residents only update from 1996 2.73 million update of israel projection from 1990 2.41 million...

Residents Only Update from 19962.73 Million

Update of Israel Projection from 1990

2.41 Million

Update of 1997 PA Projectionwith Official Data

3.06 Million

Arab PopulationIn the West Bank & Gaza

The Million and a Half Person Gap

1997 PA Census & Projection3.83 Million

Bennett Zimmerman & Roberta Seid, Ph.D.

Copyright 2004This document may not be forwarded, shared, or copied

without the expressed written consent of its authors.

A presentation at

The American Enterprise Institute*Washington, DC

January 10, 2005

* The information presented here represents the views of its authors only. The American Enterprise Institute makes no representation as to the accuracy of this study.

USA Research TeamBennett ZimmermanRoberta Seid, Ph.D.Michael Wise, Ph.D.

Israel Research TeamYoram Ettinger

Brig. Gen (Ret.) David ShahafProf. Ezra SoharDr. David PassigAvraham Shvout



USA Research Team

Bennett Zimmerman Roberta Seid, Ph.D. Michael Wise, Ph.D.

• Project Leader• Strategy Consultant Bain• Harvard MBA

Yoram Ettinger

Israel Research Team

Brig. Gen. David Shahaf Prof. Ezra Sohar Dr. David Passig Avraham Shvout(Ret.)

• Historian • Mathematical Statistician• Physicist

• Israel Team Leader• Consultant to Israel Cabinet/Knesset Members• Former Consul General

• Former Commander Civil Administration West Bank• Conducted 1990 Israel Population Survey of West Bank and Gaza

• Expert in mathematical forecasting techniques

• Demographer/Geographer of West Bank since 1980• Part of 1990 Population Survey Team for West Bank

• Published research papers on demographics in Israel, W. Bank, and Gaza since 1970

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Millions of People• PA Dec 1997 Census Population 2.89 Million

• PA Projects Compound Annual Growth Rate of 4.75% (Highest in the World)

• Mid-year 2004 Population reaches 3.83 Million

The Current Model1997 PA Census and Projection

(1997 - 2004)

Source: Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics 1997 Census and Projection (2)

• PA population + Israeli Arab population (1.3 million) means Number of Arabs = Number of Jews in Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza.

• Israel faces a demographic threat: Jews will rapidly become a minority.

• PA Reports for population and growth . . .

. . . did not match the declines in fertility and birthrates seen throughout the Middle East

. . . did not match the numerous reports citing emigration from the PA territories

. . . did not match the picture we saw when visiting the areas in different trips over the years

. . . did not match independent reports of population in West Bank and Gaza urban areas

• Figures released by the PA were never corroborated by any independent body



Why we formed a team

The PA was due for an audit

“Palestinian vs. Palestinian”

Palestinian Central Bureau Of Statistics (PCBS)• PA 1997 Census & Projection

• Published growth assumptions for births, deaths, and migration

• Unmodified by actual data

Palestinian Authority MinistryOf Health (PA MOH)• Reports births and deaths in West Bank in Gaza annually

• Annual statistics consistently below PCBS figures

Palestinian Central ElectionCommission (CEC)• Statistics on eligible voters 18 and above. -- October 2004 Municipal & Presidential Elections -- PA Parliamentary Elections January 1996



Primary Palestinian Sources

Israel Central Bureau of Statistics (ICBS)• Annual population statistics for Israel

• Annual population statistics for West Bank and Gaza through mid 1990s

Israel Civil Administration forWest Bank and Gaza• Formal census of West Bank and Gaza in 1967• Issued resident ID Cards• Maintained school records• Population studies: -- last for West Bank in 1990 -- last for Gaza in 1987

Israel Border Police• Records of Exits/Entries at all Israel, West Bank and Gaza borders

Israel Ministry of Interior• Records of ID Cards issued to internal migrants from West Bank and Gaza into Israel



Primary Israeli Sources

Population measurement requires accurate recording and verification of:

Base Population

plus Births

less Deaths

plus Immigration

less Emigration

equals Base Population -- End Period

We investigated the 1997 PA Projection each year, factor by factor.



Methodology

120

80

40

Births/YearPA 1997 Projection

160

2003200220012000199919981997199619950

Thousands of Births/Year

120

80

40


vs. Births reported by PA Ministry of Health

160

2003200220012000199919981997199619950

= PA 1997 Projection

= PA Ministry of Health


3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

PA Ministry of Health Statistics

Natural Growth Rates(Birth Rate less Death Rate)

as published annually4.0%

2001200019991998199719960

• The PA Ministry of Health also published each year a figure for natural growth rate (Birth Rate less Death Rate) for the West Bank and Gaza.

Natural Growth Rates

5.0%

3.7%

3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0%

2.6%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

PA Ministry of Health Statistics

Natural Growth Ratesas modified in 2002 & 2003

4.0%

2001200019991998199719960

• Retroactive Alteration of Growth Rates: In 2002, the PA MOH changed previously released growth rates to match the natural growth assumptions contained in the original PA Projection.

