resilience - proactiveinvestors uk · 2018-12-08 · this presentation and its contents may not be...
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Power Ventures Plc
RESILIENCE
Proactive One to One 9 March 2017
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Power Ventures Plc
DISCLAIMER
NOT FOR RELEASE, PUBLICATION OR DISTRIBUTION, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, IN OR INTO THE UNITED STATES, CANADA, AUSTRALIA OR JAPAN
This presentation and its contents may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, in whole or in part for any purpose without the consent of OPG Power Ventures Plc (“OPG”). Having taken all reasonable care to ensure that such is the case, the information contained in this presentation is, to the best of the knowledge and belief of the Directors of OPG, in accordance with the facts and contains no omission likely to affect its import. This presentation does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for any securities, or a proposal to make a takeover bid in any jurisdiction. Neither this document nor the fact of its distribution nor the making of the presentation constitutes a recommendation regarding any securities. This presentation is being provided to you for information purposes only.
Certain statements, beliefs and opinions contained in this presentation, particularly those regarding the possible or assumed future financial or other performance of OPG, industry growth or other trend projections are or may be forward looking statements. Forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology, including the terms “believes”, “estimates”, “anticipates”, “expects”, “intends”, “plans”, “goal”, “target”, “aim”, “may”, “will”, “would”, “could” or “should” or, in each case, their negative or other variations or comparable terminology. These forward-looking statements include all matters that are not historical facts. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future and may be beyond OPG’s ability to control or predict.
Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. No representation is made that any of these statements or forecasts will come to pass or that any forecast result will be achieved.
Neither OPG, nor any of its associates or directors, officers or advisers, provides any representation, assurance or guarantee that the occurrence of the events expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements in this presentation will actually occur. You are cautioned not to place reliance on these forward-looking statements. OPG is not under any obligation and OPG expressly disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
No statement in this presentation is intended as a profit forecast or a profit estimate and no statement in this presentation should be interpreted to mean that earnings per OPG share for the current or future financial years would necessarily match or exceed the historical published earnings per OPG share.
The distribution of this presentation or any information contained in it may be restricted by law in certain jurisdictions, and any person into whose possession any document containing this presentation or any part of it comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. Any failure to comply with such restrictions may constitute a violation of the laws of any such jurisdiction. By attending the presentation and/or accepting or accessing this document you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations and conditions and will be taken to have represented, warranted and undertaken that you have read and agree to comply with the contents of this notice.
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Power Ventures Plc
ABOUT OPGA developer and operator of power plants in India with a track record of delivery and growth
CAPACITY
3
20 30
107 113
190
270
600
750
812
936
Jharkhand124 MW
Karnataka62 MW
Gujarat 300 MW
Tamil Nadu450 MW
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Power Ventures Plc
EPS (PENCE)
MANAGEMENT TRACK RECORD
Reported earnings have risen and we are a dividend payer
4
REVENUES (£M)
PROFIT BEFORE TAX (£M)
EBITDA (£M)
18
31 33
51
23
41
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 HY16 HY17
56
99 100
128
57
118
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 HY16 HY17
13
2022
29
15
20
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 HY16 HY17
2.4
4.1
4.95.3
3.4
4.8
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 HY16 HY17
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Power Ventures Plc
US RELATIVE TO OUR PEERS
EBITDA
• Business model has achieved attractive tariffs
• Business model supported by robust operating assets and coal flexibility
• Better resilience to volatility - ahead of industry
• A dividend payer
LEVERAGE
• Investments are capital intensive
• Net Debt/EBITDA is favourable vs industry
• Debt repayments have been on or before schedule
5
39%42%
32%
39%
29% 30%
25%24%
22%25%
20%22%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2015A 2016E
C1 OPG C2 C3 C4 C5
-3.0x
0.0x
3.0x
6.0x
9.0x
12.0x
Median
Source: Macquarie research
MARGINS VERSUS OTHER INDIAN THERMAL POWER COMPANIES
NET DEBT/EBITDA VERSUS GLOBAL UTILITIES
OPG
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Power Ventures Plc
TOPICS FOR DISCUSSION
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Power Ventures Plc
ANALYST COVERAGE & VIEWS
Cenkos
BUY
• 26th Jan 2017: “Weathering the Storm”
• 28th Feb 2017: “With significant expansion projects underway and the commencement of dividend payments we believe that OPG stock offers and attractive combination of income and growth.”
Cantor Fitzgerald
BUY
• 30th Jan 2017: “Investment Case Withstands External Shock”
• 28th Feb 2017: “New Debt Repayment Schedule Builds Robustness”
Macquarie
BUY
• 31st Jan 2017: “An underappreciated growth story”
• 28th Feb 2017: “Debt extension to provide significant financial flexibility.”
Shore Capital
HOLD
• 24th May 2016 (BUY): “Paying dividends…”
• 28th Feb 2017 (HOLD): “Bridging the gap….”
