resource justice growth and economic development are scarce goods multipolar world the cards of...
TRANSCRIPT
Resource JusticeGrowth and economic
development are scarce goods
Multipolar WorldThe cards of global power are
being reshuffled
Demographic ChangeThe North-South dichotomy
is gradually dissolving
Economic JusticeThe arithmetic of “Inclusive
Growth” does not add up
Climate JusticeThe widening gap between
cause and effect
Global GovernanceWhat the global community
is doing
“Global Transformation”Facts in 6 x 11 Figures
… fundamental transformation towardsmore sustainable modes of productionand consumption (Markard et al. 2012)
Transformation can be induced byniche innovations putting pressure
on the regime level (Mersmann 2010)
… is often “the result of many unlike processes “
(Loorbach & Rotmans 2005)
… fundamental shift … that includesguidance and visions for a sustainable future
(Mersmann 2010)
Few changes are truly transformational(Mersmann 2010)
While all transformations are changenot all change is transformational(Daszko & Sheinberg, 2005)
Transformation is the creation andchange of a whole new form, functionor structure (Daszko & Sheinberg 2005)
To transform is to create something new(Daszko & Sheinberg 2005)
Transformation is motivated by survival(Daszko & Sheinberg 2005)
Challenging assumption ..and paradigms... is at the heart of transformation
(Daszko & Sheinberg 2005)
In transformation there is no known destination(Daszko & Sheinberg 2005)
It is not a new way to do business(Daszko & Sheinberg 2005)
It is a new way to develop thinkingabout how to think
(Daszko & Sheinberg 2005)
There is no transformed organisationbecause transformation is ongoing
(Ruiz 1997)
Without intention, transformation will be reduced to change
(Daszko & Sheinberg 2005)
Transformational change … occur when theexisting set of ideas that create order and
stability no longer work (Middletown 2007)
Transformational change does not address <economic> failures … <but> uses these failings
to argue for fundamental change (Middletown 2007)
Transformation is an approach, a philosophy and a methodology
(Glass 2010)
<in transformation> the future stateis unknown when you begin
(Anderson 2011)
Change fixes the past. Transformation creates the future.
(theprimes.com/)
Transformational change means you can’t go back
(imaworldwide.com)
<the Great transformation> very much depends on ‘organising the unplannable’
(WBGU 2011)
Transformational process
Transformational policies
Transformative learning
Transformational development
Transformational change
Transformative researchStructural transformation
Low carbon transformation
Transformation of a sector
Transformation education
Transformation of a whole economy
Transformation research
Transformative education
Transformation knowledgeTransformative thinking
Transformative action
Transforming Practice Transforming cities
Transforming cultures
Transforming hopeTransforming freedom
Conflict transformation
Transformative justice
Transformative shifts
«Ours is a colourful and diversified world
It is also a complex one»Li Peng
Multipolar WorldThe cards of global power are being reshuffled
Multipolar World: The cards of global power are being reshuffled
Measured in terms of GDP, the recent economic crises have hit the industrialized economies the hardest ….
