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RESPONDING TO EMERGING CHALLENGES TO THE CANADIAN SYSTEM OF TOURISM STATISTICS
l d h l b l l lNeil McInnisParks Canada
Scott MeisCTHRC
Judy RogersResearch Resolutions
Michel DubreuilCTC
Denis MartelIndustry Canada
François NaultStatistics Canada
TTRA‐Canada ConferenceR h O Th R d t RResearch On The Road to Recovery
Quebec City, Quebec 13‐15 October, 2010
System of Tourism Statistics ‐What exactly are we talking about?y y g
Travel Survey of R id t f
Quarterly Volume & Ch t i ti
National Tourism Indicators
T i S t llit A tResidents of Canada(TSRC)
Characteristics
Monthly Counts
Tourism Satellite Account
Human Resource Module
International Travel Survey(ITS)
Cities Project
Monthly and
Government Revenue Attributable to Tourism
(ITS)
Supply and Demand
Monthly and Quarterly Reports
Side Surveys
Operating Revenue / Expenses
Why do we have this system?Why do we have this system?
Volume and revenue estimates – fulfilling a variety of needs: performance measurement system of national accounts balance of payments internationalmeasurement, system of national accounts, balance of payments, international reporting ‐ UNWTO
Aid improved public & private industry related decision making for:
•Marketing trip and traveler characteristics•Marketing – trip and traveler characteristics
•Investment, operations and management
•Manpower, education and training
•Advocacy planning and public awareness•Advocacy, planning and public awareness•Facilitate international comparisons for regulatory and other policy, planning and competitive management purposes
•To facilitate pure and applied researchTo facilitate pure and applied research
Why are we talking about this?Why are we talking about this?
Provincial, Territorial Research Working Group (PTTRWG):Provincial, Territorial Research Working Group (PTTRWG):
“PTTRWG recommends that the mandate for national tourism surveys and products generated by Statistics Canada be transferred from CTC to Industry Canada and that, in partnership with the provinces, territories and other key stakeholders, Industry Canada provide adequate funding in order to sustain and improve these surveys and products.” Source: PTTRWG Minutes, June 2010
Canadian Tourism Commission Board Planning Retreat Resolutions, Spring 2010:
“CTC would cede its leadership role in developing and maintaining the Canadian system of tourism statistics” Source: 2011 Strategic Research Plan (Draft) Fall 2010
Panel MembersPanel MembersScott Meis TTRA observer to the Canadian Tourism Commission,
Research Advisory Committee, Special Advisor – Evaluation and Research, CTHRC
Judy Rogers President, Research Resolutions and Consulting Limited
Michel Dubreuil Manager, Market Research, Canadian Tourism Commission
Denis Martel Director, Small Business and Marketplace Services, Small Business and Tourism Branch, Industry Canada
François Nault Director, Tourism and the Centre for Education Statistics Division, Statistics Canada
Format for our Session
Speaker Presentations
Challenge Question – Discussion in 5 groups – with report back
Questions and Answers
What will Canada's Tourism Statistical System look like in 2020?Statistical System look like in 2020?
h i i ill iWhat opportunities will we seize to ensure it's success?
Who will play what roles?
What is the role for TTRA?
RESPONDING TO EMERGINGRESPONDING TO EMERGING CHALLENGES TO THE CANADIAN
SYSTEM OF TOURISM STATISTICS:Overview and Issue Specification
Scott M. MeisScott M. MeisPresident, SMMRA
TTRA-Canada ConferenceResearch On The Road to Recovery
Quebec City, Quebec 13-15 October 201013 15 October, 2010
OVERVIEW 0F TOURISM STATISTICS
• Focus: Statistics – instruments = lenses for viewing tourism realities
• Meaning #1: Systematic quantitative measurements & compilations of populations of phenomena relating to tourism
• Examples:• Volumes• Characteristics• Values• Opinions, attitudes, viewsp , ,
ISSUE: SUPPORT FOR CANADIAN SYSTEM OF TOURISM STATISTICSOF TOURISM STATISTICS
• Government engagement & support recognized since 1920’s • Successive agencies partnered with Statistics Canada • CTC Act made market and industry research a key role• CTC Act made market and industry research a key role • Recent changes in funding & strategic priorities led to
reduced CTC’s support for national STS• C ti d i f t d t th t• Continued erosion of support and engagement threatens
integrity, quality and of the STS• Quality reductions lead to reduce credibility and value to
t k h ld dstakeholders and users
“Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.”doing.
