retailers open earlier to gain more market share this...

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Product Insights provide our customers with a detailed look at how they can extract more value from Thomson Reuters products, often in the context of current market events. View all Thomson Reuters Proprietary Research subscription channels. All data sourced from Thomson Reuters Datastream, the world’s market leading time series. It is available through a range of delivery platforms (via a desktop interface and Excel add-in or a dedicated data-download FTP site), and offers easy-to-use, focused and flexible tools to analyze, manipulate and display the data. Datastream includes more than 140 million time series, more than 10,000 data types and more than 3.5 million instruments/indicators. Learn more about Datastream and request a free trial . © 2010 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. PROPRIETARY RESEARCH PRODUCT INSIGHT: STARMINE, DATASTREAM SREPORTING ANALYST: Jharonne Martis-Olivo November 22, 2011 BLACK FRIDAY DEALS DRIVE CONSUMERS EARLIER TO THE MALLS RETAILERS OPEN EARLIER TO GAIN MORE MARKET SHARE THIS YEAR Black Friday Bringing Retailers into the Black . . . The Thomson Reuters Same Store Sales Index for November 2011 is robust, at 3.2%, despite a difficult comparison from November 2010’s 5.5% Same Store Sales (SSS) result. Earlier store hours, better inventory management and the lure of dramatic discounts that increase traffic are helping retailers post healthy SSS this November. The pricing war is on, with retailers opening stores earlier this year. Retailers are slashing prices on items for the holidays, hoping to attract consumers, while also trying to gain market share by opening earlier this year. Holiday spending is set to improve over the last five years. The Thomson Reuters Same Store Sales Index for Q4 2011 is significantly stronger (at 2.4%) than Q4 2010’s 1.2% and the 0.6% retailers experienced during the 2009 holiday. In fact, the 2.4% SSS estimate for Q4 2011 is the best showing since we started tracking quarterly SSS data in 2007. Brightest Spots: The Discounters excluding Walmart, and Home Furnishing stores are expected to post healthy SSS this holiday season. Likely to beat Q4 2011 EPS: positive surprises are expected from Cache, Ann Taylor and Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. On the flip side, a negative surprise is expected from Pacific Sunwear from California, Coldwater Creek Inc., and the Gap Inc. (StarMine SmartEstimate, pg 4). BACKGROUND Tracking recent signs of improvement in consumer spending, we’ve probed even deeper to examine factors likely to affect the consumer’s ability to spend this holiday season. These dynamics include changes in personal income, unemployment rate, and consumer confidence, among others, versus rates of change in consumption spending. This Product Insight also examines actions that retailers are taking to woo customers, and identifies retailers that might benefit in light of the challenging climate and shift in consumer behaviors and expectations. METHOD To capture an overall view of the economy, we collected data from Datastream, dating back to 1999, for: 1. Number of unemployed persons 2. Personal income wage and salary disbursements 3. U.S. Consumer Confidence Index – Present Situation Data 4. Retail Sales; E-commerce Sales 5. U.S. Retail Sales; Total Sales We calculated and charted the monthly year-over-year growth rates for these indicators, and then computed correlations between these economic indicators and Thomson Reuters Same Store Sales (SSS) Index. Also, Thomson Reuters StarMine Professional helped us predict quarterly earnings surprises for retailers.

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Page 1: RETAILERS OPEN EARLIER TO GAIN MORE MARKET SHARE THIS …share.thomsonreuters.com/general/dm_marketing/pdfs/TRPR_51203… · world’s largest retailer Walmart is opening at 10pm

Product Insights provide our customers with a detailed look at how they can extract more value from Thomson Reuters products, often in the context of current market events. View all Thomson Reuters Proprietary Research subscription channels.

All data sourced from Thomson Reuters Datastream, the world’s market leading time series. It is available through a range of delivery platforms (via a desktop interface and Excel add-in or a dedicated data-download FTP site), and offers easy-to-use, focused and flexible tools to analyze, manipulate and display the data. Datastream includes more than 140 million time series, more than 10,000 data types and more than 3.5 million instruments/indicators. Learn more about Datastream and request a free trial. © 2010 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license.

