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RESIDENTIAL LANDSUPPLY MONITORING

PROJECT

G21 REGION(GOLDEN PLAINS - SOUTH EAST)

June 2015

Final

Spatial Economics

Residential Land Supply Monitoring Project (G21 Region) – Golden Plains, 2015 2

Principal Author: Peter MarshallReviewed by: Dale Stokes (Director)

1/06/2015

Spatial Economics Pty LtdABN: 56 134 066 783

[email protected]


CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1.0 INTRODUCTION1.1 Context1.2 Purpose1.3 G21 Land Supply Reports

2.0 APPROACH & METHODOLOGY3.0 RECENT ACTIVITY

3.1 Residential Building Approvals3.2 Residential Lot Construction

3.2.1 Minor Infill Lot Construction3.2.2 Broadhectare Lot Construction3.2.3 Rural Residential Lot Construction

4.0 RESIDENTIAL LAND SUPPLY4.1 Minor Infill Supply (Vacant Urban Lots)4.2 Broadhectare Supply4.3 Potential Residential Land Supply4.4 Rural Residential Supply

5.0 PROJECTED DEMAND6.0 ADEQUACY OF LAND STOCKS7.0 RESIDENTIAL TABLESRESIDENTIAL SUPPLY MAPSGLOSSARY OF TERMS


LIST OF TABLESTable 1: Residential Lot Potential by Supply Type, March 2015Table 2: Anticipated Lot Construction Activity – Broadhectare, 2015Table 3(a): Estimated Years of Residential Broadhectare Land Supply, 2015 –

VIF2014 Demand ScenarioTable 3(b): Estimated Years of Residential Broadhectare Land Supply, 2015 –

iD Consulting Demand ScenarioTable 3(c): Estimated Years of Residential Broadhectare Land Supply, 2015 –

Lot Construction Trend Demand ScenarioTable 4: Minor Infill Lot Construction Activity, July 2006 to March 2015Table 5: Broadhectare Lot Construction Activity, July 2006 to March 2015Table 6: Low Density Residential Lot Construction Activity, July 2006 to

March 2015Table 7: Rural Living Lot Construction Activity, July 2006 to March 2015Table 8: Minor Infill (vacant lots) Supply by Lot Size Cohort, March 2015Table 9: Broadhectare Lot Potential and Anticipated Development Timing

(lots), 2015Table 10: Broadhectare Stocks – No Timing or Yield, 2015Table 11: Future Rural Residential Stock (Hectares), 2015Table 12(a): Occupied and Vacant Rural Residential Lot Stock by Zone Type

(hectares), 2015Table 12(b): Occupied and Vacant Rural Residential Lot Stock by Zone Type

(lots), 2015Table 13(a): Estimated and Projected Population, 2011 to 2031Table 13(b): Estimated and Projected Number of Dwellings, 2011 to 2031Table 13(c): Projected Average Annual Change in the Number of Persons and

Dwellings, 2015 to 2031Table 13(d): Projected Average Annual Percentage Change in the Number of

Persons and Dwellings, 2015 to 2031LIST OF GRAPHSGraph 1: Number of Residential Building ApprovalsGraph 2: Number of Residential Lots Constructed by Supply Type, July 2006

to March 2015Graph 3: Average Annual Number of Residential Lots Constructed by

Suburb, July 2006 to March 2015Graph 4: Parent Lot Size of Minor Infill Lot Subdivision, July 2006 to March

2015Graph 5: Minor Infill Supply – Number of Vacant Zoned Residential

Allotments, by Lot Size Cohort, 2015Graph 6: Stock of Vacant ‘rural residential’ Allotments, 2015


Graph 7: Historic and Projected Demand for Residential Dwellings, 2006 to2031

Graph 8: Adequacy of Broadhectare Land Stocks – Bannockburn, 2015LIST OF MAPSMap 1: Residential Land Supply Areas - MeredithMap 2: Residential Land Supply Areas - LethbridgeMap 3: Residential Land Supply Areas – BannockburnMap 4: Urban Centre Boundaries – Golden Plains


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The following report (residential land component – Geelong) forms part of theG21 Regional Growth Plan (Growth Plan) Implementation Plan. The Growth Planmanages growth and land use pressures to 2050 for the G21 Region whichincludes the geographic areas of the City of Greater Geelong, Colac-OtwayShire, Surf Coast Shire, Borough of Queenscliffe and the southern section ofGolden Plains Shire. The Growth Plan identified four key actions to beinvestigated as part of the Implementation Plan. This report forms part of onethese four actions, namely the provision of:

“… a Residential and Industrial Land Supply Report and a Land SupplyMonitoring and Reporting Tool that will enable more accuratereporting and monitoring of land supply across the region.”

The following is an update of the residential land supply assessment undertakenin 2013 for the southern component are of the Golden Plains Shire.Recent ActivityAs measured from July 2006 to July 2014 residential building approval activitywithin the Golden Plains South-East SLA has averaged 152 per annum, theamount of building approval activity as measured on an annual basis hasillustrated a consistent increasing trend.From July 2006 to March 2015 there was an average annual residential lotconstruction of 148. Of this lot construction (46%) were broadhectare lots,followed by rural residential lot construction at 44% and 10% minor infill.The majority (89%) of residential lot construction activity was located withinBannockburn, followed by Lethbridge (4%) and Inverleigh (2%).Projected DemandProjected dwelling requirements have been sourced from VIF2014 and iDConsulting. Projected dwelling requirements sourced from VIF2014 indicate thatfrom 2015 to 2031 there will be a total dwelling requirement of 2,823 (166average per annum) for the Golden Plains South East Region. For the iDConsulting projections indicate that from 2015 to 2031 there will be a totaldwelling requirement of 2,651 (156 average per annum).It is estimated that of the total dwelling demand that within the urban centre ofBannockburn, 46% of the dwelling requirements will be for broadhectareallotments.Residential Land SupplyAcross the Golden Plains South-East Region as at March 2015, in total there is aresidential lot supply of approximately 3,206. This is comprised of:

483 zoned broadhectare/major infill lots (15% of supply); 131 vacant urban residential lots (4% of supply); 2,276 designated potential residential lots (71% of supply); and


