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Power Ventures Plc RESILIENCE Proactive One to One 9 March 2017

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Page 1: RESILIENCE - Proactiveinvestors UK · 2018-12-08 · This presentation and its contents may not be ... earnings per OPG share for the current or future financial years ... FY13 FY14

Power Ventures Plc

RESILIENCE

Proactive One to One 9 March 2017

Page 2: RESILIENCE - Proactiveinvestors UK · 2018-12-08 · This presentation and its contents may not be ... earnings per OPG share for the current or future financial years ... FY13 FY14

Power Ventures Plc

DISCLAIMER

NOT FOR RELEASE, PUBLICATION OR DISTRIBUTION, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, IN OR INTO THE UNITED STATES, CANADA, AUSTRALIA OR JAPAN

This presentation and its contents may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, in whole or in part for any purpose without the consent of OPG Power Ventures Plc (“OPG”). Having taken all reasonable care to ensure that such is the case, the information contained in this presentation is, to the best of the knowledge and belief of the Directors of OPG, in accordance with the facts and contains no omission likely to affect its import. This presentation does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for any securities, or a proposal to make a takeover bid in any jurisdiction. Neither this document nor the fact of its distribution nor the making of the presentation constitutes a recommendation regarding any securities. This presentation is being provided to you for information purposes only.

Certain statements, beliefs and opinions contained in this presentation, particularly those regarding the possible or assumed future financial or other performance of OPG, industry growth or other trend projections are or may be forward looking statements. Forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology, including the terms “believes”, “estimates”, “anticipates”, “expects”, “intends”, “plans”, “goal”, “target”, “aim”, “may”, “will”, “would”, “could” or “should” or, in each case, their negative or other variations or comparable terminology. These forward-looking statements include all matters that are not historical facts. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future and may be beyond OPG’s ability to control or predict.

Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. No representation is made that any of these statements or forecasts will come to pass or that any forecast result will be achieved.

Neither OPG, nor any of its associates or directors, officers or advisers, provides any representation, assurance or guarantee that the occurrence of the events expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements in this presentation will actually occur. You are cautioned not to place reliance on these forward-looking statements. OPG is not under any obligation and OPG expressly disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

No statement in this presentation is intended as a profit forecast or a profit estimate and no statement in this presentation should be interpreted to mean that earnings per OPG share for the current or future financial years would necessarily match or exceed the historical published earnings per OPG share.

The distribution of this presentation or any information contained in it may be restricted by law in certain jurisdictions, and any person into whose possession any document containing this presentation or any part of it comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. Any failure to comply with such restrictions may constitute a violation of the laws of any such jurisdiction. By attending the presentation and/or accepting or accessing this document you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations and conditions and will be taken to have represented, warranted and undertaken that you have read and agree to comply with the contents of this notice.

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Page 3: RESILIENCE - Proactiveinvestors UK · 2018-12-08 · This presentation and its contents may not be ... earnings per OPG share for the current or future financial years ... FY13 FY14

Power Ventures Plc

ABOUT OPGA developer and operator of power plants in India with a track record of delivery and growth

CAPACITY

3

20 30

107 113

190

270

600

750

812

936

Jharkhand124 MW

Karnataka62 MW

Gujarat 300 MW

Tamil Nadu450 MW

Page 4: RESILIENCE - Proactiveinvestors UK · 2018-12-08 · This presentation and its contents may not be ... earnings per OPG share for the current or future financial years ... FY13 FY14

Power Ventures Plc

EPS (PENCE)

MANAGEMENT TRACK RECORD

Reported earnings have risen and we are a dividend payer

4

REVENUES (£M)

PROFIT BEFORE TAX (£M)

EBITDA (£M)

18

31 33

51

23

41

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 HY16 HY17

56

99 100

128

57

118

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 HY16 HY17

13

2022

29

15

20

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 HY16 HY17

2.4

4.1

4.95.3

3.4

4.8

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 HY16 HY17

Page 5: RESILIENCE - Proactiveinvestors UK · 2018-12-08 · This presentation and its contents may not be ... earnings per OPG share for the current or future financial years ... FY13 FY14

Power Ventures Plc

US RELATIVE TO OUR PEERS

EBITDA

• Business model has achieved attractive tariffs

• Business model supported by robust operating assets and coal flexibility

• Better resilience to volatility - ahead of industry

• A dividend payer

LEVERAGE

• Investments are capital intensive

• Net Debt/EBITDA is favourable vs industry

• Debt repayments have been on or before schedule

5

39%42%

32%

39%

29% 30%

25%24%

22%25%

20%22%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

2015A 2016E

C1 OPG C2 C3 C4 C5

-3.0x

0.0x

3.0x

6.0x

9.0x

12.0x

Median

Source: Macquarie research

MARGINS VERSUS OTHER INDIAN THERMAL POWER COMPANIES

NET DEBT/EBITDA VERSUS GLOBAL UTILITIES

OPG

Page 6: RESILIENCE - Proactiveinvestors UK · 2018-12-08 · This presentation and its contents may not be ... earnings per OPG share for the current or future financial years ... FY13 FY14

Power Ventures Plc

TOPICS FOR DISCUSSION

Page 7: RESILIENCE - Proactiveinvestors UK · 2018-12-08 · This presentation and its contents may not be ... earnings per OPG share for the current or future financial years ... FY13 FY14

Power Ventures Plc

ANALYST COVERAGE & VIEWS

Cenkos

BUY

• 26th Jan 2017: “Weathering the Storm”

• 28th Feb 2017: “With significant expansion projects underway and the commencement of dividend payments we believe that OPG stock offers and attractive combination of income and growth.”

