research_weekly 11.3.11

Zurich, 3 November 2011

Global Research

Important disclosures are found in the Disclosure appendix

The recommendations outlined in this research report arebased on the outcome of the Investment Committee meetingof 27 October 2011.

The next edition of the Research Weekly will be published onThursday, 10 November 2011.

Greek referendum call increases uncertainty

Late Monday evening, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou surprised the markets and fellow EU politicians with his announcement that he was planning to hold a referendum on the second aid package. However, as we went to press, the latest news reports announced that Mr. Papandreou had signaled his agreement to the formation of a transitory government of national unity; the country would prepare new elections, possibly early next year, and secure the approval of the second aid package by the Greek parliament in due course. As a result, the next IMF/Eurozone loan tranche could be disbursed without much delay. This renders the referendum a moot issue.

It seems that growing resistance within the governing PASOK party to the Prime Minister's referendum plans led to this development, especially taking into account the government's thin majority in parliament (151 out of 300 seats). The opposition reacted angrily to Mr. Papandreou’s decision from the start, instead preferring new elections.

The referendum threat has dramatically increased the uncertainty surrounding the timely implementation of the second support program and the proposed debt exchange in January. It especially jeopardizes the pay-out of the latest tranche (amounting to EUR 8 bn) of IMF and Eurozone loans, which was planned for mid-November. Actually, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy had said that no additional rescue funds would flow to Greece until the referendum had passed. The risk of a hard (or uncontrolled) default, i.e., Greece running out of money, has thus increased, although according to Bloomberg, Greek officials stressed that the country has enough funds available until mid-December. Moreover, the formation of a transitional government would clearly represent a step in the right direction. While the next Greek bond redemptions and interest payments are not due until mid-December, some bills need to be rolled over in mid-November. Taking into consideration the

Research Weekly Greek execution risk keeping the financial markets busy

Private Banking

Highlights

We remain cautious on risky credits due to renewed political uncertainty surrounding Greece.

While corporate fundamentals are sound, changing sentiment is clearly a disturbing factor for equities. We recommend not rushing into the asset category, but instead using periods of weakness to buy stocks in sectors/industries and regions we like.

Top investment ideas

Fixed income Trading Corner (1–6 months) We do not drop/add any bonds from/to the Trading Corner portfolio. page 3

Fixed income Classic portfolio (6–12+ months) This week we add the new EUR 2.25% VOLKSWAGEN 11/10/14 bond to our Classic portfolio and drop the EUR 3.25 BMW 1/28/16 bond. page 5

Investment summary page 9

Global equity sector strategy and focus list (6–12+ months) page 10


Research Weekly 2

very fluid political situation in Greece and the implementation risks regarding fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, we maintain our Negative fundamental view on Greece. In addition, we reiterate our SELL recommendation on Greek sovereign bonds with maturities of up to 10 years.

Fixed income markets: Déjà-vu

The sentiment-fueled rally in credit markets sparked by the last EU summit came to an abrupt halt on Monday night, following the announcement by the Greek Prime Minister that he was planning to hold a referendum. The markets reacted promptly, exhibiting patterns we had hoped were over. While higher-beta assets, such as high yield corporates and subordinated financials, suffered significantly, and European peripheral sovereign debt sold off, save havens were in high demand again. The 10-year yield on German Bunds fell nearly 25 bp to close at 1.77% on Monday. On Tuesday, it was only the ECB that prevented Italian 10-year bonds from rising above 6.35% (see Figure 1). At its regular meeting today (3 November), the ECB decided to lower interest rates by 25 bp to 1.25%. The new ECB President, Mario Draghi, for instance, highlighted that the ongoing tensions in the financial markets were likely to dampen economic growth in the coming quarters. Furthermore, he raised the possibility of a mild recession by year-end. Even though the rate cut was not expected by most market observers, the market impact was fairly limited, with the 2-year German benchmark yield declining about 5 bp in response.

While always remaining cautious on risky credits in general, given the remaining political uncertainties, we recently advised clients to gradually build up credit exposure owing to what appeared to be attractive corporate valuations, and sectors, such as senior bank debt, which we expected to profit from supportive technicals going forward (e.g., regulatory efforts, which would make banks less risky). While we remain confident over the medium term, we think that the renewed

uncertainty with respect to Greece, and the fear of possible contagion to related market segments, is clearly negative for risky fixed income assets. We therefore maintain our strategically cautious stance on credit, and are reviewing our outperformance call on bank senior debt. Tactically, we have just expanded our underweight in high yield in the EUR model portfolio and closed the remaining overweight in EM bonds in the CHF portfolio (See Fixed Income Strategy: November update, published 1 November 2011). We balanced this with an overweight in intermediate government related (EUR) and intermediate sovereign bonds (CHF). Similarly, we added exposure to the latter segment in USD, where we closed our overweight in inflation-linked bonds.

Erratic news flow around Greece keeping equity markets busy

The equity markets are currently being driven by two diverging factors. The first is fundamentals. Fundamentals are still fairly sound, corporate cash is high and corporate earnings are fairly satisfying (69.6% positive surprises). Moreover, valuations are attractive, even if earnings estimates were to decelerate further; however, valuation is not a driver of the equity markets at the moment. Second, sentiment is currently being driven by erratic and changing news flow regarding Greece and the other peripheral European countries, as well as the potential direct and indirect impact it may have on the financial sector. We think this is likely to keep equity market volatility elevated for a while until a Europe rescue plan has been agreed to by all parties and the markets are convinced of the necessary commitment to implement it. In our view, this also gives rise to attractive opportunities to sell volatility via derivative instruments. Until then, we recommend equity investors not rush into the asset category, but use periods of weakness to buy stocks in sector/industries and regions we like (see, e.g., Table on page 10).

Figure 1 Developments of 10-year benchmark yields

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

6.1.2011 7.1.2011 8.1.2011 9.1.2011 10.1.2011 11.1.2011

10

year

yie

lds

(in %

)

Germany Italy Spain Portugal

Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse


Research Weekly 3

Bond investment ideas (1–6 months)

Trading Corner: Short to medium-term trading investment ideas

Fixed income and credit views

Stefan Klein Research Analyst +41 44 333 56 38

Although we maintain our cautious stance on credit overall, given the remaining politicaluncertainties, we remain positive for the segment over the medium to long term. Investors with a higher risk profile able to withstand prolonged periods of elevated volatility may consider buying high-yield bonds from fundamentally stronger names. High yield and low investment grade bonds tend to offer attractive investment returns in periods of elevated volatility, especially toward the end of contraction phases.