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Power Ventures Plc
DELIVERY VERSUS SHARE PRICE
8
Source: Bloomberg
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Power Ventures Plc
AT A DISCOUNT TO INDIAN AND EUROPEAN UTILITIES AND TO ANALYSTS
9
Source: Macquarie research
45%47%
37% 36%
53% 53%
30%
39%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E
PE EV/EBITDA
OPG vs Indian utilities OPG vs EU utilities
OPG’S P/E DISCOUNT OPG’S EV/EBITDA DISCOUNT
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Power Ventures Plc
SHARE PRICE AND INSTITUTIONAL SALES
10
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
31-Mar-2014 01-Jul-2014 01-Oct-2014 30-Dec-2014 30-Apr-2015 01-Jul-2015 30-Sep-2015 15-Dec-2015 31-May-2016 30-Sep-2016 30-Dec-2016
Change in holding
Pence
No.of shares
Source: Nasdaq
Source: Bloomberg
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Power Ventures Plc
SHARE REGISTER: MOVEMENT IN TOP 10 INSTITUTIONAL SHAREHOLDERS
11
32.0%
33.0%
34.0%
35.0%
36.0%
37.0%
38.0%
114,000,000
120,000,000
126,000,000
132,000,000
Cumulative increase in top 10 shareholders
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
10.0%
12.5%
15.0%
A B C D E F G H I J K
Dec-13 Dec-16
Movement in holdings of top 10 shareholders
No.of shares
Source: Nasdaq
Source: Nasdaq
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Power Ventures Plc
EFFECT OF EXTERNAL EVENTS AND MITIGANTS
12
CY Event Effect Management Response
2014 Gujarat transmission line not provided Timing of revenues Constructed two transmission lines
2015 Worst TN floods in many years One-off PLF Kept plant available and restored supply as
soon as grid and demand available
2016 Coal price spike – China policy “Spread” impact Coal forward purchases in 2016
TN Cyclone/TN week of mourning One off PLF Restored plant availability within days of
cyclone and restored supply as soon as grid
and demand available
Demonetisation Minor impact Spread of customers and retained
opportunity for any upside
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Power Ventures Plc
COAL PRICE SPIKE
13
50.00
57.50
65.00
72.50
80.00
87.50
Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 2019 2020 2021
Thermal coal consensus forecast Newcastle coal 6000 GAR
USD/t
SHARP SPIKE IN COAL PRICES IN H2 CY2016
COAL CONSENSUS - PRICE REDUCTION
Source: Argus Index Mar 2017
Source: Consensus Economics Feb 2017
Thermal coal priceIndonesian coal 4200 GAR
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
55.00
20 Jan 2012 20 Jan 2013 20 Jan 2014 20 Jan 2015 20 Jan 2016 20 Jan 2017
USD/t
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Power Ventures Plc
LIMITED IMPACT OF DEMONETISATION ON US
DEMONETISATION : 8TH NOV 2016 OF ₹500 (US$7.40) and ₹1,000 (US$15) banknotes .
WHY
• India >85% cash economy with only c1% paying taxes
• Move to curtail the shadow economy and bring money into normal economy
• Crack down on the use of illicit and counterfeit cash
IMMEDIATE NATIONWIDE IMPACT
• Sudden announcement created significant disruption;
• Shortage of cash impacted retail, real estate and bullion markets
• Expected to lead to a contraction in GDP by about 100 bps
LONGER TERM
• Stock market above pre-demonetisation and demand returning
• Higher liquidity and cashflow in normal economy plus digital economy expansion
• GDP expected to increase by 100-150 bps every year
For us – initial drop and then steady improvements in scheduling by affected customers
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Power Ventures Plc15
LOOKING AHEAD
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Power Ventures Plc
AS WELL AS MORE ENERGY, INDIA WANTS FUEL DIVERSITY
16
562 GW INSTALLED BY 203047% COAL & 28% RENEWABLES MW
INDIA FORECASTED TO ADD C.260 GW BY 2030
• India to reduce CO2 intensity by 33% from 2005 levels by 2030
2.8 TWH GENERATION BY 2030 65% COAL & 15% RENEWABLES TWH
Source: NITI Aayog April 2015 - Report on Energy Efficiency and Energy Mix – Determined Effort case; In Indian Energy System (2030) using India Energy Security Scenarios 2047
708
14471848
58.6
213
424
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2012 2022 2030
Coal Renewable Gas & Nuclear Hydro & other
106205
26411
74
160
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2012 2022 2030
Coal Renewable Gas & Nuclear Hydro & Other
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Power Ventures Plc
HOW THE GROUP MIGHT LOOK IN FIVE YEARS
750 MW 1200+ MW
ILLUSTRATIVE OPPORTUNITIES
17
33%
Long term pay-out
10% p.a
Dividend growth
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Power Ventures Plc
GROWTH - SOLAR PROJECTS
18
Project Average Tariff
COD Expect.
CapexEst.
PPA Transmission
Debt Finance
Land EPC
Name Rs/kWh Date £m
62 MW Karnataka
5.00 Q3 2017 40-45 Signed Approval
40 MW approval22 MW in principle
DD & acquisition underway
Shortlisted
FIRM PIPELINE
124 MWJharkhand
>5.00 2019 90-100LOI signed
PPA awaited
IdentifiedIn
discussionIdentified Shortlist
Jharkhand124 MW
Karnataka62MW
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Power Ventures Plc
UPCOMING
CALENDAR
• MAY 2017: Q4 / PRE CLOSE
• JUNE 2017: FY17 RESULTS
• FINAL DIVIDEND
• 2017: SOLAR PROJECT SET UP
• BUILDING TALENT
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Power Ventures Plc
OPG RECAP :
Robust portfolio of assets
• 750 MW of operating assets
• PLFs ahead of sector average since commencement
• Over 90% Plant availability
Experienced Management team
• Project delivery despite headwinds
• Track record of industry leading “dark spreads”/gross margins
Attractive Sector Fundamentals
• 7-7.5% GDP growth
• UDAY, Demonetisation
• IEA forecasts 260 GW of new capacity needed
Focus on cash flow and value
• Dividend policy of 15% growing to 33% in medium term
• Chennai debt repayments and Gujarat new schedule
Growth & Diversification
• 62 MW solar on track
• 124 MW pipeline
20