• Growth Rate fall to 2.4%: In 2003, the PA Ministry of Health reported that natural growth rates had fallen to 2.4% for the West Bank and Gaza.

Natural Growth Rate

5.0%

20032002

3.7% 3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.6% 3.6% 3.7%

2.4%

120

80

40


vs. Births Reported by PA Ministry of Health

vs. Updated Israel Projection160


2003200220012000199919981997199619950


= PA Ministry of Health

• The PA Ministry of Health’s back-reported births were significantly higher than births recorded by Israel between 1990 and 1993. We applied this difference to align 1994 – 2003 PA births to previous data

19941993199219911990

= Updated Israel Projection

120

80

40

160

200320022001200019991998199719961994/5

0

Net Entries(Exits)In Thousands/Year

Immigration/YearPA 1997 Projection

120

80

40

160

Net Entries (Exits)In Thousands/Year

200320022001200019991998199719961995

0

• Border data shows consistent net emigration -- After Gulf War, there was modest +25 thousand immigration -- After Oslo I, there was a one year positive balance when PA leadership entered area

• Since 1995, any new immigrants were counterbalanced by a greater number of emigrants.


= Actual Israel Border Data

19941993199219911990

Immigration/YearPA 1997 Projection

vs. Actual Israel Border Data

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0

Millions of People

PA Announces Upward Adjustment in Base(1996 – Mid-Year 1998)

Dec 1996

PA Ministry ofHealth

2.270 Million

Dec 1997

PBS Final Results1997 Census

(released in 1998)

2.602 Million14.6% Increase

Mid-1998

PBS StatisticsDec 1997 Census

+ Jerusalem+ ‘Post Enumeration’

2.895 Million11.3% Increase

Dec 1996

Israel 1990Civil Admin

Projection

1.974 Million 2.114 Million

Dec 1996

ICBS Yearbook

B.efore C.ensus C.ensus E.ra


The Million and a Half Person GapAppendix A

Census CoverageA comprehensive population enumeration always depends on the essence and the nature of the census. In general, population

censuses cover all persons residing within the limits of a certain country, at a specific time. A population census is based on the following:

1. De-facto Approach: Based on the enumeration of individuals according to their existence in the area of enumeration at census moment, regardless of their usual place of residence.

2. De-jure Approach: Based on the enumeration of individuals according to their usual place of residence, regardless of their presence at the census moment.

For the first ever Palestinian census, the de-facto approach was adopted with some exceptions. The census count included the following categories:

A – The Categories underwent complete data collection.1. All persons present in the Palestinian territories on the census reference date, irrespective of nationality, purpose of stay and

place of residence in the Palestinian territories.2. All temporarily living abroad (for one year prior to the night of the reference date) and who have a usual place of residence

in the Palestinian territories. Those persons are enumerated as parts of their households.3. All Palestinians studying abroad irrespective of the study period and the period of stay abroad along with all Palestinian

detainees in the Israeli jails regardless of the detention period.

B – Palestinian abroad: Categories underwent data collection on their numbers and sex only This category includes Palestinians who live abroad for more than one year and who have a usual place of residence in the Palestinian territories and have identity cards (except for students and detainees enumerated in the previous category) irrespective of the purpose of stay abroad.

Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics Census CoverageDe-Facto or De-Jure?

http://www.pcbs.org/phc_97/phc_covr.aspx

The 13% Gap Between Residents Only & PA 1997 Census Base

Millions of People

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.51990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04

• In 1996, the PA and Israeli average for residents was 2.12 million -- 300 thousand, or 13%, less than level reported in the PA 1997 Census. -- This figure was confirmed by PA Voting Records from January 1996 which yielded a total Population of 2.139 million.

• In 1997, the PA increased the base by 300 thousand, the same level that has been acknowledged as the number of Palestinians living abroad. -- In September 1993, the World Bank estimated Palestinians living abroad at 300 – 350 thousand. -- In October 2004, the PA Central Election Commission Voting Report confirmed the number of Palestinians living abroad at exactly 13%.

Israel Civil AdminProjectionsEnd 1996 1.974 MEnd 1995 1.922 M

PA CensusDecember 1997 2.602 M

backdated to December 1995 2.451 MPA Ministry of Health

Year-End 1996 2.270 MBackdated to Begin 1996 2.206 M

Israel CBSEnd 1996 2.114 MEnd 1995 2.042 M X

PA Voting Records January 1996 2.139M

X

{

13% Gap



The Population Scenarios






3.06 Million






Update of Israel Projection from 1990

2.41 Million


3.06 Million


4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Millions of People

3.83 MillionPA 1997 ProjectionCompound Annual

Growth Rate 4.75%

Source: Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics 1997 Census and Projection (2) PA Ministry of Health Reports 1996 – 2003 (5) Border Data for Jordan, Egypt & Ben Gurion Airport (6)

Scenario #1: Update of 1997 PA Projection with Official Data(1998 - 2004)

3.06 MillionScenario#1

Compound AnnualGrowth Rate

2.72%

Scenario #1: Update of 1997 PA Projection“The ¾ Million Person Gap”