PROPRIETARY RESEARCH PRODUCT INSIGHT: STARMINE, DATASTREAM

SREPORTING ANALYST: Jharonne Martis-Olivo November 22, 2011

BLACK FRIDAY DEALS DRIVE CONSUMERS EARLIER TO THE MALLS RETAILERS OPEN EARLIER TO GAIN MORE MARKET SHARE THIS YEAR

Black Friday Bringing Retailers into the Black . . . The Thomson Reuters Same Store Sales Index for November 2011 is robust, at 3.2%, despite a difficult comparison from November 2010’s 5.5% Same Store Sales (SSS) result. Earlier store hours, better inventory management and the lure of dramatic discounts that increase traffic are helping retailers post healthy SSS this November.

The pricing war is on, with retailers opening stores earlier this year. Retailers are slashing prices on items for the holidays, hoping to attract consumers, while also trying to gain market share by opening earlier this year.

Holiday spending is set to improve over the last five years. The Thomson Reuters Same Store Sales Index for Q4 2011 is significantly stronger (at 2.4%) than Q4 2010’s 1.2% and the 0.6% retailers experienced during the 2009 holiday. In fact, the 2.4% SSS estimate for Q4 2011 is the best showing since we started tracking quarterly SSS data in 2007.

Brightest Spots: The Discounters excluding Walmart, and Home Furnishing stores are expected to post healthy SSS this holiday season.

Likely to beat Q4 2011 EPS: positive surprises are expected from Cache, Ann Taylor and Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. On the flip side, a negative surprise is expected from Pacific Sunwear from California, Coldwater Creek Inc., and the Gap Inc. (StarMine SmartEstimate, pg 4).

BACKGROUND Tracking recent signs of improvement in consumer spending, we’ve probed even deeper to examine factors likely to affect the consumer’s ability to spend this holiday season. These dynamics include changes in personal income, unemployment rate, and consumer confidence, among others, versus rates of change in consumption spending. This Product Insight also examines actions that retailers are taking to woo customers, and identifies retailers that might benefit in light of the challenging climate and shift in consumer behaviors and expectations. METHOD To capture an overall view of the economy, we collected data from Datastream, dating back to 1999, for:

1. Number of unemployed persons 2. Personal income wage and salary disbursements 3. U.S. Consumer Confidence Index – Present Situation Data 4. Retail Sales; E-commerce Sales 5. U.S. Retail Sales; Total Sales

We calculated and charted the monthly year-over-year growth rates for these indicators, and then computed correlations between these economic indicators and Thomson Reuters Same Store Sales (SSS) Index. Also, Thomson Reuters StarMine Professional helped us predict quarterly earnings surprises for retailers.

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© 2010 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_51203_45 2

THOMSON REUTERS PROPRIETARY RESEARCH NOVEMBER 22, 2011 PRODUCT INSIGHT: STARMINE, DATASTREAM — BLACK FRIDAY DEALS DRIVE CONSUMERS EARLIER TO THE MALLS