‐‐Warren Buffet
WHAT IS THE SYSTEM OF TOURISM STATISTICS (STS)?
STS)
“That part of the National Statistical System whose aim is to
S S)
That part of the National Statistical System whose aim is to provide the user with reliable, consistent and appropriate statistical information on the socio-economic structure and developments of the tourism phenomenon and which can, indevelopments of the tourism phenomenon and which can, in turn be integrated with all the other economic and social statistics at different territorial levels (state, infra-state, and international).”)
Source: UNWTO(2001)
PRE-1990 VIEWS OF CANADIAN TOURISM DATATOURISM DATA
• A dispersed and disorganized collection of information fragments• No “system” at all! • No credible measures of the core economic phenomena:
Tourism consumption– Tourism consumption– Tourism products – Tourism industries
• No core source of data on articulation of tourism markets & industries• No credible measures of the economic role and significance of tourism
in the national economy• No overview the whole of tourism• “The whole is less than the sum of its parts” Martin Wilke,1985p ,
Source: NTFTD (1989)
WHAT ARE TOURISM’SSTATISTICAL DATA NEEDS
• National “macro” level data to establish the economic and social significance of tourism
• Macro regional data as well to assess and assist regional development policies
• National data relating to specific policy developments
• National data relating to sector & industry strategic plans
• “Micro” data on specific market places & operations of firms
• Local data on the strength of attractions and local tourism activities at specific destinations
Source: NTFTD, 1989
STS SCOPE AND COVERAGE
FUNCTIONS i f t ti ti l f ti i l di
STS SCOPE AND COVERAGE
FUNCTIONS -- series of statistical functions including:
• Technical data tasks and processes
• Organization and legal structure of the institutional units
• Administrative mechanisms and established linksAdministrative mechanisms and established links between units and a central statistical organization
• Statutory and non-statutory nature of statistical sources and administrative controls generating information usedand administrative controls generating information used for statistical purposes
• Human and material resources assigned to technical and u a a d ate a esou ces ass g ed to tec ca a dadministrative tasks
Source: Adapted from Massieu, 2001
STS STRUCTURE
ELEMENTS:
STS STRUCTURE
ELEMENTS:
• Statistical Sources: Travel surveys, household resident surveys, business data, systemic syntheses (IO, BOP, SNA) d i i t ti d t tSNA), administrative data, etc.