Millions of People

4.0

3.5

3.0

Birth Error 216K

PA 1997 Projection for 2004

3.83 Million

Scenario #1: Updated Palestinian

Projection 3.06 Million

Migration 289KError

Jerusalem 210KDouble-Count

Death 28K

} “The ¾ MillionPerson Gap”

Post Enumeration 86K

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Millions of People

3.83 Million

PA 1997 ProjectionCompound Annual

Growth Rate 4.75%

3.06 MillionScenario#1


2.72%

2.73 Million Scenario#2Compound Annual

Growth Rate 3.21%

Source: Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics 1997 Census and Projection (2) PA Ministry of Health Reports 1996 – 2003, PA Voting Report for January 1996 (5) Border Data for Jordan, Egypt & Ben Gurion Airport (6) Israel Central Bureau of Statistics 1996 (7)

Scenario #2: Residents Only Base Update(1996 - 2004)

Scenario #2: Residents Only Base Update from 1996“ The 1.1 Million Person Gap”

Millions of People

4.0

3.5

3.0

Birth Error 238K


3.8 Million

Scenario #2: Residents Only Base

Update2.73 Million

Migration 310KError


Death 32K

}“The 1.1 MillionPerson Gap”


2.5

PalestiniansAbroad/BaseDifference 282K

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

Millions of People

Scenario #3: Update of Israel Projection from 1990 (1990-2004)

Source: Palestine Central Bureau of Statistics 1997 Census and Projection (2) PA Ministry of Health Reports 1996 – 2003 (5) Border Data for Jordan, Egypt & Ben Gurion Airport (6) Israel Central Bureau of Statistics 1990-1993, (8) PA Ministry of Health Births 1994 – 2003 aligned to Israel data (5)

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Updated Israel Projection Compound Annual

Growth Rate 3.30%

2.41 Million

Scenario #3: Update of Israel Projection from 1990“The 1.4 Million Person Gap”

Millions of People

4.0

3.5

3.0


3.8 Million

Scenario #3: Update of

Israel Projection2.4 Million

Migration 310KError


Death 32K

}“The 1.4 MillionPerson Gap”


2.5

2.0

Births ’90-’96 165KBirths ’97-’03 393K

558K

PalestiniansAbroad/BaseDifference 292K

GazaWest Bank Total

PA 1997Projection(1997-2004)

Population ScenariosSummary of Results for 2004

1.86 MillionScenario #1Update of 1997PA Projection(1998-2004)

1.20 Million 3.06 Million

Scenario #2Residents OnlyBase Update(1996-2004)

Scenario #3Update ofIsrael Projection(1990-2004)

2.42 Million 1.41 Million 3.83 Million



2.39Million

2.67Million

3.00Million

Population Scenarios Verification with Spectrum Demographic Software*

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0Update of

1997 PA ProjectionScenario #1

Residents OnlyBase Update

Scenario #2

Update of Israel ProjectionScenario #3

3.06 Million

2.73 Million2.41 Million

Millions of People

Spectrum Software Versions

*Spectrum Policy Modeling System Version 2.28

=

Deaths

Assumes High Birthrate will continue all years of Projection (4-5% annually)

BirthsImmigration/Emigration* Double Counts

PA 1997Projection(1997-2004)3.8 Million

Assumes Low Death-Rate(0.4% to 0.5% annually)

Assumes High AnnualImmigration reaching over50 thousand a Year

Double-Counts Jerusalem Arabs counted in Israel Population Survey

A Comparison of Methodologies & Sources

Dec. 1997 Population Baseof 2.89 Million

Population Base

Uses actual Births asreported by PA Ministryof Health

Scenario #1Update ofPA Census(1998-2004)3.06 Million

Uses actual Deaths asreported by PA Ministryof Health

Uses actual data recordedat border crossings to Jordan, Egypt, and BenGurion Airport

Removes Jerusalem Double-Count

Uses PA Census Base of2.6 Million for West Bank& Gaza without question

Uses actual Births asreported by PA Ministryof Health

Scenario #2Residents OnlyBase Update(1996-2004)2.73 Million

Uses actual Deaths asreported by PA Ministryof Health


Removes Jerusalem Double-Count

Uses Residents Only Base between Israeli and PAestimates for begin-year ‘96

Base corroborated withWorld Bank data and PA Voting Records

Uses actual Births as Recorded by Israel Civil Admin ’90-’93

Adjusts PA Births ’94-2003to be consistent withpreviously recorded data

Scenario #3Update ofIsrael Projection(1990-2004)2.41 Million

Uses actual Deaths asRecorded by Israel CivilAdmin ’90-’93

Uses actual Deaths asreported by PA Ministryof Health ’94-2003


Never included JerusalemDouble-Count

Uses Israel Civil Admin.Survey from 1989/1990

Base corroborates to IsraelID Cards and School Records

*Note: None of the scenarios account for the internal migration from the West Bank and Gaza into pre-’67 Israel and Jerusalem. This migration will be subtracted as a last step after evaluation of all population scenarios.

