rethinking climate diplomacy: new ideas for transatlantic cooperation post-copenhagen

8/9/2019 Rethinking Climate Diplomacy: New ideas for transatlantic cooperation post-Copenhagen

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p a p e r s e r i e s

rethinking Climate DiplomaCy

New ideas for traNsatlaNtic cooperatioN post-copeNhageN

nigel purvisThe German marshall Fund oF The uniTed sTaTes

anDrew stevenson

resources For The FuTure


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FSC

FPO


3/34

Rethnkng Clmate Dplomacy

New ideas for transatlantic cooperation post-Copenhagen

Brussels Forum Paper Seres

March 2010

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Ed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3


4/34


5/34


Ne eas or transatlantc cooperaton post-Copenhagen3

Copenhagen

was a defining

momenta poin

when fundament

national interests

were revealed.

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Introduction

1


6/34

The German Marshall Fun o the Unte States4

Europe was

among the first

to articulate a

comprehensive

conception of

what should

come out of the

final negotiating

session in

Copenhagen.

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E Cii (9). Towards a comprehensiveclimate change agreement in Copenhagen, B, Bi.

Before Copenhagen

2


7/34



By early 2009,

Europes strong,

top-down

approach had

become the

yardstick for

Copenhagens

success in much

of the world.

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E bi, vi i

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Table 1: Alternative International Climate Regimes

Strong Weak

Top down Science-based, internationally

negotiated targets

Targets are legally binding and

have legal consequences for non-

compliance

Science-based, internationally

negotiated targets

Targets are not legally binding

and have political rather than legal

consequences for non-compliance

Bottom up Nationally determined targets/

actions based on political and

economic feasibility

Targets/actions are legally binding

and have legal consequences for non-

compliance

Nationally determined targets/

actions based on political and

economic feasibility

Targets/actions are not legally

binding and have political rather

than legal consequences for non-

compliance


8/34


Despite their

differences, the

United States

and Europe had

much in common

compared to

major emerging

economies.

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ff i C i

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wb i d b fd w

fd diff i f if-i wd f v f

b d f 9.


9/34



The Copenhagen

Accord is an

agreement with n

forum for action,

and the United

Nations offers

a forum with no

agreement.

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3 Ci Iiv (). C-ROADS analysis of CopenhagenAccord submissions, ://iiiv./bd.

Copenhagen Accord

3


10/34


Despite its

progress, the

United States is

still an unreliable

partner on

climate change.

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T fi i iii f

C i United States is

still an unreliable partner on climate change. T

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5 Idi fdi f di fdfi i dvi i d di id , S Evi d Pbi W i biwd d U.S. ii 833 % bw 5 v b .

6 T G M Fd f Uid S (9).Transatlantic Trends 9, (Wi, DC: T GM Fd f Uid S).

7 E Cii (9), Special Eurobarometer:Europeans attitudes towards climate change, B, Bi.Pw R C (7), Global Warming: A Divide onCauses and Solutions, Wi, DC.

8 T Wd D (), The Language of a CleanEnergy Economy, Wi, DC. ://www.df./d/738_L-f--C-E-E.df

Strategic Implications of Copenhagen

4


11/34



The stalemate

threatens United

States emissions

mitigation

and especially

financial

contributions.

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w f-i idd. Of , b

9Adi v f ix di . R CPii (9) President Obama Job Approval. ://www.ii.///id_b_jb_v-44.

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U.S. ii iii b i

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wd biiz $3 bii b f

d i ivii i dvi i

(ii di, di i

dfi, d i ).


12/34


The Copenhagen

Accord does not

fundamentally

change the

political calculus

in the Senate.

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Uid S f bidi

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b i C. Hwv,

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b id w qi. C

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v di i i

I 9 d, i v f w i dff v jd b U.S. Evi PiA, Ci Bd Offi, d E IfiAdiii f H i bi.

Ci Advi i, bd viw f fi FY ii ii. Id bi i dibi i iiiiv.

d wi bd dfii? T i ii d b f w

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v ffiv).

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Ii i i i .

2.Chinawillactbutitwillnotcommit

P i i ii

f C i China will take action

but, contrary to what many believed prior to the

conference, it will not commit. Ci biv

i d d b i

, d idd i i, b Ci i d

biv i i i vd b

, iiv, -dw ii

i i i iv

i. Hw d w w i?


13/34



China will take

action but,

contrary to what

many believed

prior to the

conference, it wi

not commit.

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d ii,

wi w b i f i

. Ci d iiv d.

B wii i fiv- d

w, Ci d bii f

wb d ffii i

w d fi bi

b ii v bw bi--

. Ci f bi f

v d di i . Wi

b i, i,d idi iiv v div

iiiiv, Ci i w ivi i

f di i f

di d (GDP) % f 6 d

ii wb 5% ( ) f

i ii b . T ii

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Ci b qi ii i ii

iii i vi

wd i i bvi ib. T d fPid Ob d i Nvb

Uid S wd d i ii i

f 7% f 5 v b , Ci

S Ci (idd v b Pi W

Jib) d Ci wd d i

b ii i f GDP 445% bw

Ci (6). The 11th Five-Year Plan, ://www.v./i/i/5_idx..W, J.L. d Li, A. (9).

Climate Progress in China: A Primer on Recent Development,Wi, DC.

3 W, J.L. d Li, A. (9). China Begins Its Transitionto a Clean-Energy Economy Chinas Climate Progress by theNumbers, Wi, DC. Lvi, M.D. d Pi, L. ().

