responsible property investinggpivo/rockefeller presentation.pdf · changes in valuations near...
TRANSCRIPT
Responsible
Property Investing
Sustainable
Cities and
Buildings
Real
Estate
Investing
Corporate
Social
Responsibility
Socially
Responsible
Investing
Responsible
Property
Investing
RPI lies at the nexus of …
Definitions
• Real estate investments that benefit investors and the common good
• Portfolio, asset, or property mgt. practices that produce social or environmental gains consistent with fiduciary responsibilities.
• Efforts to address ecological integrity, community development, and human fulfillment in the course of profitable real estate investing
• Going beyond compliance with minimum legal requirements to better manage the risks and opportunities associated with social and environmental issues
James A. GrasskampUW-Madison Professor of Real Estate
“Man really is the only animal
that builds his terrarium
around him as he goes and real
estate is really the business of
building that terrarium. So we
have a tremendous ethical
content, tremendous social
purpose”
1996 by the UN Habitat
Agenda
“We endorse adequate shelter for all
and making human settlements
safer, healthier and more livable,
equitable, sustainable and
productive by socially and
environmentally responsible
corporate investment”
Property matters
• > 50% of energy-related CO2 is from
building operations and transport
• Perhaps 1 million+ janitors, maids,
bellhops and doormen in the USA
earn below a living wage
• US loses 1.5 million acres of farmland
per year to urbanization
• 2 million occupied housing units in
America lack water, toilets or
electricity
Property‟s Triple Bottom Line
• Economic Accounts
– income, value, returns, public tax revenues
• Environmental Accounts
– carbon footprint, biodiversity, eco-efficiency, natural hazards, land conservation, etc.
• Social Accounts
– worker wages and benefits, worker safety, respiratory illness, affordable housing, urban revitalization, segregation, unemployment, security, history & culture, aesthetics, childcare, infrastructure
RPI Style Funds
• Urban Funds
• Land Conservation Funds
• Brownfield Funds
• Historic Preservation Funds
• Low Income Housing Funds
• Community Development Funds
• Green Building and Smart Growth Funds
• Responsible Contractor Funds
Two examplesLearning Links
Centers, LLC
MuniMae Sustainable Land Fund
Working Groups
• TIAA-CREF
• CalPERS
• BC Investment Mgt Corp.
• AFL-CIO Investment Trust
• Methodist Church Pension Board
• GE Real Estate
• Kennedy Real Estate Counsel
• BOMA Intl.
• Urban Land Institute
• Real Estate Roundtable
• New Boston USA
• Institution Real Estate, Inc.
• Aviva
• AXA
• BC IMC
• Caisse des Depots
• F&C
• Hermes
• IL&FS
• Innovest
• Mistubishi
• Mn Services
• PruPIM
• Sumitomo
• West LB
Common Environmental
Practices• Setting energy, water, waste, GHG targets
• Building recommissioning
• Obtaining 3rd party endorsements (e.g., DJWSI)
• Using renewable energy
• Preparing habitat conservation plans for projects
• Training occupiers on conservation
• Supporting urban forestry
Common Social Practices
• Providing fair benefits and wages
• Investing in urban revitalization and affordable
housing
• Pursuing local hiring and training
• Seeking design and service awards
• Supporting community organizations
• Maintaining good health and safety
records
www.unepfi.net
UNEP Finance Initiative
Energy Conservation Better lighting, boilers, AC and office
equipment and recommissioning are
nearly always cost-effective.
Investa saved AUS$30,000
and 363 tonnes of CO2 per
year in Parramatta offices
at “minimal or no cost”.
www.unepfi.net
UNEP Finance Initiative
Fair Labor PracticesFair wages and benefits require 2.5% higher
rents. But they improve service by 25% and
increase rental income by 7% .
General Growth Properties has promised janitors at its 194 regional shopping centers access to affordable health insurance, market-based wage rates, complaint resolution procedures, and green cleaning products.