Deaths

BASE

BirthsImmigration/Emigration* Double Counts

PA 1997Projection3.8 Million

BASE BASE BASE

A Modular Approach: Rationalization by Growth Factor

BASE

Population Base

Less 216 K

Scenario #1Update ofPA Census3.06 MillionLess 772 K

More <28 K> Less 289 KLess 210 K

Jerusalem Double-CountLess 86 K

Post Enumeration Adjustment

Scenario #2Residents OnlyBase Update2.73 MillionLess 1.093 M

Scenario #3Update ofIsrael Projection2.41 MillionLess 1.423 M

*Note: None of the scenarios account for internal migration from the West Bank and Gaza into pre-’67 Israel and Jerusalem. This figure, which is the same for all scenarios, will be subtracted as a last step after evaluation of all population scenarios.

Less 283 K(2 More Years of

Divergence)

More <32 K>(2 More Years of

Divergence)

Less 310 K(2 More Years of

Divergence)

Less 210 KJerusalem Double-Count

Less 86 KMid-Year Adjustment

Less 282 KNon-Resident Adjustment

Less 393 K’97 – 2003

Less 165 K’90 – ‘96

More <32 K> Less 310 KLess 210 K

Jerusalem Double-Count

Less 86 KMid-Year Adjustment

Less 292 KNon-Resident Adjustment

• October 2004 PA Central Election Commission Voting Report

• Israel Central Bureau of Statistics Growth Scenarios (1984 – 2002)

• Jordanian Growth as Base Line for West Bank



Corroboration of Population Scenarios

Millions of People

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

67%Registered

33%

87%Resident

13%Abroad

1.5 M 1.5 M

OtherEligible

• 1 Million Registered• 1.5 Million Eligible Voters 18 & Above

• 1.3 Million Eligible Voters Resident in Territories• 200K Eligible Voters Living Abroad

1.3M1.3M

• The PA Election report indicated there are 1.3 million adult residents in the West Bank and Gaza

PA October 2004 Central Election Commission Report

Millions of People

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0ICBS 1989 Base(Scenario #3)

+ 15 Years

PA October 2004 Voting Report (10)• 1.3 Million Eligible Voters Resident in Territories• 200K Eligible Voters Living Abroad

87%Resident

13%Abroad

1.5 M

1.15M

1.4M1.5M

1.85M

1.3M1.3M

PA Ministry Health1996 Base

(Scenario #2)+ 8 Years

Update of 1997PA Census

(Scenario #1)+ 8 Years

PCBS 2003 (Original Projection)

+ 1 Year

Which population pyramid most accurately projected the number of voters who would come of age in 2004?

The October 2004 Voting Report disqualified the original 1997 PA Projection, confirmed that the 1997 Census Base included Palestinians living abroad and demonstrated that Scenarios #2 and #3 are the only possible estimates compatible with current voter rolls in the West Bank and Gaza.

PA October 2004 Central Election Commission Report

Israel Central Bureau of Statistics Projections*(1984 – 2002)

500

1000

1500

2,000

PopulationIn Thousands

085 90 95 00 05

West Bank Population

1984

500

1000

1500

2,000


085 90 95 00 05

Gaza Population

• 1st Projection 783K 1,061K 1.7% 3.75 -10

• 2nd Projection 783K 1,136K 2.1% 5.00 -10

• 3rd Projection 783K 1,211K 2.4% 5.00 -8

• 4th Projection 783K 1,430K 3.4% 5.00 0

• 5th Projection 783K 1,550K 3.9% 6.50 0

2002

PopGrowth

Rate

TotalFertility

Rate

NetMigration/Thousand

• 1st Projection 510K 741K 2.1% 4.45 -10

• 2nd Projection 510K 789K 2.5% 5.70 -10

• 3rd Projection 510K 865K 3.0% 5.70 -6.5

• 4th Projection 510K 992K 3.8% 5.70 0

• 5th Projection 510K 1,070K 4.2% 7.20 0

1984 2002

PopGrowth

Rate

TotalFertility

Rate


*Projections based on different assumptions for Fertility Rates and Net Migration Source: ICBS, 1987 (20)

500

1000

1500

2,000


085 90 95 00 05

West Bank Population

Various

500

1000

1500

2,000


085 90 95 00 05

Gaza Population

• Scenario #1 1,600K 1,856K 2.5% N/A -4.9

• Scenario #2 1,240K 1,585K 3.1% N/A -6.3

• Scenario #3 916K 1,350K 2.7% N/A -5.0

2004

PopGrowth

Rate

TotalFertility

Rate


• ABC Scenario #1 1,000K 1,200K 3.1% N/A -2.6

• ABC Scenario #2 884K 1,150K 3.3% N/A -3.2

• ABC Scenario #3 611K 1,056K 3.9% N/A -2.5

PA1997

1

23

PA1997

123

2.42M

1.86M

1.58M

1.35M

1.41M

1.20M

1.15M

1.06M

Various 2004

PopGrowth

Rate

TotalFertility

Rate


• PA Projection and Scenario #1 are out of range• Scenario #2 is at top of range• Scenario #3 is in range

• PA Projection and Scenario #1 and Scenario #2 are out of range• Scenario #3 is in range

ICBS Projections vs. New Analyses(1984 – 2002)

Jordanian Growth as Base Line for West Bank

• As Jordan shares many characteristics and links with the West Bank, the Team used Jordan’s Natural Growth Rate for every 5 year period since 1967 to calculate a likely population for the West Bank.• Annual migration data, recorded at Israel’s borders, is added or subtracted for each year.• The final result was 1.432 million – 83 thousand above Scenario #3’s 1.35 million and 148 thousand below Scenario #2’s 1.585 million.

