responding to drought (and other) conditions on the colorado river urban water institute’s 21 st...
TRANSCRIPT
Responding to Drought (and other) Conditions on the Colorado River
Urban Water Institute’s 21st Annual ConferenceAugust 14, 2014
Natural FlowColorado River at Lees Ferry Gaging Station, Arizona
Water Year 1906 to 2014
State of the System (Water Years 1999-2014)1
109%
62% 59%
25%
52% 49%
104%
71% 70%
102%88%
73%
139%
45% 47%
94%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
Pe
rce
nt C
ap
ac
ityV
olu
me
in M
AF
End of Water Year
Unregulated Inflow into Lake PowellPowell-Mead Storage and Percent Capacity
Powell and Mead Storage (MAF) Unregulated Inflow into Powell (MAF) Powell and Mead Percent Capacity2
1 Values for Water Year 2014 are projected. Unregulated inflow is based on the CBRFC forecast dated 8/1/14. Storage and percent capacity are based on the July 2014 24-Month Study.
2 Percentages at the top of the light blue bars represent percent of average unregulated inflow into Lake Powell for a given water year. Water years 1999-2011 are based on the 30-year average from 1971 to 2000. Water years 2012-2014 are based on the 30-year average from 1981-2010.
Water Year Snowpack and Precipitationas of August 11, 2014
Colorado River Basin above Lake Powell
Water Year 2014
Precipitation
(year-to-date)
99% of average
Current Snowpack
NA
Chart developed with SNOTEL data as of
August 11, 2014Snowpack peaked at 111%on April 7, 2014
Basin StorageAs of
8/3/2014
52%67%
80%
88%
100%
5
ReservoirA-J Inflow Forecast
(KAF)
Percent of Average1
Fontenelle 1,020 141%
Flaming Gorge 1,159 118%
Blue Mesa 849 126%
Navajo 428 58%
Powell 6,923 97%
April to July Observed Unregulated Inflow
(Issued August 1)
Upper Basin Storage
1 1981-2010 period
http://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/basin/tc_cr.html
Colorado River Basin Storage (as of August 10, 2014)
Current Storage Percent Full MAF Elevation
(Feet)
Lake Powell 51% 12.49 3,608
Lake Mead 38% 10.03 1,080
Total System Storage* 51% 30.40 NA
*Total system storage was 30.10 maf or 50% this time last year
1,000
1,025
1,050
1,075
1,100
1,125
1,150
1,175
1,200
1,225
Ele
vati
on
(ft
)
January 1937 - July 2014
Lake Mead End of Month Elevation
Spillway Crest 1221 ft
July 201439% of Capacity
September 199995% of Capacity
Lake Mead is currently at its lowest elevation of 1,080.60 feet since it was first filled inthe 1930s.
Lake Mead's previous lowest elevation since filling was 1,081.85 feet in November 2010.
During the 1950s drought, Mead reached a low of 1,083.23 feet in April 1956.
Spillway Crest 1221 ft
Water Budget at Lake Mead
Given basic apportionments in the Lower Basin, the allotment to Mexico, and an 8.23 maf release from Lake Powell, Lake Mead storage declines
Inflow = 9.0 maf(release from Powell + side inflows)
Outflow = - 9.6 maf (AZ, CA, NV, and Mexico delivery + downstream regulation and gains/losses) Mead evaporation loss = - 0.6 maf Balance = - 1.2 maf
Data based on long-term averages
State of the System (Water Years 1999-2014)1
109%
62% 59%
25%
52% 49%
104%
71% 70%
102%88%
73%
139%
45% 47%
94%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
Pe
rce
nt C
ap
ac
ityV
olu
me
in M
AF
End of Water Year
Unregulated Inflow into Lake PowellPowell-Mead Storage and Percent Capacity
Powell and Mead Storage (MAF) Unregulated Inflow into Powell (MAF) Powell and Mead Percent Capacity2
1 Values for Water Year 2014 are projected. Unregulated inflow is based on the CBRFC forecast dated 8/1/14. Storage and percent capacity are based on the July 2014 24-Month Study.
2 Percentages at the top of the light blue bars represent percent of average unregulated inflow into Lake Powell for a given water year. Water years 1999-2011 are based on the 30-year average from 1971 to 2000. Water years 2012-2014 are based on the 30-year average from 1981-2010.
