Rethinking Populations for Use in Policy

RETHINKING POPULATIONS FOR USE IN POLICY

Phil Rees

School of Geography

University of Leeds

Paper presented at the Fourth International Conference on Population Geographies

The Chinese University of Hong Kong

10-13 July 2007

Outline

Aim: to explore how to reflect the complexity of our lives in the population statistics

Three visions: Richard Stone (1975), Len Cook (2003) and Finland Statistics (2005)

Counting people in the census: the 2001plan, the dispute, the investigations and recommendations

Example of service-population complexity: Use of Populations in the NHS Funding Formula

Estimating international migration: the New Migrants, Data sources on migration, the Task Force review, New measurement instruments

Long-term migrants, short-term migrants and visitors: moving to a duration/person-time view

Richard Stone’s grand schema 1975

United Nations (1975) Towards a System of Social and Demographic Statistics. Studies in Methods, Series F, No.18. Prepared by Richard Stone.

National Accounts Statistics

Production accounts

Leisure Services accounts

Social security and welfare services accounts

Housing capital accounts

Educational services accounts

Employment services accounts

Health services accounts

Public order and safety accounts

Socio-demographic Statistics

Population size and composition Leisure

Social class, stratification and mobility; Families and

Housing conditions

Learning activities

Earning activities and the inactive Health Delinquency

Distribution accounts statistics

Distribution accounts

Distribution accounts

Distribution accounts

Distribution accounts

Distribution accounts

Distribution accounts

Distribution accounts

Distribution accounts

Time Accounts Statistics Time accounts Time accounts Time accounts Time accounts Time accounts Time accounts Time accounts Time accounts

Diagram 3.1. An outline of a system of social and demographic statistics (adapted)

Len Cook’s 2003 plan

Source: ONS (2003) Proposals for an Integrated Population Statistics System. Discussion Paper, Office for National Statistics. Crown Copyright. Online at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_population/ipss.pdf

Finland’s world class statistics system

Source: Ruotsalainen, K. (2005) Finnish register-based Census System. Presentation at the Census: present and future, Gilbert Murray Conference Centre, 16-17 November 2005.

CPFruotsalainen.pdf, online at

http://www.geog.soton.ac.uk/users/martindj/cenprog/Conf2005.htm

Finland’s savings on census costs

Counting people in the census

In the UK as elsewhere, people are harder to count in censuses.

Before the 2001 Census a sophisticated system for estimating the 100% population from an anticipated 95% enumeration was put in place called the One Number Census (a project led by Ian Diamond, now Chief Executive of ESRC).

This was based on a parallel Census Coverage Survey (the largest survey ever undertaken in the UK) and data capture-recapture methods for inferring the 100% population with cloning of households and individuals in households deemed not counted in the census. The method was based on statistical independence between census and coverage survey and non-independence could lead to poorer estimates

This worked well across the country but about thirteen local authorities felt they had been short-changed. This was important because many central to local government funding allocations had the numbers of people and households at the heart of the allocation formulae.

Local population disputes, studies and adjudications

Several of the authorities challenged the 2001 Census One Number outcomes, including notably the London Borough of Westminster and the Metropolitan District of Manchester. The issue in dispute:

•Westminster population estimate for mid-2000: 245 thousand

•Westminster One Number population for April 2001: 181 thousand

Explanations:

•Some operational problems e.g. missed streets in census enumeration

•Some modelling assumption problems e.g. did the “Central London region” used to work out the ONC inflation factors apply to Westminster

•Over-estimation of immigration over the 1991-2000 period (based on allocations using the International Passenger Survey)

Outcomes:

Westminster commissioned expert review

ONS carried out detailed review of census data and collaborated in an address list matching exercise

The Statistics Commission carried out a review of the whole issue, taking evidence from Local Authorities and the Office for National Statistics

The population revisions

Source Publication date Date estimate applies to

Estimated population, thousands

ONS Mid-year population estimate 2001 June 2000 245

ONS, One Number Census Sept 2002 April 2001 181

MORI Sample survey carried out for Westminster City Council

2003 Dec 2002 215

ONS Mid-year population estimate Sept 2003 June 2001 186

June 2002 191ONS Mid-year population estimate Sept 2004 June 2003 203

June 2002 214June 2001 222

Populations of the City of Westminster estimated by ONS and Westminster at various dates

Statistics Commission (2004) Census and population estimates and The 2001 Census in Westminster: Final Report. Report No.22, Report by the Statistics Commission. Online at: http://www.statscom.org.uk/uploads/files/reports/Census%20Report%20Final%2022.pdf

Recommendations of the Statistics Commission (and some outcomes)