1.5

PopulationIn Millions

1.0

0.5

01967 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2003

1.432 Million

• Middle East: Total Fertility Rates, Birthrates, Population Growth Rates

• Worldwide Characteristics of High & Low Birth Societies



Corroboration of Population Scenarios

10

Total Fertility RateBirths/Woman

8

6

4

2

0

1970 - 75 1980 - 85 1990 - 95 2000 – 05

Total Fertility Rates (TFR)Middle Eastern Comparisons vs. PA

= Palestinian Authority

Jordan Syria Egypt Lebanon

Source: UN Population Division (16)

10

Total Fertility RateBirths/Woman

8

6

4

2

0

1970 - 75 1980 - 85 1990 - 95 2000 – 05

(with PA Ministry of Health Updates)


PAMOH

PAMOH

PAMOH PA

MOHPA

MOH

Source: UN Population Division (16)

Total Fertility Rates (TFR)Middle Eastern Comparisons vs. PA


5%

Annual Population Growth Rates

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%1970 - 75 1980 - 85 1990 - 95 2000 – 05

= Palestinian Authority UN Statistics (16)

Palestinian Authority PA 1997 Projection.(2)


Source: UN Population Reports (16)

Population Growth Rates (PGR)Middle Eastern Comparisons vs. PA

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%1970 - 75 1980 - 85 1990 - 95 2000 – 05

(with Scenarios #1, #2, #3)


UN Stats (16)

Palestinian Authority PA 1997 Projection. (2)


Source: UN Population Reports (16)

1

1

11 1

1

2

2

2

2

2

2 22

33

3 33

33

3 33 3 3 3

3

PAMOH

PAMOH

PA Ministry Of Health (5)


Population Growth Rates (PGR)Middle Eastern Comparisons vs. PA

“The World Factbook – 2004”

High Birth Societies vs. Other Factors

3rd World Med Low 1st World

• High birth societies, when ranked from top to bottom, share characteristics of high death rates, low life expectancy, high infant mortality – except for the Gaza Strip.

• The PCBS reports 3rd World statistics when it comes to births but 1st World characteristics when it comes to death and life expectancy.

• This aberration alone should have prompted an examination of statistics reported to world bodies by the PA.

Source: The CIA World Factbook 2004 (28)

Birth Births Deaths Total Infant Life Migration Pop.Rank per per Fertility Mortality/Expectancy per Growth

Thousand Thousand Rate Thousand Thousand RateNiger 1 48.91 21.51 6.83 122.66 42.18 0.00 2.67%Mali 2 47.29 19.12 6.58 117.99 45.28 0.00 2.78%Afghanistan 3 47.27 21.12 6.78 165.96 42.46 23.06 4.92%Chad 4 46.50 16.38 6.38 97.78 48.24 0.00 3.00%Uganda 5 46.31 16.61 6.64 86.15 45.28 0.00 2.97%Somalia 6 46.04 17.30 6.91 118.52 47.71 5.37 3.41%Angola 7 45.14 25.86 6.33 192.50 36.79 0.00 1.93%Liberia 8 44.81 17.86 6.16 130.51 47.93 0.00 2.70%Congo, Democratic Republic 9 44.73 14.64 6.62 94.69 49.14 -0.17 2.99%Burkina Faso 10 44.46 18.79 6.28 98.67 44.20 0.00 2.57%Malawi 11 44.35 23.01 6.04 104.23 37.48 0.00 2.14%Sierra Leone 12 43.34 20.62 5.79 145.24 42.69 0.00 2.27%Yemen 13 43.16 8.78 6.75 63.26 61.36 0.00 3.44%Benin 14 42.57 13.69 5.95 50.81 50.81 0.00 2.89%Guinea 15 42.26 15.53 5.87 91.82 49.70 -3.06 2.37%Mayotte 16 42.19 8.11 5.98 64.19 60.99 6.78 4.09%Madagascar 17 41.91 11.62 5.70 78.52 56.54 0.00 3.03%Mauritania 18 41.79 12.74 6.01 72.35 52.32 0.00 2.91%Sao Tome and Principe 19 41.36 6.89 5.80 44.58 66.63 -2.72 3.18%Gaza Strip 20 40.62 3.95 6.04 23.54 71.59 1.60 3.83%


High Birth Societies vs. Other Factors


• The same pattern is reported for the West Bank.