Assessment of Chinas Energy-Saving and Emission-ReductionAccomplishments and Opportunities During the 11th Five YearPlan, ://i.b.v/i/i.b.v/fi/LBNL%FYP%Pi%f%WRI%D%.9.df.

5 v b .4

Ci iid i i i -C UN di.5

Wi i ffii

bii, Ci bd

d vi b wid i. F

x, Ci i xd i wid

i d f d.6

Y, Ci i id

i C. I iv, Ai d E

i i dib Ci i

i div, ii wi

b. Ci did i d di d d b.7 Wi

i i d bji U.S.

d E , Ci bi w

i f i w. A U.K. i Ed

Miibd d f C, T d

wi w, i f, v f i f i,

biv di.8 T iv

xi i Ci dd bf

C dii ii

w di w i i i i.

4 T Wi H (9). President to Attend CopenhagenClimate Talks, ://www.wi.v/--ffi/id-d--i-; Xi (9).China announces targets on carbon emission cuts. ://w.xi./i/9-/6/_5448..

5 Wi, S. (). Autonomous domestic mitigation actions,://f.i/fi/i/ii/df/id_.df.

6 Li, J. (8). Chinas Wind Power Development ExceedsExpectations (Wi, DC: Wdw Ii).

7 Pi C, Ci d d iiizd df i x d b Di v,di i wi D f . DiC, Ci d ff d bii bvi f d-i i dd Ci, Sd (wi vd ifi i f dvi- ). Ci fd ww i d b fwd d bd if wi , iid f f C f. O divd, Ci Pi W Jib did ii i if ii izd b PidOb, di iv ji ffii id.

8 Miibd, E. (9). T d f C,The Guardian.


14/34


Contrary to

what many

believed prior

to Copenhagen,

China was

promising to

mitigate its

emissions but

not to allow the

creation of a

strong regime.

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di i d i f

ii i i vid

Ci d d f d

ii i i i

wi i , d, d

iii f i-b w

. E i i w fid

Ci d d , i w idd

dv i f i b bi

i i i d ii

bii i i. I bf U.S. C i Nvb 9,

G C A M id, I

vid if w i E d Ai w

w d bidi bii,

w wi b b d Ci d Idi

ji i.9 Cfid i i i w

bi f ii i

v. T Ob diii w bi

di wi Ci i 9 d ffi

E ii. W Pid Ob d

Pid H i Biji i Nvb,

d iifi iii i dd bid i. I i w

Ci w ii ii i ii

d b ib , b qi i

i f -dw, i i.

T i b Ci b

dd i. W wd Ci i

i b i i C?

S v i d i

d f wd (i

9 M, A. (9). Speech before U.S. Congress,Wi, DC, ://www.i.d/ii//,58,65996,..

T Wi H (9).Joint Press Statement by PresidentObama and President Hu of China, ://www.wi.v/--ffi/ji---id-b-d-id--i.

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w i w, d bi bi dbd,

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d domestic ii di

. U.S. fii d i C

w v d -, d U.S. i

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Ci bd -d, d f i

ii. T i wd Ci

i i i i ii,

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i, bj if ii vifii,

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ii w. I , w i

ii i Ci id i

C.

B ii qi i i: Wd b

f Ci iii d fii

b E, Ai, d v d

diff? T w i i . Ti

i b Ci v w i i

bji if -dw, i

i i i. F

Ci, i Idi, f vidd biv

d i i i

bvi. Pd db v b

f Ci i di i 99.

Ci v iiiiv

Hi, S. (). E P-C Viw fOb, Nw Y, NY: The New York Times. W, G. dEv, D. (9). Ci U.S. i Cff, R.


15/34



China does

not accept

the distinctly

European notion

that mutual

constraints on

sovereignty are

desirable.

dv i i b i d dd i i ii v

w di id f ii.

Ov , f, Ci i

jd f E vii f

i i. I 9, Ci i

di d w i w di

di d f i

ii fii, wi i i i

ii b ii w. I MEF

d w, i jd id f ii

ii d d b wi Ciii d . Ci d Idi v

d d ididi

bidi bii-ib d, i

C, id wd di xi

if f -ib [] vid.3

Ci ii i ii

ii d xi, f wi

v di ii

d d . Ci ii i

b d i ii,

v xdi z f ii

. A b w wi wi

if, Ci d dii

E i i

vi dib. I id iii

wi d vif i d, v i i,

d i ii d b

vidd. I , Wd Td

Ci d- -i--v-i ii i, idi fwi ii ii ii C: Bi i 995 ( w ii f dvi i), K i 997 (),B Ai i 998 ( v i b dvii), d Bi i 7 ( ii vifii fi b dvi i i db ii fii).

3 D, S. (9). C f: Idi, Ci ji xi, The Times of India. Uid P Ii(9). C- dw f C,(Wi, DC: Uid P Ii).

Oizi, Ci idd dffb. Hwv, i f f i

.

I Ci v viw, v

w dd, i d f

ii bii d v vii

db-dii i xi, d i

i i i f.

Ci d viw -dw i

i i w

d bi w i i vidi

(bi i ib ). Tbiv bii ii iii

wd dib i . I i

bf C f, Pi

W Jib d i i

b wii fw

f ib dv d d b

i ff f dvi

i id f v.4 Ci wi

bb i i i dvd i

d ( i v if) bii

iii d i w iiv

d d v bfii.