Cantor Fitzgerald

BUY

• 30th Jan 2017: “Investment Case Withstands External Shock”

• 28th Feb 2017: “New Debt Repayment Schedule Builds Robustness”

Macquarie

BUY

• 31st Jan 2017: “An underappreciated growth story”

• 28th Feb 2017: “Debt extension to provide significant financial flexibility.”

Shore Capital

HOLD

• 24th May 2016 (BUY): “Paying dividends…”

• 28th Feb 2017 (HOLD): “Bridging the gap….”

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Page 8: RESILIENCE - Proactiveinvestors UK · 2018-12-08 · This presentation and its contents may not be ... earnings per OPG share for the current or future financial years ... FY13 FY14

Power Ventures Plc

DELIVERY VERSUS SHARE PRICE

8

Source: Bloomberg

Page 9: RESILIENCE - Proactiveinvestors UK · 2018-12-08 · This presentation and its contents may not be ... earnings per OPG share for the current or future financial years ... FY13 FY14

Power Ventures Plc

AT A DISCOUNT TO INDIAN AND EUROPEAN UTILITIES AND TO ANALYSTS

9

Source: Macquarie research

45%47%

37% 36%

53% 53%

30%

39%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E

PE EV/EBITDA

OPG vs Indian utilities OPG vs EU utilities

OPG’S P/E DISCOUNT OPG’S EV/EBITDA DISCOUNT

Page 10: RESILIENCE - Proactiveinvestors UK · 2018-12-08 · This presentation and its contents may not be ... earnings per OPG share for the current or future financial years ... FY13 FY14

Power Ventures Plc

SHARE PRICE AND INSTITUTIONAL SALES

10

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

31-Mar-2014 01-Jul-2014 01-Oct-2014 30-Dec-2014 30-Apr-2015 01-Jul-2015 30-Sep-2015 15-Dec-2015 31-May-2016 30-Sep-2016 30-Dec-2016

Change in holding

Pence

No.of shares

Source: Nasdaq

Source: Bloomberg

Page 11: RESILIENCE - Proactiveinvestors UK · 2018-12-08 · This presentation and its contents may not be ... earnings per OPG share for the current or future financial years ... FY13 FY14

Power Ventures Plc

SHARE REGISTER: MOVEMENT IN TOP 10 INSTITUTIONAL SHAREHOLDERS

11

32.0%

33.0%

34.0%

35.0%

36.0%

37.0%

38.0%

114,000,000

120,000,000

126,000,000

132,000,000

Cumulative increase in top 10 shareholders

0.0%

2.5%

5.0%

7.5%

10.0%

12.5%

15.0%

A B C D E F G H I J K

Dec-13 Dec-16

Movement in holdings of top 10 shareholders

No.of shares

Source: Nasdaq

Source: Nasdaq

Page 12: RESILIENCE - Proactiveinvestors UK · 2018-12-08 · This presentation and its contents may not be ... earnings per OPG share for the current or future financial years ... FY13 FY14

Power Ventures Plc

EFFECT OF EXTERNAL EVENTS AND MITIGANTS

12

CY Event Effect Management Response

2014 Gujarat transmission line not provided Timing of revenues Constructed two transmission lines

2015 Worst TN floods in many years One-off PLF Kept plant available and restored supply as

soon as grid and demand available

2016 Coal price spike – China policy “Spread” impact Coal forward purchases in 2016

TN Cyclone/TN week of mourning One off PLF Restored plant availability within days of

cyclone and restored supply as soon as grid

and demand available

Demonetisation Minor impact Spread of customers and retained

opportunity for any upside

Page 13: RESILIENCE - Proactiveinvestors UK · 2018-12-08 · This presentation and its contents may not be ... earnings per OPG share for the current or future financial years ... FY13 FY14

Power Ventures Plc

COAL PRICE SPIKE

13

50.00

57.50

65.00

72.50

80.00

87.50

Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 2019 2020 2021

Thermal coal consensus forecast Newcastle coal 6000 GAR

USD/t

SHARP SPIKE IN COAL PRICES IN H2 CY2016

COAL CONSENSUS - PRICE REDUCTION

Source: Argus Index Mar 2017

Source: Consensus Economics Feb 2017

Thermal coal priceIndonesian coal 4200 GAR

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

50.00

55.00

20 Jan 2012 20 Jan 2013 20 Jan 2014 20 Jan 2015 20 Jan 2016 20 Jan 2017

USD/t

Page 14: RESILIENCE - Proactiveinvestors UK · 2018-12-08 · This presentation and its contents may not be ... earnings per OPG share for the current or future financial years ... FY13 FY14

Power Ventures Plc

LIMITED IMPACT OF DEMONETISATION ON US

DEMONETISATION : 8TH NOV 2016 OF ₹500 (US$7.40) and ₹1,000 (US$15) banknotes .