THE PRICING WAR AND HUNT FOR SALES GROWTH Retailers are extending their store hours, opening earlier this year to increase their store traffic and boost sales. The world’s largest retailer Walmart is opening at 10pm on Thanksgiving this year vs. midnight last year. Meanwhile, its archrival Target will open at midnight this year vs. 5am last year. On the flip side, JC Penney will open later at 4AM, and is expected to post an anemic -1.0% SSS for November 2011, considerably below its 9.2% SSS result from November 2010. Consumer spending usually slows in October, a break from back-to-school splurging ahead of the holidays. Consumers have pent-up demand, and according to our November SSS estimate, it looks like consumers will be hitting the malls. Retailers are expected to post a healthy 3.2% November 2011 SSS. Retailers are also taking advantage of social media to advertise. As a result, consumers are following their favorite retailers on twitter, Facebook and several mobile apps. In fact, while at the retail stores, consumers will use their smart phones to search for better deals on the items they want. Retailers know that most shoppers will take advantage of a good promotion, and the stores are using this strategy to compete for consumers’ disposable income. Overall, price pressures are high, and demand for a good deal is steep. In order to lure consumers, Target “will also reward 50 guests with a $500 Target GiftCard for showing their holiday shopping enthusiasm while waiting in line at a Target store for the doors to open for Black Friday by dressing up as Target’s fanatical shopper, The Christmas Champ” (Source: Target press release 11/21/11). Still, macro economic conditions have deteriorated over the last couple of months, and consumer spending accounts for 2/3 of the US economy. The biggest threat to consumer spending is the unemployment, which is expected to drop to 9.0% for November (Source: Thomson Reuters IFR Markets). Yet, if consumers feel the unemployment rate will continue to rise, they will put their hands in their pockets and hold back on spending. Another headwind is the US deficit; the super committee has not arrived at an agreement. As a result, spending cuts are likely to kick in and this could further hurt consumer sentiment. Consumer confidence is back at levels during the past recession. However, according to our Thomson Reuters SSS data, consumers will shop for the best value this holiday season, and retailers will take advantage of this on Black Friday. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the US economy entered a recession in December 2007, and the number of unemployed persons started to significantly increase, reaching its highest monthly year-over-year level in April 2009 (Exhibit 1). Looking at the year-over-year changes in personal income and the unemployed rate since 1999, we find a strong inverse correlation (-88.1%), suggesting that as the number of unemployed people rises, there is less personal income available, and spending declines. Notice how personal income fell into the negatives in December 2008, curtailing consumer willingness to spend, and denting consumer confidence during Holiday 2008. Lately, the unemployment rate showed signs of stability; Thomson Reuters IFR Markets expects it to come in at 9.0% in November, unchanged from October. Moreover, the personal income yearly average growth rate has been 3.7% since 1999, with a year-to-date average of 4.0%, above last year’s average of 2.2%, indicating that consumers have more money, which could improve confidence. Exhibit 1. Year-over-Year Changes in Unemployment Rate and Personal Income: 11/1999 to 11/2011

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream. Note: Monthly year-over-year growth rates used to calculate correlations.

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Page 3: RETAILERS OPEN EARLIER TO GAIN MORE MARKET SHARE THIS …share.thomsonreuters.com/general/dm_marketing/pdfs/TRPR_51203… · world’s largest retailer Walmart is opening at 10pm

© 2010 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_51203_45 3

THOMSON REUTERS PROPRIETARY RESEARCH NOVEMBER 22, 2011 PRODUCT INSIGHT: STARMINE, DATASTREAM — BLACK FRIDAY DEALS DRIVE CONSUMERS EARLIER TO THE MALLS

Our analysis reveals a 72% correlation between the year-over-year changes in personal income and consumer confidence since 1999, suggesting that as personal income increases so does consumer confidence. Notice how personal income fell into the negatives in December 2008, curtailing consumer spending during Holiday 2008, and further pressuring consumer confidence. Accordingly, same store sales (SSS) remained, for the most part, under water, not showing signs of improvement until September 2009. In 2011, the Thomson Reuters Same Store Sales Index generally remained within the 3% to 5% year-over-year monthly growth that has prevailed since December 2010 (Exhibit 2). Now, the index is expected to post a healthy 3.2% SSS for November 2011. Exhibit 2. Thomson Reuters Same Store Sales – 7/2008 – 11/2011

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S estimates. Note: November 2011 mean is a SSS estimate. For 2011 thus far, the Thomson Reuters Same Store Sales Index is showing 4.8% year-to-date average growth, which is significantly stronger than last year’s 3.5% average growth rate, 2009’s -2.5% average, 2008’s -0.7% average growth rate, and 2007’s 3.2% average growth rate (Exhibit 3). In fact, the 4.8% year-to-date average growth is the strongest showing since we started tracking this metric in 2000. Clearly, consumer spending has improved to healthy levels. Exhibit 3. Thomson Reuters Monthly Same Store Sales Average Growth Rate by Year: 2005 – 2011

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S estimates. Note: 2011 mean is a SSS estimate.