SRPI REITs
• Brandywine Realty Trust USGBC member and LEED building owner
• Boston Properties US EPA energy star partner and
NAREIT Leader in the Light
• Simon Properties Carbon Disclosure Project participant
• Equity Office Properties General Growth Properties DJWSI and FTSE4Good constituents
• Others
What are the key criteria?
2006 SRPI Delphi Project
RPI Metrics4.0-5.0, 3.0-4.0, 2.0-3.0
• More Walkable, Less Auto Dependent Places
– Transit Oriented, Centrally Located, Walkable,Carpool Friendly, Bike Trails and Facilities
• Low Carbon
– Energy Efficiency, Daylight and Ventilation, Renewables, Local Sources
• Worker Well Being
– Parks & Open Space, Sense of Community & Place, Childcare, Handicapped Accessible, Amenities for Working Parents
• Urban Revitalization and Reuse
– Urban Revitalization, Adaptable Interiors, Suburban Redevelopment, Brownfield, Not on prime farmland
RPI Indicators Study
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
Energy Conservation
Less Auto-Dependence
Worker Well-Being
Urban Revitalization
Environmental Quality
Health & Safety
Corporate Citizenship
RPI Index, Sub-Indices Scores
Portfolio 1 Portfolio 2
Leaders‟ views on RPI2007 Survey of Senior Real Estate Executives
Sponsored by
BOMA Intl., ULI, NAREIT, The Real
Estate Roundtable
Conducted in cooperation with
Institutional Real Estate, Inc.
Not Done
Planned or Under
Consideration Implemented
% % %
Value Statement 39% 18% 43%
Strategic Planning 36% 22% 42%
Learning/Management Systems 55% 29% 16%
Conservation 24% 23% 53%
Responsible Contractor 50% 16% 34%
Women or Minority Owned Businesses 52% 13% 35%
Committee for Sustainability or CSR 68% 12% 19%
Social or Environmental Accounting 59% 15% 26%
Targets and Benchmarks 69% 19% 13%
Disclosure 65% 18% 18%
Stakeholder Engagement 44% 11% 45%
Are you using…?
Not Invested
Planned or Under
Consideration Invested
% % %
Brownfields 52.4% 17.0% 30.6%
Green Bldgs 35.1% 32.4% 32.4%
TOD 31.8% 16.9% 51.4%
Infill or Revitalization 22.3% 15.5% 62.2%
Are You Invested In…?
SRPI Stage
%
Non Responsiveness 7.1%
Compliance 17.0%
Efficiency 37.6%
Strategic Proactivity 29.1%
Sustaining Organization 9.2%
Your RPI Stage?
Mean
Cost avoidance 3.8
Concern for risk and return 4.6
Peer activity 2.8
Employee recruitment/retention 3.2
Internal leadership 3.8
Business advantage 4.2
Opportunities to outperform 4.3
Moral responsibility 4.1
Voluntary codes of behavior 3.9
Stakeholder pressure 2.7
Investors 3.0
Customers 3.7
Drivers
Prospects
• 82% of executives would increase
their allocation to RPI if it could meet
their risk and return criteria
Is RPI neutral or positive for
returns?
Desert Riparian Areas along Tucson‟s
Tanque Verde Wash, 96-99
Colby and Wishart, The Appraisal Journal, 2002
Open Space in Portland,
1990-92
Bolitzer and Netusil, J. of Env Mgt, 2000
Note: best type
was golf courses
Conservation Subdivisions
outperformed in So.