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2012/06/jahan.htm
1
Multipolar World: The cards of global power are being reshuffled
… though producing not only losers but also winners, as recent statistics from the USA demonstrate2
https://rwer.wordpress.com/category/the-economy/inequality/
Multipolar World: The cards of global power are being reshuffled
Emerging and developing economies already make up more than 50 percent of global GDP …
http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2013/120513.htm
3
Multipolar World: The cards of global power are being reshuffled
… China, Brazil and India alone generate almost one third of global economic output – not for the first time in history
http://www.un-ngls.org/spip.php?page=article_s&id_article=4260
4
Source: Human Development Report 2013
Multipolar World: The cards of global power are being reshuffled
The share of world merchandise trade is nearly equalbetween the Northern and Southern hemisphere nations5
http://www.economist.com/node/21528591
Multipolar World: The cards of global power are being reshuffled
Already in 2020, there will be at least five emerging economies in the world’s top ten economies6
http://blog.euromonitor.com/2010/07/special-report-top-10-largest-economies-in-2020.html
Source: Human Development Report 2013
Multipolar World: The cards of global power are being reshuffled
China is the largest trading partner of the poorest countriesin the Global South, with a rising trend7
http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/international/2013-12-11/5-questions-answered-on-why-the-g20-is-a-big-deal/1230564
Multipolar World: The cards of global power are being reshuffled
More and more, the “Group of Twenty” (G20) is metamorphosing into a sort of world government 8
Multipolar World: The cards of global power are being reshuffled
The number of autocratic states has declined, but there is a worrying rise in the number of anocracies (weak states)9
http://www.systemicpeace.org/conflict.htm
Multipolar World: The cards of global power are being reshuffled
Despite the advance of democracy, the legal and policyspaces for civil society are shrinking worldwide10
http://www.freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/Policy%20Brief%20-%20%20Resisting%20the%20Global%20Crackdown%20on%20Civil%20Society%20-%
207-11-13.pdf
Multipolar World: The cards of global power are being reshuffled
The revenues of the top 500 multinationals are estimated at 50% of World GDP; Google alone is as “rich” as the 28 poorest countries11
http://2thetopdesign.com/how-much-is-google-worth-2010-revenue-stats/
Demographic changeThe North-South dichotomy is dissolving
“Today in the era of globalization there is no such issue as borders between states of the
same nation.”Fatos Nano
Demographic Change: The North-South dichotomy is gradually dissolving
Today, four out of five world citizens livein the Global South, and every second in South-East Asia1
http://www.visguy.com/2009/10/01/village-of-100-people-diagrams/ http://waitbutwhy.com/2013/08/what-if-all-71-billion-people-moved-to.html
Demographic Change: The North-South dichotomy is gradually dissolving
World population will continue to grow considerably, but more slowly than in the recent past2
http://www.economist.com/node/14743589 http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2006/09/picture.htm
Demographic Change: The North-South dichotomy is gradually dissolving
Since 2007, and for the first time, more people have been living in urban than in rural areas, and the trend towards urbanisation will
continue
3
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/WUP2005/2005wup.htm
Demographic Change: The North-South dichotomy is gradually dissolving
The reality of aging societies will increasinglyaffect the southern hemisphere too.4
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2006/09/picture.htm
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2006/09/picture.htm
Demographic Change: The North-South dichotomy is gradually dissolving
Political and economic discrimination against women is a worldwide phenomenon and not just a development issue5
https://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/products/Worldswomen/wwPoweranddec2010.htm
Source: World Development Report 2012 p. 200
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTNWDR2013/Resources/8258024-1320950747192/8260293-1322665883147/WDR_2013_Report.pdf
Demographic Change: The North-South dichotomy is gradually dissolving
Since 1995, the number of jobs has increased continuously, but so too has the number of people without employment
6
Source: IMF, Finance and development March 2006
Demographic Change: The North-South dichotomy is gradually dissolving