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Page 4: RETAILERS OPEN EARLIER TO GAIN MORE MARKET SHARE THIS …share.thomsonreuters.com/general/dm_marketing/pdfs/TRPR_51203… · world’s largest retailer Walmart is opening at 10pm

© 2010 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_51203_45 4

THOMSON REUTERS PROPRIETARY RESEARCH NOVEMBER 22, 2011 PRODUCT INSIGHT: STARMINE, DATASTREAM — BLACK FRIDAY DEALS DRIVE CONSUMERS EARLIER TO THE MALLS

STARMINE EARNINGS SURPRISE FORECAST Q4 2011 Looking forward to anticipated Q4 performance, we use StarMine’s SmartEstimate to determine which companies in our retail universe are better poised to beat earnings guidance. The SmartEstimate is a weighted average of analyst estimates, with more weight given to more recent estimates and more accurate analysts. Our studies have shown that when the SmartEstimate differs from the consensus (IBES Mean) by more than 2%, the company is likely to post subsequent earnings surprises directionally correct 70% of the time. This holiday season, positive surprises are expected from Cache Inc., Ann Taylor and Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. (Exhibit 4). Earlier this month, Cache Inc. posted a robust 5.7% Q3 2011 SSS result, above its 5.5% SSS estimate. The retailer is now expected to post the strongest comp for Q4 2011 at 11.0%, on top of the -6.0% SSS Q4 2010 result. Thomas Reinckens, Chairman, President, CEO of Cache stated in the recent earnings call that they were off to a great start for Q4 2011, “October comps were up 17.5% for the four-week period” (Source: CACH earnings call, 11/03/11) . Additionally, the company just upgraded its website, which resulted in a 73% increase in e-commerce sales in the quarter. As a result, Cache is very likely to beat its earnings estimate, and post a positive surprise. Likewise, Ann Taylor is expected to benefit from its on-trend fashion merchandise. The retailer has remodeled its Ann Taylor stores, to promote the brand’s aesthetic. Kay Krill, President & CEO, of ANN Inc. said in the earnings conference call “We believe our holiday assortment features a better mix of fashion and color versus core wardrobe essentials compared to third quarter. However, our plan is to operate in a highly promotional environment for the remainder of the quarter” (Source: ANN earnings call, 11/18/2011). Meanwhile, Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. suffered during the recession, but was able to come back with a strong marketing branding message. As a result, the retailer has been posting comps of 10.0%, and higher for over a year now. The company plans to expand internationally and open 60 locations in China. Farooq Kathwari, CEO of Ethan Allen said they continue to project their “message under the umbrella of being aspirational and attainable” (Source ETH earnings call, 10/25/2011). On the flip side, a negative surprise is expected from Pacific Sunwear of California, Inc., Gap Inc. and Coldwater Creek Inc. (Exhibit 5). Pacific Sunwear of California is being hurt by the promotional retail environment, which requires significant discounting to drive sales. Sales at Gap Inc. are likely to disappoint due to its weakening brand and lack of pricing power. As a result, the retailer is closing some of its stores and is expected to miss Q4 EPS and post a negative surprise. Coldwater Creek’s same store sales are expected to be hurt by its high inventory levels on styles that have not been proven to sell and a general lack of fresh styles. Exhibit 4. Positive Predicted Surprises for Q4 2011

Company Ticker Q4 SSS Est. SmartEstimate Mean Predicted Surprise Predicted Surprise %

Cache Incorporated CACH 11.0% 0.291 0.268 0.024 8.94%

Ann Inc ANN 5.5% 0.315 0.303 0.013 4.18%

Ethan Allen Interiors Inc ETH 9.0% 0.280 0.270 0.010 3.86%

Source: Thomson Reuters StarMine Professional. Exhibit 5. Negative Predicted Surprises for Q4 2011

Company Ticker Q4 SSS Est. SmartEstimate Mean Predicted Surprise Predicted Surprise %

Coldwater Creek Inc CWTR -12.3% -0.239 -0.233 -0.007 -2.99%

Gap Inc GPS -2.7% 0.380 0.393 -0.013 -3.36%

Pacific Sunwear Of Calif. PSUN -2.0% -0.298 -0.260 -0.038 -14.46%

Source: Thomson Reuters StarMine Professional.