Transactions

Misha Weber Research Analyst +41 44 333 54 25

This week, we do not add any new positions to our Trading Corner. Market volatility remains intense, given the news flow regarding Greece. In response to this market uncertainty, we are moving our stop loss limits to levels close to current levels. While this raises the likelihood of being stopped out, we protect our P&L and limit our downside risk. Instead of listing all our trades and spelling out the revised stop loss levels, please consult the bond table on the next page. Investors should bear in mind that the Trading Corner tends to put forward more risky trades (highyield, emerging markets, subordinated instruments) that may not be appropriate for the moreconservative, risk averse investors. In many cases we would advise that such bonds constitute onlya small proportion of an overall well diversified portfolio.


Research Weekly 4

This week’s TRADING CORNER Adds (1–6 months)

BM spread (bp)* Portfolio weight Rec. ISIN no. Security no.

Curr. Security description Issuer

Rating: S&P / Moody’s / Fitch***

Vol.(m)

Dura-tion

Stop Loss

OpenYTM /

YTC (%)

Open clean

price** Open Target CHF EUR USD

This week we do not present any new trades in the Trading Corner portfolio.

*) BM stands for benchmark. BM spreads refer to the yield spread of the relevant government benchmark bond. **) Closing prices as of 02/11/2011. Prices are indicative only and subject to normal market volatility. ***) e stands for expected rating while p stands for provisional rating, both are subject to receipt of final documentation; u stands for unsolicited rating.


This week’s TRADING CORNER Drops

BM spread (bp)* Rec. ISIN no. Security no.


Rating S&P / Moody’s / Fitch***

Vol.(m)

Duration Open date Close price**

Open Current Target

Trade P&L

This week we do not close any trades in the Trading Corner portfolio.



Currently open trades (1–6 months)

Price** BM spread (bp)* Rec. ISIN no. Security no.


Rating S&P / Moody’s / Fitch***

Vol.(m)

Dura-tion

Stop Loss

Open date

Open Current Open Curr. Target

TradeP&L

BUY CH0140684512 14068451 CHF

HEIGR 7 1/4 11/14/17 HEIDELBERGCEMENT FINANCE BB/(P)Ba2/BB+ 150 4.7 103 12/10/2011 101.51 104.02 636 589 450 2.47%

BUY CH0141533403 14153340 CHF

VTB 5 11/17/15 VTB BANK (VTB CAPITAL SA NR/Baa1e/BBBe 300 3.5 97 26/10/2011 100.32 99.91 476 487 400 -0.40%

BUY XS0234434222 2344245 EUR

HENKEL 5 3/8 11/25/04 HENKEL AG & CO KGAA BBB/Baa1/BBB+ 1,300 3.4 100.5 31/08/2011 100.00 101.00 414 412 300 1.85%

BUY XS0548101723 11866621 EUR

SUNCOM 7 12/31/17 SUNRISE COMMUNICATIONS I BB/Ba3/NR 371 4.8 98 31/08/2011 97.50 101.00 600 556 525 4.77%

BUY XS0273988393 2788773 EUR

BBDBCN 7 1/4 11/15/16 BOMBARDIER INC BB+/Ba2/BB+ 785 2.5 103 31/08/2011 103.00 103.59 536 399 425 1.73%

BUY XS0686703736 13994137 EUR

HEIGR 9 1/2 12/15/18 HEIDELBERGCEMENT FINANCE BB/Ba2/BB+ 300 5.2 107 28/09/2011 101.07 108.60 790 642 500 8.15%

BUY XS0695403765 14131098 EUR

ENELIM 4 5/8 06/24/15 ENEL FINANCE INTL NV A-/A3/A 1,250 3.3 100 19/10/2011 100.24 100.46 357 381 501 0.33%

BUY DE000A1A1P25 14153341 EUR

CONGR 7 1/8 10/15/18 CONTI-GUMMI FINANCE B.V. B+/Ba3/BB- 625 5.2 98.5 26/10/2011 98.49 100.25 587 601 400 1.91%

BUY XS0696856847 14153342 EUR

TELEFO 4.967 02/03/16 TELEFONICA EMISIONES SAU

BBB+/Baa1/BBB+e 1,000 3.7 101 26/10/2011 101.52 102.54 351 346 275 1.01%

BUY XS0587030957 14153343 USD

VIP 6.493 02/02/16 VIMPELCOM (VIP FIN) BB/Ba3/NR 500 3.6 95 26/10/2011 97.08 97.78 635 658 525 0.82%




Research Weekly 5

Bond investment ideas (6–12+ months)

CLASSIC: Core bond recommendations for buy-and-hold style reinvestments and fresh money buys

Investment Committee We believe that senior bank bonds should benefit from the recent announcements most. Forsubordinated bonds, the situation is more complex. The overall reduction in risk should support corporate credits in general and weigh on benchmark government bonds.

Fixed income and credit views

Given the renewed political uncertainties with respect to the European debt crisis, we maintain our cautious stance on credit for now. Nevertheless, we recognize that US economic data has improved and credit valuations have become increasingly attractive recently. Over a 12-month horizon, we see good value in high yield bonds, given that late phases in the current economic contraction phase tend to offer attractive investment returns. Our recommended maturity in EUR and CHF is 3M LIBOR to 2 years for AAA/AA rated bonds andup to 5 years for A/BBB rated bonds. In USD, our preferred bond maturity range is 3M LIBOR to 1year for AAA/AA rated bonds and up to 4 years for A/BBB rated bonds. In GBP we favor 2–4 years for AAA/AA rated bonds and 2–7 years for A/BBB rated bonds.

Performance


Our Classic Portfolio reached an average total return of 39 bp last week. Credits performed well over the week. Year-to-date, our recommendations have achieved a total return of 1.82%. They underperformed the respective benchmark 1–4 year sub-indices in CHF, EUR and GBP and outperformed in USD. This week we add the EUR VW 2.25% 11/14 to our Classic Portfolio, switching from the BMW 3.25%1/16. The new VW was priced at Bunds +160 bp, a level about 30 bp wide of its secondary curve. The BMW 16s now trade at levels close to 105. With a spread level of Bunds +120-130 bp,we remain BUY-rated on the bond, but drop it from the Classic Portfolio.


Research Weekly 6

Issuer selection rationale


Volkswagen (VW, S&P A- Stable / Moody's A3 Positive / Fitch A- Stable) VW's business profile is supported by its product diversity, ranging from mass market cars

(brands: VW, Skoda, Seat) to luxury cars (Audi and niche nameplates, such as Bugatti, Lamborghini, Bentley), good technology, excellent scale, and broad geographical spread of activities.

Geographic diversification, already among the best in the industry, is improving. The company has been ramping up production at its new US facility at Chattanooga, Tennessee USA. Its first US built vehicle is a US version of the Passat. In combination with production from Mexico, VW has an improving FX natural hedge position, which in the longer term, positions the company as a more formidable carmaker in the US. We estimate VW has been losing EUR 500 m on average at the EBIT level in the US market over the past several years. With its US market share rising toward 4% (2% in 2005), we think the company is well on track in its plans to establish a meaningful presence in the North American car market. This improves VW's already impressive geographic diversification.