Kingston, RI
Mohamed, Urban
Affairs Review, 2006
Average price
per acre of
lots sold
Average
improvement
costs per lot
Average
selling time
Conservation
Subdivision
$125,000 $18,700 9.1 months
Conventional
Subdivision
$107,000 $26,100 17.0 months
Regeneration OutperformedTotal Annualized Returns, „81-‟02
J. of RE Portfolio Mgt, 2006
Retail Office Industrial
All UK Property 11.49% 9.65% 9.09%
Regeneration
Properties
15.50% 10.59% 12.60%
The “Green Tilt” at Work
Source: Innovest
Land Use Mixing in Single Family
Neighborhoods, 1970 Tucson
Use Benefit to Median Home
Value from 10% increase
in land use
Maximum studied
Commercial $990 12%
Multifamily $940 20%
Industrial $440 10%
Public $930 21%
Cao and Cory, Annals of Regional Science, 1982
Changes in Valuations near Dallas
Light Rail Stations, 1997-2001Clower, Australasian J. of Regional Studies, 2002
Land Use Control DART
Office 11.5% 24.7%
MFR 34.8% 42.0%
Retail 30.4% 28.3%
Industrial 21.5% 13.0%
Investment Returns from
Responsible Property
Investments:
Energy Efficient, Transit Oriented and
Urban Regeneration Office Properties in the
US from 1998-2008
Study Question
Can an investor be “responsible” and
earn competitive returns?
Methods• Data
– Financial from NCREIF
– Energy Star from EPA
– Regeneration from HUD RC/EZ/EC locator
– Transit data from BTS
• 4,460 office properties, 1999-2008
• Portfolio analysis & OLS regression
Methods
• Dependent financial variables
– End of quarter market value per square foot
(log)
– Annual income return (log of 1 + return)
– Annual appreciation return (log of 1 + return)
– Annual total return (log of 1 + return)
Methods
• Control variables
– Regional supply (completions)
– Regional demand (job growth)
– National market (NCREIF office index)
– Property (age, size, floors)
– Region
– Subtype (CBD, suburban)
– Congestion (density)
Independent variables• Energy Star dummy
• Transit dummies – within ½ mile of fixed rail
– transitcb, near transit in a CBD or not near in a CBD
– transitsu, near transit in a suburb or not near in a
suburb
• Regeneration dummies – in or near RC/EZ/EC
– regencb, in or near zone in a CBD or not in one in a
CBD
– regensu, in or near zone in a suburb v. not in one in a
suburb
Total Return Std. Dev.
RPI
(since 2006)
12.05%
(11.63%)
2.46%
Non-RPI
(since 2006)
10.18%
(6.61%)
2.50%
Portfolio analysis
estar.254* (5.9%)
regensu.317* (9.4%)
regencb-.144* (-2.4%)
transitsu.553*
(12.7%)
transitcb.193*(4.5%)
Net operating income
Controls were significant with expected
sign, .25 R-squared, 31,000 observations
RPI properties had from 5% to13%
higher net incomes except in CBD
Regeneration areas, consistent w/ their
designation
Caused by various combinations of
+rents, +occupancy and -expenses
Energy Star had +5% rent, +1%
occupancy and -10% utilities (the rent is
similar but occupancy is less than what
others have found)
NOI per SF
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
NO
I p
er
SF
Estar
Not Estar
estar.127*
(13.5%)
regensu.023
(2.3%)
regencb.011
(1.1%)
transitsu.150*
(16.2%)
transitcb.099*
(10.4%)
Market values
Generally found higher values, consistent
with higher incomes
Energy Star had +13.5% value (similar to
what’s been found by others)
Exception was RegenCB which had
higher value contrary to lower NOI
estar.002
(0.2%)
regensu-.014* (-1.4%)
regencb.004
(0.4%)
transitsu.011* (1.1%)
transitcb.005
(0.5%)
Capital appreciation returns
In theory, these do not automatically
follow from higher income or value
With one exception, appreciation
returns for RPI properties were greater
or the same as other properties;
therefore RPI did not dilute
appreciation
The exception was suburban
regeneration properties ; their higher
incomes were unable to sustain their
higher values; this is an example of
how higher income or value doesn’t
necessarily mean higher return
estar-.005* (-0.5%)
regensu-.001
(-0.1%)
regencb-.005* (-0.5%)
transitsu-.003* (-0.3%)
transitcb-.002* (-0.2%)
Income returns
All RPI types had lower income
returns, analogous to lower cap rates
Suggests they were appraised at
higher value per dollar of income due
to expectations of lower risk or faster
future growth
Lowest was Energy Star, consistent
with concerns about future gas and
energy issues
Other lower cap rates suggest
optimism about future redevelopment
and Transit Oriented Development
estar-.005
(-0.05%)
regensu-.021* (-2.1%)
regencb.002
(0.2%)
transitsu.009* (0.9%)
transitcb.002
(0.2%)
Total returns
Total returns are the sum of income
and appreciation returns
With one exception was total returns
for RPI were positive or neutral
The exception was property in
suburban regeneration areas where
stimulus policies may not be effective
The best opportunities appear to be
Suburban Transit Oriented
Development – 13% higher NOI, 16%
higher Value, 1% higher Total Return
per year
Total Return Index for Estar and not Estar
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
Cap
ital
Ind
ex
Estar
Not Estar
Higher NOI and Value does not mean Higher Returns
But returns do not determine feasibility for developers.