316 vacant rural residential lots (10% of supply).As at March 2015, there was a residential lot capacity within zoned broadhectaresites of approximately 483, of which 66% (319 lots) is located in Bannockburnand 34% (164 lots) in Lethbridge.Within the Golden Plains South-East Region, there is an estimated lot potentialwithin Future/Potential Residential areas of approximately 2,276 – all of which islocated in Bannockburn.As at March 2015, there was 131 minor infill lots identified. Of these lots, 94 weresized less than 1,200sqm or 72% of the identified lots.As at March 2015 across the Golden Plains South-East Region there was a totallot stock of rural residential allotments of 2,119. Of this stock, 316 lots werevacant, a lot vacancy rate of 15%.The location of the majority of rural residential lots across the municipalityincludes:

Bannockburn - total 615 lots (lot vacancy of 16%); Teesdale - total 556 lots (lot vacancy of 10%); Dereel - total 303 lots (lot vacancy of 19%); Inverleigh - total 228 lots (lot vacancy of 17%); and Batesford - total 222 lots (lot vacancy of 19%).

Of the vacant rural residential lot stock the total area is approximately 731hectares.A total of 985 hectares of future rural residential land stocks have been identified,of which 193 hectares is for the purpose of future LDRZ development and 792hectares for RLZ.Adequacy of Land StocksAnalysis has been undertaken to estimate the years of residentialbroadhectare/major infill land supply for the urban centre of Bannockburn. Inestimating the years of residential land supply only major infill, zonedbroadhectare and potential (unzoned) residential land supply types areconsidered.Three projected demand scenarios are used to assess the years of residentialland stocks, the outcomes are summarised below.Years of Supply – VIF2014 Population Projection Demand ScenarioIn terms of zoned broadhectare and major infill residential land stocks it isestimated based on the identified supply and projected demand, there aresufficient land stocks to satisfy 4 years of future demand in Bannockburn.In terms of potential residential (unzoned) land supply stocks, there is sufficientland to satisfy over 25 years of projected demand in Bannockburn.Years of Supply – iD Consulting Population Projection Demand Scenario


Using In terms of zoned broadhectare and major infill residential land stocks it isestimated based on the identified supply and projected demand, there aresufficient land stocks to satisfy 4 years of future demand in Bannockburn.In terms of potential residential (unzoned) land supply stocks, there is sufficientland to satisfy over 25 years of projected demand in Bannockburn.Years of Supply – Historic Trend Based Demand ScenarioIn terms of zoned broadhectare and major infill residential land stocks it isestimated based on the identified supply and projected demand, there aresufficient land stocks to satisfy 4 years of future demand in Bannockburn.In terms of potential residential (unzoned) land supply stocks, there is sufficientland to satisfy over 25 years of projected demand in Bannockburn.

It is considered that there is an immediate need for additional zonedbroadhectare residential land supply stocks within Bannockburn as there only 4years of zoned supply. There is ample land identified for future residentialdevelopment purposes within Bannockburn.


1.0 INTRODUCTION1.1 ContextIn 2013, Spatial Economics completed a set of reports on the status of landsupply for the G21 region for both residential and industrial land. This report(residential land component) provides an update to the reports produced for G21.There are three separate land supply reports detailing the residential landdemand and supply situation for the municipal areas of Greater Geelong, SurfCoast and the southern component of the Golden Plains Shire. The data has notbeen updated for the Colac-Otway Shire or for the Borough of Queenscliffe.An online/web based G21 Land Supply Monitor has been updated(g21.spatialeconomics.com.au) which allows users to interrogate the land supplyinformation at either a site level or generate custom statistical reports at anygeographic level across the G21 Region. In addition, it allows the user to visuallyrepresent the land supply information on a site by site basis. The data for 2013remains accessible and the updated data is shown for the municipalities ofGeelong, Surf Coast and Golden Plains (southern component).1.2 PurposeThe monitoring of land supply is a key tool to assist in the management anddevelopment of growth within the G21 Region. The primary purpose of thiscomponent of the Implementation Plan (land supply monitoring) is to improve themanagement of urban growth by ensuring that councils, public utilities,government and the development industry have access to up-to-date andaccurate information on residential and industrial land availability, developmenttrends, new growth fronts, and their implications for planning and infrastructureinvestment.These Land Supply Reports provide accurate, consistent and updatedintelligence on residential and industrial land supply, demand and consumption.This in turn assists decision-makers in:

maintaining an adequate supply of residential and industrial land for futurehousing and employment purposes;

providing information to underpin strategic planning in urban centres;

linking land use with infrastructure and service planning and provision;

taking early action to address potential land supply shortfalls andinfrastructure constraints; and

contributing to the containment of public sector costs by the planned,coordinated provision of infrastructure to service the staged release ofland for urban development.

1.3 G21 Land Supply ReportsThe Land Supply Reports (Residential and Industrial) for the City of GreaterGeelong, Surf Coast Shire, and the southern component of the Golden PlainsShire are available online at www.G21regionalgrowthplan.com.au


Interactive online land supply maps are also available. The G21 Land SupplyMonitor enables users to search for specific projects, generate statistical reportsand interrogate the land supply information on a parcel by parcel basis.It includes other related spatial information layers including aerial imagery,zoning, planning scheme overlays and administrative boundaries. It allows usersto search for specific land supply areas by region, municipality, street or address.


2.0 APPROACH AND METHODOLOGYThe following provides a brief outline of the major methodologies and approach inthe assessment of recent residential lot construction, residential land supplyareas, dwelling demand projections and determination of assessing adequacy ofresidential land stocks.Future Dwelling RequirementsThe Victorian State Government population and household projections - Victoriain Future 2014 (VIF2014) provide a sound basis for comparison to other potentialalternative dwelling projections as they are developed in the context of Statepopulation growth. For these reports we have also used the Id Consultingpopulation and dwelling forecasts. For strategic planning purposes it is prudentto use a range of demand scenarios to test the requirements of land supply. Inthis report we have used three demand scenarios for residential dwellings:

dwelling requirements contained in VIF 2014;

dwelling requirements contained in Id Consulting 2015: and

demand based on constant broadhectare lot construction - sourced asaverage construction since July 2006 to March 2015.

