Rethinking school safety:

What does the data tell us?

Carl Hermanns

ASU

8/21/18

Santa Fe High School

A student’s voice

Santa Fe High School

It’s been

happening

everywhere.

I’ve always kind

of felt like

eventually it was

going to happen

here too.

The data

Let’s step back and see what the

data can tell us

The data: 1999 - 2018

The Washington Post

Since 1999, at least 141 children, educators and other people have

been killed in assaults, and another 287 have been injured.

Over the past 19 years, 428 people have been killed or

injured in school shootings

There are approximately 50 million K-12 public school students

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/local/school-shootings-database/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.cc1387c6323d

The data: 2018

2018 school shooting statistics

Education Week https://www.edweek.org/ew/section/multimedi

a/school-shootings-this-year-how-many-and-

where.html.

Conclusions from the data

Although schools

are statistically one

of the safest places

kids can be, it

doesn’t feel that

way due to the

random nature of

these events - and

perception is reality

“It’s been happening everywhere.

I’ve always kind of felt like

eventually it was going to happen

here too.”

Conclusions from the data

One result was the COPS in Schools program,

which increased the number of SRO’s in

schools by 38% over the next 8 years.

After Columbine, even though

incidents of school violence had been

steadily dropping since 1993 (NCES),

it didn’t feel that way.

Conclusions from the data

Threat assessments

Metal detectors

Secure campus entrances

Safety drills

Security cameras

Over the next 18 years, a number of

additional approaches were instituted in

an effort to keep schools safe, including:

How are we continuing to grapple with this today?

Active shooting drills

“School shooting drills

became the new normal

after Columbine”

Public school Active Shooter drills

2003-04: 46.5%

2013-14: 70.3%

2015-16: 94.6%*

NCES: 2015-16 = ”lockdown drills” – a broader

category that includes, but is not limited to,

active shooter response

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/16/17016382/school-shooting-drills-training

Calculating the risk of getting shot

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/20/us/school-shootings-drills-risks.html

Students raised with the

persistence of mass shootings

and versed in the protocol of

active shooter drills think often

of the possibility of a shooting

in their schools ...even running

scenarios in their heads about

how likely they are to get shot.

They calculate escape routes.

And they ponder hiding spots

in wide-open classrooms.

“It’s like the front lines of a war,” said Emily Rubinstein, a sophomore

at a New York high school. “Being seated in front of the classroom

could be what makes you live and what makes you die.”

STOP School Violence Act

Appropriates $50 million/year

for 10 years to:

Provide training to identify and

intervene to stop school violence

Improve school security technology

and infrastructure to deter and

respond to threats of school violence

Develop and operate threat

assessment and crisis intervention

teams

Facilitate coordination between

schools and local law enforcement

Texas Governor’s plan

Texas Governor Greg

Abbott announced a

new school safety plan

on May 30, 2018

At the heart of the governor’s

proposal is “hardening” schools like

Santa Fe as targets by:

Guarding them with increased

police presence, and

Persuading more school districts

to join existing state programs for

arming school staff.

The governor also proposes:

Providing active shooter

training, and

Including a heavy emphasis on

expanded mental health

screening and on-campus

counseling.

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/05/30/texas-gov-greg-abbott-santa-fe-shooting-school-safety-plan-gun-laws/

High-tech security

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/schools-are-spending-billions-high-tech-security-are-students-any-n875611

Schools are spending

billions on high-tech security

The uncertainty over how to

prevent school shootings and the

horrifying consequences of

failing to do so – has created a

business opportunity.

School districts are staking their hopes on high-tech security

systems originally developed for the military, police and

private industry, and are driving a rapidly growing school

security market, which has ballooned to a multibillion-dollar

industry.

High-tech security

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/schools-are-spending-billions-high-tech-security-are-students-any-n875611

Schools are spending

billions on high-tech security

Digitized building layouts paired

with surveillance cameras allows

police to get to the source of a

problem quickly.

“It’s about expediency. The sooner the police get there, the

sooner the carnage ends.”

“You cannot predict where this is going to happen. You can’t

sit and think, ‘Phew that won’t happen here,’ because it

absolutely could.”

High-tech security

https://www.edweek.org/ew/articles/2018/05/30/a-deadly-school-year-35-people-killed.html?cmp=eml-enl-eu-

news1&M=58500585&U=1965185

On the other hand

Santa Fe High School was already

using several security practices that

are often proposed in the wake of

school shootings.

The school has two armed police

officers patrolling a campus of

1,400 students.

The staff is trained in emergency

response,

students practice lockdown and

active-shooter drills, and

the school district has been

praised by Texas officials for its

safety program

”So what else could the

district have done to protect

teachers and students?

The Safe School Initiative report (2002)

• The attackers came from a variety of

family situations; almost two-thirds

came from two-parent families

• Wide range in academic achievement;

the largest percentage (41%) were

doing well in school

• Varied in social relationships, from

socially isolated to popular

• Wide range in discipline histories;

almost two-thirds (63%) were never,

or rarely, in trouble at school; only

27% had ever been suspended

• Only 1/3 of attackers had ever

received a mental health evaluation;

fewer than 1/5 had been diagnosed

with a mental health or behavior

disorder.