State of the System (Water Years 1999-2014)1
109%
62% 59%
25%
52% 49%
104%
71% 70%
102%88%
73%
139%
45% 47%
94%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
Pe
rce
nt C
ap
ac
ityV
olu
me
in M
AF
End of Water Year
Unregulated Inflow into Lake PowellPowell-Mead Storage and Percent Capacity
Powell and Mead Storage (MAF) Unregulated Inflow into Powell (MAF) Powell and Mead Percent Capacity2
1 Values for Water Year 2014 are projected. Unregulated inflow is based on the CBRFC forecast dated 8/1/14. Storage and percent capacity are based on the July 2014 24-Month Study.
2 Percentages at the top of the light blue bars represent percent of average unregulated inflow into Lake Powell for a given water year. Water years 1999-2011 are based on the 30-year average from 1971 to 2000. Water years 2012-2014 are based on the 30-year average from 1981-2010.
QSA-RELATED WATER TRANSFERS
CALIFORNIA
IID to MWD:Up to 110,000 af/yr
IID to Salton Sea Mitigation:Up to 150,000 af/yr through 2017
IID to CVWD:Up to 103,000 af/yr
IID&CVWD to SLR:Up to 16,000 af/yr
IID to SDCWA: Up to 200,000 af/yr +56,200 af/yr from AAC Lining
CVWD to SDCWA: 21,500 af/yr from CCLP
LOWER COLORADO RIVER MSCP PURPOSE
Multi-stakeholder Federal and non-Federal partnership responding to the need to balance the use of lower Colorado River (LCR) water resources and the conservation of native species and their habitats in compliance with the Endangered Species Act.
Interim Guidelines for Operation of Lake Powell and Lake Mead
• In place for an interim period (through 2026)
• Key provisions:– Operation for Lake Powell and Lake
Mead is specified throughout the full range of operation
– Strategy for shortages in the Lower Basin is specified, including a provision for additional shortages if warranted
– Mechanism (Intentionally Created Surplus or ICS) is established to encourage efficient and flexible water use in the Lower Basin
Lake Powell & Lake MeadOperational Diagrams and Current Conditions
8/10/14
1,080
8/10/14
10.03
8/10/14
3,608 12.498/10/14
Minute 319• 5-year interim bi-national
agreement
• Promotes sharing, conserving and storing water
• Demonstrates shared commitment to cooperation and partnership
• Components include:– Ability to defer delivery of
water/ICMA – High/low reservoir operation– Water for the Environment-
ICMA->ICS Exchange Pilot– Study of future joint projects
November 20, 2012 Signing Ceremony
Projected Future Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand
State of the System (Water Years 1999-2014)1
109%
62% 59%
25%
52% 49%
104%
71% 70%
102%88%
73%
139%
45% 47%
94%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
Pe
rce
nt C
ap
ac
ityV
olu
me
in M
AF
End of Water Year
Unregulated Inflow into Lake PowellPowell-Mead Storage and Percent Capacity
Powell and Mead Storage (MAF) Unregulated Inflow into Powell (MAF) Powell and Mead Percent Capacity2
1 Values for Water Year 2014 are projected. Unregulated inflow is based on the CBRFC forecast dated 8/1/14. Storage and percent capacity are based on the July 2014 24-Month Study.
2 Percentages at the top of the light blue bars represent percent of average unregulated inflow into Lake Powell for a given water year. Water years 1999-2011 are based on the 30-year average from 1971 to 2000. Water years 2012-2014 are based on the 30-year average from 1981-2010.
Lower SNWA Intake1,000 ft
1,080 ft 10.03 maf(38% of Live Capacity)
895 ft Dead Pool Elevation
Lake Mead Capacity1,219.6 ft 26.1 maf
Dead Pool (2.5 maf)
Inactive Pool (7.7 maf)
Not to scale
140 ft
As of Aug 10, 2014
1,145 ft
30 ft1,075 ftShortage Conditions
1,050 ft
Surplus Conditions
Normal or ICS Surplus Conditions
Min PowerPool
16.2 maf
Risk
• Risk can be viewed as the chance (or probability) an event will occur times the consequence if the event does occur risk = chance X consequence
• To quantify the risk of an event: Must assess the chance Must assess the consequence
• Dealing with risk Determine what risks need to be mitigated (i.e., what is
our tolerance of the assessed risk?) Determine activities/actions that will mitigate those risks Update as the future unfolds
2008 start, observed hydrology (FEIS)
Mead Elevation < 1,000 feet msl
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20260%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008 Start, Observed Hydrology (Basin States Alternative from 2007 FEIS)
2015 Start, Observed Hydrology
2015 Start, Climate Change Hydrology
Drought Contingency Planning
Responding to Drought (and other) Conditions on the Colorado River