Supply Type DefinitionsFor this project, there are three major supply types considered for residentialland: broadhectare; established urban area; and rural residential.

Broadhectare is defined as new development on greenfield sites (sites thathave not been used for urban development previously or previouslysubdivided for normal density development), typically on the fringe of theestablished urban area.Major Infill is defined as undeveloped land or sites identified forredevelopment within the existing urban area, zoned for residentialdevelopment, and parent lot or existing lot greater than 5,000sqm and withan expected lot/dwelling yield greater than 10.Minor Infill (Vacant Urban Lots) is defined as vacant land within theexisting urban area or within broadhectare land release areas, zoned forresidential development, and existing lot sized less than 5,000sqm.Potential Residential is land identified by the relevant municipal authorityfor future residential development and current zoning not supportive of‘normal density’ residential development.UGZ (PSP Required) is land which has an ‘Urban Growth Zone’ applied,but a precinct structure plan has not yet been approved. It is expected thatthe majority of this land will be used for residential purposes.Rural Residential is defined through the zoning, in particular Low DensityRural Residential (LDRZ) and Rural Living (RLZ) zones.Future Rural Residential is land identified by the relevant municipalauthority for future rural residential development and current zoning not


supportive such residential development. Future rural residential lands canbe for the purpose of either Low Density Rural Residential (LDRZ) or RuralLiving (RLZ) development.

In the residential land supply assessments for Surf Coast and the southernsection of Golden Plains, both broadhectare and Major infill supply types havebeen merged and assessed as a combined supply source.Residential Lot ConstructionResidential lot construction has been determined via the assessment of theresidential cadastre and the application of this cadastre to the land supply typesidentified above.A constructed lot is defined by the year of construction and the finalisation ofcertificate of title.Construction activity has been assessed on an annual basis as at July of eachyear from 2006 to 2014, additional analysis has been included to identify lotconstruction to March 2015.Lot YieldsLot yields have been established on a parcel by parcel basis for the followingland supply types: major infill, broadhectare and potential residential (unzoned).In establishing the lot yield for each individual land parcel the followinginformation was used: incidence and location of native vegetation, zoning, naturalfeatures such as creeks, escarpments, floodways, localised current/recentmarket yields, ability to be sewered, existing studies such as structure plans,municipal strategic statements etc.In addition to site specific issues, ‘standard’ land development take-outs areemployed, including local and regional. The amount/proportion of such take-outsare dependent on the site of the land parcel i.e. a 1ha site will have less take-outs than say a 50ha site. Further intelligence and verification is sourced fromlocal council planning officers.A small number of supply sites have been allocated a zero lot yield due to anumber of varying factors, these include but not limited to:

unlikely to be developed over the next 15 years due to issues such assignificant ownership fragmentation on relatively small parcels of land;

subdivision restricted until sewerage is provided;

the site is within an area of low demand and is unlikely to be developedwith any certainty within the foreseeable future; and

potential/likely lot density could be low.Sites with a zero lot yield have been identified and are summarised by locationand area.


Development TimingStaging for lot construction or development timing has been established for fourbroad time periods, namely:

0 to 2 years (2015–2016); 3 to 5 years (2017–2019); 6 to 10 years (2020–2024); 11 years or more (2025 and beyond); and No timing.

Land identified for development over the next 2 years is available for residentialpurposes, and the required permits to subdivide the land generally exist and arebeing implemented.Land parcels identified for development in 3 to 5 years are normally zoned, ormay have rezonings finalised or approaching finalisation. They may also havepermits to subdivide the land. Some degree of confidence can be applied to thetiming and staging of these developments.Confidence about lot yields and staging declines for developments proposedbeyond 5 years as it is industry practice to regard developments beyond thisperiod with less certainty in terms of exact staging, timing and yields.A no timing category has been established for potential residential developmentsites that are within low demand areas (generally small outlying settlements).These sites typically in addition are allocated a zero potential lot yield. They areidentified as potential and are measured by area.Where land has been identified as ‘Potential Residential’ there are no associatedtimings, as timing cannot be confidently applied until such time the land is zonedto allow residential development to occur. Similarly, land which is within an UrbanGrowth Zone, where a precinct structure plan has not been approved, falls into asimilar category. At such time a precinct structure plan has been prepared andapproved, potential timings of residential development associated to these areascan be applied with a higher degree of confidence.It should also be noted that timing of lot construction is cyclical, and highlydependent on underlying demand, economic cycles and industry capacity. Thiscan mean that stated development intentions will vary from on-the-groundconstruction activity over time and by location. However, it is highly accurate interms of the general direction and amount of growth.Development timings have only been established for both major infill land supplystocks and broadhectare land.Anticipated development timings are primarily sourced from existing planningpermits, historic and current market activity, knowledge of industry capacity,projected demand and most importantly information and guidance from localcouncil staff and the land development industry (UDIA Vic – Geelong Chapter).


Rural ResidentialRural Residential allotments have been established via the assessment of thecadastre and zoning information. All allotments zoned either Rural Living (RLZ)and Low Density Residential (LDRZ) is included. This information has primarilybeen assessed via aerial imagery interpretation and validation via the pertinentmunicipality’s valuation database.Land Supply Assessment AreasFor the purpose of this report land supply assessment areas have been based onbroad geographic regions or specific townships (titled as urban centres). Thefollowing regions and urban centres have specific land assessment areas (yearsof supply):

City of Greater Geelong:o Geelong Urban Region (These sub-regions of Geelong remain

geographically the same as in the 2013 report. This regionencompassed the Statistical Local Areas (SLAs) of Corio – Inner,Geelong West, Newtown, Geelong, South Barwon and GreaterGeelong Pt- C in the 2013 report. VIF and iD Consulting now reportby SA2 and suburbs respectively. The current data has beenassessed to reflect this previous division, hence the two reports arecomparable); and

o Bellarine Peninsula Region (comprised the SLAs of GreaterGeelong– Pt B and Bellarine Inner in 2013 and again the currentdata has been assessed so that this region remains geographicallythe same as in 2013 and hence the 2013 and 2015 reports arecomparable).

Surf Coast Shire:o Torquay – Jan Juc;o Winchelsea;

Golden Plains Shire:o Bannockburn.