There is no one “profile”

The Safe School Initiative report (2002)

Commonalities:

• Most had difficulty coping with

significant losses or personal failures,

and many (71%) felt bullied,

persecuted, or injured by others.

• Almost all (95%) were current

students at the school where they

carried out their attacks.

• In many cases, other students knew

about it, or were involved in some

capacity.

• Most had access to, and had used,

weapons prior to the attack.

• Age range is 11 to 21, with 85%

between 13 and 18 at the time of the

attack. The median age is 16. but there are commonalities

The Safe School Initiative report (2002)

Conclusion:

The focus of the Safe School Initiative

was on examining the thinking, planning,

and other behaviors engaged in by

students who carried out school attacks.

Particular attention was given to

identifying pre-attack behaviors and

communications that might be detectable

– or “knowable” – and could help in

preventing some future attacks.

In light of the reports findings, the use of

a threat assessment approach may be

a promising strategy for preventing a

school-based attack.

Threat Assessment in Schools (2004)

“The vast majority of the nation’s

students will complete their schooling

without ever being touched by peer

violence.

Nevertheless, recent school attacks

carried out by students have shaken

the image of schools as reliably safe

and secure environments in which the

qualifications of teachers and the

efficacy of the educational curricula

are the most pressing concerns of

educators and parents.

Televised images of frightened and

injured students fleeing school

grounds have imprinted themselves on

the American consciousness.”

Threat Assessment in Schools (2004)

[These] highly publicized school

shootings have created uncertainty

about the safety and security of this

country’s schools and generated fear

that an attack might occur in any

school, in any community.

Increased national attention to the

problem of school violence has

prompted educators, law enforcement

officials, mental health professionals,

and parents to press for answers to

two central questions: "Could we have

known that these attacks were being

planned?" and, if so, "What could we

have done to prevent these attacks

from occurring?"

Threat Assessment in Schools (2004)

Threat Assessment:

Drawing on the findings from the Safe

School Initiative study, the threat

assessment process relies primarily on

an appraisal of behaviors, rather than

on stated threats or traits, as the basis

for determining whether there is cause

for concern.

Threat assessment is a process for

identifying, assessing, and managing

students who may have the intent and

capacity to launch an attack and pose

a threat of targeted violence in school.

19-year school shooting trajectory analysis

7

12

13

5

12

9

13

15

10

9 9

9

7

11

13

16

7

13

14

17

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

INCIDENTS OF SCHOOL SHOOTINGS 1999 – MAY, 2018

School Shootings Mean

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/local/school-shootings-database/?utm_term=.1168e32e6a0b

1999: 7

2001: 13

2002: 5

2006: 15

2011: 7

2014: 16

2015: 7

2018: 17

19-year school shooting trajectory analysis

7

12

13

5

12

9

13

15

10 9

9 9

7

11

13

16

7

13

14

17

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

INCIDENTS OF SCHOOL SHOOTINGS 1999 – MAY, 2018

School Shootings Mean

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/local/school-shootings-database/?utm_term=.1168e32e6a0b

What does this

data suggest?

Increased SRO presence

Metal detectors

Secure campus entrances

Safety/active shooter drills

Security cameras

Threat assessments

?

Discussion:

The argument

Everything we have been doing...

Active shooter

And other safety and emergency drills

The argument

Security enhancements

Threat assessment process

The argument

...is necessary, but not sufficient

The argument

We focused on the implementation

of concrete steps for “identifying,

addressing, and managing

students who may have the intent

and capacity to launch an attack

and pose a threat of targeted

violence in school”

We largely ignored the

report’s recommendations

on school climate and

culture

A reactive stance

The argument

Excerpts on culture and climate from the

Threat Assessment Guide handout

Effective threat assessment can only

occur in a larger context of school

safety. Cultures and climates of safety,

respect, and emotional support can

help diminish the possibility of targeted

violence in schools.

In an educational setting where there is

a climate of safety, adults and students

respect each other.

Ideally when this climate of safety is

created, students experience a sense

of emotional "fit."

The argument

Targeted school violence is arguably

only the tip of the iceberg of pain,

loneliness, desperation, and despair

that many students in this nation’s

schools deal with on a daily basis

The threat assessment process by

itself is unlikely to have a lasting

effect on the problem of targeted

school violence unless that process is

implemented in the larger context of

strategies to ensure that schools offer

their students safe and secure learning

environments.

The argument

Connection through human

relationships is a central component

of a culture of safety and respect. This

connection is the critical emotional

glue among students, and between

students and adults charged with

meeting students’ educational, social,

emotional, and safety needs.

The principal objective of school

violence-reduction strategies should be

to create cultures and climates of

safety, respect, and emotional

support within educational institutions.

The argument

To work effectively, safe

school climates that create

relationships of respect and

connection between adults

and students must be

accepted as integral to the

mission of threat assessment

and management, and

understood from the top down

as integral to the success of

the learning experience.

The argument

relationships of respect

and connection

between adults and

students

integral to the

mission of threat

assessment

integral to the

success of the

learning experience.

Reflection:

Has your district

emphasized the guide’s

recommendations for

authentic relationship

and connection among

students and between

students and teachers at its

schools?

If so, what does it look like?

If we haven’t, why?