• Methodological references: Concepts, classifications, methods and proceduresmethods and procedures
• Instrumental means available: Collection, storage, dissemination and application of the obtained data
Source: Adapted from Massieu, 2001
MULTIPLE GEOGRAPHICAL VIEWS7 Geographical levels
• International levelsInternational levels
• National destination level
• P i d ti ti l l• Province destination level
• Tourism region destination level
• Census division destination level
• Major Metropolitan destination level
• Minor destination level
I t O t tTransportation
CSTS INFORMATION SYSTEM
Survey of
Input Output System
Accommodation
TransportationSurveys
System ofHousehold Spending
Travel Survey ofFood and
AccommodationSurveys
yNational Accounts
Balance of Payments
Canadian
Travel Survey of Resident
Canadians
I t ti l
Food and Beverage Surveys
Reconciliation Process
Recreation &Entertainment
Surveys
Canadian TourismSatellite Account
InternationalTravel Survey
5 Demand SurveysTravel Arrangements
Services Survey
15 Supply Surveys Tax information Labour & Other Information
Source: Adapted from CTSA Handbook, 2007
MULTIPLE LAYERS OF DATAMULTIPLE LAYERS OF DATA
Multi-layered Vision
AgentsOpinions/Attitudes
Person/trip/business
Characteristics
Volumetrics
Financial Values
Volumetrics
Source: NTFTD, 1989
TSA EXTENSIONS: SIX RELATED COMPONENTS/MODULESRELATED COMPONENTS/MODULES
TourismGovernment
Revenues
Provincial & Territorial
TSA(1998)
Tourism Human Resource
Module (1997-2009)
Revenues Attributableto Tourism
(annual, 2009)
Canadian
Pilot project on Tourism Environment
Indicators
Tourism SatelliteAccount
(biennial, 2002) National
Tourism Indicators
Pilot/feasibilityProject on Investment
2009
(ad hoc, 2006)(quarterly, 2010, Q2)
2009
MULTIPLE EMERGING ISSUES:
• Roles & partnership – eroding social equity
• Sustaining and developmental funding requirements & donor fatigue
• Data quality – reliability, consistency, validity
• Integrity, credibility
• Data coverage/gaps
• Coherence -
THREATS: LEADERSHIP
• Provincial, Territorial Research Working Group (PTTRWG) June 23, 2010:
“PTTRWG recommends that the mandate for national tourism surveys andPTTRWG recommends that the mandate for national tourism surveys and products generated by Statistics Canada be transferred from CTC to Industry Canada and that, in partnership with the provinces, territories and other key stakeholders, Industry Canada provide adequate funding in order to sustain and improve these surveys and products.”
Source: PTTRWG Minutes, June 201
• Canadian Tourism Commission Board Planning Retreat Resolutions Spring 2010:Canadian Tourism Commission Board Planning Retreat Resolutions, Spring, 2010:
“CTC would cede its leadership role in developing and maintaining the Canadian system of tourism statistics”
Source: 2011 Strategic Research Plan (Draft) Fall 2010
THREATS: FUNDING
• Ongoing: Annual shared funding budget requirements:- Over $10 million per year, - More than 70% paid from Statistics Canada’s core budgetp g
•1995 -2006: Inter-institutional partnership cost sharing target– After STC, 50% CTC: 50% all other partners
• 2007: CTC support for the Accommodation Survey ended- Support for Travel Arrangements Survey also ended
• 2008-2009: CTC support for the Travel Survey of Residents of Canada reduced• 2009: CTC support for the Business Conditions Survey was cut2009: CTC support for the Business Conditions Survey was cut• 2008-10: Investment in improvements of specific components broadens
- Includes other partners e.g. CTHRC, Industry Canada, new provincial partners
• 2009-10: Recent projects to improve ITS continue to be funded by the traditional partners
THREATS: DATA QUALITY
Methodological changes and instrument changes can lead to series breaksSmaller sample frames in response to funding issues Smaller sample frames in response to funding issues
Reduced content coverage Response rates continue to decline p More reliance on administrative data
CHALLENGES FACING ALL STATISTICAL SYSTEMSSYSTEMS
• Relevance• Funding• Data availability• Data availability• Credibility• Too Technical • Timeliness • Data revisions• Another set of estimates!• Inability to answer all questions
• Inability to satisfy all needs
REVIEW
• The Canadian System of Tourism Statistics continues to be one of the most comprehensive and robust national tourism information systemsand robust national tourism information systems
• The tourism data system is also one of the largest and most comprehensive for all industry groups within the Canadian national statistical system
• Th d t t f th CSTS ti t d d t l d d• The scope and structure of the CSTS continues to depend to a large degree on user needs and data availability and to a lesser degree on user engagement and resource capabilities
• The CSTS is robust enough that it can contract, as needs and resources change, without compromising the overall integrity of the system – no single survey compromises the overall systemsystem
• The CSTS, like the core SNA, can also continue to be expanded to address various needs (timeliness, frequency, regional, human resources, etc)
• A ti i d t l d hi d t ll ib t t hi t k• Active industry leadership and engagement as well as vibrant partnership network are essential to the continued maintenance and refinement of the system
Responding to Emerging Challenges to the CanadianChallenges to the Canadian System of Tourism Statistics
Research Resolutions & Consulting Ltd.