I ddii, Ci di ii

d iv d bd

i i b w d b

dvd i d d b vd b

dvd i i x. I i

i C, Pi W izd

ii ibii f dvd i

d d i i jifid

dvi i d ii

di bd i d bii

d biii i did f iiibiii.5 I i w d i

4 W, J. (9). Build Consensus and Strengthen CooperationTo Advance the Historical Process of Combating Climate Change ,C, D.

5 Ibid


16/34


The problem

in Copenhagen

is not that the

transatlantic

alliance offered

too little, but

rather that China

never shared the

same goal of a

strong climate

regime.

iv d, iv dd f Wd B fd

i f Ci Ai

i v d i

i ii i ii i b

i if

w d.6 Hwv, i

i wd qi wi b f i

-di bi ii i d

db b Ci

w v d v iv.

T b i C, i , w i i ffd Ci i b

Ci d i

j v w -dw i i

i wd dv vi f

Ci i i i.

T bv, i ii d i

qi wid f i i wd

Ci, wi i 99 b

id i ii Ci i

b wi i i ,

ii , d i v i

W.7 Gb d fd i w

i Ci, b i i vid Ci i

ji w x

di d bv f i

. Id, Ci d dw d

xdd i f if.

I C f vid Ci

i fid, Ci i bi i

i ? N . Ci i

b wi, b C

d b f f i. Ci

ii f ii d f w

6 Wd B (9). Pbi id wd i :Fidi f i- , (Wi, DC: TWd B).

7The Economist(). E d ib Ci,Ld, U.K.

ii vi ii didi i didd Ai, bi

f diff . T Uid S w

v vi i global pax

Americana, wi Ci fixi wi vi

fw ii f di ii

di . Rd, C i

f vid f E xii

w i fb wi z

f d vi. B iv i

f fii wi Ci ii,

i f, i vii,

i di Tiw, d dC f

i i Ci i Uid S

d E.

3.Europeanpowerisrealbutlimited

Ci d i

E fi i. E dib

b b d. I iiv

i, i fi i

ii di . I i i

G, F, d Uid Kidv

b d ii iii,

ffii, d w-b

dvd i. Ii, E

K P iv f Uid

S jd i, d E d

i K

i. Ov dd, wd d

v wd d E iii

i b ii. Si K, E

d i

dfi iv vii f b i

i, d vii b b f i f wd.

Wi E d, i fd. E

id f w dd (i b

w bf 99 Ri E Si) vi

wd b i ii


17/34



While Europe has

led it has also

faltered. Post-

Copenhagen,

Europe needs

time to regroup

and re-examine i

leadership.

bd -dw ii d ib.Hwv, wd w i

i f f f b ii

i b i . A G

vi ii Nb R id f

C, Ai i wii b b; Ci

i b b wii.

E b b wii d b, b wi

i i i viw f C ?

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. F i, E i i

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f i Db 9. A i bjiv f

Lib w E wf

b d, wi Uid S. T

, f x, w w-d--

f id f E Ci d

bi vi fi i ii i

wf i iv f fi

ffi d i i, w v vi

id f E Cii. T

id ddii w i B d

b- vi i. Mi fi f E iii d

dii-i wi i, i i

b i d d E bi

biv b f

E. (W wd d

i-fi d xid did f

EU Ci id?) Lib E

i wd b di, b E wi v

fid i fi.

I ddii, E i bi dividd

di i . Wi UidKid, G, d Swd wi i

f di, E f

dd f -iiv i Pd

(wi 6% f i i f

i 7).8

I 9, E Ei w qi ffiv i bi ff

(i) i E iii i f

3% bw 99 v d (ii) qif E

( wd) i fi

i i i dvi i. I d,

d d fwd 7. bii

bf b bd vidi ifi

b f - fii.9 S E

E i v d i ii

i i d, f i bi,

b i dw.3

I ddii, E E i

b , iiv, d

ix di i i f

Ai. J i d i Uid S,

i dw i E if ii

i w f i . T EU7

i 9.6% i Db 9,

i i J d i f

f ii i Db

8. U i Si, f d i

Uid S f E d i

, i i 9.5%.3

I ff C, v, E i xii

ffiv f i d-b-x .

I i d i wd

f wi Uid S Ci, i

d if E v vii w-

b w i ffdb,

b fb dii i d.

8 U.S. E Ifi Adiii (). InternationalEnergy Statistics.

9 E Ci (9). Conclusions, ://www.ii../d/_d/d/d///877.df.

3 Ei, D. (7). EU Svi CO ii, wi b dd, Reuters. Pii, L. (9). EU dwB w CO ii, (B,Bi: EUOBSERVER).

3 E (). Euro area unemployment rate up to 10.0%,://....//ITY_PUBLIC/3-9-AP/EN/3-9-AP-EN.PDF.


18/34


Europe must

continue

leading with a

new openness

to alternative

approaches the

center of gravity

of global climate

talks will drive the

final negotiated

outcome toward a

bottom-up, weak

regime.

Ui E d v i, i di i i wdd

ii.

Ti ii d b id

f E bd i i di. O

, E v

f i i. I E

i i d iiiiv wi

d jb, f i ,

i w, iv i, d

E b i d

. P, if E b i di di, wd wi

wd d wi, d E

if wi b bi .3 N,

f i w d d f f ,

E i di i .