VW reported strong Q3 2011 results. Unit sales rose 13.7% in the quarter and the operating margin reached 7.5%. Audi's margin reached 13% owing to new model launches (A1, A6 and its small SUV the Q3), which is helping to boost sales momentum.

Cash flow is strong, enabling the company to add to its automotive net liquidity position. Excluding captive debt, VW has EUR 21 bn in net liquidity. It added EUR 1.7 bn in the quarter, EUR 7 bn year to date. VW is well positioned to execute its growth strategy, be it the integration of Porsche, the commercial vehicle consolidation or pushing its global growth ambitions. We have previously had some reservations about the company's aggressive growth strategy. However, given the strong cash flow generation and ability to continue to add to its net liquidity position, we revise our fundamental view to Stable from Negative.


Research Weekly 7

This week’s CLASSIC Portfolio Adds (6–12+ months)

ISIN no. Security no.


Rating S&P/Moody’s /Fitch***

Coupon Min. Denomi-nation / Increment (thousands)

Vol. (m)

Dur-ation

Price Ask**

YTM / YTC

BM-Spread (bp)*

Days Accrued

XS0702340505 070234050 EUR

VW 2 1/4 11/10/14 VOLKSWAGEN LEAS NR / A3e / NR 2.25% 100 / 100 750 2.9 100.34 2.13% 157 -

*) BM stands for benchmark. BM spreads refer to the yield spread of the relevant government benchmark bond. **) Closing prices as of 02/11/2011. Prices are indicative only and subject to normal market volatility. ***) e stands for expected rating, subject to receipt of final documentation.

Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse; n.a. = not available

This week’s CLASSIC Portfolio Drops

Clean Ask Price**

YTM / YTC (%) BM spread (bp)* ISIN no. Security no.


Rating S&P/ Moody’s /Fitch***

Vol. (m)

Dura-tion

Open date

Open Close Open Close Open Close

XS0583801997 12368122 EUR

BMW 3 1/4 01/28/16 BMW FINANCE NV A- / A2 / NR 1,250 3.8 25/01/2011 100.09 104.86 3.23% 2.04% 94 123




Research Weekly 8

Current CLASSIC Portfolio Recommendations

ISIN no. Security no.


Rating S&P/Moody’s /Fitch***

Coupon Min. Denomi-nation / Increment (thousands)

Vol. (m)

Dur-ation

Price Ask**

YTM / YTC

BM-Spread (bp)*

Days Accrued

CH0109156007 10915600 CHF

GE 2 02/18/14 GENERAL ELEC CAP CORP NR / Aa2 / NR 2.000% 5 / 5 525 2.2 102.91 0.71% 79 260

CH0126325502 12632550 CHF

LLOYDS 2 1/2 04/15/14 LLOYDS TSB BANK PLC A+ / A1 / A 2.500% 5 / 5 500 2.3 98.99 2.93% 303 203

CH0131628676 13162867 CHF

DAIGR 1 1/4 03/31/14 DAIMLER INTL FINANCE BV BBB+ / A3 / A- 1.250% 5 / 5 200 2.3 101.48 0.63% 72 128

CH0140244770 14024477 CHF

FRTEL 1 5/8 10/13/16 FRANCE TELECOM A- / A3 / A- 1.625% 5 / 5 250 4.7 101.48 1.31% 107 25

CH0139264961 13926496 CHF

ABB 1 1/4 10/11/16 ABB LTD A / A2 / BBB+ 1.250% 5 / 5 500 4.8 101.01 1.04% 79 27

DE000HV2AB92 12273505 EUR

HVB 1 1/2 01/14/13 UNICREDIT BANK AG AAA / Aaa / AAA 1.500% 1 / 1 1,000 1.2 100.15 1.37% 73 298

XS0604400001 12651735 EUR

LLOYDS 4 1/2 09/15/14 LLOYDS TSB BANK PLC A+ / A1 / A 4.500% 100 / 1 1,500 2.6 100.21 4.41% 388 54

XS0702340505 014237909 EUR

VW 2 1/4 11/10/14 VOLKSWAGEN LEASING GMBH NR / A3e / NR 2.250% 100 / 100 750 2.9 100.34 2.13% 157 0

XS0683565476 13944284 EUR

SGOFP 3 1/2 09/30/15 COMPAGNIE DE ST GOBAIN BBB / Baa2 / NR 3.500% 100 / 1 1,000 3.6 102.49 2.82% 209 39

XS0627824633 13024292 EUR

RBS 4 3/4 05/18/16 ROYAL BK OF SCOTLAND PLC A+ / A2 / A 4.750% 100 / 1 1,000 3.9 97.46 5.39% 451 174

FR0011124601 13980670 EUR

COFP 4.472 04/04/16 CASINO GUICHARD PERRACHO BBB- / NR / BBB- 4.472% 100 / 100 600 3.9 102.58 3.83% 297 35

XS0693854605 14106654 EUR

STANLN 3 7/8 10/20/16 STANDARD CHARTERED PLC A / A2 / AA- 3.875% 100 / 1 1,250 4.4 101.88 3.46% 247 19

XS0461096868 10686182 GBP

NRWBK 2 5/8 12/07/12 NRW.BANK AA- / Aa1 / AAA 2.625% 1 / 1 500 1.0 101.53 1.19% 67 336

XS0496515973 11137630 GBP

NEDWBK 2 3/8 12/10/13 NEDER WATERSCHAPSBANK AAA / Aaa / NR 2.375% 1 / 1 400 2.0 102.37 1.22% 60 333

XS0617028146 12851989 GBP

LBANK 2 1/4 12/10/13 L-BANK BW FOERDERBANK AA+ / Aaa / AAA 2.250% 1 / 1 250 2.0 102.06 1.25% 62 208

XS0638117852 13180594 GBP

DAIGR 2 1/8 12/10/13 DAIMLER INTL FINANCE BV BBB+ / A3 / NR 2.125% 1 / 1 200 2.0 100.19 2.03% 140 146

XS0579697763 12304712 GBP

NIB 1 5/8 12/10/13 NORDIC INVESTMENT BANK AAA / Aaa / NR 1.625% 1 / 1 400 2.0 101.48 0.91% 28 294

XS0503560780 11225595 GBP

KBN 2 1/4 12/30/13 KOMMUNALBANKEN AS AAA / Aaa / NR 2.250% 1 / 1 600 2.1 102.49 1.07% 44 313

US6325C1BG30 12136568 USD

NAB 1.7 12/10/13 NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK NR / Aa2 / AA 1.700% 100 / 1 750 2.0 100.67 1.37% 114 148

USN4578BPY49 13138249 USD

INTNED 2 3/8 06/09/14 ING BANK NV A+ / Aa3 / A+ 2.375% 200 / 1 500 2.5 100.20 2.30% 206 149

US03523TBL17 13350560 USD

ABIBB 1 1/2 07/14/14 ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV WOR A- / Baa1 / A- 1.500% 1 / 1 750 2.6 101.26 1.02% 70 114

USU2339CAQ16 67715918 USD

DAIGR 1 7/8 09/15/14 DAIMLER FINANCE NA LLC BBB+ / A3 / A-e 1.875% 150 / 1 800 2.8 100.71 1.62% 195 54

US801060AA22 13984885 USD

SANFP 1.2 09/30/14 SANOFI AA- / A2 / AA- 1.200% 2 / 1 1,000 2.8 101.22 0.77% 42 38

US46623EJF79 12339094 USD

JPM 0 01/24/14 JPMORGAN CHASE & CO A+ / Aa3 / AA- FRN 2 / 1 2,250 n.a. 99.23 1.58% n.a. 15




Research Weekly 9

Investment Summary 3 November 2011/Forecasts

0.