If excess costs do not exhaust value premiums, then
projects can be very profitable. Except for suburban
regeneration, value premiums are holding. That bodes
well for the profitability of RPI development.
NOI per SF
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
NO
I p
er S
F
Estar
Not Estar
Study Conclusions
• Executives can invest in RPI with more
confidence it will not dilute returns
• Special RPI portfolios could be created
without added risk or less return
• RPI returns may be insufficient to shift
investors toward RPI; however higher
values could mean higher profits for
developers who could tend toward RPI
WALKABILITY, PROPERTY
VALUES AND INVESTMENT
RETURNS
Study Question
• What are the effects of walkability on
property values and investment
returns?
Methods• Financial data from NCREIF, Walkability
data from Front Seat
• 10,981 office, retail, industrial,
apartments, 1998-2008
• OLS regression models
• Dependent financial variables
– End of quarter market value per square foot (log)
– Annual income return (log of 1 + return)
– Annual appreciation return (log of 1 + return)
– Annual total return (log of 1 + return)
Methods
• Independent control variables
– Regional supply (completions)
– Regional demand (job growth)
– National market (NCREIF index)
– Property (age, size)
– Region
– Environment (crime)
– Government (effective property tax rate)
Walk Score• 0 to 100 index based on distance to desired
destinations (education, retail, food, etc.)
• High score if 1 establishment of each desired
type is within ¼ mile; Low score if greater than 1
mile
• Disadvantages:
– All destinations weighted equally
– Ignores barriers
– No attention to other correlates of walkability
• Advantages:
– Uses best predictor or walking: proximity
– Nationwide coverage
San Marco, Walk Score 80
Normandy Estates, Walkscore 20
All Types
Walk Score™ .004***
cemp123 .075***
sta123 -.026***
npitotret 11.2***
age -.003***
sqft -2.14e-07***
proptaxmsa -.088***
propcrime -9.16e-06***
personsSqMi -5.93e-06**
transitH .33***
ttime -.014***
P type dummies not shown
CBSA dummies not shown
observations 27,320
R-squared 0.33
27,000 observations
(buildings x quarters)
All controls significant
with expected signs
1 unit increase in Walk
Score = 0.4% more
value
Property with 80 Walk
Score would be worth
about 25% more than
one with 20
20% less crime = 1.3%
higher property value
Market
value,
all
types
Office Retail Apartment Industrial
Walk Score™ .005*** .008*** .000 .006***
cemp123 .068*** .026*** .132*** .056***
sta123 -.018*** -.038** -.193*** .011
npitotret 7.97 *** 13.7*** 10.0*** 6.87***
age -.006*** -.0003 .002 -.004***
sqft -7.73e-08*** 1.24e-07*** -1.52e-06*** -1.75e-07***
proptaxmsa -.070*** -.103*** -.029 -.030***
propcrime -.00002*** -.00004*** -.00003*** -.00005***
personsSqMi .00001*** -5.57e-06 -.00001 9.16e-06***
transitH .018 .317*** 1.10*** .056**
ttime -.016*** -.017 .030*** -.012***
stype .045**
CBSA dummies not shown not shown not shown not shown
n 8399 2898 6650 8413
R-squared 0.62 0.63 0.31 0.61
Market value by type
Office
+30%
Retail
+48%
Industrial
+36%
Apts.