I, wv, i d wi w

iv ii

d wi ii xi b w

i f i, idi

Uid S, .

4.Climatenegotiationswillprogressslowly

Wi w f i, i

f b i i i iz.

E -dw, i

i i i . T

i biv Ci, Idi, d

i i wi d i

di ii i , v

wi iifi b ib i i fii

i. T i i d w

bii ii i

iii i j.

N i biv Ob

diii wi i ii

iii i i b

3 UK M Offi (9). New evidence confirms land warmingrecord, Ex, Uid Kid.

E, f 99 v. A i i,7% bw 5 v dfi d f

w i ib. N d E x

Uid S bidi bii

d -i q i f

f id Ci d Idi ii.

Pid Ob d i i dvi v

b i C d fi d

d f K. Ni

S Ai wi

i Uid S b

Ci. T diii biv i

xi di w Ci ii b id fi i i i,

b i d xi w Uid S

d b bj i if Ci

i . T Uid S di f b-

i d i b qiv

f i wi i

i d b dvd

i, idi Ai, Cd, d J.

Wi i i f

bidi , i i w d

wi b diii bd

i- i ( xii Uid S). Fi

i ii f v .

Absent a seismic shift in global climate politics, the

center of gravity of global climate talks will drive

the final negotiated outcome toward a bottom-

up, weak regime. Of , E

d i d. Si di i

i E j wG, F,

d Biid i dD,

Nw, d Swdwi i i

b v i i f xii Edii bjiv d i, E

v w w i ddi

iii f C. Sd i ,

E x fw i f

dvi i d ib w dw


19/34



, b i wd b i v bi

f vi f b ii. J

i i i Ci d

i i v d i ii vi

C Ad wi i. T i

i d bi f i

d ii viw i dvd i

d i iii d fii

d. Ti E, Uid S, d

d wd d b

ii i i dd

$ bii b d, d

w. A, Ci i i viw

C Ad wi biv.

Ab ii , v

fd i i C. If i

, ii d bi

i Ad v i w

d.

5.Innovativeapproachesareneeded

I b id i

w i i : iii,

di, d ffi.33 Af C,

wd i di wd i vii f wi f

ffi, f.

33 Hd, J. (7). Speech at John F. Kennedy School ofGovernment, Cbid, MA.

Bottom up

Top down

Strong

regime

Weak

regime

Strong regime: eager to create (for others

and itself) legal obligations with

non-compliance consequences

Top down: willing to have own mitigation

(by 2020 and 2050) determined through

negotiations, on the basis of science

Center of gravity: emission weighted

midpoint of negotiating positions

United States,

Canada and

Russia

European

Union

Brazil

Korea, Mexico

and Indonesia

Center of gravity

Australia and

least developed countries

Japan and

small island states

China, India and

South Africa

Figure 1: National Positions on Mitigation

S d f i .

S: Ci Advi i,


20/34


The risks of not

doing enough on

climate change

are already

enormous and

will only grow.

Adi i, d i d wi f

f d Ci b f w

d.34 Wi i, Ci,

ii ii id,

i i f . Wi

Uid S div i d d

ii i f 7% bw 5 v

b ? C E fw i %

di v 3%? C

J d i ii 5% bw 99

v b , iv i f iii i

i -ffii ? F, f w i ii b vidd

i i dvi i. Miii i i

f i diid dq

fii f dvd i. B

qi b w fd wi

iiz, di iii d b

dvi i d b viwd wi

ii.

Qi f fii, i

f i . Cid

w ib: didfi. C Bzi dfi if

di i vi i v?

C Idi f i f d

dw i i? N w f .

T wd i di

f i i. T Wd B i

f di i i

dvi i wi b $75- bii

34 Ci Iiv (). T iifi vid,b, w d f wi b i i f i i , b i ii f ii f fibii f iiiwi w d. Pj C (). Ti ii v iid b d C Ad, (S Fi, CA: CiWFdi).

5.35

D i wi b xd vid i f i fdi, i

vb i w iv

dd did i i d

v i d i w.

C, d i v dd $8 bii

i i fd (f iii d

di), b did $ bii. Ev

b dibd.36 Tdii fi id f

i di w w i w.

T iii d di d, d

vi, i d i CAd biiz $ bii f

bi d iv b . W i

d i i w ii i i

wd dbi f xii

fi id. T qi w

wi b . E i b wii

d i . If Uid S fwd,

E d d v

fw , , wi J d d

jii. Ai ii dfid

ii v d

xd. B d U.S. C v ii wi d bii f d v f

i ? U.S. w j i

i d d id f ii ii. Fw

b f C dd w Uid

S d iv f bii

i i i fi

ffii d - U.S. id

i w wd b d.

Wi E b b vid $3 bii

b if Uid S b? T

diffi f i E - fii

35 Wd B (). T C Dvi Ci fAdi Ci C Nw Md d Ei,T Gb R f Ei f Adi CiC Sd,(Wi, DC: T Wd B).

36 Ci fd d (). Pledged v deposited v disbursed,://www.ifdd./-ii/dd-did-dibd.


21/34



Moving climate

negotiations to a

new forum with

the same nations

would change

neither national

interests nor the

outcome.

d i 9 d f EU fiid v w, f w, ii f

E di. T dd f fi

.

Tw i vidb. Fi, i

f di i d

d wi i w v x

dd. Sd, i dd b

U.S. d E di. Wi f

i qib v di d

wi E i izd d -dw,

i i i iiz ,i i i f ii b w i b

id f Ai.