The land supply assessment results in quantitative assessments of the supply,demand and adequacy (year’s supply of land stocks).Adequacy (Years of Supply)With the amount of supply and demand estimated, adequacy is described inyears of supply. For example it can be stated that there are X years of supplybased on projected demand within a given urban centre or region and by supplytype (i.e. zoned and unzoned). In the last decade the Victorian State Governmenthas used a broad benchmark for land supply for residential land at a municipallevel of at least 15 years.In assessing the number of years of broadhectare/major infill and designatedpotential (unzoned) residential land supply, only a component of the totalprojected demand is apportioned to estimate future demand. The remainder is


apportioned for future demand for other forms of residential supply such as minorinfill and rural residential.Adequacy has been determined for the land supply assessment areas listedabove as well as for the total municipal area of Geelong.


RESIDENTIAL LAND – GOLDEN PLAINS (South-East Region)This section of the report covers the trends and shifts in building activity acrossthe region of Golden Plains that was formerly defined by the South-EastStatistical Local Area (SLA) of the municipal area of Golden Plains and providesan insight into proposed potential residential development activity.The information in this section has been compiled following a number ofcomprehensive consultations with key representatives from the Shire of GoldenPlains. It is supported by datasets from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.3.0 RECENT ACTIVITYThis section of the report details the recent activity of residential lot constructionand dwelling approvals achieved across the Golden Plains South-East SLA.Residential lot construction activity is detailed from July 2006 to March 2015 andis presented at an urban centre level. Residential lot construction is furtheranalysed by supply type/location, namely:

Minor Infill; Broadhectare; and Rural Residential.

3.1 Residential Building ApprovalsAs measured from July 2006 to July 2014 residential building approval activitywithin the Golden Plains South-East SLA has averaged 152 per annum, theamount of building approval activity as measured on an annual basis hasillustrated a consistent increasing trend. In 2006/07 there were 99 residentialbuilding approvals, increasing each year to over double in 2011/12 at 224approvals. In the last two years building approvals have been above the longterm average of 188 in 2012/13 and 155 in 2013/14.Graph 1 illustrates the amount of building approval activity on an annual basis forthe Golden Plains South-East Region.


Graph 1: Number of Residential Building Approvals

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Catalogue No.8731.0

3.2 Residential Lot ConstructionAnalysis has been undertaken to determine on a lot by lot basis the location andamount of residential lot construction activity from July 2006 to March 2015. Lotconstruction activity has been classified into distinct supply types and or supplylocations as defined above.Graph 2 summarises the amount of residential lot construction by supply type forthe Golden Plains South-East Region. From July 2006 to March 2015 there wasan average annual residential lot construction of 148. Of this lot construction(46%) were broadhectare lots, followed by rural residential lot construction at44% and 10% minor infill.In comparison to the annual volume of residential building approvals, residentiallot construction varies considerably. Residential lot construction was the lowest in2013/14 at 28 lots and ‘peaked’ in 2010/11 at 216 lots.As measured to the March Quarter 2015 there have been 216 residential lotsconstructed, with three months remaining within this calendar year, lot productionis likely to be at all-time highs across the study region.The lot construction variance over-time is a typical trend illustrated from the landdevelopment industry and indicates no significant supply or policy issues.


Graph 2: Number of Residential Lots Constructed by Supply Type, July 2006 toMarch 2015

Source: Spatial Economics Pty Ltd

Graph 3 illustrates the average annual volume of all residential lot production byurban centre. The majority (89%) of residential lot construction activity waslocated within Bannockburn, followed by Lethbridge (4%) and Inverleigh (2%).Lot construction and residential building approval activity as measured from July2006 to July 2014 closely align in terms of the identified volume at 148 and 152respectively per annum, illustrating no over and or under production of residentiallots.


Graph 3: Average Annual Number of Residential Lots Constructed by UrbanCentre, July 2006 to March 2015

Source: Spatial Economics Pty LtdNote: Includes – broadhectare, major infill, minor infill and rural residential lot construction.

3.2.1 Minor Infill Lot ConstructionMinor infill lot construction activity as measured from July 2006 to March 2015across the Golden Plains South-East Region averaged 14 lots per annum. Thisrepresents 10% of all residential lot construction activity across the Region.Minor infill lot construction activity was concentrated within the urban centres ofBannockburn (54% of activity), Lethbridge (16%) and Inverleigh (13%).Of the 122 minor infill lots constructed since July 2006, 10% were constructed on‘parent’ lots sized less than 2,000sqm, there were no lots constructed on ‘parentlots less than 800sqm. There were 62 lots constructed (51%) on parent lots sizedfrom 2,000 to 5,000sqm and 48 lots constructed on parent lots sized 5,000 to10,000sqm. Graph 4 summarises the volume of minor infill lot construction by‘parent’ lot size cohorts.


Graph 4: Parent Lot Size of Minor Infill Lot Subdivision, July 2006 to March 2015

Source: Spatial Economics Pty LtdNote: Parent lot size refers to the size of the allotment prior to subdivision.

3.2.2 Broadhectare Lot ConstructionBroadhectare lot construction activity as measured from July 2006 to March 2015across the Golden Plains South-East Region averaged 68 lots per annum. Thisrepresents 46% of all residential lot construction activity across the SLA.Broadhectare lot construction activity was located primarily in Bannockburn.As measured annually from July 2006 to March 2015, the amount ofbroadhectare lot construction activity has varied significantly. In 2006/07 therewas approximately 50 broadhectare lots constructed increasing to 129 lotsconstructed in 2012/13. In 20013/14, saw the lowest level of lot production at 7.However, as measured to the March Quarter 2015 there have been 96broadhectare lots constructed.3.2.3 Rural Residential Lot ConstructionRural Residential lot construction activity as measured from July 2006 to March2015 across the Golden Plains South-East Region has averaged 64 lots perannum. This represents 44% of all residential lot construction activity across theRegion.Of this lot construction activity – 98% was zoned Low Density Residential (LDRZ)and 2% Rural Living (RLZ) – all Rural Living lot construction was located in


Dereel. The majority of this subdivision activity was Bannockburn (36%),Teesdale (21%) and Inverleigh (20%).