Birth Births Deaths Total Infant Life Migration Pop,Rank per per Fertility Mortality/Expectancy per Growth

Thousand Thousand Rate Thousand Thousand RateDjibouti 21 40.39 19.42 5.48 105.54 43.12 0.00 2.10%Gambia 22 40.30 12.08 5.46 73.48 54.79 1.57 2.98%Rwanda 23 40.01 21.86 5.55 101.68 39.18 0.00 1.82%Burundi 24 39.68 17.61 5.90 70.40 43.36 -0.06 2.20%Cote d'Ivoire 25 39.64 18.48 5.42 97.10 42.48 -0.07 2.11%Ethiopia 26 39.23 20.36 5.44 102.12 40.88 0.00 1.89%Eritrea 27 39.03 13.36 5.67 75.59 52.70 0.00 2.57%Tanzania 28 39.00 17.45 5.15 102.13 44.39 -2.06 1.95%Zambia 29 38.99 24.35 5.14 98.40 35.18 0.00 1.47%Nigeria 30 38.24 13.99 5.32 70.49 50.49 0.26 2.45%Guinea-Bissau 31 38.03 16.57 5.00 108.72 46.98 -1.57 1.99%Comoros 32 38.00 8.63 5.15 77.22 61.57 0.00 2.94%Oman 33 37.12 3.91 5.90 20.26 72.85 0.28 3.35%Equatorial Guinea 34 36.56 12.27 4.68 87.08 35.15 0.00 2.43%Laos 35 36.47 12.10 4.86 87.06 54.69 0.00 2.44%Gabon 36 36.40 11.43 4.80 54.34 56.46 0.00 2.50%Maldives 37 36.06 7.44 5.14 58.32 63.68 0.00 2.86%Mozambique 38 36.06 23.86 4.78 137.08 37.10 0.00 1.22%Sudan 39 35.79 9.37 4.97 64.05 58.13 -0.02 2.64%Senegal 40 35.72 10.74 4.84 56.53 56.56 0.20 2.52%Central African Republic 41 35.55 19.99 4.59 92.15 41.36 0.00 1.56%Cameroon 42 35.08 15.34 4.55 69.18 47.95 0.00 1.97%Guatemala 43 34.58 6.79 4.60 36.91 65.19 -1.67 2.61%Bhutan 44 34.41 13.20 4.87 102.56 53.99 0.00 2.12%Togo 45 34.36 11.64 4.79 67.66 53.05 0.00 2.27%Marshall Islands 46 33.88 4.94 4.02 30.50 69.70 -6.04 2.29%Haiti 47 33.76 13.21 4.76 74.38 51.78 -3.40 1.71%Namibia 48 33.51 21.02 4.65 69.58 40.53 0.00 1.25%West Bank 49 33.21 4.07 4.52 20.16 72.88 2.98 3.21%Iraq 50 33.09 5.66 4.40 52.71 68.26 0.00 2.74%


Low Birth Societies vs. Other Factors


• Arab societies with high life expectancy have also seen a dramatic drop in birthrate.

• Note the low Jordanian birthrate, a society that shares many characteristics with West Bank Arabs.

• Western nations have developed low birth rates matched by high life expectancy rates -- Israel and the United States have among the highest growth rates in the developed world. -- Many Western European nations have reached levels where they may begin to contract in population.

Birth Births Deaths Total Infant Life Migration Pop,Rank per per Fertility Mortality/Expectancy per Growth

Thousand Thousand Rate Thousand Thousand RatePakistan 54 31.22 8.67 4.29 74.43 62.61 -2.77 1.98%Bangladesh 59 30.03 8.52 3.15 64.32 61.71 -0.71 2.08%Saudi Arabia 62 29.74 2.66 4.11 13.70 75.23 -2.71 2.44%Syria 63 28.93 4.96 3.61 30.60 69.71 0.00 2.40%Libya 70 27.16 3.48 3.42 25.70 76.28 0.00 2.37%Egypt 84 23.84 5.30 2.95 33.90 70.71 -0.22 1.83%Turks and Caicos Islands 90 22.85 4.26 3.11 16.27 74.25 11.68 3.03%India 91 22.80 8.38 2.85 57.92 63.99 -0.07 1.44%Jordan 93 22.73 2.62 2.86 18.11 78.06 6.59 2.67%Kuwait 96 21.85 2.44 3.03 10.26 76.84 14.18 3.36%World Average 106 20.24 8.86 2.62 50.31 64.05 0.00 1.14%Lebanon 114 19.31 6.28 1.95 25.48 72.35 0.00 1.30%Israel 122 18.45 6.19 2.47 7.21 79.17 0.68 1.29%United States 160 14.13 8.34 2.07 6.63 77.43 3.41 0.92%France 175 12.34 9.06 1.85 4.31 79.44 0.66 0.39%

Final Scenario SelectionScenario #2 and Scenario #3 Win

1997 Palestinian AuthorityCensus & Projection

Scenario #1: Update of 1997 PA Projection

Scenario #2: Residents OnlyBase Update from 1996

Scenario #3: Update of Israel Projection from 1990

Octobe

r 200

4 PA

Vot

ing

Repor

t

X X

X X

X X

ICBS

Proj

ectio

ns 1

984

– 20

02

Trend

Impa

ct Ana

lysis

(TIA

)

Regio

n/W

orld

Pop

.Gro

wth R

ates

X

X

Jord

an B

ase L

ine (

W.B

ank O

nly)

• The Team evaluated each population scenario against a variety of corroborative data from Palestinian, Israeli and 3 rd Party sources to reach the following determinations:

-- Scenario #3, the Update of Israel’s Projection from 1990, and Scenario #2, the Residents Only Base Update from 1996 have the most corroboration.