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© 2010 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_51203_45 5

THOMSON REUTERS PROPRIETARY RESEARCH NOVEMBER 22, 2011 PRODUCT INSIGHT: STARMINE, DATASTREAM — BLACK FRIDAY DEALS DRIVE CONSUMERS EARLIER TO THE MALLS

THE HOLIDAY SEASON WINNERS AND LOSERS Exhibit 6 shows the Thomson Reuters Quarterly SSS Index (comprised of 83 retailers; note: retailers are increasingly forgoing monthly reporting schedules in favor of quarterly reporting). The Index is expected to post a 2.4% comp for Q4 2011, its best showing since we started tracking quarterly SSS data in 2007, and above Q4 2010’s 1.2%. All sectors are expected to post positive SSS (Exhibit 7). Exhibit 6. Thomson Reuters Same Store Sales Quarterly Index: Q1/2007 – Q4/2011

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S estimates. Note: Q3 and Q4 2011 mean are SSS estimates. Exhibit 7. Thomson Reuters Same Store Sales Quarterly Index: Q4 2011 SSS Estimates vs. 2010 Results

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S estimates.

(a) The Thomson Reuters Same Store Sales Quarterly Index is currently calling for a 2.4% comp for Q4 2011,

significantly stronger than the 1.2% posted in Q4 2010. Excluding Walmart, the index increases to 2.8%, stronger than the 2.4% Ex-Walmart result in Q4 2010. Retailers are managing inventory levels better than previous years, and they have revamped their business strategies to provide value without compromising margins — and this has increased traffic at retail stores lately. Cooler weather has also boosted demand for seasonal merchandise.

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SSS Index (83) (a) 2.4% 1.2% Mean ex-WMT (83) 2.8% 2.4%Discount (9) (b) 2.9% 0.6% Discount ex-WMT (8) 6.0% 4.7%Department (9) (c) 2.3% 2.7%Apparel (38) (d) 2.0% 3.2% Apparel ex-GPS (37) 2.7% 3.7% Mens/Womens Apparel (23) 1.9% 3.4% Teen/Child Apparel (10) 1.3% 0.3% Apparel Footware (5) 3.3% 5.1%Specialty Stores (24) 1.0% 1.2% Sporting Goods (3) 1.8% 7.1% Bookstores (1) 5.9% 7.3% Office Supplies (3) 0.0% -0.9% Jewelry (2) (e) 7.7% 9.9% Home Improvement (2) 1.4% 2.7% Home Furnishing (6) (f) 4.3% 6.4% Computer & Electronics (3) -0.4% -3.5%Drug (3) 2.8% 1.0%

Q4 SSSQ4 2011 SSS Estimate % Q4 2010 Actual %

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THOMSON REUTERS PROPRIETARY RESEARCH NOVEMBER 22, 2011 PRODUCT INSIGHT: STARMINE, DATASTREAM — BLACK FRIDAY DEALS DRIVE CONSUMERS EARLIER TO THE MALLS

(b) The Discount sector is expected to post a 2.9% SSS in Q4 2010, stronger than the 0.6% pace set in Q4 2010. Excluding Walmart, the sector is the strongest group, at 6.0%. Costco is on top, followed by Dollar Tree Stores and Family Dollar, at 8.3%, 5.4%, and 4.8%, respectively. Meanwhile, Big Lots and Walmart are expected to post the weakest SSS result in the group, at 1.4% and 1.6%.

(c) The estimate for the Department sector is currently 2.3% for Q4 2011, below the 2.7% comp posted a year

ago. Still, the luxury retailers continue to see steady demand, Saks and JW Nordstrom are on top with comps of 6.1%, and 3.5% respectively. Saks is facing a difficult SSS comparison from Q4 2010, when it posted an 8.4% SSS. Likewise, Macy’s brands are putting the retailer on track to register 4.0% SSS vs. 4.3% Q4 2010 result. At the other end, JC Penney is expected to record a -0.2% comp (vs. 4.5% Q4 2010). The retailer is at a disadvantage for this Black Friday as it will open later at 4AM, versus Macy’s and Kohl’s which will open at midnight.