Investment Committee view (1–6 months) Global Macro: The EU summit made some good progress, with politicians showing their willingness to act. A proactive big picture approach was taken with some level of detail – but implementation risks remain. Fixed Income: We believe that senior bank bonds should benefit from the recent announcements most. For subordinated bonds, the situation is more complex. The overall reduction in risk should support corporate credits in general and weigh on benchmark government bonds. Equities: With the outcome of the EU summit and better global economic data, we do not rule out a further short-term equity rally that could be substantial, given US results above expectations, better credit spreads, and rising momentum in our risk appetite index. But part of this good news is already discounted and some risks remain, e.g., on implementation of euro measures. So we leave all arrows unchanged, the tactical arrow (1–6 months) neutral and the strategic equity arrow (6–12+ months) up. Forex: EUR/USD remains range-bound, with the EU leaders' agreement underpinning the recent EUR squeeze higher to around 1.40. SNB's CHF 1.20 floor becomes all the more credible as the EUR risk premium is marginally reduced.

Category Tactical Overall outlook: 1-6M total return Fixed Income Negative Australia outperform; USA, Eurozone, UK, Japan, Canada, CH neutral

Equities Neutral UK outperform; USA, Europe, Japan, Canada, CH, Emerging markets neutral; Australia underperform

Commodities Neutral Precious metals, Agriculture, Gold outperform; WTI oil neutral; Energy, Industrial metals underperform

Real Estate Neutral USA, CH outperform; Europe, UK, Japan, Asia neutral

Fixed income portfolio performance Curr. Benchmark

Index Weekly Total

Return YTD Total

Return Average

YTM Average YTM of

Govt. BenchmarkDuration Asset Swap

SpreadClassic portfolio

CHF CLASSIC Rec. 0.28% 1.17% 1.32% 0.10% 3.3 104

CHF LSI 1-4 YEAR 0.19% 1.80% 0.91% - 2.4 77

EUR CLASSIC Rec. 0.87% 0.57% 3.34% 0.72% 3.8 172

EUR LEIE 1-4 YEAR 0.32% 2.41% 3.05% - 2.2 173

USD CLASSIC Rec. 0.29% 3.57% 1.44% 0.16% 2.1 71

USD LEID 1-4 YEAR 0.59% 2.25% 2.70% - 2.3 203

GBP CLASSIC Rec. 0.12% 1.93% 1.34% 0.69% 2.0 -2

GBP LEIS 1-4 YEAR 0.29% 3.91% 2.89% - 2.3 167

TOTAL CLASSIC Rec. 0.39% 1.82% 1.86% 0.42% 2.8 86

"Trading corner" portfolio

USD Satellite 0.17% 1.05% 7.30% - 3.6 591

EUR Satellite 0.45% 4.42% 6.44% - 4.0 427

CHF Satellite 0.02% -0.09% 5.86% - 4.1 506

Equity markets (1–6 months)

Index Price1 MTD YTD Support Resistance Technical Outlook

S&P 500 1,237.90 -1.2% -1.6% 1,195 1,255

SMI 5,611.05 -2.1% -12.8% 5,400 5,720

FTSE-100 5,484.10 -1.1% -7.0% 5,275 5,560

Euro Stoxx 50 2,291.89 -3.9% -17.9% 2,185 2,410

Nikkei-225 8,640.42 -3.9% -15.5% 8,340 8,940

Emerging markets 977.11 -1.8% -15.1% 940 1,014

Recent equity recommendations from Research Weekly (1–6 months) These recommendations have a short-term investment horizon, target absolute returns, and are suitable for trading-oriented clients. The Research Weekly portfolio is intended to be part of the satellite investment portfolio. Investment Theme Items Open

date Trade status

Action to be taken / reason for closing

Global Macro Hedge Funds

Broad Macro Style Index 19/05 Open Stop Loss -5.0%

Dividend Yield Stocks

Abbott Laboratories, AT&T, GDF Suez, Kraft Foods, Mirvac, Novartis, Pfizer, Philip Morris International, PSP, Roche, Sanofi, Stockland, TSMC, Royal Dutch, Zurich Financial Services

02/09 Open Take profit target +2.5%

Defensives Baxter, General Mills, Gilead Sciences, KPN, Novartis, Pfizer, Roche, SAB Miller, Tesco, Vodafone, Wal-Mart

13/10 Open Stop Loss -4.0%

Emerging Consumer Brasil Foods, British American Tobacco, Danone, LVMH, Richemont, SAB Miller

27/10 Open Stop Loss -5.0%

1 Closing prices as of 02/11/2011 Direction from current levels

Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, Credit Suisse

Forecasts published on 20 October 2011

Short interest rates 3M LIBOR

Spot1 3M 12M

CHF 0.04 0.0-0.2 0.0-0.2

EUR 1.59 1.5-1.7 1.5-1.7

USD 0.42 0.3-0.5 0.3-0.5

GBP 0.98 0.8-1.0 0.8-1.0

JPY 0.20 0.1-0.3 0.1-0.3

Bonds: 10-year government

Spot1 3M 12M

CHF 1.02 1.0-1.2 1.4-1.6

EUR 2.06 2.1-2.3 2.5-2.7

USD 2.11 2.5-2.7 2.6-2.8

GBP 2.51 2.4-2.6 2.7-2.9

JPY 1.02 0.9-1.1 1.1-1.3

Real GDP growth in %

2010 2011E 2012E

CH 2.7 1.9 2.0

EMU 1.5 1.8 1.1

USA 2.9 1.6 1.8

UK 1.4 1.1 1.3

Japan 3.9 -0.3 1.7

Inflation in %

2010 2011E 2012E

CH 0.7 0.3 1.0

EMU 1.6 2.6 1.5

USA 1.6 3.0 1.4

UK 3.2 4.4 2.5

Japan -0.9 0.2 0.0

Commodities (Forecasts published on 21 October 2011) Spot1 3M 12M

Gold (USD) 1,738.60 1,750 1,900

Oil (USD) 92.51 84 88

Foreign exchange (Forecasts published on 24 October 2011)