Youth without paid employment is increasingly becoming a challenge for developed societies7
http://www.economist.com/news/international/21576657-around-world-almost-300m-15-24-year-olds-are-not-working-what-has-caused
Demographic Change: The North-South dichotomy is gradually dissolving
The middle class is expected to grow almost exclusively in the «Global East», and consumer markets will accordingly shift further eastwards8
Source: Human Development Report 2013 http://www.agweb.com/blog/ecopragmatism/
Demographic Change: The North-South dichotomy is gradually dissolving
Conflict, poverty and exclusion are the root causes of flight; the growing phenomenon of environmental refugees is alarming
9
http://www.internal-displacement.org/
Demographic Change: The North-South dichotomy is gradually dissolving
Migration within the Global South is more significant than North-South migration
10
http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/development/perspectives-on-global-development-2012_persp_glob_dev-2012-en#page80
Source: OECD 2012, Perspectives on global development
Demographic Change: The North-South dichotomy is gradually dissolving
Migrants’ remittances have become a substantial economic factor far more important than official development aid
11
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPROSPECTS/Resources/334934-1110315015165/MigrationandDevelopmentBrief18.pdf
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2013/09/Chami.htm
“We can either have democracy in this country or we can have great wealth concentrated in the
hands of a few, but we can’t have both.”Louis Brandeis
Economic justiceThe arithmetic of “Inclusive Growth” does not add up
Economic Justice: The arithmetic of «Inclusive Growth» does not add up
Since the turn of millennium the absolute number of people living in absolute poverty (< 1.25$ a day) has decreased significantly…1
http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/State_of_the_poor_paper_April17.pdf
Economic Justice: The arithmetic of «Inclusive Growth» does not add up
… though almost exclusively in China 2
http://filipspagnoli.wordpress.com/stats-on-human-rights/statistics-on-poverty/statistics-on-poverty-and-absolute-income-levels/
Economic Justice: The arithmetic of «Inclusive Growth» does not add up
… but the share of population living below national poverty lines is still high in a large number of countries
3
http://cesr.org/article.php?id=918
Economic Justice: The arithmetic of «Inclusive Growth» does not add up
Extreme poverty is rife mainly in rural areas, with the exception of Latin America
4
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2007/09/ravalli.htm
Economic Justice: The arithmetic of «Inclusive Growth» does not add up
In the 19th century, class status primarily explained inequality among people, today it is place of birth
5
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Library/Articles/Special-Feature/Detail/?id=172351&contextid774=172351&contextid775=172467
Economic justice: The arithmetic of «Inclusive Growth» does not add up
Less than 100 of the planet’s richest own the equivalent of the poor half of the world’s population
6
http://www.eurodad.org/files/pdf/52e8d19751750.pdf
Economic Justice: The arithmetic of «Inclusive Growth» does not add up
In the past 20 years, the super-rich have become disproportionately richer in most countries and regions …7
http://www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/development/perspectives-on-global-development-2012_persp_glob_dev-2012-en#page80
OECD 2012, Perspectives on global development p. 105
Economic justice: The arithmetic of «Inclusive Growth» does not add up
… and this is particularly true for the «growth and poverty miracle» China
8
http://www.eurodad.org/files/pdf/52e8d19751750.pdf
Economic Justice: The arithmetic of «Inclusive Growth» does not add up
The Gini index by world regions shows that: accelerated growth leads to rising inequalities9
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2007/res1010a.htm
Economic justice: The arithmetic of «Inclusive Growth» does not add up
Economic productivity has grown considerably, but not wages, as demonstrated by the case of the US …
10
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2013/03/wage-and-productivity-effects-of-internet-trolling-by-matt-yglesias/
Economic Justice: The arithmetic of «Inclusive Growth» does not add up
… which explains, why a large share of the US populationdoes not belong to the “winners of economic growth”
11
http://www.decisionsonevidence.com/2011/08/introduction-rising-inequality-in-america/
“No one denies that our problems would be easier to solve if we were richer.
The question is, does growth any longer make us richer, or is it now making us poorer?”
