resource planners’ forum crepc/spsc
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Resource Planners’ Forum CREPC/SPSC. Risk-aware Regulation and the Modern Utility Ron Binz, Public Policy Consulting October 4, 2012 • San Diego. Ron Binz Public Policy Consulting Center for the New Energy Economy, Colorado State University Former Chairman Colorado PUC - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Resource Planners’ Forum CREPC/SPSC
Risk-aware Regulation and the Modern Utility
Ron Binz, Public Policy Consulting
October 4, 2012 • San Diego
Ron Binz•Public Policy Consulting•Center for the New Energy Economy, Colorado State University•Former Chairman Colorado PUC•Former Colorado Consumer Counsel•M.A. (Mathematics) University of Colorado; B.A. (Philosophy) St. Louis University•Makes wine, beer, cheese and pickles
• Authors– Ron Binz– Richard Sedano– Denise Furey– Dan Mullen
Available at www.ceres.org
High Stakes• The US electric industry is entering a “build cycle” with much higher
investment than in recent history– Brattle Group estimates $2 trillion by 2030
• Causes– Aging infrastructure– New transmission requirements– Demand side and smart grid – Much stronger air and water regulation, including GHGs– Fuel economics
• Challenges to utilities– Flat load growth– Distributed generation– Uncertain economy– Financial metrics less forgiving than in 1980s
The US generation fleet is aging
US Electric IOUs Rating History1970 – 2010
4%
22%
46%
27%
1%
Source: Standard & Poor’s, Macquarie Capital
AA
AA AAAA
A
AA
AA
BBBBBB BBB
BBB
BBB-
The Key Question for Utilities and Their Regulators
How do we ensure that $2 trillion is spent wisely?
With incentives
No incentives
CO2 costs
Notes
•Unadjusted 2010 cost estimates were used for consistency
•Costs for wind and photovoltaics have fallen sharply in last two years (faster than these 2010 estimates)
•Cost of nuclear power has risen post-Fukushima (more than these 2010 estimates)
A Catalog of Investment Risk• Cost-related
– Construction cost overruns– Capital availability– Operational surprises– Fuel cost escalation– “Bet the company” investments– Management imprudence– Resources limited– Consumer reaction to rates
• Time-related– Construction delays– Changing markets– Environmental regulations– Changes in load– Technology advancement– Catastrophe– Contingent projects – Government policies
Seven categories of risk used in scoring…• Construction cost• Fuel and Operating cost• New Regulations• Carbon Price• Water Constraints• Capital Shock• Planning
Cost Risk
Risk Aware Planning at the Tennessee Valley Authority
Seven Essential Strategies for Risk-Aware Regulation
• Diversify utility supply• Utilize robust planning processes• Employ transparent ratemaking practice• Use financial and physical hedges• Hold utilities accountable• Practice active, “legislative” regulation• Reform, re-invent ratemaking policies
Rewards for Sound Decision-making
• For consumers: keep more $$, quality• For utilities: corporate health, predictability• For investors: safety, value, expectations• For employees: safety and welfare, pride• For the regulatory process: public confidence• For society: spending precious capital wisely
• Foundation funded• Run by two former Colorado regulators
named Ron
• Advised by board of experts• Goal: to explore new business models
and advocate new regulatory models to enable new utility business models to evolve.
Utilities 2020
• Methods:– Interviews with utility CEOs and leading
states regulators– Evaluations of other systems here and
abroad– Dialogues with utility execs and
commissioners
• CEOs want a clearer, more consistent direction from state energy policies
• Utilities have little incentive for innovation, firm level efficiency
• Commissions need a better understanding of the utility business and its needs
• Utilities want certainty on climate policy• Utilities want healthier working relationships with
commissioners and staff
What we’ve heard from utility CEOs:
• A primary concern is with increasing utility rates• Regulators are open to modifying the regulatory
model; looking for ideas• Some commissioners are dissatisfied with the
adversarial process• Many commissioners face severe barriers to
communications with stakeholders, and even fellow commissioners
• Commissions have inadequate resources
What we’ve heard from commissioners:
Conclusions• Operating and regulating utilities will get more challenging.• Affirmative risk management can help avoid expensive mistakes.• The utility business model is changing; regulation must also change.• Investors are more vulnerable in this build cycle.• Risk shifting is not risk minimization; not all “credit positive” cost
recovery mechanisms are sustainable policies.• Energy efficiency performs well in risk-aware regulation.• Regulators should be more than judges; they must also operate in
“legislative mode.”• Regulators should strive to be informed, active, consistent, curious
and courageous.
I look forward to your questions.
Thanks for the invitation