6.TheUnitedNationsisneithertheproblem

northeanswer

I idi f f C,

i d ivi i izi fd

Uid Ni f diii .

S d f UN f; d f

vi ii w.37

W d b : i ii f, Uid Ni i i if. Ci

did b fi i

w id dfdi ii i

ii i . T

f d ivi d d bi. I i

iib i bi wi 9 i,

if i f id.

R qi dii b f

id i d wi qii

ii. P i v w d f b.

37 Miibd, E. (9). T Rd f C, TheGuardian; L, F. d Lvi, M. (9). T Rd fC, The International Herald Tribune. Svi, R.().Another Copenhagen Outcome: Serious Questions Aboutthe Best Institutional Path Forward, ://bf..vd.d/i/vi/?=496.

A bd d UidNi i, wv, i i i idi

i . T i

C v i f Ci,

Uid S, d j w

qi w. Mvi i ii w

f wi i wd i

i i i . T MEF

i vid f i. N f i vd

bi i C w i i

MEF, v i ivv j 7 i d

i bi.

Mv, i iv f f

ii ( d ii dii) i

ib . T d iffiii

i UN v i f j

i i, -di

i, d . T i id

d b v dib. T v

iv ii d d

v bi wii Uid Ni v

w dd f i di. B

UN f (d ii

i) diii bw i dvd d dvi i, i i

b ii d d i

df f .

Dvi i w v

i b wii Uid Ni. Ci

wi 34 i i UN i

f, b i f fiv -OECD i

i MEF. I w i, f,

dvi i id

C Ad (Ci, Idi, Bzi, d

S Afi) i ji i J ffii i i i

wii Uid Ni.38 Idd, wi

38 The Hindu ().Joint Statement issued at the conclusionof the Second Meeting of Ministers of BASIC Group, New Delhi ,Ci, Idi: The Hindu.


22/34


The United States

and Europe have

to do what they

can to make the

UN process work

while recognizing

that real climate

solutions probably

need to emerge

elsewhere.

j i v w UidNi di ifi i i d

xi f C Ad,

Ci i w fi i. I ffii

bid i 445% bw bi--

b d xd f

Ad ii ddi, b i

i wii b id wi

i i f .39 Idd, Ci id i

39 UNFCCC (). Ifi vidd b Pi Cvi i C Ad, ://f.i//i/56.. Xi (). Ci id f C Ad, ://i.../9/9776/9883/688497..

izi ii dii Ad. I id wd

i f i i ii f

K P wi bii f dvd

i .

Ov, i i ib bi b j

f UN , d i

i div. The United States and Europe

have to do what they can to make the UN process

work while recognizing that real climate solutions

probably need to emerge elsewhere.


23/34



The primary

transatlantic

strategy needs to

become directly

incentivizing

action and

penalizing

inaction.

Wi b, UidS d E v b f if

ii f i b i

i. P wi dd, wv, i

f id, ii wi i

w w f ii. H x f

w i i i.

Prioritizeactionsovercommitments

I d d, Ai d E d

w f wi

i i. Id f i ii

iii b vii i bid

i i i i i

wi i v ii,

the primary transatlantic climate strategy needs

to become directly incentivizing action and

penalizing inaction. Ti diii

fii d ii q

bi f f -dw

i, b bi f

i i. W i

Biji Nw Di i i

w i b ii ,

d i i C i

ii, i,

d bvi i dvi i.

Mj i i v b xdi

b i iii. Ci, Idi, d

d d b i i

i wd w dd f , i

iqid f, b i di .

T i iv d

f - i. T

dd i f i i

i w, iv i iiv,

d i b w. I ddii,

id wi i

i i i (i i

d w qi) iv d iiiz

i . T i i f ivi

, idi iv i ffii, wb , d i,

x i-fid.

Di i i wi j

i i wd d bfi

f i i bd i .

Rid w i dd i i

i i b ii. N-

OECD i i i jd i

f 39.9 ii b d i 58.

ii d i 3 ( d i),

wi f 43.6% f b i b 5% f b .4 T d b

i d i i i,

Uid S d E v i

i i i i i Ci d

i v i d i.

Ci i vi d v

i d b iiizd.

Ii dd f - i

i j i i wd bfi

U.S. d E i i i . A

Pid Ob id i i J S f

Ui dd, vidi iiv f

ffii d i i

d f fb i d

wi b i

d b . I Nvb 9

dd U.S. C, G C

M izd i i, i,

dv f w i i

ff j ii f w d

jb i f. I xi i,

Ci b wd f

f d wid . Ci biiwb , v, i

4 U.S. E Ifi Adiii (). InternationalEnergy Outlook, (Wi, DC: U.S. E IfiAdiii), ://www.i.d.v/if/i/df/ifb_4.df.

Policy Recommendations

5


24/34


Turning vague

political promise

to mobilize new

climate financing

into reality is

the crux of what

Europe and the

United States

need to do.

f wd .4

Ci d f v 5% f wd wb

w i i 8, wi E d f

b -id f b . Ov f w

id E d Uid S.4

N i d i wi

j dvi i i E d

Ai i, b dii v

dw d b id

w fwd. L ,

wd j i d d f

i i MEF. A d d b d b

d f Ci, Idi, d Ai dvi

i vi Ai-Pifi Pi.

Ti d i i

bii i b j ii

f Uid S d E i .

Gd i i d i i.