From July 2006 to March 2015 there was an average annual residential lotconstruction of 148. Of this lot construction (46%) were broadhectare lots,followed by lot rural residential construction at 44% and minor infill 10%.Over the similar period, residential building approval activity has averaged 152per annum.Residential (urban and rural residential) lot construction activity was concentratedwithin three urban centres, namely Bannockburn (68%), Inverleigh (10%) andTeesdale (10%).Analysis of the amount of building approvals and residential lot constructionoverall indicates a functioning residential land market across the Golden PlainsSouth-East Region – specifically there is no over or under production of lotsrelative to building approval activity. In addition, there is a steadily increasingtrend in terms of building activity.

.


4.0 RESIDENTIAL LAND SUPPLYThis section of the report details the stock (measured in lots) of residential landacross the Golden Plains South-East Region as at March 2015. Residential lotstock/supply is presented at an urban centre and municipal level. Residentialland supply is further analysed by supply type/location, namely:

Minor Infill (vacant ‘urban’ lots); Broadhectare; Potential Residential (unzoned); and Rural Residential.

For broadhectare land supply areas, anticipated lot construction timing ispresented. This refers to the likely timing of lot construction, not dwellingconstruction.Table 1 details the residential land supply, measured in lots, by supply typeacross the Golden Plains South-East Region as at March 2015. In total there is atotal residential lot supply of approximately 3,206. This is comprised of:

483 zoned broadhectare lots (15% of supply); 131 vacant urban residential lots (4% of supply); 2,276 designated potential residential lots (71% of supply); and 316 vacant rural residential lots (10% of supply).

Each of the supply types are further detailed below, including maps of each of thesupply type, including the location of recent residential lot construction activity.Table 1: Residential Lot Potential by Supply Type, March 2015

Urban Centre/SLA Broadhectare

Vacant'Urban'

Lots

PotentialResidential(unzoned)

RuralResidential

TotalLots

BANNOCKBURN 319 97 2276 98 2790BATESFORD 42 42CORINDHAP 0 2 5 7DEREEL 0 3 58 61INVERLEIGH 4 38 42LETHBRIDGE 164 3 12 179MAUDE 1 1 2MEREDITH 0 8 5 13ROKEWOOD 0 13 1 14SHELFORD 0 1 1TEESDALE 55 55South-East SLA 483 131 2276 316 3206



4.1 Minor Infill Supply (Vacant Urban Lots)A parcel by parcel assessment was undertaken to identify minor infill supply,specifically zoned vacant allotments sized less than 5,000sqm. All vacantallotments are zoned to support urban residential development (e.g. TZ, MUZ,GRZ, RGZ, and NRZ). The identification of vacant allotments sized less than5,000sqm does not provide an estimated dwelling yield. Rather it simply identifiesthe vacant allotment by lot size, zoning and location.Dwelling yields on such allotments can vary significantly, examples range from:

800sqm vacant allotment within a broadhectare estate typically would yieldone dwelling;

800sqm vacant allotment within the urban centre, could typically rangefrom one to four dwellings; and

5,000sqm allotment within a township zone (un-sewered) one dwellingversus anything from five plus dwellings within a larger urban settlement.

As at March 2015, there was 131 minor infill lots identified. Of these lots, 94 weresized less than 1,200sqm or 72% of the identified lots. In addition there were:

8 vacant lots sized between 1,200 to 2,000sqm; and 29 lots sized from 2,000sqm to 5,000sqm.

Graph 5 summarises the size distribution of identified minor infill supply. Of thesevacant allotments, 74% are located in Bannockburn.Graph 5: Minor Infill Supply – Number of Vacant Zoned Residential Allotments,by Lot Size Cohort, 2015


Residential Land Supply Monitoring Project (G21 Region) – Golden Plains 24

4.2 Broadhectare SupplyAs at March 2015, there was a residential lot capacity within zoned broadhectaresites of approximately 483, of which 66% (319 lots) is located in Bannockburnand 34% (164 lots) in Lethbridge. Table 2 identifies the lot yield and estimateddevelopment timing of zoned broadhectare lot stock.Table 2: Anticipated Lot Construction Activity – Broadhectare, 2015

Urban Centre/SLA0-2

years3-5

yearsNo

Timing

TotalZoned(lots)

PotentialResidential(unzoned) Total Lots

BANNOCKBURN 109 210 319 2276 2595LETHBRIDGE 9 155 164 164South-East SLA 118 210 155 483 2276 2759

1: The no timing status identifies potential broadhectare land stocks but do not attempt to estimate potential developmenttiming.Source: Spatial Economics Pty Ltd

Zoned broadhectare lot potential represents 15% of the total existing residentialland supply across the Golden Plains South-East Region.Based on existing planning permits, recent construction activity and Councilfeedback it is anticipated that over the next five years, on average 66 lots perannum will be constructed within existing zoned broadhectare areas. This activityis anticipated to be primarily in Bannockburn. Historically, broadhectare lotconstructed has averaged 68 lots per annum.In addition, there is a total broadhectare lot potential of 155 with no anticipateddevelopment timing allocated. This supply is entirely located in Lethbridge.A total 13.7 hectares (11 lots) of zoned vacant land over 5,000sqm in size hasbeen identified that has the potential for broadhectare subdivision. However,these parcels are typically in low demand areas, zoned Township (TZ), strategicassessments have not been completed and in many instances un-sewered. Suchstock is located in:

Meredith – 5.4 hectares; Corindhap – 3.9 hectares and Shelford – 1.5 hectares.

This potential residential land supply source has deliberately been excluded froma lot yield and timing perspective as it is considered unlikely that any significantvolume of subdivision activity will occur within the sites.4.3 Potential Residential Land SupplyAnalysis has been undertaken in conjunction with municipal planning officers toidentify the location and associated lot yield of potential (unzoned) residentialland stocks. Potential residential land stocks are identified by the Golden PlainsShire Council, and contained within various municipal planning policy andstrategy planning documents.