-- Scenario #1, the Update of the 1997 PA Projection, is only possible if one includes Palestinians living abroad

-- The original 1997 PA Projection fails when tested against even Palestinian sources.

3.83 Million

3.06 Million

2.73 Million

2.41 Million

Internal MigrationOfficially Counted Only

1993 - 2003

• Source: Israel Ministry of Interior, November 2003

• The Team has not yet made any calculations for unofficial “illegal” immigrants into Israel. This subject deserves further examination to fully understand the population patterns for the West Bank and Gaza.

• 129,434 Residents of the West Bank and Gaza received Israeli IDs and settled in pre-’67 Israel and eastern Jerusalem.

• Another 21,303 residents from the West Bank and Gaza were in the pipeline with pending applications to receive Israeli IDs.

• This 150,737 is split approximately ¾ from the West Bank and ¼ from Gaza:

115 thousand “official” internal migration from West Bank 35 thousand “official” internal migration from Gaza 150 thousand internal migration

Most Probable 2004 Population CountWest Bank and Gaza

Scenario #2Residents OnlyBase Projection(1997-2004)

Scenario #3Update ofIsrael Projection(1990-2004)



GazaWest Bank Total

Average ofScenario #2& Scenario #3


Internal MigrationInto pre-’67 Israel& Jerusalem (30)

<115 K> <35 K> <150 K>

Final PopulationCount


• Final Population Calculation: 1.35 million for West Bank, 1.07 million for Gaza

• 60/40 Jewish to Arab Ratio Holds in Israel, West Bank & Gaza

• Jewish Population grows at same rate as Arab West Bank Population

• Israeli Arab growth rate inflated by internal migration from West Bank and Gaza



Implications & Conclusions

10

PopulationIn Millions

8

6

4

2

0

West Bank Arabs

Israeli ArabsJewish Affiliated/Recent Immigrants

Jews

Gaza Arabs

1967

Population BreakdownBy Segment(1967 –2004)

2.4 M

0.4 M

0.6 M

0.35 M

1985

3.5 M

0.75 M

0.8 M

0.5M

1990

3.9 M

0.9 M

0.95 M

0.65 M

1995

4.6 M

1.0 M

1.15 M

0.8 M

2000

5.2 M

1.2 M

1.3 M

0.95M

2003

5.4M

1.3 M

1.35 M

1.05 M

3.7 M

5.6 M

6.4 M

7.6 M

8.6 M

9.1 M

Source: Israel Central Bureau of Statistics Website, ICBS Annual Yearbook 1996, Team Average of Scenario #2 and #3 less Internal Migration Statistics from Israel Ministry of Interior (7) (30) (31) See Appendix E for detail.

100

% PopulationEntire Land

80

60

40

20

0

West Bank Arabs

Israeli Arabs

Jewish Affiliated/Recent Immigrants

Jews

Gaza Arabs

1967

64.1%

10.6%

15.8%

9.6%

1985

62.8%

13.4%

14.4%

9.4%

1990

61.5%

13.6%

14.9%

10.0%

1995

60.7%

13.2%

15.2%

10.8%

2000

60.2%

13.8%

14.9%

11.2%

2004

59.5%

14.2%

14.7%

11.5%

• Jews have maintained their demographic position in Israel and the territories since 1967. This ratio has remained stable through the years. -- Jews & Jewish affiliated groups maintain a 60% majority -- The diverse Israeli Arab group, including Druze, Christian Arabs, and Moslems, has been the fastest growing segment in Israeli society. -- The proportion of Palestinian Arabs in the West Bank and Gaza has remained stable at one quarter of the population in the land.

• Many analysts count recent non-Jewish immigrants (who are related to Jews) as “Palestinian” even though they, along with other Israeli citizens, including Israeli Arabs, fully participate in the State, its army, and its institutions.

• Israel is more multicultural, but not more “Palestinian Arab”.

Population Breakdown(1967 –2004)

Population BreakdownIsrael, the West Bank, and Gaza

(2004)

JewsJewsJews

West BankArabs

IsraeliArabsGaza

Arabs

IsraeliArabs

West BankArabs

IsraeliArabs

Israel

81% Jewish

4:1 Jewish/Arab Ratio

Israel& West Bank

67% Jewish


Israel& West Bank

& Gaza

60% Jewish


Jewish Affiliated

Source: Israel Central Bureau of Statistics Website, ICBS Annual Yearbook 1996, Team Average of Scenario #2 and #3 less Internal Migration Statistics from Israel Ministry of Interior (7) (30) (31) See Appendix E for detail.