WHY

• India >85% cash economy with only c1% paying taxes

• Move to curtail the shadow economy and bring money into normal economy

• Crack down on the use of illicit and counterfeit cash

IMMEDIATE NATIONWIDE IMPACT

• Sudden announcement created significant disruption;

• Shortage of cash impacted retail, real estate and bullion markets

• Expected to lead to a contraction in GDP by about 100 bps

LONGER TERM

• Stock market above pre-demonetisation and demand returning

• Higher liquidity and cashflow in normal economy plus digital economy expansion

• GDP expected to increase by 100-150 bps every year

For us – initial drop and then steady improvements in scheduling by affected customers

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Page 15: RESILIENCE - Proactiveinvestors UK · 2018-12-08 · This presentation and its contents may not be ... earnings per OPG share for the current or future financial years ... FY13 FY14

Power Ventures Plc15

LOOKING AHEAD

Page 16: RESILIENCE - Proactiveinvestors UK · 2018-12-08 · This presentation and its contents may not be ... earnings per OPG share for the current or future financial years ... FY13 FY14

Power Ventures Plc

AS WELL AS MORE ENERGY, INDIA WANTS FUEL DIVERSITY

16

562 GW INSTALLED BY 203047% COAL & 28% RENEWABLES MW

INDIA FORECASTED TO ADD C.260 GW BY 2030

• India to reduce CO2 intensity by 33% from 2005 levels by 2030

2.8 TWH GENERATION BY 2030 65% COAL & 15% RENEWABLES TWH

Source: NITI Aayog April 2015 - Report on Energy Efficiency and Energy Mix – Determined Effort case; In Indian Energy System (2030) using India Energy Security Scenarios 2047

708

14471848

58.6

213

424

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2012 2022 2030

Coal Renewable Gas & Nuclear Hydro & other

106205

26411

74

160

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2012 2022 2030

Coal Renewable Gas & Nuclear Hydro & Other

Page 17: RESILIENCE - Proactiveinvestors UK · 2018-12-08 · This presentation and its contents may not be ... earnings per OPG share for the current or future financial years ... FY13 FY14

Power Ventures Plc

HOW THE GROUP MIGHT LOOK IN FIVE YEARS

750 MW 1200+ MW

ILLUSTRATIVE OPPORTUNITIES

17

33%

Long term pay-out

10% p.a

Dividend growth

Page 18: RESILIENCE - Proactiveinvestors UK · 2018-12-08 · This presentation and its contents may not be ... earnings per OPG share for the current or future financial years ... FY13 FY14

Power Ventures Plc

GROWTH - SOLAR PROJECTS

18

Project Average Tariff

COD Expect.

CapexEst.

PPA Transmission

Debt Finance

Land EPC

Name Rs/kWh Date £m

62 MW Karnataka

5.00 Q3 2017 40-45 Signed Approval

40 MW approval22 MW in principle

DD & acquisition underway

Shortlisted

FIRM PIPELINE

124 MWJharkhand

>5.00 2019 90-100LOI signed

PPA awaited

IdentifiedIn

discussionIdentified Shortlist

Jharkhand124 MW

Karnataka62MW

Page 19: RESILIENCE - Proactiveinvestors UK · 2018-12-08 · This presentation and its contents may not be ... earnings per OPG share for the current or future financial years ... FY13 FY14

Power Ventures Plc

UPCOMING

CALENDAR

• MAY 2017: Q4 / PRE CLOSE

• JUNE 2017: FY17 RESULTS

• FINAL DIVIDEND

• 2017: SOLAR PROJECT SET UP

• BUILDING TALENT

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Page 20: RESILIENCE - Proactiveinvestors UK · 2018-12-08 · This presentation and its contents may not be ... earnings per OPG share for the current or future financial years ... FY13 FY14

Power Ventures Plc

OPG RECAP :

Robust portfolio of assets

• 750 MW of operating assets

• PLFs ahead of sector average since commencement

• Over 90% Plant availability

Experienced Management team

• Project delivery despite headwinds

• Track record of industry leading “dark spreads”/gross margins

Attractive Sector Fundamentals

• 7-7.5% GDP growth

• UDAY, Demonetisation

• IEA forecasts 260 GW of new capacity needed

Focus on cash flow and value

• Dividend policy of 15% growing to 33% in medium term

• Chennai debt repayments and Gujarat new schedule

Growth & Diversification

• 62 MW solar on track

• 124 MW pipeline

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