resilient landscapes and socio-economic …

RESILIENT LANDSCAPES AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN THAILANDLouis Lebel

Unit for Social and Environmental Research (USER),Faculty of Social Sciences, Chiang Mai University

Land Cover/Land Use Change Chiang Mai 19 July 2017 (0930)

Socio-economic development has been rapid and uneven

UNDP, (2009) Thailand Human Development Report 2009: Human security, today and tomorrow. United Nations Development Program, Bangkok.

“Thailand is a very unequal society. There is growing awareness that inequality lies at the root of several forms of human insecurity, including rising political conflict.”

Gini HH income

Introduction Road workRubber & Oil Conservation Conclusions

Boom-and-bust development has impacted landscapes and livelihood strategies

Resilient landscapes

Resilient landscapes are those which are able to re-organize and continue to function after significant disturbances –fires, floods, commodity price shifts, new policies


Development policies interact with shifts in demand to drive changes in landscapes

Policies Markets

• Latex & bio-diesel• Feed corn & wildlife trade• Land & logistics

4

• Rubber & renewable energy• Watershed & Conservation• Transport & city planning

What have been the impacts of policies on landscape resilience?


Rubber policy and markets

• Rubber Cultivation for Raising the Sustainable Income to Farmers in the New Planting Area Phase 1 (2004–2006)’

• export value US$ 9.3 billion a year (2010-3) Cf rice US$ 5.3 billion

• As stocks have risen prices have fallen

• Also impacted by fossil fuel and synthetic rubber prices

5 Introduction Road workRubber & Oil Conservation Conclusions

The

Econ

omis

tSi

am C

omm

erci

al B

ank

Recent expansion of rubber due to policy change influence ecosystem services provided by landscape

6

Arunyawat, S., Shrestha, R. (2016) Assessing Land Use Change and Its Impact on Ecosystem Services in Northern Thailand. Sustainability 8, 768.

Wang Thong Watershed Phitsanulok


Continued expansion of rubber and fruit trees at expense of forests will impact watershed services in future climates

7

Trisurat, Y., Eawpanich, P., Kalliola, R. (2016) Integrating land use and climate change scenarios and models into assessment of forested watershed services in Southern Thailand. Environmental Research 147, 611-620.


Thad

eeW

ater

shed

Nak

hon-

sri-t

ham

mar

at

Renewable energy policies have set ambitious targets for biodiesel production

• Campaign to promote biodiesel started in 2005• production became significant in 2008 with mandatory

replacement of regular diesel to include 2% and later 5% biodiesel (also used price subsidies)

• Targets hard to meet; Alternative Energy Development Plan (2012-2021) sets more ambitious targets


Kumar et al. 2013. An assessment of Thailand’s biofuel development Sustainability 5:1577-1597

Renewable energy policies can have substantial impact on LULC and landscape resilience

9

Sasw

atte

cha,

K.,

Hein

, L.,

Kroe

ze, C

., Ja

wjit

, W. (

2016

) Effe

cts o

f oi

l pal

m e

xpan

sion

thro

ugh

dire

ct a

nd in

dire

ct la

nd u

se c

hang

e in

Tapi

river

bas

in, T

haila

nd. I

nter

natio

nal J

ourn

al o

f Bio

dive

rsity

Sc

ienc

e, E

cosy

stem

Ser

vice

s & M

anag

emen

t 12,

291

-313

.


Ttap

iRiv

er B

asin

, sou

ther

n Th

aila

nd

Policies like maintaining protected areas help conserve biodiversity and provide other significant eco-services

• incorporate mangroves into marine protected areas to reduce gap

• Scale up successful models of co-management

• Payment for ecosystem services (blue carbon) provided by mangroves

10

Friess et al. 2016. Policy challenges and approaches for the conservation of mangrove forests in Southeast Asia. Conservation Biology 30:933-949.


Ferraro et al. 2015. Estimating the impacts of conservation on ecosystem services and poverty by integrating modeling and evaluation. PNAS 112:7420-7425.

Green & Blue Carbon?

Expansion of feed corn to support changing diets drive rapid LULC in Nan Province

11

Jaiarree, S., et al. (2011) Soil Organic Carbon Loss and Turnover Resulting from Forest Conversion to Maize Fields in Eastern Thailand. Pedosphere 21, 581-590.

Baicha, W. (2016) Land use dynamics and land cover structure change in Thailand (as exemplified by mountainous Nan Province. Geography and Natural Resources 37, 87-92.


Reductions in forest cover likely to have major impacts on biodiversity and large mammals

12

Trisurat, Y., et al. (2014) Assessing potential effects of land use and climate change on mammal distributions in northern Thailand. Wildlife Research 41, 522-536.

leopard


Thai

land

Wild

life.

com

2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami degraded capacities of most LULC classes to provide ecosystem services

13

Kaiser, G et al. (2013) Mapping tsunami impacts on land cover and related ecosystem service supply in Phang Nga, Thailand. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 13, 3095-3111.

Pre-tsunami Post-tsunami


Regional economic development and integration ideas have often been ‘driven’ by road infrastructure


New roads create links to other places transforming access to markets and range of viable livelihoods

• expansion of upland cash crops at expense of forests and rice in areas nearer roads

15

Patarasuk, R., Binford, M.W. (2012) Longitudinal analysis of the road network development and land-cover change in Lop Buri province, Thailand, 1989-2006. Applied Geography 32, 228-239.


Urbanization around Chiang Mai may be reducing resilience to floods and droughts

16

Lebel, L et al. (2007) Views of Chiang Mai: the contributions of remote sensing to urban governance and sustainability., in: Netzbandet al. (Eds.), Applied Remote Sensing for Urban Planning, Governance and Sustainability. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, pp. 221-247.

1931Introduction Road workRubber & Oil Conservation Conclusions

Conclusions

• There is a growing body of work on the implications of socio-economic development for landscape change in Thailand

• By drawing on understanding of ecosystem services this work suggests how landscape resilience may be changing as a result of specific development policies and markets.


Thai

land

Env

ironm

ent I

nstit

ute

Expansion of boom crops in SE Asia

Hurni et al. 2017. Mapping the expansion of boom crops in mainland Southeast Asia using dense time stacks of Landsat data. Remote Sensing 9: 320

18

Resilience ball in a cup

19

resilient landscapes and socio-economic …

Documents