Spot1 3M 12M

EUR/USD 1.37 1.35-1.39 1.38-1.42

USD/CHF 0.88 0.89-0.93 0.91-0.95

EUR/CHF 1.22 1.23-1.27 1.28-1.32

USD/JPY 78 74-78 74-78

EUR/JPY 107 102-106 104-108

EUR/GBP 0.86 0.86-0.90 0.87-0.91

GBP/USD 1.59 1.53-1.57 1.55-1.59

EUR/SEK 9.08 8.98-9.02 8.78-8.82

EUR/NOK 7.78 7.73-7.77 8.13-8.17

AUD/USD 1.03 0.95-0.99 0.91-0.95

NZD/USD 0.79 0.75-0.79 0.72-0.76

USD/CAD 1.01 1.03-1.07 1.04-1.08

Recommended styles

Defensives

Zurich 3 November 2011

Research Weekly 10

Global equity sector strategy and focus list

Sector (weight strategic/ tactical)

Industry

Str

ateg

ic w

eigh

t (6

-12

mon

ths)

Tact

ical

wei

ght

(1-6

mon

ths)

Europe underweight

Switzerland neutral

USA overweight

Asia ex Japan overweight Japan neutral Australia underweight

Energy (N/N) Energy N N Royal Dutch Shell - Chevron, Anadarko Petroleum, Halliburton,

Sinopec, China Shenhua Energy

Chemicals N N BASF - - -

Construction Materials N U - - - Siam Cement

Metals & Mining O N Rio Tinto, Xstrata - Freeport-McMoRan Rio Tinto Limited

Materials (O/U)

Pulp & Paper N N - - - -

Capital Goods O N Siemens ABB, Schindler PC General Electric, Deere & Co.

IJM, United Tractors, Komatsu

Commercial Services & Supplies

N N - - - -

Industrials (O/U)

Transportation, incl. Logistics U U - Kühne & Nagel - Map Airports

Automobiles & Components N U BMW - - -

Consumer Durables & Apparel, Textiles, Apparel & Luxury

O O - Swatch Group (Bearer) Nike -

Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure N U - - - - Media N N - - - -

Consumer discretionary (O/U)

Retailing N N - Dufry - Golden Eagle Retail

Food & Staples Retailing O O - - - -

Beverages O O Anheuser-Busch - Coca-Cola Indofood Sukses

Food Products N N Danone Nestlé, Lindt & Sprüngli PC

Kraft Foods Wilmar International

Tobacco N O British American Tobacco

- Philip Morris International

Japan Tobacco

Consumer staples (O/O)

Household & Personal Products

N O Henkel Preferred, Reckitt Benckiser

- - -

Healthcare Equipment & Services

N N Fresenius SE Tecan Baxter International -

Biotechnology N N - - - -

Healthcare (N/N)

Pharmaceuticals N N Bayer Roche (Genussscheine), Novartis

Pfizer -

Banks N U - - - ANZ Bank, BOC Hong Kong, HDFC Bank Limited

Diversified Financials N U - - - -

Insurance N U Allianz Zurich Financial Services, Swiss Re

- -

Financials (N/U)

Real Estate N N - - - Sun Hung Kai Properties

Software & Services O O - - Microsoft, Google, Oracle

Tencent, Infosys

Technology Hardware & Equipment

N N - - Apple Inc Samsung Electronics, Lenovo, HTC Corp.

IT (O/O)

Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

N N - - - -

Diversified Telecoms U N BT Group - - - Telecommuni-cation services (U/N)

Wireless Telecoms U N Vodafone - - NTT Docomo, M1 Limited

Utilities (N/N) Utilities N N GDF Suez - - -

Source: Credit Suisse. Legend to weights: O: Overweight, N: Neutral, U: Underweight This is our sector strategy and focus list as of 03 November 2011 recommended by Credit Suisse, Private Banking division. Our sector strategy shows our sector preferences with recommendations relative to regional benchmarks: Global: (MSCI World in USD), Europe (MSCI Europe in EUR), Switzerland (Swiss Market Index in CHF), USA (S&P 500 in USD), Asia/Pacific (MSCI AC Asia/Pacific in USD). An overweight (underweight) is a recommendation to invest more (less) than in a neutral position indicated by the market-cap weights of the respective benchmarks. The sector weights as well as the neutral positions in figures are available upon request; please contact your relationship manager. The Focus List is a selection of our favorite stocks within our coverage which have a BUY recommendation. The selection was made to reflect the sector and regional preferences. Updates are provided via our Research Monthly and Research Weekly publications as well as in our Equity Research reports. Additionally, we publish our adds and drops in our Research Equity Daily. The changes are highlighted in bold.

For further information, including disclosures with respect to any other issuers, please refer to the Credit Suisse Global Research Disclosure site at: http://www.credit-suisse.com/research/disclaimer

Please note that trading facilities in certain securities may be limited.


Research Weekly 11

Moving averages are popular and versatile for identifying price trends. They smooth out fluctuations in market prices, thereby making it easier to determine underlying trends. Their other function is to signal significant changes in direction as early as possible. Generally, if the market were in an uptrend or downtrend, a longer time period would be used. If it is consolidating, the shorter time frame will catch the minor moves more easily. Moving averages are lagging indicators and give signals after the price trend has already turned. Momentum indicators lead the price trend. They give signals before the price trend turns. Once momentum provides a signal, it has to be confirmed by a moving-average crossover. For a short introduction to technical analysis, we refer readers to “TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EXPLAINED” at: www.credit-suisse.com/legal/pb_research/technical_tutorial_en.pdf

Please note that due to local regulatory requirements access to these weblinks may be restricted for clients in certain countries.

Weights One full position corresponds to 20% of our Research Weekly portfolio, one half position is thus 10%. Remaining cash positions of the Research Weekly portfolio will be invested in money market.