(d) The Apparel sector is expected to post a 2.0% comp, which is weaker than its 3.2% Q4 2010 result.

Excluding Gap, one of the heaviest-weighted components in the sector, Apparel is set to increase to 2.7%, which is weaker than the 3.7% result posted in Q4 2010. Talbots, New York & Co. and Gap bring the group down, with comps of -5.9%, -3.1% and -2.7%, respectively. On the flip side, Cache, Chico’s and Ann Taylor are selling on-trend merchandise, and are anticipating comps of 11.0%, 5.7%, and 5.5%, respectively. Other standouts in Apparel include Limited Brands and TJX Companies, which are expected to post healthy comps of 4.2% and 2.9%.

(e) For Q4 2010, Tiffany & Company is expected to report a stellar 8.1% SSS result, below its 11.0% SSS Q4

SSS result. The luxury retailer is receiving a boost from to its Asia Pacific division, which is expected to register a 13.4% SSS. In fact, last quarter Tiffany’s smashed their earnings estimate and said they plan to continue expanding in this region.

(f) For Q4 2011, the Home Furnishing group is projected to post one of the strongest results, at 4.3%, but weaker than Q4 2010’s 6.4% result. The strength comes from Ethan Allen, at 9.0%, followed by Pier One Imports, at 7.5%, and Bed Bath & Beyond, at 4.4%, while Kirkland’s is expected to be the weakest, at -2.8%.

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© 2010 Thomson Reuters. All marks herein are used under license. TRPR_51203_45 7

THOMSON REUTERS PROPRIETARY RESEARCH NOVEMBER 22, 2011 PRODUCT INSIGHT: STARMINE, DATASTREAM — BLACK FRIDAY DEALS DRIVE CONSUMERS EARLIER TO THE MALLS

THE E-COMMERCE CONNECTION During the last recession, online sales struggled (Exhibit 8). Consequently, high-end designers aligned themselves with websites like Hautelook, which sells high-end designer clothing at discounted prices. The trend continued into 2011; luxury designers like Missoni aligned themselves with Target to promote their brand to a broader range of consumers. Its collection flew off the shelves and crashed Target’s site. Other designers followed suit, Christian Siriano who has aligned himself with Payless acknowledged the importance of pricing his fashion items well in this economic climate, without compromising much quality as possible (Source: Interview with Christian Siriano, September 2011). Analysts agree, one thing the recession has definitely taught the consumer is to shop for a value. Understanding and adapting to the new value-oriented consumer helped keep luxury retailers afloat, and other merchants to build customer loyalty. The TJX Companies, and Ross Stores are among sellers of designer clothing at discounted prices — and these retailers were the strongest performers during the economic slowdown. This, in turn, enabled them to cultivate customer loyalty that continues to translate into strong comps today. Online shopping did not escape the economic downturn; retailers also had to adjust their online strategies during the slowdown. Retailers are aware of the importance of an efficient and attractive website. Cache revamped its online site which in return boost online sales by 73% (CACH earnings call 11/03/11). Similarly, Ethan Allen stated, “Our focus is technology and we continue to invest in technology in all areas of our enterprise from manufacturing to retail to marketing” (Source: ETH press release, 10/25/2011). The actual dollar value of e-commerce sales has only dipped three times in the last decade, during the past two recessions: Q3 2001, and Q3 and Q4 of 2008. Yet, per Exhibit 8, e-commerce sales still keep trending upward. Exhibit 8. US Retail Sales – E-Commerce ($Mil.) — 11/1999 to 8/2011

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream.

