resource assessment - ccop€¦ · • analogy methods • geochemical material balance ......
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Resource Assessment
Dr. Alfred Kjemperud
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Petroleum Resource Assessment
• Estimation of the total volume of recoverable Hydrocarbons, discovered and undiscovered, in a given area
• The chance of finding and producing the hydrocarbons economically
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Government use of Resource Assessment
• Establish a prudent Energy Policy
• Evaluate the Economic and Environmental impacts
• Attract Investments
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The Industry use of Resource Assessment
• Develop Exploration Strategies• Justify Exploration Expenditures• Identify areas for acquisition• Quantify Risk relative to Reward• Provide basis for Economic Analysis• Estimate future needs for capital
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Assessment Methods• Delphi (up to 1960)
– Statements from geological oracles
• Area/Yield (Developed in Exxon in the 50’s)
– Basin Area*Productive part*bbl/acre• forerunner of modern techniques
• Volumetric Yield– Introduced pay thickness
• Analogy Methods• Geochemical Material Balance• Play Analysis (Number and Sizes of
Fields/Summation of Prospects) oder
n M
ethod
s
Ancien
t Meth
ods
M
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Petroleum Resource Assessment Methods
Crustal Identification
Basin Analogy
Play Analysis
Prospect Evaluation
DiscoveryEvaluation
FieldEval.
Resource Assessment
Incr
easi
ng D
ata
Ava
ilabi
lity
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Crustal Types
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Petroleum Resource Assessment Methods
Crustal Identification
Basin Analogy
Play Analysis
Prospect Evaluation
DiscoveryEvaluation
FieldEval.
Resource Assessment
Incr
easi
ng D
ata
Ava
ilabi
lity
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Basin Types
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Source Rocks vs. Basin Types
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Geochemical Material Balance
Drainage areax
Source Thicknessx
% Organic Contentx
% Generated into Hydrocarbonsx
% Migratedx
% Trappedx
% Potentially Recoverable
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Number and Sizes of Fields
Number of Prospectsx
Success Ratio x
Field Size
Success Ratio:No. of economical Successes/No. of Wildcats
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Petroleum Resource Assessment Methods
Crustal Identification
Basin Analogy
Play Analysis
Prospect Evaluation
DiscoveryEvaluation
FieldEval.
Resource Assessment
Incr
easi
ng D
ata
Ava
ilabi
lity
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Play Analysis Benefits
• Efficient use of Geological and Geophysical Data
• Efficient Utilization of heterogene database
• Easy to develop a complete, updateable resource database
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Play Definitionby Duff &Hall 1995
• One or more closures of similar structural, depositional or hydrodynamic style, which result from a specific set of tectonic, depositional, diagenetic or halokineticprocesses within a sedimentary basin, and which with suitable reservoir and sealing lithologies, and hydrocarbon charge, may form prospective hydrocarbon traps
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Play Definitionby NPD
• A Play is Defined by a set of Geological Factors and Attributes that, when combined, give the conditions necessary for the Accumulation of Hydrocarbons
• All Prospects and Discoveries within a Play share the same set of necessary attributes and are hence distinguishable from Prospects and Discoveries belonging to other Plays
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Play Attributes
• Existence of a Mature Source Rock in Possible Drainage Area of Traps
• Existence of sealed Traps formed prior to the end of Hydrocarbon Migration
• Existence of Reservoir Rock
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Source and Traps
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Traps
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Petroleum Resource Assessment Methods
Crustal Identification
Basin Analogy
Play Analysis
Prospect Evaluation
DiscoveryEvaluation
FieldEval.
Resource Assessment
Incr
easi
ng D
ata
Ava
ilabi
lity
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Prospect Analysis
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Petroleum Resource Assessment Methods
Crustal Identification
Basin Analogy
Play Analysis
Prospect Evaluation
DiscoveryEvaluation
FieldEval.
Resource Assessment
Incr
easi
ng D
ata
Ava
ilabi
lity
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Reserve estimation by Material Balance
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Reserve estimation by Decline Analysis
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Uncertainty Through Time
UltimateRecovery
Cummulative Productio
n
Aba
ndon
men
t
Time
Res
erve
sMost Likely
Minimum
Maximum Exploration Production
Material Balance
Decline Analysis
Analogs/Prospect Analysis
Volumetric Methods
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Estimation Problems
• Modeling the wrong geological concept
• The right geology is modeled wrongly
• Concept is missed• Complex Geological control• Poor data• Subjective risking• Mistakes
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Psychodynamics
• Emotional and motivational factors that may affect assessment– Examples
• Patriotic enthusiasm• Fighting for budget• Desire to influence national politics• Desire to do what the boss wants
– Such factors are seldom recognized