Potential residential land stocks are not zoned to support immediate ‘normal’residential development, and rezoning and structure planning processes arerequired before normal residential development proceeds.Within the Golden Plains South-East Region, there is an estimated lot potentialwithin Potential Residential areas of approximately 2,276 – all of which is locatedin Bannockburn.4.4 Rural Residential SupplyThe stock of both occupied and vacant rural residential allotments have beendetermined on a lot by lot basis as at March 2015. A Rural Residential allotmentis defined as all allotments that are zoned Low Density Residential (LDRZ) andRural Living (RLZ). Occupied is defined as evidence of a ‘habitable’ dwelling andvacant is defined as no evidence of a habitable dwelling via the interpretation ofaerial imagery and the municipal valuation database.As at March 2015 across the Golden Plains South-East SLA there was a total lotstock of rural residential allotments of 2,119. Of this stock, 316 lots were vacant,a lot vacancy rate of 15%. Graph 6 summarises the stock (lots) of both occupiedand vacant rural residential allotments by urban centre.By zone type, as at March 2015 there were 1,862 Low Density Residential(LDRZ) allotments, of which 267 were vacant across the Region, a lot vacancy of14%. In comparison, there were a total of 257 Rural Living (RLZ) zonedallotments, of which 49 were vacant – a lot vacancy rate of 19%.The location of the majority of rural residential lots across the municipalityincludes:

Bannockburn - total 615 lots (lot vacancy of 16%); Teesdale - total 556 lots (lot vacancy of 10%); Dereel - total 303 lots (lot vacancy of 19%); Inverleigh - total 228 lots (lot vacancy of 17%); and Batesford - total 222 lots (lot vacancy of 19%).

Of the vacant rural residential lot stock the total area is approximately 731hectares.


Graph 6: Stock of Vacant ‘rural residential’ Allotments, 2015


Future rural residential (LDRZ and or RLZ) unzoned areas have been identifiedthrough Council consultation and are geographically identified in theaccompanying maps. In summary a total of 985 hectares of future ruralresidential land stocks have been identified, of which 193 hectares is for thepurpose of future LDRZ development and 792 hectares for RLZ. The location ofthe future rural residential land stocks is detailed in Table 11.

In total there is a total residential lot supply of approximately 3,206 lots. This iscomprised of:

483 zoned broadhectare lots (15% of supply); 131 vacant urban residential lots (4% of supply); 2,276 designated potential residential lots (71% of supply); and 316 vacant rural residential lots (10% of supply).As at March 2015, there was 131 minor infill lots identified. Of these lots, 94 weresized less than 1,200sqm.As at March 2015, there was a residential lot capacity within zoned broadhectaresites of approximately 483, of which 66% (419 lots) is located in Bannockburnand 34% (164 lots) in Lethbridge.Based on existing planning permits, recent construction activity and Councilfeedback it is anticipated that over the next five years, on average 66 lots perannum will be constructed within existing zoned broadhectare areas. This activity


is anticipated to be primarily in Bannockburn. Historically, broadhectare lotconstructed has averaged 68 lots per annum.As at March 2015 across the Golden Plains South-East Region there was a totallot stock of rural residential allotments of 2,119. Of this stock, 316 lots werevacant, a lot vacancy rate of 15%.The total area of the vacant rural residential lot stock is approximately 731hectares.A total of 985 hectares of future rural residential land stocks have been identified,of which 193 hectares is for the purpose of future LDRZ development and 792hectares for RLZ.


5.0 PROJECTED DEMANDThis report incorporates the most recently available demand figures to projectdwelling requirements and future adequacy of residential land. These figurescurrently use published population and household projections contained inVictoria in Future 2014 (VIF 2014) undertaken by the Department ofEnvironment, Land, Water & Planning as the basis for projected dwellingrequirementsThe projections detail state-wide, regional and metropolitan areas as well as localgovernment areas population, household and dwelling projections thatencompass the latest available trends such as changes to levels of immigrationor economic conditions, or changes to policy affecting population growthlocations and levels, and subsequent demand for housing.In addition, population and dwelling projections undertaken by iD Consulting (iD2015) for the Golden Plains Shire has been included as an additional demandprojection/scenario.Graph 7 summarises the projected demand for residential dwellings for theGolden Plains South-East Region. In addition, it highlights historic actual demandfor residential dwellings in the form of residential building approvals and lotconstruction.Projected dwelling requirements sourced from VIF 2014 indicate that from 2015to 2031 there will be a total dwelling requirement of 2,823 (166 average perannum). For specific time cohorts average annual dwelling requirements include:

2016 to 2021 - 163; 2021 to 2026 - 165; and 2026 to 2031 - 165.

For iD Consulting the projections indicate that from 2015 to 2031 there will be atotal dwelling requirement of 2,651 (156 average per annum). For specific timecohorts average annual dwelling requirements according to iD Consultinginclude:

2016 to 2021 - 147; 2021 to 2026 - 154; and 2026 to 2031 - 161.


Graph 7: Historic and Projected Demand for Residential Dwellings, 2006 to 2031

Source: DPCD Victoria in Future 2014: Population and Household Projections.iD Consulting 2015Australian Bureau of Statistics, Catalogue No.8731.0Spatial Economics Pty Ltd

Projected dwelling requirements sourced from VIF 2014 indicate that from 2015to 2031 there will be a total dwelling requirement of 2,823 (166 average perannum). For specific time cohorts average annual dwelling requirements include: 2016 to 2021 - 163; 2021 to 2026 - 165; and 2026 to 2031 - 165.


6.0 ADEQUACY OF LAND STOCKSAnalysis has been undertaken to estimate the years of residential broadhectareland supply for Bannockburn. In estimating the years of residential land supplyonly zoned broadhectare and potential (unzoned) residential land supply typesare considered. In the assessment of adequacy or establishing the estimatedyears of supply, the demand component for the above supply types areestimated via the assessment of historic construction.The Department of Transport, Planning and Local Infrastructure’s Population andHousehold Projections – VIF 2014 and iD Consulting’s projections are used tocreate different demand scenarios. A further alternative demand scenario ispresented based on historic lot construction activity.Based on historic (July 2006 to March 2015) lot construction activity it isestimated that within Bannockburn 46% of dwelling requirements were forbroadhectare allotments.Tables 3(a), 3(b) and 3(c), and Graph 8 summarise the estimated years of supplyby demand scenario for broadhectare stocks for Bannockburn.Years of Supply – VIF2014 Population Projection Demand ScenarioIn terms of zoned broadhectare residential land stocks it is estimated based onthe identified supply and projected demand, there are sufficient land stocks tosatisfy 4 years of future demand in Bannockburn.In terms of potential residential (unzoned) land supply stocks, there is sufficientland to satisfy over 25 years of projected demand in Bannockburn.Demand for broadhectare lots in Bannockburn from 2015 to 2031 is estimated at1,224.Table 3(a): Estimated Years of Residential Broadhectare Land Supply, 2015 –VIF2014 Demand Scenario