Key to technical charts used in this report

2002 2003 2004 2005

-3000-2000-1000

0100020003000750

800

850

900

950

10001050110011501200

Medium-termmomentum

11-weekmoving average


Long-termmomentum

2002 2003 2004 2005

-3000-2000-1000

0100020003000750

800

850

900

950

10001050110011501200

Medium-termmomentum



Long-termmomentum

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov-300-200-100

0100200300

1060

1070

1080

1090

1100

1110

1120

1130

114011 & 40-daymoving average

Short- andmedium- termmomentum

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov-300-200-100

0100200300

1060

1070

1080

1090

1100

1110

1120

1130

114011 & 40-daymoving average

Short- andmedium- termmomentum

Source: Metastock, Reuters

Imprint

Publishers Dr. Nannette Hechler-Fayd'herbe

Managing Director Head of Global Financial Markets Research Tel. +41 44 333 17 06 nannette.hechler-fayd'[email protected]

Responsible authors

Paul Danis, CFA Vice President Research Analyst Tel. +44 20 7883 2458 [email protected]

Sylvie Golay Markovich, CFA Vice President Research Analyst Tel. +41 44 334 54 37 [email protected]

Thomas Herrmann Vice President Research Analyst Tel. +41 44 333 50 62 [email protected]

Stefan Klein Research Analyst Tel. +41 44 333 56 38 [email protected]

Olivier P. Müller, CFA, CAIA, FRM

Director Research Analyst Tel. +41 44 333 01 46 [email protected]

Michael O'Sullivan Managing Director Head of Portfolio Strategy & Thematic Research Tel. +44 20 7883 8228 michael.o'[email protected]

Misha Weber Director Head of Global Credit Research Tel. +41 44 333 54 25 [email protected]

Information about other research publications

Credit Suisse AG Research & Publications Uetlibergstrasse 231 P.O. Box 300 CH-8070 Zurich

E-mail [email protected]

Internet http://www.credit-suisse.com/research

Intranet Credit Suisse employees only http://research.csintra.net


Research Weekly 12

Disclosure appendix

Analyst certification The analysts identified in this report hereby certify that views about the companies and their securities discussed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about all of the subject companies and securities. The analysts also certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Knowledge Process Outsourcing (KPO) Analysts mentioned in this report are employed by Credit Suisse Business Analytics (India) Private Limited.

Important disclosures Credit Suisse policy is to publish research reports, as it deems appropriate, based on developments with the subject company, the sector or the market that may have a material impact on the research views or opinions stated herein. Credit Suisse policy is only to publish investment research that is impartial, independent, clear, fair and not misleading. The Credit Suisse Code of Conduct to which all employees are obliged to adhere, is accessible via the website at: https://www.credit-suisse.com/governance/doc/code_of_conduct_en.pdf For more detail, please refer to the information on independence of financial research, which can be found at: https://www.credit-suisse.com/legal/pb_research/independence_en.pdf The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received compensation that is based upon various factors including Credit Suisse's total revenues, a portion of which is generated by Credit Suisse Investment Banking business.

Equity rating history as of 03/11/2011 Company Rating Date

BUY since 31/10/2011












ABB (ABBN VX)






ABBOTT LABORATORIES (ABT US)









ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV (ABI BB)


HOLD since 02/09/2011







AT&T INC (T US)









BAXTER INTERNATIONAL (BAX US)


BUY since 01/11/2011 BRASIL FOODS ADR (BRFS US)







BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO (BATS LN)









CIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT (CFR VX)










DAIMLER (DAI GY)












DANONE (BN FP)

BUY since 21/10/2010 ENEL SPA (ENEL IM) HOLD since 04/08/2011

Abbreviations frequently used in reports

Abb. Description Abb. Description Abb. Description

CAGR Compound annual growth rate EPS Earnings per share P/B Price-to-book value

CFO Cash from operations EV Enterprise value P/E Price-earnings ratio

CFROI Cash flow return on investment FCF Free cash flow PEG P/E ratio divided by growth in EPS

DCF Discounted cash flow FFO Funds from operations ROE Return on equity

EBITDA Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization IBD Interest-bearing debt ROIC Return on invested capital


Research Weekly 13


TERMINATED since 24/02/2010









FRANCE TELECOM (FTE FP)







GDF SUEZ (GSZ FP)









GENERAL ELECTRIC CO (GE US)








GENERAL MILLS (GIS US)








GILEAD SCIENCES (GILD US)









HENKEL PREFERRED (HEN3 GY)











ING GROEP (INGA NA)






JPMORGAN CHASE & CO (JPM US)











KPN NV (KPN NA)













KRAFT FOODS (KFT US)





LLOYDS BANKING GROUP (LLOY LN)










LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON (MC FP)




MIRVAC GROUP (MGR AU)






NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK (NAB AU)










RESTRICTED since 15/12/2010

NOVARTIS (NOVN VX)







PFIZER (PFE US)




PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL (PM US)



Research Weekly 14















PSP SWISS PROPERTY (PSPN SW)
















ROCHE (GENUSSSCHEINE) (ROG VX)





ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND (RBS LN)









ROYAL DUTCH SHELL-A (RDSA NA)







SAB MILLER (SAB LN)










SAINT-GOBAIN S.A. (SGO FP)






SANOFI (SAN FP)



RESTRICTED since 30/08/2010



STOCKLAND (SGP AU)








TELEFONICA SA (TEF SM)





TESCO (TSCO LN)






TSMC (2330 TT)







UNICREDIT (UCG IM)

HOLD since 03/08/2010 VIMPEL-COMMUNICATIONS (VIP US) HOLD since 06/10/2010










VODAFONE (VOD LN)












VOLKSWAGEN PREFERRED (VOW3 GY)







WAL-MART (WMT US)








ZURICH FINANCIAL SERVICES (ZURN VX)