2010 TTRA Canada National Conference Québec City2010 TTRA Canada National Conference, Québec City
October 2010
Common questionsCommon questions How much is tourism worth?
Better to build a pulp mill or ecolodge? More jobs?
Hi h t ROI? Highest ROI?
How many tourists come? Who are they? Who are they? What do they do / want to do? How satisfied are they?o sat s ed a e t ey
What does the future hold? Which markets are growing/shrinking?
Common questionsCommon questions Do we need more
runways? highways? hotel or resort rooms?
AdvertisingWh h ld I d ti ? Where should I advertise?
How should I advertise? What should my message be? What should my message be?
Common elementsCommon elements High quality counting High quality capture of tourist behaviour More than a snapshot
trend data, tracking studies
Wh t if d ’t t it i ht?What if we don’t get it right? Loss of confidence in research
Conflicting estimates Perpetual “revisions” Long time lags
Poor decisionsk d l Markets stagnate or decline
Less performance-based evidence to justify product development and marketing spendingproduct development and marketing spending The vicious cycle perpetuates
D t lit h llData quality challenges Many examples
International Travel Survey (ITS) (today) Travel Survey of Residents of Canada (TSRC)
What you don’t know CAN hurt you
ITSFrontier counts by CBSA Frontier counts by CBSA (Canadian Border Securities Agency)
Good counting
Distribution of q’aires by CBSA staffDistribution of q aires by CBSA staff Deteriorating, especially at land ports
Niagara Falls, Pacific Highway, Windsor
D t lit h d dData quality has eroded In 2008, 46,400 questionnaires from non-
resident travellers and 51,800 questionnaires completed by resident travellers were used to produce estimates St ti ti C dproduce estimates. Statistics Canada
That’s true but most were not completed in 2008.
63% f ’ i i t d63% of q’aires were imputed
61,500 of 98,200 q’aires for 2008 were brought forward from previous years same quarter, entry, origin, s-day or o’night some as far back as the ’90s
some eplicated m ltiple times some replicated multiple times no inflation adjustments
Scale of imputation found in ‘08 audit
Wh t h k!What a shock! STC & provincial/national users surprised &
concerned
How did it happen – the Big picture? CBSA in post 9-11 era No funds from tourism partners for improvement No funds from tourism partners for improvement
How did it happen – the little picture? Turnover in staff Too much trust by users Documentation too limited
Old s ne eco ds not identified in a dit file Old vs. new records not identified in audit file
R di t th i l lRemedies at the micro level ITS Working Group considering options
Revisions present major methodological challenge
Key jurisdictions contributing money to improve estimates at major land ports improve estimates at major land ports
US air exit survey being proposed US air exit survey being proposed
R di t l lRemedies at macro level Money
More staff at STC to monitor study More tools to improve data capture
Transparency More documentation from supplier
M ti f l t More cautions from analysts
CommunicationRead methodological documentation (boring as Read methodological documentation (boring as it is)
Train the next generation of analysts/users g y /about possible pitfalls
Wh t d d i th ti ?What do we do in the meantime? Recite the mantra
It is the best information we have
Advise users In the case of ITS
“Counts” are okayCharacteristics including activities lodging Characteristics, including activities, lodging, spending: use with caution
Work on knowledge transfer From one generation to the next
Remember what happens if we don’t t it i htget it right
Loss of confidence in research Poor decisions Markets stagnate or decline Less performance-based evidence to support
investment The vicious cycle perpetuates
This is a series we WANT to break!