Location

TotalZoned(lots)


Total(lots)

BANNOCKBURN 4 25+ 25+Source: Spatial Economics Pty Ltd

Years of Supply – iD Consulting Population Projection Demand ScenarioUsing In terms of zoned broadhectare residential land stocks it is estimatedbased on the identified supply and projected demand, there are sufficient landstocks to satisfy 4 years of future demand in Bannockburn.In terms of potential residential (unzoned) land supply stocks, there is sufficientland to satisfy over 25 years of projected demand in Bannockburn.Demand for broadhectare lots in Bannockburn from 2015 to 2031 is estimated at1,163.


Table 3(b): Estimated Years of Residential Broadhectare Land Supply, 2015 – iDConsulting Demand Scenario

Location

TotalZoned(lots)


Total(lots)


Years of Supply – Historic Trend Based Demand ScenarioIn terms of zoned broadhectare residential land stocks it is estimated based onthe identified supply and projected demand, there are sufficient land stocks tosatisfy 4 years of future demand in Bannockburn.In terms of potential residential (unzoned) land supply stocks, there is sufficientland to satisfy over 25 years of projected demand in Bannockburn.The historic trend scenario is based on the average broadhectare lot productionin Bannockburn of 68 lots per annum, this closely aligns to the derivedprojections contained in VIF 2014 and iD Consulting projections.Table 3(c): Estimated Years of Residential Broadhectare Land Supply, 2015 –Lot Construction Trend Demand Scenario

Urban Centre

TotalZoned(lots)


Total(lots)



Graph 8: Adequacy of Broadhectare Land Stocks – Bannockburn, 2015


It is considered that there is an immediate need for additional zonedbroadhectare residential land supply stocks within Bannockburn as there only 4years of zoned supply. There is ample land identified for future residentialdevelopment purposes within Bannockburn.


7.0 RESIDENTIAL TABLES

Table 4: Minor Infill Lot Construction Activity, July 2006 to March 2015

Urban Centre/SLA2006/

072007/

082008/

092009/

102010/

112011/

122012/

132013/

142014/

151

BANNOCKBURN 11 5 4 13 4 4 6 1 6CORINDHAPDEREEL 3 1INVERLEIGH 2 4 3 2 5LETHBRIDGE 3 2 4 4 5 1 1MAUDE 1 2MEREDITH 3 2 2 5ROKEWOOD 7SHELFORD 1 2 1TEESDALE 2South-East SLA 23 8 10 24 14 8 20 1 14

1: From July 2014 to March 2015Source: Spatial Economics Pty Ltd

Table 5: Broadhectare/Major Lot Construction Activity, July 2006 to March 2015


072007/

082008/

092009/

102010/

112011/

122012/

132013/

142014/

151

BANNOCKBURN 41 48 88 63 71 44 129 7 96LETHBRIDGE 9South-East SLA 50 48 88 49 71 44 129 7 96


Table 6: Low Density Residential Lot Construction Activity, July 2006 to March2015


072007/

082008/

092009/

102010/

112011/

122012/

132013/

142014/

151

BANNOCKBURN 18 16 35 59 17 10 2 48BATESFORD 3 2 1 36 2 10 12 31CORINDHAP 1DEREEL 1INVERLEIGH 3 13 28 25 32 6 7LETHBRIDGE 2 4 1 3 1 4 1 3MEREDITH 1 1TEESDALE 14 9 6 59 7 6 5 2 14South-East SLA 41 45 7 123 131 58 35 17 104



Table 7: Rural Living Lot Construction Activity, July 2006 to March 2015


072007/

082008/

092009/

102010/

112011/

122012/

132013/

142014/

151

DEREEL 1 1 2 3 3 2South-East SLA 1 1 2 3 3 2


Table 8: Minor Infill (vacant lots) Supply by Lot Size Cohort, March 2015UrbanCentre/SLA

Less than500sqm

500 to800sqm

800 to1,200sqm

1,200 to2,000sqm

2,000 to5,000sqm

TotalLots

BANNOCKBURN 16 68 6 2 5 97CORINDHAP 2 2DEREEL 3 3INVERLEIGH 1 3 4LETHBRIDGE 1 2 3MAUDE 1 1MEREDITH 2 2 4 8ROKEWOOD 1 3 9 13South-East SLA 17 68 9 8 29 131


Table 9: Broadhectare Lot Potential and Anticipated Development Timing (lots),2015

Urban Centre/SLA0-2

years3-5

yearsNo

Timing

TotalZoned(lots)

PotentialResidential(unzoned) Total Lots

BANNOCKBURN 109 210 319 2276 2595LETHBRIDGE 9 155 164 164South-East SLA 118 210 155 483 2276 2759

1: The no timing status identifies potential broadhectare land stocks but do not attempt to estimate potential developmenttiming.Source: Spatial Economics Pty Ltd

Table 10: Broadhectare Stocks – No Timing or Yield, 2015Urban Centre/SLA No. of Lots Area (ha)

CORINDHAP 3 3.89DEREEL 1 1.01MEREDITH 3 5.35ROKEWOOD 1 1.37SHELFORD 3 1.46

South-East SLA 11 13.08Note: The no timing status identifies potential broadhectare land stocks but do not attempt to estimate potential yield anddevelopment timing. This potential is primarily is located in low demand areas where there has been historically minimal tono subdivision activity.Source: Spatial Economics Pty Ltd


Table 11: Future Rural Residential Stock (Hectares), 2015

Urban Centre/SLAZone Type

LDRZ RLZBANNOCKBURN 158BATESFORDINVERLEIGH

95697

ROKEWOOD 14SHELFORD 21South-East SLA 193 792


Table 12(a): Occupied and Vacant Rural Residential Lot Stock by Zone Type(hectares), 2015