Herman Daly
Resource JusticeGrowth and economic development are scarce goods
Resource Justice : Growth and economic development are scarce goods
The «great acceleration»: Since the Second World WarWorld GDP has almost exploded1
http://www.gallus-group.com/pt/desktopdefault.aspx/tabid-367/533_read-1474/
Resource Justice : Growth and economic development are scarce goods
This explosion in growth was only made possible by massive exploitation of natural resources …2
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wess/wess_current/2011wess.pdf
Resource Justice : Growth and economic development are scarce goods
… leading to a shortage of resources in real termsat the expense of future generations
3
http://ingienous.com/?page_id=6983
http://www.materialflows.net/fileadmin/docs/materialflows.net/matflow_FS4_web.pdf/
Resource Justice : Growth and economic development are scarce goods
Technological progress was not able to prevent increasing scarcity of resources (rebound effect) – ‘growth without resources’ is a myth
4
http://www.materialflows.net/trends/analyses-1980-2008/global-resource-extraction-2005-2030/
Resource Justice : Growth and economic development are scarce goods
If the present trend continues, the exploitation of resources will double within just one generation…
5
http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/newsletter/det/human_demand_outstripping_natures_regenerative_capacity_at_an_alarming_rate
Resource Justice : Growth and economic development are scarce goods
… although we are now already consuming the resources of one and a half worlds
6
http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/footprint_for_nations/
Resource Justice : Growth and economic development are scarce goods
Between the world regions, there are substantial differences in per-capita consumption and per-capita availability of resources
7
Region/Country
Footprint pc ,2007
Biocapacity pc, 2007
Balance
Africa 1.4 1.5 +0.1
Asia 1.8 0.8 -1.0
China 2.2 1.0 -1,2
Europe 4.7 2.9 -1.8
Switzerland 5.0 1.2 -3.8
Latin America 2.6 5.5 +2.9
North America 7.9 4.9 -3.0
USA 8.0 3.9 -4.1
Oceania 5.4 11.1 +5.8
Resource Justice : Growth and economic development are scarce goods
Notably in the poorest countries, decreasing biocapacities lead to conflicts over resources such as water or land
8
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v1/n7/full/nclimate1236.html
A map of previous conflicts (1980-2005) attributed to environmental issues, their sizes and causes
http://www.waterworld.com/articles/wwi/print/volume-26/issue-2/regional-spotlight-europe/how-sustainable-is-europe-s-water-footprint.html
Resource Justice : Growth and economic development are scarce goods
Increasing globalisation of trade is further aggravating water scarcity in the Global South (problem of virtual water)
9
http://blogs.worldwatch.org/nourishingtheplanet/tag/fao/page/2/
Resource Justice : Growth and economic development are scarce goods
One result of resource scarcity: The world market prices for food have been massively on the rebound since the global crisis …10
http://dgff.unctad.org/chapter4/4.2.html
http://oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/land-grabs-update-more-hectares-than-we-thought-and-definitely-bad-for-development/
Resource Justice : Growth and economic development are scarce goods
… the appetite of the global speculation business for arable land in the southern hemisphere is constantly growing
11
“We are running this planetlike a business in liquidation”
Herman E. Daly
Climate JusticeThe widening gap between cause and effect
Climate Justice : The widening gap between cause and effect
3 out of 9 ‘planetary boundaries’ have been crossed, including climate change, the biggest challenge facing the world today1
http://www.unesco.org/new/wsd2012
Source: modified from Rockström et al. (2009). Researchers recently identified nine planetary boundaries, which collectively delineate a safe operating space for humanity. Three have already been crossed. This concept has the potential to develop into a useful tool for policymakers.
Climate Justice : The widening gap between cause and effect
Global warming is already a reality today, and if no measures are taken, temperatures will rise sharply by end of this century …2
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wess/wess_current/2011wess.pdf
Climate Justice : The widening gap between cause and effect
… with unforeseeable consequences for the world’s ecosystems and human life
3
http://www.challengetochange.org/climate.htm
Climate Justice : The widening gap between cause and effect
Limiting global temperature increase is a matter of survival – political leaders and societies are called upon to act immediately
4
http://www.economist.com/node/17572735
Climate Justice : The widening gap between cause and effect
The vulnerability to climate change is most pronounced in regions where people live in poverty …
5
http://ingienous.com/?page_id=11379
Climate Justice : The widening gap between cause and effect
… and these are not the regionswhere greenhouse gas emissions mostly occur
6
http://www.viewsoftheworld.net/?tag=co2
Carbon Emission 2009
Climate Justice : The widening gap between cause and effect