Pii, d ii

i i wid , d Ai d E

d w i. W i

i i di d w fii

wi b d vib.

DeliverontheCopenhagenfundingpledges

T dii v i

i f dbi iv

i f i f di

b i i. J i dvd i,

dvi i dd i

, d iz i

i wd v i bfi. T

di b ibii, wi i

d f ii b wi i d f i i.

4 Bd, K. (). Ci I Ldi R MRwb E, The New York Times.

4 REN (9). Renewables Global Status Report 2009 Update,Pi, F: REN Si.

I , dvi i wi i bii f i i v

dd dvd i fi

i f w. A

$ bii d i C

Ad i, i ii, dvd i

wii d i if b i

b d. If E d

Uid S f j i i

bw i f ii

iii d i i i f d

i , f i

. Uf, i f iii wi Ci, Idi, d j

dvi- i i -

i w i v f iii bii

f i, wi d bf wi

f w i b ii. Wi

v d Ci dd f bii

i d iv i di

wb idi d d

, i d w .

Giv i iv iv d i d

if, Ci wi i di

iv wd -ffiv i.Ci i d , b dvd

i d i i fv f

. E d U.S. fiiwi d

i -dvd ii dd

b vi Ci ii i d

d , d ii iii

d i i wi

Ci b ib wi i i

i w bjiv. Therefore, turning vague

political promise to mobilize new climate financing

into reality is the crux of what Europe and the

United States need to do to achieve environmentally

meaningful change in developing nations.

W wi f? T

w, b b f b

id d b. Eii di

d b d i


25/34



Climate finance

needs to be at

the top of the

transatlantic

agenda in 2010

and beyond,

backed by a

willingness to

look at new and

old ideas with

fresh eyes.

f iivizi iv b iv i i w i i .

Ud , E Eii

Tdi S d di $3 bii

b wd i-ib iv i

dvi i.43 T -d-d ii

vd b H f Riv i

Uid S wd biiz wd f

$.5 bii i iv- fdi d $7.5

bii i bi fdi f dvi i

b . Hwv, b Uid S

d -d-d ii i ,

b b d v i w i .

Offii dv i

i b iid . Fi, dvd i

d i xii fi id fw

i-fid. Wd B di f

fi f d b ii id

di f wb .44 B i

xii fdi wi qi i d i

d-iz ii dv

bjiv, d ivvd wi ffi.

Siifi i v v f dvi dd. Si i i

fi d i i wi

b , b i b d. Pid Ob

d bd f fi vii

4% i i U.S. i-d fi

id d fi , d i i

f ii i bf.

E i b i,

d i d vi i

43 Bd w f .6 bii f ff f8, i q diibi d $5 b i. If E i i 3 % bw 99v b i i xd i wb bf ff d fii did dvi i.E Ui (8). Questions and Answers on the revisedEU Emissions Trading System.

44 Mid-Gibb, H. (9). Wd B E SLdi: Ei Wd Addii Fi F,Wi, DC: B Ifi C.

dii.45

Hwv, b i f iv w i i, i i d

w fi id d biiz fdi

viid b C

Ad. U.S. fdi f i i

wi b xi $ bii. T, v if

U.S. dv i f i i

5% b , i wd 5%

f fdi id dvi i i

C. Sv E i v b

i b i i .7% f GDP

fi i d, b i i f i

bd i i d ddiii wi b . T Offii Dv

Ai f 5 i EU d i

d $7. bii i 8, i

C d wd i qi

xi 3% v i i fi

i di i .46 Fi id wi

b f i, b iv b.

Ev ii iv, Uid

S d E d i i b

w i wd C

fdi d . T w Hi Lv P i fi d f i C

Ad vid z id

bx i, Si Dwi Ri i

Ii M Fd, w d f

db if, w f ii

. I i f id wi

b j i fii w

f v ii d dwid.

Rd, i fi d b

f i d i d bd,

bd b wii w d d id

wi f .

45 Lw, J.L. (). Presidents Proposal for the FY 2011 StateDepartment Budget, Wi, DC.

46 OECD (9). Dv id i i v v i8,(Pi, F: Oii f Ei C-id Dv).


26/34


Conditionality

should relate

more to what

countries do at

home than to

what they promise

or commit to

internationally

Trade represents

the most

important

untapped

opportunity

to jumpstart

climate action.

Pay-for-performance,notcommitments

Ri ii -

i w i fii, f

, wd v iii f b i

. I , fii i b

b E d Ai f fw

v v vi dvi i

bidi ii iii

i. Hwv, did vi,

diii i fii id

i b b f-dfi d

iffiv. Eii di dd d b ivd w if fd d

vib, wi i d i -bfi

f Uid S, E, d wd.

Mv, w dii ff f fii

i i i vi Ci,

Idi, d j i id

v jd i. T i

i id i i

i i i. Mi d

fii d wi dii

i b i i i. T

i dd di i ii wi f f d, b i

d f i i i wii

f vii dvi i

v if i i i ii

i i. Ai d E d

ii i i d

i d i C

Ad, b di f f

ii E vii f C wd

b w . Nw fdi wd bid

wi dvi i d d

di i i i ffdb di wi dv iii,

i i i dw d.

Wi E d Uid S d

b f di i fdi

i wd i

i i Uid Ni, diii (bif diff ) d b iid. T

Ai d w i i

d i dvi wd

d iiv f bii i b

. T i i diii d

w i d

w i i ii.