CTC St t 2015CTC Strategy 2015: New directions to reclaim growthTTRA, Québec, October 14, 2010
CTC Board Retreat Resolutions (Spring, 2010)
1. CTC is to pursue efficiencies by rationalizing costs at headquarters and its international footprint
2. CTC is to focus predominantly on the potential of highest yield international markets, where Canada’s tourism b d h d t i t i d t ti l f thbrand had most impact, meaning and potential for the tourism industry;
3 CTC i t t th t th G t f C d3. CTC is to request that the Government of Canada assumes the tourism statistical role
Who we are Federal Crown corporation since 2001
Headquartered in Vancouver Headquartered in Vancouver
Canada’s national tourism marketing organization
Our vision
Currently marketing in 12 countries around the world
Our visionInspire the world to explore Canada.
Our missionOur missionHarness Canada’s collective voice to grow export revenues.
Our valuesInnovation, Collaboration, Respect
CTC mandate
G ti lth f C di b Generating wealth for Canadians by stimulating demand for Canada’s visitor economyeconomy.
We do this through effective tourism marketing and promotions supported by li d k t haligned market research.
2009 results
$1.66 billion in attributable tourism revenue.
Maintenance and/or creation of an estimated 15,284 jobs.
$228.7 million in attributable federal tax revenues.
2009 awards CTC was named ‘2009 Marketer of the Year’
by Marketing Magazine
Canada was named the number 2 country brand in the world by FutureBrand in 2009 y(we were #2 in 2008, #6 in 2007, and #12 in 2006)
Forbes.com named our LOCALS KNOWForbes.com named our LOCALS KNOW campaign one of the world’s top 10 ad campaigns of all time
Evolving Trends Emerging economies are continuing to invest in
tourism and “place” marketing even as some mature economies may be forced to scale back.
Business continues to increase from new sourcesBusiness continues to increase from new sources (e.g. China, India, Brazil, International MC&IT), representing new opportunities for Canada.
Consumer travel tastes/trends continue to refine.
Traditional distribution channels continue to be disrupted.
Increasing well funded Canadian marketing partners.
CTC needs to adapt to a new fiscal environment
CTC was created in 2001 and initially funded to be a full-i ti l t i k ti i ti b t iservice national tourism marketing organization, but is
no longer resourced for this.
Budget 2010 announced that budgets for Crown corporations would be frozen at current levels until 2013.corporations would be frozen at current levels until 2013.
5% cut to CTC core budget resulting from Strategic g g greview process
CTC’s business model must evolve to remain effective.
CTC funding levels 2001-2012
1) Shift to a focus on roles)
Where Canada brand leads and there is alignment of partners with CTC, CTC will invest forcefully.
Canada will be resourced to compete in high yield Canada will be resourced to compete in high-yield international source markets.
In the U.S. Leisure market, where there is non-alignment as to whose brand will lead, CTC will cede l d hileadership.
CTC will stay invested in the U S marketplace in: CTC will stay invested in the U.S. marketplace in: Media and Public Relations, Social Media and MC&IT.
2) A leaner, scalable operation) , p Our operational footprint, both at our headquarters and
internationally will evolve to be leaner and scalableinternationally will evolve to be leaner and scalable.
Introduction of two Regional Offices:• Traditional markets• Emerging/transition markets
Partnership in the form of co-location with provincial marketing organizations where we do have a presence to reduce redundant overheadsreduce redundant overheads.
Drive to reduce complexity out of the organization.
Governance renewal: smaller, skills-based Board.