Urban Centre/SLA

LDRZ RLZ

Occupied Vacant

LandArea

VacancyRate % Occupied Vacant

LandArea

VacancyRate %

BANNOCKBURN 659 78 11%BATESFORD 261 119 31%CORINDHAP 65 15 19%DEREEL 168 32 16% 597 151 20%INVERLEIGH 291 42 13%LETHBRIDGE 179 27 13%MAUDE 7 1 13%MEREDITH 70 17 20%ROKEWOOD 1 1 48%SHELFORD 9 1 10%TEESDALE 861 247 22%South-East SLA 2571 580 18% 597 151 20%



Table 12(b): Occupied and Vacant Rural Residential Lot Stock by Zone Type(lots), 2015

Urban Centre/SLA

LDRZ RLZ

Occupied Vacant

LotVacancyRate % Occupied Vacant

LotVacancyRate %

BANNOCKBURN 517 98 16%BATESFORD 180 42 19%CORINDHAP 23 5 18%DEREEL 37 9 20% 208 49 19%INVERLEIGH 190 38 17%LETHBRIDGE 91 12 12%MAUDE 8 1 11%MEREDITH 38 5 12%ROKEWOOD 2 1 33%SHELFORD 8 1 11%TEESDALE 501 55 10%South-East SLA 1595 267 14% 208 49 19%


Table 13(a): Estimated and Projected Population, 2011 to 2031

Golden Plains LGAEstimated Resident Population

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031VIF2014 18,958 21,656 24,057 26,375 28,610iD Consulting 18,958 21,861 24,102 28,699 29,418

Source: DPCD Victoria in Future 2014: Population and Household Projections. iD Consulting 2015

Table 13(b): Estimated and Projected Number of Dwellings, 2011 to 2031

Golden Plains LGAStructural Private Dwellings

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031VIF2014 7,352 8,485 9,540 10,580 11,608iD Consulting 7,356 8,459 9,456 10,490 11,568

Source: DPCD Victoria in Future 2012: Population and Household Projections. iD Consulting 2015


Table 13(c): Projected Average Annual Change in the Number of Persons and Dwellings, 2015 to 2031

Golden Plains South EastRegion

Estimated Resident Population Structural Private Dwellings2015 to

20162016 to

20212021 to

20262026 to

20312015 to

20162016 to

20212021 to

20262026 to

2031VIF 2014 445 387 381 372 180 163 165 165iD Consulting 450 384 409 420 171 147 154 161

Source: DPCD Victoria in Future 2012: Population and Household Projections.

Table 13(d): Projected Average Annual Percentage Change in the Number of Persons and Dwellings,2015 to 2031

Bannockburn

Estimated Resident Population Structural Private Dwellings2015 to

20162016 to

20212021 to

20262026 to

203120151

to 20162016 to

20212021 to

20262026 to

2031VIF 2014 3.7% 2.7% 2.4% 2.1% 3.9% 3.0% 2.6% 2.3%iD Consulting 4.1% 2.9% 2.7% 2.5% 4.3% 3.1% 2.8% 2.5%

Source: DPCD Victoria in Future 2012: Population and Household Projections.


Map 1: Residential Land Supply Areas - Meredith


Map 2: Residential Land Supply Areas - Lethbridge


Map 3: Residential Land Supply Areas - Bannockburn


GLOSSARY OF TERMSBroadhectare landUndeveloped land generally located on the urban fringe, zoned for residentialdevelopment (no previous urban development activity), and the parent lot greaterthan 5,000sqm.Constructed lotFor the purposes of this assessment, a lot is created when land has beensubdivided (’constructed’) whether or not a separate title has been issued.DwellingA building used as a self-contained residence, may include house, apartment,student accommodation, retirement or aged care facilities or a mobile dwellingsuch as a caravan.Future rural residential landLand identified by the relevant municipal authority for future rural residentialdevelopment and current zoning not supportive of such residential development.This includes both future zone types of Low Density Residential (LDRZ) andRural Living (RLZ).Local Government Area (LGA)A geographical area that is administered by a local council.LotFor the purposes of the UDP, a lot is created when land has been subdivided(‘constructed’) whether or not a separate title has been issued.Major infillUndeveloped land within the existing urban area, zoned for residentialdevelopment, and parent lot or existing lot greater than 5,000sqm and/or has thelikely potential to yield 10 or more dwellings. This definition also includes majorredevelopment sites, these are sites predominantly in existing urban areas thatare proposed to be converted or redeveloped for residential purposes and thatwill yield 10 or more dwellings.Minor infill (Vacant Urban Lots)Undeveloped land within the existing urban area, zoned for residentialdevelopment, and parent lot or existing lot less 5,000sqm.Rural Residential LandLand zoned Low Density Residential (LDRZ) or Rural Living (RLZ).Potential Residential LandLand identified by the relevant municipal authority for future residentialdevelopment and current zoning not supportive of ‘normal’ residentialdevelopment. Land which is has an ‘Urban Growth Zone’ applied, and a precinctstructure plan has not yet been approved, falls into this category.Precinct Structure PlansIn the Urban Growth Zone (UGZ), the precinct structure plan (PSP) is the keydocument that triggers the conversion of non-urban land into urban land. Aprecinct structure plan is a long-term strategic plan that describes how a precinctor a series of sites will be developed.


Statistical Local Area (SLA)A geographical area created by the Australian Bureau of Statistics for statisticalpurposes. Victoria is divided into 200 SLAs. SLAs may be the same as an LGA orin most cases several SLAs aggregate to form LGAs. Superseded by StatisticalArea geographies.Statistical Area 2(SA2)A geographical area created by the Australian Bureau of Statistics for statisticalpurposes.Recent Lot ConstructionRefers to residential lot construction activity measured on an annual basis as atJuly of each year from 2006 to 2014, additional analysis has been included toidentify lot construction to March 2015.Urban CentresCustom boundaries for defined geographic areas developed by SpatialEconomics in consultation with the pertinent municipal authority that aims toreflect small area urban centres, where typically an urban centre may havemultiple suburbs or transcend municipal boundaries. The boundaries aim tocapture all forms of existing and future residential land supply and development,including rural residential land stocks. Map 4 below illustrate the Urban Centreboundaries within the study area of Golden Plains.


Map 4: Urban Centre Boundaries – Golden Plains

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