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TRANSCRIPT
Restoring Public Finances 2012 –
draft report
Knut Klepsvik,
Senior Policy Analyst, OECD
CESEE SBO
Tallinn, 29 June 2012
The survey
• “OECD Fiscal Consolidation Survey 2012” – plans as per the end of 2011
• 30 participating countries
• Consolidation is defined as “concrete policies aimed at reducing deficits”
• Cumulative impact over the period 2009-15
• Reforms for labour and product markets aimed at improving economic growth are not included
Categories of countries
A. Countries with IMF/EU/ECB programmes
B. Countries under distinct market pressure
C. Countries with substantial deficits and debt, but less market pressure
D. Countries with none or marginal consolidation needs
Substantial improvements in fiscal balances
2010-11...
Source: OECD Economic Outlook No. 91
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
HU
N
GR
C
PR
T
ISL
TUR
SVK
EST
NO
R
KOR
CZE
ESP
GB
R
FRA
PO
L
DEU IS
R
OEC
D
USA FIN
BEL
AU
T
ITA
SWE
IRL
NLD
DN
K
AU
S
CA
N
LUX
CH
E
SVN
JPN
NZL
Overall balance Structural balance
Percentage points of GDP
…and ambitious targets for 2014...
Overall fiscal balance
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2011 2014
% of GDP
… but still rising gross debt 2007-15
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
2015 2007 2011
% of GDP
Source: OECD Economic Outlook No. 91
Fiscal consolidation plans (2009-15) are
revised since last report…
-11-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-101234567
Percentage points of GDP
– the plans are extended and expanded
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Implemented consolidation in 2009-11 Consolidation plans in 2012-15
% of GDP
… and focus mostly on expenditures
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Expenditure reductions Revenue enhancements
Major programme measures
0
15
30
45
60
75%
Plan 2012 Plan 2011
Ou
t of3
0 r
esp
on
din
gco
un
trie
s
Major revenue enhancement areas
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90%
Plan 2012 Plan 2011
Ou
t of 3
0 r
esp
on
din
gco
un
trie
s
Summary
• Most OECD countries have announced expanded and extended fiscal consolidation
• Half of announced consolidation is implemented
• A few countries are withdrawing from consolidation
• Countries in category A have consolidation plans 2012-15 of 3.7% to 8.2% of GDP
• Countries in category B have consolidation plans 2012-15 of 2.3% to 4.6% of GDP
THANK YOU
FOR YOUR ATTENTION