retreating from areas of nyc vulnerable to flooding ... · damagefromflooding* 58,528 94.1%...

Retreating from Areas of NYC Vulnerable to Flooding: Practicalities

Legal Issues in Managed Coastal Retreat March 28, 2013

Columbia Law School

FURMAN CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE & URBAN POLICY I New York University I FurmanCenter.org I @FurmanCenterNYU

Vicki Been Boxer Family Professor of Law

Director, NYU’s Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy


Superstorm Sandy Surge Area

Source: FEMA Modeling Task Force, New York City Department of City Planning

The Enormity of the Challenge

The NYC surge area contained: •  24% of the City’s land •  93,130 lots (11% of total) •  75,919 Buildings •  302,303 ResidenQal Units (9% of total) •  50% of the net addiQonal building capacity of the Bloomberg era rezonings

How would the City implement a decision to retreat? n  Comprehensive plan for managed retreat n  Zoning resolution text and map changes n  Building Code revisions n  Amendments to the State and City Environmental

Quality Review Acts (or implementing documents) n  Revisions/coordination with state tidal wetland law,

city waterfront revitalization plan n  Purchase (buyout) and condemnation strategy n  Infrastructure and other investment decision

processes n  Storm water management plan n  New tools, such as regional resilience strategic plans

or scenario planning processes FURMAN CENTER FOR REAL ESTATE & URBAN POLICY I New York University I FurmanCenter.org I @FurmanCenterNYU

Comprehensive Planning for Retreat

•  Block by block, lot by lot analysis of costs and benefits of rebuilding versus retreating n  Risks area faces n  Cost of immediate rebuilding n  Cost of long term protection n  Cost/feasibility of evacuation n  Benefits of rebuilding (property values, taxes,

economic activity, personal attachment to place) n  Cost of not rebuilding – maintenance, liability n  Coordination with Local Waterfront Revitalization

Plan n  Integration with infrastructure investment plans



NYC Hurricane EvacuaQon Zones

In Evacua)on Zones A, B & C 270,000 Buildings 1,000,000 ResidenQal Units •  Zone A: 182,616 •  Zone B: 261,841 •  Zone C: 580,399

Source: New York City Office of Emergency Management, New York City Department of City Planning

Hurricane Sandy Surge Extent & EvacuaQon Zone A


Zoning

n  Setback requirements, rolling or stationary (e.g. 50 feet from high tide line, water’s edge, evacuation zone borders)

n  Elevation requirement (above surge zone) n  Designated no build/rebuild zone


Building Codes

n  Elevation requirements n  Basement/ground floor occupancy

restrictions n  Flood resilient materials n  Placement of critical mechanicals and fuel

supply n  Evacuation technology


Decade of Construction of Buildings in Surge Area

1% 2% 3%

15% 15%

6%

13%

21%

6% 5% 4%

9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Before 1900

1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s


Environmental Quality Review: Potential Changes

n  Require lead agencies to consider retreat scenarios as alternatives to rebuilding proposals

n  Require lead agencies to consider how any proposed rebuilding would affect resilience

n  Require lead agencies to consider adaptation and mitigation measures for any proposed rebuilding


Acquisition Strategy

n  Voluntary buyouts of land q  For cash, exchanges of land, sale/leaseback

for designated term of years or life of owner?

q  For individual lots or for entire neighborhoods (BLID concept)

q  At pre or post-Sandy values? q  With restrictions on redevelopment

imposed?


Where will people retreat to?


Building Type

Housing Units in Buildings in

Surge Area

Share of All Units in

Surge Area Single Family 32,137 10.6%

2-‐4 Family 58,699 19.4%

Condo 24,346 8.1%

Co-‐op 55,553 17.3%

NYCHA 35,476 11.7%

Other Rental Subsidies (SHIP) 24,533 8.1%

Rent Stabilized 41,102 13.6%

Market-‐Rate MulQfamily 25,603 8.5%

Mixed Used 4,854 1.6%

Commercial/Other — —

Total 302,303 100.0%

Even if we just retreated from damaged homes – 62,230 claims

As of January 2, 2013

Total with Damage 62,230

Damage without Flooding 3,702 5.9%

Damage from Flooding 58,528 94.1%

Flooding in Basement Only 28,672 46.1%

Basement Flooded < 2 Feet 5,341 8.6%

Basement Flooded >= 2 Feet 23,331 37.5%

Flooding in Living Area 29,856 48.0%

Living Area Flooded < 1 Foot 5,181 8.3%

Living Area Flooded 1 -‐ 4 Feet 15,535 25.0%

Living Area Flooded >= 4 Feet 9,140 14.7%


Because so many affected are low income, special challenge of rehousing

Number and Income of FEMA Registra)ons by Status as Owner or Renter

As of February 15, 2013

Registrants

Owners Renters

Total RegistraQons 67,802 84,279

Share of Total 44.6% 55.4%

Median Income $82,000 $18,000

Income between $0 and $15,000 16.6% 42.4%

Income between $15,001 and $30,000 13.3% 22.4%



Income > $90,000 26.6% 7.1%

Source: FEMA, 2010 Decennial Census, American Community Survey


Existing housing stock is woefully inadequate to rehouse

Monthly Rent Level Vacant Units Available for Rent

Household income at which rent would be 30%

Net Vacancy Rate

All Rental Units 67,818 3.12%Less than $999 14,383 $39,960.00 2.06%$1,000 to $1, 499 28,628 $59,960.00 3.87%$1,500 to $1,999 12,254 $79,960.00 4.14%$2,000 or more 12,553 $80,000.00 4.67%

Vacant Rental Units and Net Vacancy Rate by Monthly Rent Level, NYC, 2011

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2011 New York City Housing and Vacancy Survey.


Thus, there are about 43,000 affordable rental units vacant for the approximately 108,000 households making less than $60,000 a year who filed FEMA claims for damage

We’ve just scratched the surface

n  Relocation assistance n  Critical infrastructure requirements even if

there is a retreat because of network n  What to do with land? n  How to protect no-build areas from

pressures for development in the long run?

n  Etc. etc. etc.


retreating from areas of nyc vulnerable to flooding ... · damage*from*flooding* 58,528 94.1%...

Documents

retreating from areas of nyc vulnerable to flooding ... · damagefromflooding* 58,528 94.1%...