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THOMSON REUTERS PROPRIETARY RESEARCH NOVEMBER 22, 2011 PRODUCT INSIGHT: STARMINE, DATASTREAM — BLACK FRIDAY DEALS DRIVE CONSUMERS EARLIER TO THE MALLS

Putting the above data under a short-term microscope in Exhibit 9, we see that total retail dollar sales dropped in 2008 and 2009. Nonetheless, e-commerce dollar sales kept growing as a percentage of total sales, showing that the amount of money consumers spend online continues to grow rapidly, for the most part. Exhibit 9. Government Retail Sales vs. E-Commerce Sales — Q4/2008 to Q3/2011

Total E-commerce

Q3 2011 1,052,734 48,244 4.6%

Q2 2011 1,041,406 47,352 4.5%

Q1 2011 1,029,575 46,131 4.5%

Q4 2010 1,003,112 44,517 4.4%

Q3 2010 972,770 42,418 4.4%

Q2 2010 963,671 40,419 4.2%

Q1 2010 948,172 39,159 4.1%

Q4 2009 928,333 38,269 4.1%

Q3 2009 918,917 36,909 4.0%

Q2 2009 896,957 35,133 3.9%

Q1 2009 895,260 34,151 3.8%

Q4 2008 915,673 33,393 3.6%

Q3 2008 1,002,911 36,180 3.6%

Q2 2008 1,016,290 36,691 3.6%

Q1 2008 1,010,490 36,244 3.6%

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Retail Sales (millions of dollars)

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Total

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream. CONCLUSION Our research shows that the weak labor market was fanning feelings of job insecurity, discouraging consumers from opening their wallets in 2008 and 2009. Today, the unemployment rate is still high, but somewhat stable. This is causing consumers to remain cautious, but more willing to open their wallets. Retailers understand this, and remain cautious about their outlook “the ongoing uncertainty in the macro-economic environment as well as the possibility of an even more competitive than usual holiday season, keep us somewhat cautious in our outlook for the balance of the year. As a result, although we hope to do better, we are maintaining our prior fourth quarter forecast for both sales and earnings” (ROST earnings release 11/17/11). However, it’s important to note that, so far, the consumer has remained resilient in the face of high unemployment:

• Personal income and consumption continue to increase close to trend, showing that consumers’ propensity to spend remains intact.

• Consequently, retail sales have remained within a robust 3% - 5% SSS growth range in 2011, again confirming that the consumer remains engaged.

• Lastly, although third-quarter GDP was revised downward, consumer spending rose 2.3% in the quarter, above the 0.7% growth in Q2 quarter, showing a great deal of momentum at the end of the third quarter.

• This could help boost consumer confidence and support positive economic growth into 2012. We’ve also found that while the unemployment rate remains high, there’s been a significant year-over-year increase in personal income, somewhat alleviating consumer concerns. Furthermore, based on 2011 Thomson Reuters Same Store Sales Index performance, consumer strength is expected to continue in 2012 within the 3% - 5% growth range that has prevailed since January. Consensus estimates are subject to change as additional analyst forecasts are issued. Still, it is clear that consumer spending has improved from year-ago levels, and that retailers have learned from their past mistakes and are more likely to avoid the inventory disasters of 2008 and 2009. Moreover, retailers are trying to gain market share by opening their doors earlier on Black Friday that could attract more consumers. Finally, Pacific Sunwear of California, Coldwater Creek, and the Gap continue to lag this holiday season, but, on the other hand, Cache, Ann Taylor and Ethan Allen are expected to receive some financial cheer for Holiday 2011.

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DO IT YOURSELF: RECREATE THIS ANALYSIS IN DATASTREAM You can retrieve this study’s macroeconomic indicators by using Datastream Navigator, and also chart them. There are many steps involved in this particular example, but you can complete them in about 15 minutes. We’ll show you how to pull the data we used to create Exhibits 1, 2, 8 and 9 in this study. To start:

1. In Excel, click T-One/Datastream to reach the Datastream dropdown menu. Then, select Time Series Request.

2. In the Time Series Window, click the Series Selection button.

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THOMSON REUTERS PROPRIETARY RESEARCH NOVEMBER 22, 2011 PRODUCT INSIGHT: STARMINE, DATASTREAM — BLACK FRIDAY DEALS DRIVE CONSUMERS EARLIER TO THE MALLS

3. In the following Datastream Navigator window, make sure “Economics” is selected. Under DS Mnemonic enter one of the following Datastream codes used in this Product Insight:

1. Number of unemployed persons - USUN%TOTQ 2. Personal income wage and salary disbursements - USWSALARB 3. U.S. Consumer Confidence Index – Present Situation Data - USCNPSIT

In our example, Consumer Confidence DS Mnemonic is selected. Then press the Search

button.