Neutral -Disamenity
Effect?
Walk Score™ -.00003
cemp123 .0153***
sta123 -.002**
npitotret 3.91***
age -.0001*
sqft 1.03e-08***
proptaxmsa -.021***
propcrime -6.01e-07**
personssqmi 1.06e-06***
transit .015***
ttime -.0002
Prop type dummies not shown
CBSA dummies not shown
Number of obs 22567
R-squared 0.24
Appreciation returns, all types
Walkable properties did
not appreciate faster
More Demand increases
appreciation, more
Supply reduces it.
Lower appreciation with
higher crime
Faster appreciation near
transit
Office Retail Apartment Industrial
.0004*** -.0005** -.0002 -.00005
Appreciation returns by type
Effects more mixed when viewed by type
More walkability offices appreciated faster, walkable
retail appreciated slower, and walkable apartments and
industrial appreciated the same as less walkable
80 v 20 Walk Score:
Offices: 2.4% faster per year
Retail: 3.0% slower per year
Apartment and Industrial: no difference
Walk Score™ -.0000638***
cemp123 -.001207***
sta123 .000141***
npitotret -.49351***
age -.0000217*
sqft -7.52e-10**
proptaxmsa .0016323***
propcrime 1.47e-07***
personssqmi -3.23e-.08
transit -.001146*
ttime .0001838***
Prop Type dummies not shown
CBSA dummies not shown
Number of obs 22932
R-squared 0.2064
Income returns, all types
Lower by 0.6 basis points
(0.006%) per year for 1+
Walk Score
Equivalent to lower cap
rate; income from walkable
properties was valued
more
80 Walk Score = 0.38%
lower income return per
year than 20 Walk Score
Suggests 25% higher m.v.
is from 20% higher
income & 5% lower cap
rate
Office Retail Apartment Industrial
-.000028 -.00015*** -.000052*** -8.75e-06
Income returns by type
Lower for all types, but only significantly for retail and
apartment
Suggest willingness to pay more due to expectations of
lower risk or faster income growth and appreciation
80 v 20 Walk Score:
Retail: 0.90% lower per year
Apartments: 0.31% lower per year
Office and Industrial: no difference
Office Retail Apartment Industrial
Total
Return
. 0004** -.0006*** -.0002* -.00007
Total returns by type
80 v 20 Walk Score:
Office: 2.4% higher per year (higher AR)
Retail: -3.6% lower per year (lower AR & IR)
Apartments: -1.2% lower per year (lower IR)
Industrial: no difference
Average NCREIF Total Return, 98-08
Office 11.3
Retail 12.1
Apartments 10.8
Industrial 11.3
Results Recap
• Market value more than 25% higher for all types
• Appreciation return higher for office, lower for
retail, neutral for apartments and industrial
• Income return lower for retail and apartments,
neutral for office and industrial
• Total returns higher for office, lower for apartments
and retail, neutral for industrial
Overall ConclusionsRPI is a rapidly developing business strategy seeking triple
bottom line performance
For developers, there can be an RPI property value premium. If
added costs or risks don’t exhaust it, developers could find RPI
more profitable
For investors, RPI can be neutral or positive for returns but
there can be cases of underperformance as well
Potential returns and profits may be insufficient to generate a
substantial shift toward RPI without more supportive regulations
and incentives
Since RPI can produce social and environmental benefits while
fulfilling fiduciary obligations, it would be economically irrational
in social welfare terms and ethically unjustifiable for investors not
to engage in Responsible Property Investing