5.0%


4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0%

Population Growth RatesGrowth Rates by Segment

1990 – 2004*

IsraeliJews

IsraeliArabs

WestBank Arabs

GazaArabs

2.5%

3.1%

2.7%

3.9%

Source: Appendix E for detail.

* Growth Rates calculated over 13 year period from year-end 1990 to year-end 2003

5.0%


4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0%


1990 – 2004

IsraeliJews

IsraeliArabs

WestBank Arabs

GazaArabs

2.5%

3.1%

2.7%

3.9%

4.4%

4.7%

PopulationGrowth Rates

Forecastby the PAin 1997

Source: Appendix E for detail & (2)

5.0%


4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0%


1990 – 2004

IsraeliJews

IsraeliArabs

WestBank Arabs

GazaArabs

2.5%

3.1%

after impact of Internal Migration . . .• 115 thousand from West Bank into pre-’67 Israel• 35 thousand from Gaza into pre-’67 Israel

3.5%

2.1%

2.7%

5.0%


4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0%


2000 – 2004*

IsraeliJews

IsraeliArabs

WestBank Arabs

GazaArabs

1.7%

3.1%

1.8%

3.0%

• All groups have experienced a slowdown in growth over the past few years except for the Israeli Arab sector• Growth rate in West Bank is no faster than growth rate for Israeli Jews• The difference in growth rates of the listed groups are low enough that demographic change will be slow and gradual

Source: Appendix E for detail

* Growth Rates calculated over 3 year period from year-end 2000 to year-end 2003

5.0%


4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0%


2000 - 2004

IsraeliJews

IsraeliArabs

WestBank Arabs

GazaArabs

1.7%

3.1%

1.8%

3.0%

Every 25 thousand annual increase in Jewish immigration . . . . . . Increases the Jewish growth rate by 0.5%

Phases of Population GrowthWest Bank

(1950-2004)

1950 1960 1970

Jordanian Period ’52-61 (20) (33)

-- Low Growth 0.9% Rate -- Steady Emigration

Early Israeli Period ’67-’85 -- Medium Growth 1.8% -- Health Improvements

Post-Oslo Period ’00–‘04 -- Low Medium Growth 1.8% -- Hostilities -- Still Lower Birthrates -- Steady Emigration

1980 1990 2000

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%• Life Expectancy Up• Infant Mortality Down

-- Steady Emigration

Late Israeli Period ’85-’95 -- High Growth 3.5% -- Economic Growth -- Some Years of Immigration

Oslo Period ’95-’00 -- Medium Growth 2.2% -- Lowering Birthrates -- Steady Emigration

The “Swedish Model”Stage 1: Agricultural society. High Birth and High Death RateStage 2: Improvements in hygiene/medicine/nutrition lower Mortality RateStage 3: Birth rates drop. Mortality Rates drop again.Stage 4: Forces in Balance (or Negative Growth as in Europe today)

• Growth rates in the West Bank are experiencing the normal stages of population development

• Growth rates for the West Bank are approaching levels of a developed Western society and are now equal to growth rates for Israeli Jews.


Projections are often wrong.

The Team found that the PA’s growth assumptions in the West Bank and Gaza did not occur for even one year during the period from 1997 through 2004.

By applying the PA’s erroneous assumptions over many years, the error in population forecasting compounds exponentially. These errors have created a Million and a Half Person Gap between what is commonly cited for Arab population in the West Bank and Gaza and what our data shows to be the 2004 population: 2.4 Million instead of the reported 3.8 million.

In the Team’s research we found:

-- Less Births

-- Lower Fertility Rates

-- Net Emigration

-- Internal Migration

-- Double-Count

-- Inclusion of Non-Residents

Palestinian Arab PopulationIn the West Bank & Gaza


Summary of Findings

Demographers should ask the following Four Questions of the PA:

#1) Why did the PA Central Bureau of Statistics not update its forecast with PA Ministry of Health birth data? #2) Why did the PA not use net emigration figures in place of the forecasted 1.5% annual immigration into the West Bank and Gaza? #3) Why does the PA not report a de facto residents only population figure for the West Bank and Gaza? #4) Why does the PA retroactively restate birth data and growth statistics that differ from annually reported figures?

Given that the topic of demography in the West Bank and Gaza is sensitive we anticipate intense scrutiny of our work. We welcome that examination and demand only that the same scrutiny be applied to the original PA Projection.



A Final Word

In USA:Mr. Bennett ZimmermanPh: 310-617-4180 E-mail: [email protected]

The Team would like to acknowledge the generous support of Mr. Peter Mandel who helped make this study possible.

We are also grateful to Nick Eberstadt of the American Enterprise Institute and Murray Feshbach of the Wilson Institute for the early review and encouragement of our work.

In Israel:Mr. Yoram EttingerPh: 011-972-54-467-1828E-mail: [email protected]



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residents only update from 1996 2.73 million update of israel projection from 1990 2.41 million...

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