Nw fd d b d vib f i

f. P-f-f

wd ii i d

, d i wi i fii

ii ib i d i. TUid S d E d qi

dvi i ii d bi f

( bw). T i i

i d bidizi if dvi

i i d d xiv

dii i.

Ov, d b

di w dvi i

vib fdi. Ti i x i

f -bd b ii w

w

di.

Integratetradeandclimate

Ii d ii b d

f i. Td

i d i

j i i. P i i i

f .

Fi, i d fi f bidi,

G i dd d i 9. A i

i, v i i, i

f v d f bidi i dvd

i dvi ii

. T fd v i Uid

S vidd b $7 bii i fi f

bidi f 8, d d $3


27/34



Europe and the

United States

need to actively

promote clean

energy exports

and major

emitters need to

eliminate trade

barriers to clean

technologies.

bii i bidi f wb .47

EU-5 bidi i w id b

$45 bii, wi $8 bii f wb .48

T Ii E A fd

dvi bidi f

b i f $3 bii i 7,

wi bid $6 bii f Ci d Idi

.49 Ei d vi bfi f

iii bidi d

f .7% i i GDP d 3% di i

b dixid ii b 5.5

Sd, j i d ii dbi i. R b

Wd B d Wd Td Oizi

fd Uid S i iff bi

3 f 43 idifid i, d

Ci i bi 4.5 O i

fd E d Uid S v

w v iff 43

vi d d vi, wi v

id f 3% d .75%, iv. R i

Ai vd 7.5%, Li Ai 6%, d Afi

9%.5 Ci i f

f D d f d , d wi , d ii d dv v

id i WTO d bi d

id. Hwv, f

47 Ad, A., B, J., Did, J., Gd, L.,Pd, J., d S, D. (9). EstimatingU.S. Government Subsidies to Energy Sources: 2002-2008,(Wi, DC: Evi Lw Ii).

48 E Evi A (4). Energy subsidies in theEuropean Union: A brief overview, C, D.

49 R, D. (9).Achieving the G-20 Call to Phase OutSubsidies to Fossil Fuels, Gv, (Swizd: Gb Sbidi

Iiiiv).5 Gb Sbidi Iiiiv (9). Building Fossil-Fuel SubsidyReform: Have we got all the blocks?, Gv, Swizd.

5 Pi, D.M. (9). F Td, G Td, The NewYork Times.

5 U.S. S Si R (9).Major Opportunitiesand Challenges to U.S. Exports of Environmental Goods,Wi, DC.

i w iiiiv i i i vi, w i WTO

f wii i.

Tid, E, Uid S, d

dvd i d iv

x. I i S f Ui

dd, Pid Ob d f dbi

f v U.S. x i x fiv , wi

. T id

w Ni Ex Iiiiv d f

i i fii f Ex-I B

f Uid S f $4 $6 bii ,wi v bii d

d i.53 Wi f vi

d d vi w % f 7,

f E d Uid S x i

id d f. Ci

d f i b wi

i f i i

v i f wd.54 Rii xii

fd i i

vi E d Uid S f

fi f bid i i .

Fi, Uid S d E d

x fibii f bi f

w i bd iib

wd. Viib wd i

f bd wd iv didd

b f C fid vi

f i ii w wd

U.S. i i. Si ii

dii f bd i d

dvi i i bii f i

iii i b fxib i b

i . Ci-d bd i f. T i i

i, wv, b w bd

53 L, G. (). National Exports Initiative Remarks,Wi, DC.

54 U.S. S Si R (9).


28/34


Last year,

European

politicians

asked President

Obama to lead

internationally, this

year U.S. domestic

action should

be the priority.

WTO-ib d w di b iv vi bjiv

wi iiizi dv i q.

O d fd i ii

i E d Uid S wd v

iv i d x

-iiv fi idi. Wi

i iff d x b bd

b f di di,

i d b d d v vd

d x i.55 W

biv bd i,

v i, i i bw, d f d

d b ifid. Di wd vid

i i

w jif ii,

d b i d d w.

Dii b bd d b

iiid bi U.S.-EU di

i i OECD. B dvi

i v d dii

i i, ivvi vi UN, WTO,

b f wd v . T w w i-

d bd i d ii b

dvi i, wi d v iid

i q i Uid S d

v E. T i i b d

b bd i i f idq i

i. M dii b bd

v d f, b . T

d Ai d E d b

d b i i

b f d.

T ii i i vi

ii d . Td

55 M, A., Sbi, A., v d Mb, G., dH, J. (9). Reconciling Climate Change and Trade Policy,(Wi, DC: T Wd B).

wii i d , i wi d f w v ii. Td

iz i d d

i, d i i

f.

KeeppressingforU.S.action

I i i bd i ii

d fi i i i

Uid S. A w ,

Ob diii d E

d vi ib vi C

if i ii qi

ib. Wi j b xi i S,

dd f v v b b. Bf

, i bi d v d i

v b f C. Ad b

viv xd i wi i i f

i, dd b i d f .

T x fw v diiv. T

wi b (i) i idi

wi S, (ii) vii

bi i i wi jb (d

i i d), d (iii) i

f ii xid i

C. E wi .

T f i i, b i

.

E d d i di

Pid Ob vi i f

i ii i . L , E

iii d Pid Ob d

ii d d C

f. Ti , U.S. di i d

b ii. I ddii, E d

d di wi S, C

M did i 9. T f

didd, ib i, d

d i w, vii .

