The2015ElNiño'simpactsonGhanaiancocoahouseholds’

livelihoods-therolesofadap?veprepara?onandagronomic

knowledgetobolsterresiliencetoclimateshocks.

Researchingadapta/oninvulnerablecommuni/es–thecaseofWest

Africancocoasmallholders

VictoriaMaguire-Rajpaul

ECOLIMITS

Introduc/on

SupervisorsConnieMcDermo9,YadvinderMalhi,andMarkHironsECOLIMITStacklesecologicallimitsofpovertyalleviaGoninsmallholderagroforestry

CocoasmallholdersinGhanaandCôted’Ivoire(whoproduce>60%world’scocoa)HowpovertyandinsGtuGonsinfluencecocoasmallholders’drought-adaptaGonWhichfactorsimpedeorenablecocoasmallholders’responsetodrought?

Percep/onsofclimateandadapta/on

Howclimateandclimatevariabilityareperceivedvariesbetweenpeople.HowadapGvepracGcesareperceivedvariesbetweenpeople.

PracGcingadaptaGonandconceptualisingadaptaGoncanvary.

Image:M.Hirons

17interviews&2focusgroupsin6villages

InCôted’Ivoirefocusgroups,observaGonsand17interviewsin6villages5villagesaroundGagnoa1villagebyUNESCOBiosphereReserve,ParkTaï

Vulnerablepopula/onPeoplewithfewassets,li9leeducaGon,andwithoutaccesstocreditDependentoncocoafor70-100%income(NGamoahandAfrane,2008)

Vulnerabletocommodityprices’volaGlity(CombesandGuillaumont,2002)

Vulnerablepopula/onfacingsevereclimateshock

ElNiño-induceddroughtsimpedereliableculGvaGonofrain-fedcropsacrossthetropics(Da9&Hoogeveen2003)

Dependentonrainfall(almostnoonewithanirrigaGonsystem)ExposedandsensiGvetoerraGcweatherandclimate-relatedextremes

LimitedadapGvecapabiliGestodealwithhazardousevents

Cocoasuitability2013vs.2050

Climatechangethreatenscocoa

Nowvulnerabilitycompoundedbyclimateshocks,risingtemperatures,anderraGcrains.Howeverwhencoping,manyofthesecocoafarmersdidnotconsiderclimatechangeseparately,ifatall.AsPoulio9e,Smit,&Westerhoff(2009)observedwithvulnerableBangladeshivillagers.

Percep/onsofclimateandadapta/on

Howclimatevariabilityisperceivedvariesbetweenpeople.HowadapGvepracGcesareperceivedvariesbetweenpeople.

PracGcingadaptaGonandconceptualisingadaptaGoncanvary.

Percep/ons

HowfarmersperceivetheadaptaGontheydoontheirfarmsmayvaryfrommynarrowly-academicadaptaGonperspecGve.

Percep/ons

HowfarmersperceivetheadaptaGontheydoontheirfarmsmayvaryfrommyacademicadaptaGonperspecGve.

Percep/ons

HowfarmersperceivetheadaptaGontheydoontheirfarmsmayvaryfrommyacademicadaptaGonperspecGve.

Respondandadaptresourcefully

Exceedsadap/vecapacity

Empathe/candcontext-specificques/ons

Incocoacontext,IandtheECOLIMITSteamexplainedwhatwemeanby:o  reacGveadaptaGon,o  anGcipatoryadaptaGon,ando  copingasashort-termresponsetovariability.

Usingavarietyoftechniquesthroughouttheproject,wediscussed:o  variableweather,o  extremeweather,ando  climateshocks.

FocusgroupsonElNiñodrought’seffects

Weather Cocoa Oilpalm Food(staple)crops Vegetables

Aug‘16

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan‘17

Feb

Mar

Adapta/on≠transforma/on

MostadaptaGonisincrementalandfamiliar(Katesetal.,2012)

o  synonymssuchas“change”,“makingachange”,“doingafarmtaskdifferently”tousual

o  anecdoteso  examplesfromneighbouringfarms

o  exampleswithhistoricalprecedent

Infarmers’terms

o  farmmanagementchangesactuallydone;

o  ifperceivethosechangesaseffecGveorfeasible;

o  ifdeemthosechangesenoughforfutureweatherextremes;

o  ifbelievesufficientifsimilarextendeddroughtstruck.

“Asfortheweather,thereisli2leanindividualcandoaboutit”.

Agencyandselfpercep/on

Somebelievetheyholdli9leagencyand

humansonearthorchestratedbyanomnipotentGod

Sincesomethinkli9lecanbedonetomiGgaterisk,difficulttoexplaintheirownadaptaGonstrategies(Barbieretal.,2009).

Adapta/on:agamblewithspiritualforces

Shouldnotbearrogant(Chester,2005;Barbieretal.,2009;Adgeretal.,2012).

Religious-adherencecanheightenexposureandsensiGvitytohazards(Schipper,2010)

andcanevenbeapotenGalformaladaptaGon.

Adapta/on-beliefdichotomy

>60%farmersinterviewedthisOctober‘temporarily’divergedfromworldviewof“God’splan”asdesGnybyimplemenGngadapGvechanges.

Carriedout‘goodagriculturalpracGces’toalleviatedroughtimpactswhilebelievinginanomnipotentgod(GyeNyame)decidingall.

Conformedtoparallelandcontradictorybeliefsystemstocopewithdrought.

Unconsciousor‘notclimate’adapta/on

AdapGvechangesmade,butnotinresponsetoweathervariability.

e.g.instructedtoplantmoreshadetreese.g.bredsnailsbecauseofaperceiveddeclineinsoilferGlity,notbecauseofperceivedchangesinclimate.

Mertzetal.(2009)alsoobservedthisadaptaGonphenomenonwherefewagriculturalchangesmadecouldbedirectlya9ributedtoclimatevariability.

Takeaways

o  Knowthesystem,people,andculturesasbestyoucan

o  FindoutdifferingpercepGons

o  Expecttheunexpected

o  BepreparedtoshiqyourtheoreGcalframing

o  BesensiGvetovulnerabiliGeswhendesigningtheresearchandineachinterview

Extendeddryseason’simpacton2015-2016’smaincropcocoayield?

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Don'tknow

50%increaseormore

Upto50%increase

Nochange

Upto50%decrease

50%decreaseormore

Totalfailure

No.ofcocoahouseholds

ENSOimpactoncocoayield

Realis/c,local-leveladap/vestrategies

o  Smallholders‘voices’heardincocoagovernance(Webber&Labaste,2010;Abbey,Tomlinson,&Branston,2016).

o  Elucidatecocoasmallholders’pressingandrecurrentvulnerabiliGes

o  theirsourcesofstrengthandadap/vecapaci/esneededtosustainlivelihoodsandavoidmaladaptaGon.

o  Farmer-relevantadap/vechangestocomplementagronomic,ecological,andotherscienGficrecommendaGons.

Iacknowledgeandthank

MysupervisorsECOLIMITSteamTouton,Côted’Ivoire&GhanaNCRC,GhanaLondonInsGtuteofZoologyESRC,UKNERC,UKMarieCurieFellowshipEnvironmentalChangeInsGtuteWolfsonCollege,Oxford