Research Weekly 15








BUY since 09/08/2010 Fundamental and/or long-term research reports are not regularly produced for(SAINT-GOBAIN S.A.). The Global Research department reserves the right toterminate coverage at short notice. Please contact your Relationship Manager for thespecific risks of investing in securities of these companies. As at the end of the preceding month, Credit Suisse beneficially owned 1% or moreof a class of common equity securities of (ROCHE (GENUSSSCHEINE),UNICREDIT, VOLKSWAGEN PREFERRED, ZURICH FINANCIAL SERVICES). For the following disclosures, references to Credit Suisse include all of thesubsidiaries and affiliates of Credit Suisse AG, the Swiss bank, operating under itsInvestment Banking division. The subject issuer (ABB, ABBOTT LABORATORIES, ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV,AT&T INC, BAXTER INTERNATIONAL, BRASIL FOODS ADR, BRITISHAMERICAN TOBACCO, CIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT, DAIMLER, DANONE,ENEL SPA, FRANCE TELECOM, GDF SUEZ, GENERAL ELECTRIC CO,GENERAL MILLS, GILEAD SCIENCES, HENKEL PREFERRED, ING GROEP,JPMORGAN CHASE & CO, KPN NV, KRAFT FOODS, LLOYDS BANKINGGROUP, LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK, NOVARTIS, PFIZER, PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL, ROCHE(GENUSSSCHEINE), ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND, ROYAL DUTCH SHELL-A, SAB MILLER, SANOFI, TELEFONICA SA, TESCO, TSMC, UNICREDIT, VIMPEL-COMMUNICATIONS , VODAFONE , VOLKSWAGEN PREFERRED, WAL-MART, ZURICH FINANCIAL SERVICES) currently is, or was during the 12-month period preceding the date of distribution of this report, a client of Credit Suisse. Credit Suisse provided investment banking services to the subject company (ABB,ABBOTT LABORATORIES, ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV, AT&T INC, BAXTERINTERNATIONAL, BRASIL FOODS ADR, BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO,DAIMLER, ENEL SPA, FRANCE TELECOM, GDF SUEZ, GENERAL ELECTRICCO, GENERAL MILLS, GILEAD SCIENCES, HENKEL PREFERRED, ING GROEP,JPMORGAN CHASE & CO, KPN NV, KRAFT FOODS, LLOYDS BANKINGGROUP, LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON, NATIONAL AUSTRALIABANK, NOVARTIS, PFIZER, PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL, ROCHE(GENUSSSCHEINE), ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND, ROYAL DUTCH SHELL-A, SAB MILLER, SANOFI, TELEFONICA SA, UNICREDIT, VIMPEL-COMMUNICATIONS , VODAFONE , VOLKSWAGEN PREFERRED, WAL-MART, ZURICH FINANCIAL SERVICES) within the past 12 months. Credit Suisse provided non-investment banking services, which may include Salesand Trading services, to the subject issuer (ABB, ABBOTT LABORATORIES, AT&T INC, BAXTER INTERNATIONAL, BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO, CIEFINANCIERE RICHEMONT, DAIMLER, DANONE, ENEL SPA, FRANCETELECOM, GDF SUEZ, GENERAL ELECTRIC CO, GENERAL MILLS, INGGROEP, JPMORGAN CHASE & CO, LLOYDS BANKING GROUP, LVMH MOETHENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK, NOVARTIS,PFIZER, PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL, ROCHE (GENUSSSCHEINE),ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND, TELEFONICA SA, TESCO, TSMC, UNICREDIT,VIMPEL-COMMUNICATIONS , VOLKSWAGEN PREFERRED, WAL-MART) within the past 12 months. Credit Suisse has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for thesubject issuer (ABB, ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV, AT&T INC, BAXTERINTERNATIONAL, CIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT, ENEL SPA, FRANCETELECOM, GENERAL ELECTRIC CO, GENERAL MILLS, GILEAD SCIENCES, ING GROEP, JPMORGAN CHASE & CO, KPN NV, KRAFT FOODS, LLOYDSBANKING GROUP, LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON, NATIONALAUSTRALIA BANK, NOVARTIS, PFIZER, PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL,ROCHE (GENUSSSCHEINE), ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND, ROYAL DUTCHSHELL-A, SANOFI, TELEFONICA SA, UNICREDIT, WAL-MART, ZURICHFINANCIAL SERVICES) within the past three years. Credit Suisse has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for thesubject issuer (ABB, ENEL SPA, FRANCE TELECOM, GENERAL ELECTRIC CO,GILEAD SCIENCES, ING GROEP, JPMORGAN CHASE & CO, LLOYDSBANKING GROUP, LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON, NATIONALAUSTRALIA BANK, PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL, ROYAL BANK OFSCOTLAND, UNICREDIT, WAL-MART, ZURICH FINANCIAL SERVICES) within thepast 12 months. Credit Suisse has received investment banking related compensation from thesubject issuer (ABB, AT&T INC, BAXTER INTERNATIONAL, BRASIL FOODS ADR,DAIMLER, ENEL SPA, FRANCE TELECOM, GDF SUEZ, GENERAL ELECTRICCO, GENERAL MILLS, GILEAD SCIENCES, ING GROEP, JPMORGAN CHASE &

CO, KPN NV, KRAFT FOODS, LLOYDS BANKING GROUP, LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK, NOVARTIS, PFIZER, PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL, ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND, ROYAL DUTCH SHELL-A, SANOFI, TELEFONICA SA, UNICREDIT, VIMPEL-COMMUNICATIONS , WAL-MART, ZURICH FINANCIAL SERVICES) within the past 12 months. Credit Suisse has received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services from the subject issuer (ABB, AT&T INC, BAXTER INTERNATIONAL, BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO, DAIMLER, DANONE, ENEL SPA, FRANCE TELECOM, GDF SUEZ, GENERAL ELECTRIC CO, GENERAL MILLS, ING GROEP, JPMORGAN CHASE & CO, LLOYDS BANKING GROUP, LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK, NOVARTIS, PFIZER, PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL, ROCHE (GENUSSSCHEINE), ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND, TELEFONICA SA, TESCO, UNICREDIT, VIMPEL-COMMUNICATIONS , VOLKSWAGEN PREFERRED, WAL-MART) within the past 12 months. Credit Suisse expects to receive or intends to seek investment banking related compensation from the subject issuer (ABB, ABBOTT LABORATORIES, ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV, AT&T INC, BAXTER INTERNATIONAL, BRASIL FOODS ADR, BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO, DAIMLER, DANONE, ENEL SPA, FRANCE TELECOM, GDF SUEZ, GENERAL ELECTRIC CO, GENERAL MILLS, GILEAD SCIENCES, HENKEL PREFERRED, ING GROEP, JPMORGAN CHASE & CO, KPN NV, KRAFT FOODS, LLOYDS BANKING GROUP, LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON, MIRVAC GROUP, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK, NOVARTIS, PFIZER, PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL, ROCHE (GENUSSSCHEINE), ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND, ROYAL DUTCH SHELL-A, SAB MILLER, SAINT-GOBAIN S.A., SANOFI, TELEFONICA SA, TSMC, UNICREDIT, VIMPEL-COMMUNICATIONS , VODAFONE , VOLKSWAGEN PREFERRED, WAL-MART, ZURICH FINANCIAL SERVICES) within the next three months. As at the date of this report, Credit Suisse acts as a market maker or liquidity provider in the securities of the subject issuer (ABBOTT LABORATORIES, AT&T INC, BAXTER INTERNATIONAL, BRASIL FOODS ADR, GENERAL ELECTRIC CO, GENERAL MILLS, GILEAD SCIENCES, ING GROEP, JPMORGAN CHASE & CO, KRAFT FOODS, NOVARTIS, PFIZER, PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL, TELEFONICA SA, WAL-MART). Credit Suisse holds a trading position in the subject issuer (ABB, ABBOTT LABORATORIES, ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV, AT&T INC, BAXTER INTERNATIONAL, BRASIL FOODS ADR, BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO, CIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT, DAIMLER, DANONE, ENEL SPA, FRANCE TELECOM, GDF SUEZ, GENERAL ELECTRIC CO, GENERAL MILLS, GILEAD SCIENCES, HENKEL PREFERRED, ING GROEP, JPMORGAN CHASE & CO, KPN NV, KRAFT FOODS, LLOYDS BANKING GROUP, LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON, MIRVAC GROUP, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK, NOVARTIS, PFIZER, PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL, PSP SWISS PROPERTY, ROCHE (GENUSSSCHEINE), ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND, ROYAL DUTCH SHELL-A, SAB MILLER, SAINT-GOBAIN S.A., SANOFI, STOCKLAND, TELEFONICA SA, TESCO, TSMC, UNICREDIT, VIMPEL-COMMUNICATIONS , VODAFONE , VOLKSWAGEN PREFERRED, WAL-MART, ZURICH FINANCIAL SERVICES).