Controllable cost & complexity drivers
Before Strategic Shift: After Strategic Shift:
13 leased offices (+1 sublet) in 10 countries
5 leased offices in 4 countries
E l i 7 t i Employees in 10 countries
Employees in 7 countries
118 employees worldwide: 164 employees worldwide*:
• 102 in Canada • 62 in 9 other countries
90 in Canada 28 in 6 other countries
GSA/contractors in 3 countries Brazil India UK
GSA/contractors in 6 countries Brazil, India, UK, France, Germany AustraliaBrazil, India, UK
* Structure as at March 1, 2010
Germany, Australia
Controllable cost & complexity drivers
Before Strategic Shift: After Strategic Shift:
8 members of Senior Management Committee*
6 members of Senior Management Committee
22 members of Management Committee*: 12 Executive Directors in
14 members of Management Committee: 9 Executive Directors in
Canada 10 Managing Directors in-market
Canada 5 Managing Directors in-
market 10 payroll providers and labour
relations legislations around the world
7 payroll providers and labour relations legislations around the world
* Structure as at March 1, 2010world
Transfer leadership role for tourism statistics to the Governmentstatistics to the Government
Canadian system of tourism statistics is a source of essential and important of information to the CTC p
CTC is to engage discussions with the Government requesting the transfer of its leadership role for maintaining & developing surveys and CTSA products.
o To be discussed in Q4 2010 and into 2011
Looking ahead – Business as usual g
2011 Core program: CTC is fully resourced to maintain its commitments with core surveys (ITS, TSRC) and CTSA related products (CTSA 2006, NTI).
Improvements: o ITS - Land port questionnaires distribution & E311 p q
data captureo HRM quarterly estimateso Others – NTI MC&IT estimates, PTI
Th kThank youMerci
Michel DubreuilResearch Manager
Canadian Tourism Commission
Tel: 604.638.8331Email: [email protected]
Views from Statistics Canada
Responding to Emerging Challenges to the Canadian System of Tourism StatisticsCanadian System of Tourism Statistics
TTRA-Canada Conference
F i N ltFrançois Nault
October 14, 2010 – Québec, Québec
T l S f R id t f C d (TSRC)Travel Survey of Residents of Canada (TSRC) Conducted as a supplement of the Labour Force Survey (LFS)
Very efficient because it benefits from all the LFS operations Very efficient because it benefits from all the LFS operations
In 2009, due to financial and other constraints, the TSRC was restricted to one LFS “rotation group” instead of two, which
d i i l b h lfamounted to cutting its sample by half.
Working with the tourism partners, the TSRC was redesigned to compensate for this halving of its samplecompensate for this halving of its sample.
Starting February 2011, this redesigned TSRC will be launched with: Two-month recall period instead of one;p ; Trip roster and sub-sampling New question on trip purpose (business vs personal travel) Production of files pooling two years of data (special request) Improved production system
2
I t ti l T l S (ITS)International Travel Survey (ITS) Mix of administrative and questionnaire data:
Land: Counts from Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) (port Land: Counts from Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) (port of entry, mode of transportation, duration of stay and State of origin) + questionnaire information (purpose, spending, activities).
Air: E311 cards (purpose duration) and questionnaires Air: E311 cards (purpose, duration) and questionnaires (spending, activity, visited country for Canadians). In the five main international airports STC interviewers conduct personal interviews with a sample of travellers from four main overseas markets We are considering to do the same for the USmarkets. We are considering to do the same for the US.
Main issue is the lack of distribution of the questionnaires by CBSA agents particularly in large land ports. This explains:g p y g p p The too high level of imputation The STC interviewers in five airports Efforts to control biases in the returned questionnaires on port of
t d St t f i i (l d) d d ti ( i )entry and State of origin (land), purpose and duration (air).
3
I t ti l T l S (ITS)International Travel Survey (ITS) What can be done?
In 2010: with the support of tourism partners STC interviewers In 2010: with the support of tourism partners, STC interviewers were sent to key land borders to distribute questionnaires. Is it sustainable?
STC has re-instated an outreach program to sensitise directly border agents on the importance of the information for macro-economic policies and the tourism industry.
Facilitate the distribution: Consolidation of questionnaires Bookmarks and internet
Collaboration with U.S. Office of Travel and Tourism Industries.
Alternative approach to derive the questionnaire information: credit card information?
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