Closer working between government departments, local authorities and Office for National Statistics on 2011 Census (ongoing )

Targeted studies or surveys of selected areas before 2011 to spot problems and find solutions (local studies done )

Home Office and ONS to improve the quality of (international) migration statistics (Inter-departmental task force report produced and some recommendations implemented but root and branch proposals ignored )

National Address Register (stuck in limbo because intra-government wrangles and weak ministerial leadership )

ONS should develop one or more alternative measures of population to meet the needs of different users (no firm proposals, some thinking )

Government wide approach on disclosure control methods balancing benefits to individual welfare and costs to individual privacy (huge disagreements persist between the SDC police and give us data fit for purpose users )

Populations in NHS allocation formulae

Responsible practitioner guidance (who should supply health care services to a patient).

Resources are allocated to Primary Care Trusts who buy through general practitioner practices health care for patients.

Patients can apply to register with a practice of their choice; the practice can accept or reject them.

Practice populations overlap; PCT populations overlap.

There are some patients which tend to be unregistered but care needs to be provided.

The NHS registers are not yet regarded as reliable enough (because of lags in deregistration through migration and death) to distribute resources (~2 million more people in England than are in the mid-year estimates).

The ONS (in England) population estimates for Primary Care Trusts (aggregations of local authorities) are used to constrain/adjust PCT registered populations.

The ACRA battle: doctors want to use NHS register PCT lists, statisticians are reluctant because of the discrepancies (and the radical shifts in resources that a change would involve

But the NHS information project (to make available online the digitised records of 60 million UK residents) will ultimately drive a change

The need to improve international migration estimates

Two new waves of migration into the UK in the past decade:

• Asylum seekers from failed states

• Incomers are well monitored but returnees are not

• New migrants from countries joining the EU in 2004 (10 states) and 2007 (2 states)

• Large numbers of migrants have entered the labour force from Poland, the Baltic States and elsewhere: 605 thousand Worker Registration Scheme applications approved between May 2004 and April 2007

• How many have stayed? How many have been long-term migrants and how many short-term?

New migrants to the UK 2004-7

Source: Home Office, DWP, HMRC & DCLG (2007) Accession Monitoring Report: A8 Countries, May 2004-March 2007. Online at http://www.ind.homeoffice.gov.uk/aboutus/reports/accession_monitoring_report

UK data sources for immigration

How to improve international migration statistics?

The Inter-departmental task force report has led to small incremental improvements

The Home Office will be introducing electronic passports

• These can be used to measure length of stay in the country

• But how much other information will be attached

• We need to know purpose of migration, destination within country, occupation/work permit, family links etc (things asked on the migration section of the International Passenger Survey)

My proposal: introduce landing and departure cards for all nationalities at all points of entry/exit (can be electronic by pre-registration) = 100% IPS

Measuring long-term, short-term migrants and visitors

Long-term migrant (UN definition)

• A person whose country of usual residence changes for a period of 12 months or more

• Basis for UK statistics on total annual immigration and emigration

Short-term migrant

• A person whose country of usual residence changes for a period of 3 up to12 months

• May become part of the UK statistics delivery

Visitors

• Persons staying for less than 3 months

Migrant/visitor transitions

Retrospective

entry survey of intention

census or survey Visitor

Short-term migrant

Long-term migrant Totals

v' s' l' *=sum

Visitor v Fvv' Fvs' Fvl' Fv*

Pro

spe

ctiv

e

Short-term s Fsv' Fss' Fsl' Fs*

Long-term l Flv' Fls' Fll' Fl*

Totals *=sum F*v' F*s' F*l' F**

Switchers:

Visitor to migrant: Fvs’, Fvl’

Migrant to visitor: Fsv’, Flv’

Short-term to long-term migrant: Fsl’

Long-term migrant to short-term: Fls’

Two population estimates

We need to develop population estimates that include both long-term migrants as now and short-term migrants

The new (?) mobility

The discussion above refers to international migration

But there is the same set of issues for domestic residence and migration

• Households with two residences (weekday, weekend; second, holiday home; worker residence in distant location, family residence)

• Students with residential periods at parental home and at term-time residence (UK phenomenon)

• People distribute their time between long-term (main residences), short-term residences (second homes) and visitor residences (business trips, holidays)

• We should begin to develop estimates of person-time distributed across a set of residential locations

Matching alternative populations and services

The NHS example has shown how complex this can be but it is essential to develop a small number of agreed populations which will regularly estimated for the country and local areas, that will feed into central to local government allocations in a more nuanced way.

These parallel and alternative measures will also be useful for businesses and social researchers.

A HUGE AGENDA HERE!

If we make progress we might begin to realise some of the Richard Stone vision and the Len Cook plan