
• Do both DMUU and DMUR• Recall that EPPI and EVPI are not decision
criteria, like EV* (maximal expected value) and ER* (minimal expected regret)
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To solve a problem like 6-12 or 6-13, you must
• First, solve the decision problem without any additional information– Determine the optimal choice– Compute EPPI and EVPI
• Second, perform Bayesian revision• Third, solve decision problem assuming a positive
predictor state (consultant predicts SUCCESS)• Fourth, solve decision problem assuming a negative
predictor state (consultant predicts FAILURE)• Compute EPSI and EVSI
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Remember…
• EPPI = expected payoff of perfect information is not a decision criterion … tells us the payoff of perfect information
• EVPI = EPPI – EV*(WITHOUT ADD’TL INFORMATION) … tells us how
much perfect information would be valued
• EVPI = expected value of PERFECT information• EPSI = expected payoff of sample information• EVSI = EPSI – EV*(WITHOUT ADD’TL INFORMATION)
• EVSI = expected value of sample information… tells us how much sample information would be valued—how much we might be willing to pay for additional information