4. In the following Datastream Navigator window, select “Consumer Confidence Index – Present

Situation,” or the economic indicator of your choice.

5. The Datastream Ds Mnemonic code will appear under Series/List. Now select the “Start Date.” In our

example, we used 1/1/1998 and “Freq” is Monthly. Then hit the Submit button.

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THOMSON REUTERS PROPRIETARY RESEARCH NOVEMBER 22, 2011 PRODUCT INSIGHT: STARMINE, DATASTREAM — BLACK FRIDAY DEALS DRIVE CONSUMERS EARLIER TO THE MALLS

6. The data shows up in Excel.

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THOMSON REUTERS PROPRIETARY RESEARCH NOVEMBER 22, 2011 PRODUCT INSIGHT: STARMINE, DATASTREAM — BLACK FRIDAY DEALS DRIVE CONSUMERS EARLIER TO THE MALLS

NOTES / DEFINITIONS StarMine SmartEstimates®: SmartEstimates predict future earnings more accurately than consensus estimates by putting more weight on the recent forecasts of StarMine's top-rated analysts. StarMine creates SmartEstimates for multiple forecast fields, including Revenue, Cash Flow, EBITDA, Dividends, and more. Each day, StarMine creates SmartEstimates for thousands of stocks around the globe. When SmartEstimates diverge significantly from consensus, you can anticipate earnings surprises with an accuracy rate of 70%. Revenue SmartEstimates are even more predictive of surprises, with a historical accuracy rate of 78%. SmartEstimates can also help you create more accurate equity valuations, and are useful in predicting future analyst revisions. ABOUT THOMSON REUTERS DATASTREAM Datastream is the most comprehensive economic and financial time series database. It is available through a range of delivery platforms (via a desktop interface and Excel add-in or a dedicated data download FTP site), and offers easy-to-use, focused and flexible tools to analyze, manipulate and display the data. With access to an unrivalled set of historical financial content, you can investigate the correlations and relationships between global economic indicators and various asset classes. Datastream includes more than 140 million time series, more than 10,000 data types and more than 3.5 million instruments/indicators. ABOUT THOMSON REUTERS Thomson Reuters is the world’s leading source of intelligent information for businesses and professionals. We combine industry expertise with innovative technology to deliver critical information to leading decision makers in the financial, legal, tax and accounting, scientific, healthcare and media markets, powered by the world’s most trusted news organization. With headquarters in New York and major operations in London and Eagan, Minnesota, Thomson Reuters employs more than 50,000 people in 93 countries. Thomson Reuters shares are listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE: TRI) and Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: TRI). For more information, go to www.thomsonreuters.com. IMPORTANT NOTICE This disclaimer is in addition to and not in replacement of any disclaimer of warranties and liabilities set forth in a written agreement between Thomson Reuters and you or the party authorizing your access to the Service (“Contract Disclaimer”). In the event of a conflict or inconsistency between this disclaimer and the Contract Disclaimer the terms of the Contract Disclaimer shall control. By accessing these materials, you hereby agree to the following: These research reports and the information contained therein is for your internal use only and redistribution of this information is expressly prohibited. These reports including the information and analysis, any opinion or recommendation is not intended for investment purposes and does not constitute investment advice or an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or any derivatives related to such securities. Thomson Reuters does not warrant the accuracy of the reports for any particular purpose and expressly disclaims any warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose; nor does Thomson Reuters guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data included in these reports for any particular purpose. Thomson Reuters is under no obligation to provide you with any current or corrected information. Neither Thomson Reuters nor any of its affiliates, directors, officers or employees, will be liable or have any responsibility of any kind for any loss or damage (whether direct, indirect, consequential, or any other damages of any kind even if Thomson Reuters was advised of the possibility thereof) that you incur in connection with, relating to or arising out of these materials or the analysis, views, recommendations, opinions or information contained therein, or from any other cause relating to your access to, inability to access, or use of these materials, whether or not the circumstances giving rise to such cause may have been within the control of Thomson Reuters.