Energy production and consumption is the main source of greenhouse gas emissions, so too are some types of land use
7
http://greenblog.typepad.com/d41e/global/ http://www.energyland.emsd.gov.hk/en/energy/environment/greenhouse.html
Share of GHGs Emissions per type of GHG2004
Share of GHGs Emissions per sector2004
Climate Justice : The widening gap between cause and effect
While sustainable farming and forestry are global tasks, the impetus for an energy turnaround must come from the global North
8
http://dgff.unctad.org/chapter4/4.4.html
Climate Justice : The widening gap between cause and effect
The costs of transforming energy systems and mitigating climate change effects are enormous - a multiple of development aid …
9
http://www.eurodad.org/files/pdf/520a3b1cea2d4.pdf
Climate Justice : The widening gap between cause and effect
… nevertheless, transformative development towards an economy of life is no utopia …
10
http://oliveventures.com.sg/act/2011/02/16/paradigm-shiftour-human-money-economy-is-a-subset-of-the-earths-larger-bioeconomy
/
Climate Justice : The widening gap between cause and effect
… because welfare and development do not necessarily require an increasing ecological footprint per capita
11
http://studentreporter.org/2013/10/ecological-footprint-thinking-inside-the-green-box/
Global GovernanceWhat the global community is doing
“If you focus on results you will never changeif you focus on change you will get results”
Jack Dixon
Global Governance: What the global community is doing
The history of global development initiatives is relatively young- it really got under way with the Earth Summit of 1992 …1
GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT INITIATIVES IN THE 1980s
1986
GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT INITIATIVES TODAY
Global Governance: What the global community is doing
… previously, the power of definition was in the hands of the World Bank and IMF, today there is a multitude of players in global agenda
setting2
GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT PLAYERS IN THE 1980s
Washington-Consensus
GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT PLAYERS TODAY
Global Governance: What the global community is doing
Under the aegis of the UN and OECD, four key international initiatives have been launched in the past two decades3
EARTH SUMMITSWhat development
paradigm?
HIGH-LEVEL FORUMSWhat partnership for development?
SOCIAL SUMMITSHow to fight
poverty?
DIALOGUE ON PEACE AND STATEBUILDING
How to addressfragility?
Global Governance: What the global community is doing
The Rio Earth Summit resulted in a series of international agreements and conventions aimed at promoting a sustainable world4
Agenda 21 http://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/Agenda21.pdf
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)(Kyoto Protocol 2005) http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf
https://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php
UN Forest Principles http://www.un.org/documents/ga/conf151/aconf15126-3annex3.htm
Convention on Biological Diversity http://www.cbd.int/convention/
Rio Declaration http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.asp?documentid=78&articleid=1163
Global Governance: What the global community is doing
The breakthrough came with the turn of the millennium: For the firsttime, the global community adopted 8 common development goals5
http://www.unfoundation.org/blog/coming-together.html
Global Governance: What the global community is doing
The 8 development goals have only been partially met, the least progress has been achieved in countries affected by conflict and
fragility
6
http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTDECPROSPECTS/0,,contentMDK:23109716~pagePK:64165401~piPK:64165026~theSitePK:476883,00.html
Global Governance: What the global community is doing
As part of a global consultation, the global community is currently reflecting on a new development agenda beyond 2015 … 7
http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/education-plus-development/posts/2013/02/15-post-2015-development-agenda-anderson
Global Governance: What the global community is doing
.. based on the idea of agreeing on a series of ‘sustainable development
goals’ that are valid for all countries including the Global North
8
+ =
Global Governance: What the global community is doing
Mandated by the United Nations, a group of «eminent persons» has recently presented initial recommendations and proposals9
http://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/malaria-consortium-partner-zone/high-level-panel-post-2015-malaria-consortium http://www.lattitude.org.uk/2013/10/beyon
d-2015-leaving-no-one-behind/
Global Governance: What the global community is doing
Market-driven environment protection policies have failed, inter alia, because of a considerable fall in emissions trading prices …10
http://energydemocracyinitiative.org/emissions-up-carbon-prices-down-what-does-it-mean-for-unions/
Global Governance: What the global community is doing
… which makes it all the more important that the sustainable development goals will replace or revitalize the stalled Kyoto
negotiations
11
http://www.rtcc.org/2012/12/10/weak-doha-deal-leaves-world-on-pathway-to-3c-by-2040/