results of the 2019 annual update of the national income ...annual update of the national income and...
TRANSCRIPT
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Results of the 2019Annual Update of the NationalIncome and Product Accounts
Released July 26, 2019
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Real GDP growth
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2019 NIPA annual update
• Update covers 2014–2018• Benefits of new 5-year revision span
o Incorporates revised source data for earlier years State and local government finances
Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts
National Science Foundation Business R&D
Scanner data
o Improves seasonal adjustment
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New and revised source data
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• Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
• Occupational Employment Statistics
• Producer Price Index• Consumer
Price Index
• International Transactions Accounts
• Annual Capital Expenditures Survey• Annual Retail Trade Survey• Annual Survey of State and Local
Government Finances• Annual Wholesale Trade Survey• Service Annual Survey• Quarterly Services Survey
• Office of Management and Budget: Federal budget
• Internal Revenue Service: Tax returns for corporations, sole proprietorships, and partnerships
• Department of Agriculture: Farm statistics
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Real GDI growth
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Average annual rates of change for real GDP 2013 Q4 to 2018 Q4
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Recent contractions and expansions[Average annual rates of change]
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Average of real GDP growth rates by quarter,2014 to 2018
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Real gross domestic product[Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]
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Final sales to private domestic purchasers[Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]
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PCE excluding food and energy price index[Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]
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Personal income and outlays 2013 Q4 to 2018 Q4[Average annual growth rate]
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Statistical Improvements
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Improved cellphone and cellular services prices
• 2014–2017: New quality-adjusted prices for cellphones jointly developed by BEA and the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) based on data from the International Data Corporation on new cellphoneso Replaces annual FRB quality-adjusted price index, which was based on prices
for used cellphones• 2018 and later: BLS aggregate CPI for telephone hardware,
calculators, and other consumer items, which includes quality-adjusted prices for smartphones
• Impacts ono Consumer spending on telephone and related equipmento Consumer spending on cellular telephone serviceso Private fixed investment in communication equipmento Imports of other household goods
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PCE wireless services price index
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Other methodology improvements
• Incorporation of newly identified private source data o Consumption expenditures for video streaming and rental, based on
data from HarrisXo Consumption expenditures on tobacco, including purchases of vaping
products, based on data from Nielsen
• Priceso New quality-adjusted prices for electromedical equipment in investment
and foreign tradeo Improved prices for exports and imports of telecommunication,
computer, and information services
• Expanded use of Census quarterly services statisticso Air transportation
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Gross Domestic Product
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2014: Contributions to revision to GDP growth
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Real GDP growth was unrevised at 2.5 percent
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2015: Contributions to revision to GDP growth
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Real GDP growth was unrevised at 2.9 percent
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2016: Contributions to revision to GDP growth
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Real GDP growth was unrevised at 1.6 percent
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2017: Contributions to revision to GDP growth
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Real GDP growth was revised from 2.2 to 2.4 percent
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2018: Contributions to revision to GDP growth
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Real GDP growth was unrevised at 2.9 percent
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Real gross domestic product[Percent change from preceding period, SAAR]
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2017 Q2: Contributions to revision to GDP growth
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Real GDP growth was revised from 3.0 to 2.2 percent (SAAR)
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2017 Q4: Contributions to revision to GDP growth
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Real GDP growth was revised from 2.3 to 3.5 percent (SAAR)
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2018 Q2: Contributions to revision to GDP growth
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Real GDP growth was revised from 4.2 to 3.5 percent (SAAR)
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2018 Q4: Contributions to revision to GDP growth
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Real GDP growth was revised from 2.2 to 1.1 percent (SAAR)
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Gross Domestic Income
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National income revision in level
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Personal saving rate[Personal saving rate as a percentage of disposable personal income]