Additional disclosures for the following jurisdictions Hong Kong: Other than any interests held by the analyst and/or associates as disclosed in this report, Credit Suisse Hong Kong Branch does not hold any disclosable interests. United Kingdom: For fixed income disclosure information for clients of Credit Suisse (UK) Limited and Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Limited, please call +41 44 333 33 99. For further information, including disclosures with respect to any other issuers, please refer to the Credit Suisse Global Research Disclosure site at: http://www.credit-suisse.com/research/disclaimer

Guide to analysis

Equity rating allocation as of 03/11/2011 Overall Investment banking interests only

BUY 47.28% 47.63%HOLD 46.56% 45.68%SELL 5.16% 5.55%RESTRICTED 1.00% 1.14% Relative stock performance At the stock level, the selection takes into account the relative attractiveness of individual shares versus the sector, market position, growth prospects, balance-sheet structure and valuation. The sector and country recommendations are “overweight,”


Research Weekly 16

“neutral”, and “underweight” and are assigned according to relative performance against the respective regional and global benchmark indices. Absolute stock performance The stock recommendations are BUY, HOLD and SELL and are dependent on the expected absolute performance of the individual stocks, generally on a 6-12 months horizon based on the following criteria: BUY: 10% or greater increase in absolute share price HOLD: variation between -10% and +10% in absolute share price SELL: 10% or more decrease in absolute share price RESTRICTED: In certain circumstances, internal and external regulations

exclude certain types of communications, including e.g. aninvestment recommendation during the course of Credit Suisseengagement in an investment banking transaction.

TERMINATED: Research coverage has been concluded. Absolute bond recommendations The bond recommendations are based fundamentally on forecasts for total returns versus the respective benchmark on a 3–6 month horizon and are defined as follows: BUY: Expectation that the bond issue will outperform its specified

benchmark HOLD: Expectation that the bond issue will perform in line with the

specified benchmark SELL: Expectation that the bond issue will underperform its specified

benchmark RESTRICTED: In certain circumstances, internal and external regulations

exclude certain types of communications, including e.g. aninvestment recommendation during the course of Credit Suisseengagement in an investment banking transaction.

Credit Suisse HOLT With respect to the analysis in this report based on the HOLT(tm) methodology, Credit Suisse certifies that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the HOLT methodology and (2) no part of the Firm's compensation was, is, or will be directly related to the specific views disclosed in this report. The Credit Suisse HOLT methodology does not assign ratings to a security. It is an analytical tool that involves use of a set of proprietary quantitative algorithms and warranted value calculations, collectively called the Credit Suisse HOLT valuation model, that are consistently applied to all the companies included in its database. Third-party data (including consensus earnings estimates) are systematically translated into a number of default variables and incorporated into the algorithms available in the Credit Suisse HOLT valuation model. The source financial statement, pricing, and earnings data provided by outside data vendors are subject to quality control and may also be adjusted to more closely measure the underlying economics of firm performance. These adjustments provide consistency when analyzing a single company across time, or analyzing multiple companies across industries or national borders. The default scenario that is produced by the Credit Suisse HOLT valuation model establishes the baseline valuation for a security, and a user then may adjust the default variables to produce alternative scenarios, any of which could occur. The Credit Suisse HOLT methodology does not assign a price target to a security. The default scenario that is produced by the Credit Suisse HOLT valuation model establishes a warranted price for a security, and as the third-party data are updated, the warranted price may also change. The default variables may also be adjusted to produce alternative warranted prices, any of which could occur. Additional information about the Credit Suisse HOLT methodology is available on request. CFROI(r), CFROE, HOLT, HOLTfolio, HOLTSelect, HS60, HS40, ValueSearch, AggreGator, Signal Flag and “Powered by HOLT” are trademarks or registered trademarks of Credit Suisse or its affiliates in the United States and other countries. HOLT is a corporate performance and valuation advisory service of Credit Suisse. For technical research Where recommendation tables are mentioned in the report, “Close” is the latest closing price quoted on the exchange. “MT” denotes the rating for the medium-term trend (3–6 months outlook). “ST” denotes the short-term trend (3–6 weeks outlook). The ratings are “+” for a positive outlook (price likely to rise), “0” for neutral (no big price changes expected) and “–” for a negative outlook (price likely to fall). Outperform in the column “Rel perf” denotes the expected performance of the stocks relative to the benchmark. The “Comment” column includes the latest advice from the analyst. In the column “Recom” the date is listed when the stock was recommended for purchase (opening purchase). “P&L” gives the profit or loss that has accrued since the purchase recommendation was given. For a short introduction to technical analysis, please refer to Technical Analysis Explained at: https://www.credit-suisse.com/legal/pb_research/technical_tutorial_en.pdf

Global disclaimer / important information

References in this report to Credit Suisse include subsidiaries and affiliates. For more information on our structure, please use the following link: http://www.credit-suisse.com/who_we_are/en/ The information and opinions expressed in this report were produced by the Global Research department of the Private Banking division at Credit Suisse as of the date of writing and are subject to change without notice. Views expressed in respect of a particular stock in this report may be different from, or inconsistent with, the observations and views of the Credit Suisse Research department of Division Investment Banking due to the differences in evaluation criteria. The report is published solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or an invitation by, or on behalf of, Credit Suisse to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction. It has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Although the information has been obtained from and is based upon sources that Credit Suisse believes to be reliable, no representation is made that the information is accurate or complete. Credit Suisse does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use of this report. The price and value of investments mentioned and any income that might accrue may fluctuate and may rise or fall. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to individual circumstances, or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation to any specific investor. Any reference to past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any products mentioned in this document. Alternative investments, derivative or structured products are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to investors who are capable of understanding and assuming all the risks involved. Investments in emerging markets are speculative and considerably more volatile than investments in established markets. Risks include but are not necessarily limited to: political risks; economic risks; credit risks; currency risks; and market risks. In jurisdictions where Credit Suisse is not already registered or licensed to trade in securities, transactions will only be effected in accordance with applicable securities legislation, which will vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction and may require that the trade be made in accordance with applicable exemptions from registration or licensing requirements. Before entering into any transaction, investors should consider the suitability of the transaction to individual circumstances and objectives. Credit Suisse recommends that investors independently assess, with a professional financial advisor, the specific financial risks as well as legal, regulatory, credit, tax and accounting consequences. A Credit Suisse company may, to the extent permitted by law, participate or invest in other financing transactions with the issuer of the securities referred to herein, perform services or solicit business from such issuers, and/or have a position or effect transactions in the securities or options thereof.

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Research Weekly 17

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