Hii, E v v

vi d i ii


29/34



The transatlantic

partners need to

work through the

United Nations

to secure formal

adoption of

the principles

reflected in the

Copenhagen

Accord.

Wi. Ti i v bw if S f w i

i ii i, vi,

i. E fi, i, d d

ii, w bi CEO, b

id vi i U.S. i

i ii i ffdb d i

i i b d ffiv.

T bd f di, wv, f

Pid Ob d S d. H

fid w i d ii

i di wf d i vivii. T v , ii :

ffi d d viv

i ii

v f idi ff dii,

ii id dizi, w,

, d fd f f d

wvidd if

i . Id f i bi wi

b d wi, id d S

d i ifi ii

i bi wi i . If

i viv, i dzd, d d 4 S

f (wi wi b d j i d),

bi wd S.

ImplementtheCopenhagenAccord

Wi di i ii di

i b i f f U.S.

d E i fi i, i i i

f w b ivd

i ii. T C

Ad w fd dii

d j fwd. Wwi i

dii, wv, v . U.S.

d E i d b

i i f f. Ti

d , wi b d d i

i b id f Ai w

izi w d. I , Bii Pi Mii Gd Bw

w C Ad

i , d i i i i

b b b i .56

Ii b , d

i i w i. Fi,

i d w

Uid Niiv dvi i

v d i i iv

f di f ii fd

i C Ad. Ti i , i d . Rd, i wi

b w ff if if vii f

d ii viw

bi f f w i

di, d i fii b ii

di b dq f i. N

i i i x dd

f i i w, b

i dvd w d f bidi

b f , i-bd i

dw d, izi i vi

v dd.

Sd, d i, E d

Uid S d w wi d

d , - i f

i i, di,

d f. I C Ad, E,

Uid S, d id $3 bii

i fii b . Ti i i diff

i f d -

fii d did bv, b

$3 bii d (wi $ bii

) b ivd dii fii. Dvd i div i

- fii d v f

i C Ad ii i

56 Bw, G. (). Letter to Dr Alan Williams MP, Ld,U.K., ://www.b.v./P33.


30/34


The transatlantic

parties should

use all bilateral

and multilateral

mechanisms to

generate needed

financing.

i . I, fii d bfid ii d Uid

Ni. R, i i d

bi d i i,

idi MEF, Ai-Pifi Pi

(wi d b xdd id E),

x i, i dv i

, d ii fii iii Wd B. Pvidi fii

id f Uid Ni i

wd v dv, idi iii

d i f ii

d diibi i w fdi.


31/34



To protect

the climate, a

fundamental

shift in thinking

is essential. The

worst thing the

Atlantic partners

could do now is

to reaffirm old

strategies with

a new sense

of patience.

T bi i f ffiv i ii i i d

d i E d Uid S wi

i i iii f

C, wv bvi b, i

b iii di

d ii diffi . T w i

Ai d d w i ffi

d i wi w f i. T

f i i i i E

b i i id -dw

i i ib

i b i i i, d b E iii wi i i vi

w f bid dxi.

Y, i, fd if i

ii i i. T ffiv

wd bi fi, -b-,

dvi iii i f

bd ib dv bjiv. T

f E d Uid S i

i w wi b ffi fii

-f-f bi d ii

ii d i wi i bjiv.

Nii f i i vib i i b

ii, ifd b ii xi b

x d f i . Mvi

f i i i i i

wi i. Dvi i v d

d, b i i d.

S wi dd ii wi d

wd. F i , E d i d d

w w. I i d i w

ii d Uid S f di

i wi fidi f fi i wi biiz v ii i

fd. E wi

f U.S. div i

f Obi f f d d E

b d i di . B

ibii i wi Uid S.

T w i iv, i xd. T

Uid S fid v

if id v ii iib.

I i U.S. di i

wd b i vidi

b i f i i .

Conclusion

6


32/34


Ed: Exi f i ii iii i Fi :

China, India, South Africa: wii bj

i i d i;

wii i i w iii i

ii; i d b

i i v f iii i wi 5%

di i b ii b 5.

Brazil: ii ii Ci,

Idi, d S Afi (bi

d i); di ii

di i wi 5% di i

b ii b 5.

Korea, Mexico, Indonesia: wii bj

i ii , i,

d vifii;

j i b ii id.

European Union: wii i,

ib i, d i i v i

i ii ii; wii

iii iv v f

bii bi f ii ii.

United States, Canada, Russia: wii

i, b if j i

bd b i, ; iv w dii

; wii i iii

bd ii ii; wii

b f 5% ii di b

5 wi iii b i i.

Endnotes

7Japan: wii i b if j i d w; i

i d b ii; wii

i iii bii v

bd ii ii.

Australia: wii i, b

if j i bd b

i; w dii di b

wii i bii bd i d

ii ii.

Small island states: f f

iii i bd i, b ffii

d bji v bidi

ii ii, i bi

d d ; b i i

wd i d b

bidi iii bii i x f

di if b

i.

Least developed countries: f

f iii i bd i

b ffii d bji v

bidi ii ii, i bi d d ; b i

i wd i d b

bidi iii bii i x

f di if

b i.


33/34


34/34

O f f

Washinton Berlin Bratislava Paris

Brussels Belrade Ankara Bucharest

www.gm.g

rethinking climate diplomacy: new ideas for transatlantic cooperation post-copenhagen

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